toby went recurrent on bb?

[smack]

Toby should've been ranked about 12 or 13, but according to today's update, he's recurrent!

[northerncountry]

Toby went recurrent because of the 2nd of the 2 recurrent rules. You have to be at #15 or above in audience and spins, or you will go recurrent. Toby was actually #11 based on audience, but he was at #13 in spins on the BB chart last week, and this week he would have been somewhere between #17 and #20 - so he was pulled.

[Marv]

Does he have a shot of finishing at Billie for the year in BB with this single?

[smack]

He was #8 last week. How'd u get 11 and 13? It doesn't seem like he should drop 8 places, he's been dropping slow. I think he went 1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-6-7-8, so you'd think he'd be maybe 10-12 in rank.

northerncountry said:

Toby went recurrent because of the 2nd of the 2 recurrent rules.  You have to be at #15 or above in audience and spins, or you will go recurrent.  Toby was actually #11 based on audience, but he was at #13 in spins on the BB chart last week, and this week he would have been somewhere between #17 and #20 - so he was pulled.

[northerncountry]

Toby was at #8 on the 10/15 BB chart, but they also rank the song based on spins (even though this isn't the chart position). Based on spins, Toby was at #13.

Normally this doesn't matter, except when it comes to the recurrency rules, which say that if a song falls below #15 in audience or spins, the song will be removed from the chart.

Based on the audience numbers that he had this week, Toby would have come in at #11 on the 10/22 chart. However, his spin total put him below #15 based on spins. Because of this, he was taken off the chart. I'm not exactly sure where he was as the recurrent chart that I see only shows the audience numbers and not the spins, but based on his decreases on Mediabase and the increases for the songs below him, I approximated that the song probably came out somewhere around #17 or #18 in spins, as he would have been passed by Gary Allan, Neal McCoy, Kenny Chesney, Joe Nichols, and probably himself as Big Blue Note should have had more spins than Toby. These were the songs that were immediately behind him in spins last week.

[Zazie]

marv said:

Does he have a shot of finishing at Billie for the year in BB with this single?

The full top 10 run was: 7-6-4-2-2, then 6 weeks at #1, then 3-3-3-3-6-7-8 and then off. Will that be enough to contend for #1 on BB? I think so.

1. Assuming they use audience numbers to determine #1, not spin totals, it matters that TK did post exceptionally high audience numbers during his weeks at #1. He had the 5 biggest weeks, and 6 of the top 7, of the year (credit NC for the info). Craig Morgan's best #1 week wasn't as good as Toby's worst #1 week.

2. Because the recurrent rules were different, Craig charted for 4 weeks he wouldn't have gotten under the new rules. Will BB adjust for the rules change?

3. If they do adjust, then Toby will probably get it, even though Craig will still have more weeks on. (Craig also loses 4 low-ranking chart weeks that were in the 2004 chart year. Won't matter much.) If they don't adjust, then Craig has quite a few more weeks in the top 20, and that might make up for Toby's higher peaks.

Nobody else is a contender.

[Marv]

I know that Craig Morgan is a lock to finish at #1 for the year in R&R, with Rascal Flatts (BTBR), Josh Gracin, Sugarland and Kenny Chesney (ABM) finishing in the top five, but his chances at finishing at #1 in BB are MUCH better.

[Zazie]

marv said:

I know that Craig Morgan is a lock to finish at #1 for the year in R&R, with Rascal Flatts (BTBR), Josh Gracin, Sugarland and Kenny Chesney (ABM) finishing in the top five, but his chances at finishing at #1 in BB are MUCH better.

A few things to consider, Marv, as you are so well-versed in chart information:

1. I don't have the year-to-date R&R panel numbers, just the whole-panel MB numbers, but it does look as if BTBR is going to be very close to Morgan's song, once you add in the December 2004 spins. I suppose Morgan will win, but it's going to be very close and I don't think it's a lock.

2. I keep thinking somebody will keep Anything But Mine out of #5. If Some Beach doesn't do it, then Fast Cars and Freedom will. If FCAF doesn't, then Toby's song will. Maybe they'll all pass him. ABM might wind up #5, but I think he is not the favorite to do so.

3. You are right that Toby has a better chance on BB, because time-of-song-release isn't nearly as much of a factor on BB. Recurrent spins aren't counted, and that's why a late-year release can still be #1. Live Like You Were Dying is a perfect example -- #1 on BB, not on R&R.