mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on May 13, 2019 12:49:17 GMT -5
Finally looks like we have an exciting top 5. 2 new songs, 2 songs that were already juggernauts last week, and all the old stuff finally getting pushed back. And with Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber likely to break into the top 5 next week, maybe the charts will finally be interesting to calculate again for the next few weeks. Please keep the new music coming.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 13, 2019 12:52:03 GMT -5
Formatting my year end this way honestly takes a lot of time for me, and starting next week, I’m gonna be working an internship over the summer. I doubt I’ll have the time to keep doing it this way. I’m still gonna be doing the year end projections, but I’m probably just gonna copy-paste it from my notes. If I have time, I’ll still color code it. I’ll probably start formatting it this way again after August when the internship ends. Have you tried making an Excel spreadsheet? Once you have the format set, all you’d have to do each week is adjust the point totals and hit sort. Would save you a lot of work. If you're good at Excel, you can even use conditional formatting to color-code the tracks based on rank.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 13, 2019 12:53:26 GMT -5
Finally looks like we have an exciting top 5. 2 new songs, 2 songs that were already juggernauts last week, and all the old stuff finally getting pushed back. And with Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber likely to break into the top 5 next week, maybe the charts will finally be interesting to calculate again for the next few weeks. Please keep the new music coming. We need more than 3 songs to flush out the top 10 and see some real action. And I don't expect the Logic/Eminem track to even be top 20 next week.
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on May 13, 2019 12:59:49 GMT -5
Is Without Me most likely going to be the #1 song on the Year End. If so that’s weird. I always just considered her the girl from Closer but here we are.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on May 13, 2019 20:01:08 GMT -5
Is Without Me most likely going to be the #1 song on the Year End. If so that’s weird. I always just considered her the girl from Closer but here we are. Unless "Old Town Road" has enough points to dethrone "Without Me" and becomes the YE #1.
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on May 13, 2019 23:25:14 GMT -5
It’s really starting to look like Close Friends is gonna make the Year End. Well at least this year is more interesting than last year.
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korbel16
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Post by korbel16 on May 14, 2019 2:31:06 GMT -5
It’s really starting to look like Close Friends is gonna make the Year End. Well at least this year is more interesting than last year. I’m... confused.. why isn’t it recurrent ?
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on May 14, 2019 4:17:20 GMT -5
It’s really starting to look like Close Friends is gonna make the Year End. Well at least this year is more interesting than last year. I’m... confused.. why isn’t it recurrent ? Say it's the same case as "El Perdon" back in 2015, but "Close Friends" peaked within Top 40.
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on May 14, 2019 6:23:12 GMT -5
Y'all sleeping on sunflower's chances, it totally has a shot at dethroning Without Me.
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on May 14, 2019 7:06:34 GMT -5
5/18 UPDATE WOOT!
Locked: None officially, I adjusted my cutoff. Sorry Love Lies, you may be screwed. Added: Con Calma
1 Without Me 2 Sunflower 3 thank u, next 4 Happier 5 SICKO MODE 6 7 Rings 7 High Hopes 8 Wow. 9 Girls Like You 10 Eastside 11 Drip Too Hard 12 Shallow 13 Going Bad 14 Better (+2) 15 ZEZE (-1) 16 Better Now (-1) 17 Middle Child (+2) 18 Youngblood (-1) 19 Old Town Road (+2) 20 Money (-2) 21 MIA (-1) 22 Please Me (+3) 23 Lucid Dreams (-1) 24 Sucker (+7) 25 Mo Bamba (-2) 26 a lot 27 Sweet But Psycho 28 Dancing With a Stranger (+1) 29 Wake Up In The Sky (-5) 30 Thotiana 31 Be Alright (+1) 32 Close To Me (+1) 33 Taki Taki (-5) 34 You Say 35 Break Up (+1) 36 Beautiful Crazy (-1) 37 I Like It 38 Leave Me Alone 39 Breathin 40 Look Back At It 41 Murder On My Mind 42 Envy Me (+1) 43 Baby Shark (-1) 44 When The Party's Over (+3) 45 Trip (-1) 46 Swervin 47 Tequila (-2)
Estimated Cutoff - 1,600
48 Talk (Weeks Away - 1) 49 Love Lies 50 Close Friends (Weeks Away - 2) 51 Bury a Friend (Weeks Away - 1) 52 Pure Water (Weeks Away - 2) 53 Beautiful 54 Speechless 55 AIWFCIY 56 This is It 57 Natural
Redzone Cutoff - 1,250
59 Bad Guy (Weeks Away - 2) 60 Here Tonight (Weeks Away - 6) 65 Mixed Personalities (Weeks Away - 9) 66 Make It Sweet (Weeks Away - 9) 69 Robbery (Weeks Away - 9) 70 Con Calma (Weeks Away - 5)
Tracking Cutoff - 1,000
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on May 14, 2019 9:13:59 GMT -5
Newly Locked: Close Friends (with 11/24 only), Talk, Bury a Friend
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 14, 2019 13:20:56 GMT -5
Y'all sleeping on sunflower's chances, it totally has a shot at dethroning Without Me. Agreed. It would need to mostly remain above Without Me and chart as many weeks overall to have a chance to do so (I assume both would be candidates to get to 52 weeks charted at this point).
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 14, 2019 18:03:52 GMT -5
My version of Billboard year-end predictions through the May 18, 2019 chart.
I believe next week's chart will be the mid-point of the Billboard calendar year! And every song in the top 14 of the year is still on the chart! Even if Old Town Road drops to #2 next week it'll still move up 3 or 4 positions on the year-end list. If it stays #1, not improbable, it will reach the top 15 of the year. Me! make the top 100 of the year on its 3rd week on the chart, particularly impressive when its first week was at #100.
(The fine print: As usual, based on my modified inverse points system, with bonus points for multi-week runs at #1, #2 and #3. The top 100 are listed as are any songs still on the chart and >=100 points. Triangles indicated song is still charting. First week included is Dec 1, 2018 chart.)
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 15, 2019 10:56:51 GMT -5
Side note: It looks like the eventual cutoff point for making the top 100 of 2019 on my chart will be around 1100 points. I guesstimated that might be the cutoff, since last year the cutoff was about 1000, and I've modified my scoring system slightly from last year. In examining my guesses to the actual results I found I was understating long-lived low-charting hits such as I Like Me Better, and overstating songs that climbed high in the last few weeks of the year. To compensate, I added 10 pts for each week that songs were on the chart. It doesn't make a huge difference on big hits, but it will help slow burners like You Say.
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Mauricio
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Post by Mauricio on May 15, 2019 17:45:06 GMT -5
"Bad guy" is doing much better than I thought and It isn't even on the top 80 on overall radio.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on May 17, 2019 21:42:50 GMT -5
May 18, 2019 YE Projections (25/52)
Locked: When the Party’s Over Striking distance: Pure Water Getting close: Mixed Personalities
On: Me, Look What God Gave Her, Night Shift Off: What Makes You Country, Bad, Saturday Nights
Old Town Road jumps into the top 10, while Eastside falls to 10 and Girls Like You falls out altogether.
Fell off this week: YoungBlood Projected spot: #39
1. Without Me-Halsey (+4,235) = 2. Sunflower-Post Malone & Swae Lee (+3,985) = 3. Thank U, Next-Ariana Grande (+3,501) = 4. Happier*-Marshmello & Bastille (+3,385) = 5. Sicko Mode*-Travis Scott (+3,314) = 6. High Hopes-Panic! At the Disco (+3,117) = 7. 7 Rings-Ariana Grande (+3,048) = 8. Old Town Road-Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus (+2,616.75) +5 9. Wow-Post Malone (+2,610) = 10. Eastside*-Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid (+2,574) -2 11. Girls Like You*-Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B (+2,470) -1 12. Drip Too Hard-Lil Baby & Gunna (+2,350.5) -1 13. Shallow-Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper (+2,319) -1 14. Going Bad-Meek Mill ft. Drake (+2,270) = 15. Better-Khalid (+2,059) = 16. Better Now*-Post Malone (1,897.5) = 17. Zeze-Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset (1,882.5) = 18. Middle Child-J. Cole (+1,877) +2 19. YoungBlood*-5 Seconds of Summer (1,876) -1 20. Money-Cardi B (1,854) -1 21. Mía-Bad Bunny ft. Drake (1,696) = 22. Sweet but Psycho-Ava Max (+1,661.75) +1 23. A Lot-21 Savage (+1,646.5) -1 24. Be Alright-Dean Lewis (+1,574.25) = 25. Dancing With a Stranger-Sam Smith & Normani (+1,562.5) +6 26. Close to Me-Ellie Goulding & Diplo ft. Swae Lee (+1,556.25) -1 27. Thotiana-Blueface (+1,537) = 28. You Say-Lauren Daigle (+1,527.5) = 29. Lucid Dreams*-Juice WRLD (1,487) -3 30. Please Me-Cardi B & Bruno Mars (+1,474) +3 31. Beautiful Crazy-Luke Combs (+1,462.25) +3 32. Wake Up in the Sky-Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black (1,461.5) -3 33. Mo Bamba-Sheck Wes (1,458.5) -3 34. Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I’m Bored-Ariana Grande (+1,454) +1 35. Taki Taki-DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B (1,406) -3 36. Sucker-Jonas Brothers (+1,344) +3 37. Look Back at It-A Boogie wit da Hoodie (+1,333) -1 38. I Like It*-Cardi B, J Balvin & Bad Bunny (1,226.5) -1 39. Leave Me Alone-Flipp Dinero (1,209) -1 40. Envy Me-Calboy (+1,202.25) = 41. Murder on my Mind-YNW Melly (+1,187) +1 42. Baby Shark-Pinkfong (+1,181.25) -1 43. Swervin-A Boogie wit da Hoodie ft. 6ix9ine (+1,111.75) -1 44. Breathin-Ariana Grande (1,100) -1 45. When the Party’s Over-Billie Eilish (+1,010) +1 46. Talk-Khalid (+979.5) +6 47. Bury a Friend-Billie Eilish (+957.75) +1 48. Trip*-Ella Mai (950) -3 49. Close Friends-Lil Baby (+926.25) -1 50. Tequila*-Dan+Shay (912) -3 51. Pure Water-Mustard & Migos (+901) +4 52. Love Lies*-Khalid & Normani (888.5) -3 53. This is It-Scotty McCreery (864.5) -2 54. Girl Like You-Jason Aldean (837.5) -1 55. Speechless-Dan+Shay (830) -1 56. Beautiful-Bazzi ft. Camila Cabello (823) = 57. Here Tonight-Brett Young (+779) +1 58. Backin It Up-Pardison Fontaine ft. Cardi B (747.25) -1 59. Mixed Personalities-YNW Melly ft. Kanye West (+729) +4 60. Calling My Spirit-Kodak Black (705.75) -1 61. Uproar-Lil Wayne (698.75) -1 62. Natural*-Imagine Dragons (698) -1 63. Robbery-Juice WRLD (+697.5) +6 64. Armed & Dangerous-Juice WRLD (691.5) -2 65. Bad Guy-Billie Eilish (+687) +18 66. Make it Sweet-Old Dominion (+685.5) -4 67. Ella Quiere Beber-Anuel AA & Romeo Santos (679.25) -3 68. Con Calma-Daddy Yankee & Katy Perry ft. Snow (+675) +5 69. This Feeling-The Chainsmokers & Kelsea Ballerini (669.5) -4 70. Twerk-City Girls ft. Cardi B (665.5) -4 71. Pure Cocaine-Lil Baby (660.75) -4 72. Millionaire-Chris Stapleton (658) -4 73. Sixteen-Thomas Rhett (629) -2 74. Who Do You Love-The Chainsmokers ft. 5 Seconds of Summer (+620.5) +4 75. Put a Date on It-Yo Gotti ft. Lil Baby (+613) +2 76. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart-Mark Ronson ft. Miley Cyrus (607) -4 77. Lovely-Billie Eilish & Khalid (599.5) -3 78. Eyes on You-Chase Rice (+587.25) +9 79. Act Up-City Girls (+585.75) +9 80. Burning Man-Dierks Bentley ft. Brothers Osborne (585) -5 81. Arms Around You-XXXTENTACION & Lil Pump ft. Maluma & Swae Lee (584.5) -5 82. Miss Me More-Kelsea Ballerini (+572.25) +4 83. Shot Clock-Ella Mai (+572) +1 84. Take it From Me-Jordan Davis (566.75) -5 85. Best Shot-Jimmie Allen (566.5) -5 86. Good Girl-Dustin Lynch (564.5) -5 87. Undecided-Chris Brown (563.5) -5 88. Worth It-YK Oriris (+557.5) +1 89. She Got the Best of Me-Luke Combs (530) -4 90. Me!-Taylor Swift ft. Brendon Urie (+513) NEW 91. Good as You-Kane Brown (+511.75) +4 92. Talk to Me-Tory Lanez & Rich the Kid (503.5) -2 93. Here With Me-Marshmello ft. CHVRCHES (+498.25) +6 94. Down to the Honkeytonk-Jake Owens (497.25) -3 95. Whiskey Glasses-Morgan Wallen (+492.75) +5 96. Girls Need Love-Summer Walker & Drake (+488.5) +2 97. Look What God Gave Her-Thomas Rhett (+467.25) NEW 98. You-Jacquees (464.5) -6 99. No Stylist-French Montana ft. Drake (462.5) -6 100. Night Shift-Jon Pardi (+455.5) NEW
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on May 17, 2019 22:09:18 GMT -5
So, what I said earlier in the week about the top 10 finally being exciting may not actually be true. If I Can’t Have You and Homicide scored way fewer points than I was expecting, and Me lost more than half it’s points from the previous week. That’s not a good sign for any of those songs going forward.
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on May 17, 2019 22:15:47 GMT -5
Yes at WTPO most likely making the year end! It’s looking like Billie is going to have at least 3 songs on the YE and all of them are great.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 17, 2019 22:44:45 GMT -5
Yes at WTPO most likely making the year end! It’s looking like Billie is going to have at least 3 songs on the YE and all of them are great. I mean pretty much 90% of Billie Eilish songs are great so a 3 for 3 ratio isn't that surprising Stoked for When The Party's Over though I can't believe it actually managed to pull it off. I wish You Should See Me In A Crown wasn't snubbed though
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on May 18, 2019 0:01:36 GMT -5
I’ll also say that based on these predictions that this year is more interesting than last year. Now quality wise we’ll have to wait til we see all 100.
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fhas
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Post by fhas on May 18, 2019 12:39:13 GMT -5
May 4, 2019 - 24/52 weeks (46.15%)Based on chart performance on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart dated Nov. 24, 2018, to Nov. 16, 2019.Locked last week:---> Murder On My Mind (YNW Melly) ---> Swervin (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie feat. 6ix9ine) ---> Tequila (Dan + Shay) ---> Sucker (Jonas Brothers) Locked this week:---> No song locked this week. Added this week:---> when the party's over (Billie Eilish --- #48 this week) ---> Close Friends (Lil Baby & Gunna --- #53 this week) ---> Talk (Khalid --- #58 this week) ---> Pure Water (Mustard & Migos --- #59 this week) Estimated Cutoff ---> 180,000 points (margin of error: 7% --- 167,400-192,600) *I think the song at #100 will be around 180k points, but it's possible that it finishes with 167.4k-192.6k{ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (CLICK HERE TO SHOW): Billboard year starts on Dec. 1 and the Nov. 24 chart is not counted}
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fhas
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Post by fhas on May 18, 2019 12:41:08 GMT -5
I hope to have time to update the May 18 chart asap.
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on May 18, 2019 12:43:39 GMT -5
So Tequila is gonna have to rely on Billboard counting the 11-24 chart if it wants to repeat this year. Here’s hoping it does repeat. Although I’ll take a big pass on Swervin and Murder On My Mind.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 18, 2019 13:20:10 GMT -5
I hope to have time to update the May 18 chart asap. Based on your schema, Old Town Road is probably going to be over 500K, or in the top 10 of the year already, between #5 & #10.
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on May 18, 2019 16:20:22 GMT -5
It took me about half an hour to work out that I was missing "Tequila", but I got there eventually, so here's the updated playlist.
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fhas
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Post by fhas on May 18, 2019 20:41:30 GMT -5
May 18, 2019 - 26/52 weeks (50.00%)Based on chart performance on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart dated Nov. 24, 2018, to Nov. 16, 2019.Locked last week:---> when the party's over (Billie Eilish) Locked this week:---> Talk (Khalid) ---> bury a friend (Billie Eilish) ---> Close Friend (Lil Baby & Gunna) Added this week:---> Here Tonight (Brett Young --- #60 this week) ---> Mixed Personalities (YNW Melly feat. Kanye West --- #61 this week) ---> bad guy (Billie Eilish --- #64 this week) Estimated Cutoff ---> 180,000 points (margin of error: 7% --- 167,400-192,600) *I think the song at #100 will be around 180k points, but it's possible that it finishes with 167.4k-192.6k{ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (CLICK HERE TO SHOW): Billboard year starts on Dec. 1 and the Nov. 24 chart is not counted}
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on May 18, 2019 20:46:36 GMT -5
So Close Friends is pulling an El Perdon. Also I won’t mind when Pure Water locks. It’s just a flexing song but I like the beat and Migos flow well.
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fhas
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Post by fhas on May 18, 2019 20:53:55 GMT -5
Last Year - After 26 weeks:
1. Perfect 1,007,310 (Hot 100 rank: #9 --- Final rank: #2) 2. God's Plan 947,700 (Hot 100 rank: #3 --- Final rank: #1) 3. Havana 888,110 (Hot 100 rank: #24 --- Final rank: #4) 4. rockstar 817,690 (Hot 100 rank: #13 --- Final rank: #5) 5. Meant To Be 614,580 (Hot 100 rank: #5 --- Final rank: #3) 6. Finesse 558,300 (Hot 100 rank: #31 --- Final rank: #14) 7. Thunder 535,910 (Hot 100 rank: OUT --- Final rank: #22) 8. New Rules 503,310 (Hot 100 rank: #32 --- Final rank: #16) 9. Bad At Love 444,440 (Hot 100 rank: OUT --- Final rank: #27) 10. Let You Down 420,420 (Hot 100 rank: OUT --- Final rank: #29)
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on May 18, 2019 20:57:33 GMT -5
So Close Friends is pulling an El Perdon. Also I won’t mind when Pure Water locks. It’s just a flexing song but I like beat and Migos flow well. But has a peak within the Top 40 (#29).
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 18, 2019 21:47:02 GMT -5
^Actually, it debuted at #28, but that was on the Hot 100 dated 10/20/2018 which is not part of the 2019 year-end chart weeks.
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