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Post by Daryl the Beryl on Jan 18, 2015 7:51:46 GMT -5
7 3 LUKE BRYAN I See You 7151 6198 953 53.009 4 4 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 7429 7178 251 52.855
Saw that coming
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jan 18, 2015 8:13:06 GMT -5
What a mess...
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jan 18, 2015 10:37:56 GMT -5
7 3 LUKE BRYAN I See You 7151 6198 953 53.009 4 4 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 7429 7178 251 52.855 Saw that coming Makes my point, it's a mans world in country radio. Isn't this Luke's 6th single? I've been seeing his rise on the charts. Who does he think he is, Garth?
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Jan 18, 2015 11:32:08 GMT -5
7 3 LUKE BRYAN I See You 7151 6198 953 53.009 4 4 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 7429 7178 251 52.855 Saw that coming Makes my point, it's a mans world in country radio. Isn't this Luke's 6th single? I've been seeing his rise on the charts. Who does he think he is, Garth? Luke is the format's superstar (at the moment). He probably could go 8 deep from "Crash My Party" and still have singles rise that fast (not that he will). That being said, I still feel like this has a shot at #1. It's just gonna take longer. Carrie's issue, if there is one, is that "Something in the Water" is very spiritual so that may have a lot to do with why it didn't hit #1 yet (or sooner).
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jan 18, 2015 11:45:50 GMT -5
Makes my point, it's a mans world in country radio. Isn't this Luke's 6th single? I've been seeing his rise on the charts. Who does he think he is, Garth? Luke is the format's superstar (at the moment). He probably could go 8 deep from "Crash My Party" and still have singles rise that fast (not that he will). That being said, I still feel like this has a shot at #1. It's just gonna take longer. Carrie's issue, if there is one, is that "Something in the Water" is very spiritual so that may have a lot to do with why it didn't hit #1 yet (or sooner). I disagree. This song's initial reception and its continued sales success says otherwise. I know now that airplay and sales aren't exactly related due to the manipulation that occurs at radio. But if your point is that spirituality and religion have anything to do with this song's stunted airplay run, I disagree. Chart manipulation is to blame solely, in my humble opinion.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 18, 2015 12:07:20 GMT -5
I think the best thing Arista can do now for Carrie is try to wait out Luke and hope he is not at #1 for more than a week. FGL is not a threat at the moment since they have had the brakes put on them with some loss in spins/audience today and still think Carrie can hit #1 if they just time it right now and go for the push in 2 weeks time after Luke or Eric is at #1 and try to unseat one of them from the top. It's obvious Capitol is wanting to get Luke to #1 ASAP so they have Luke off the airwaves for a short while then come back with a lead single from his next album which will obviously smash for him since he is the genre's hot ticket item right now in Country Music. If I were Arista, wait out Luke/Eric and go for the push and then after the song is done, release "Little Toy Guns" to radio in late February/early March, so that can peak by Summer (July time period) and then have a new single from a new album to follow in September and have the new album in stores by Thanksgiving 2015.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2015 12:14:51 GMT -5
This song still isn't struggling, though. It's just flat-out getting beat by a more popular artist/song combo (Luke Bryan).
The only thing that would've made for a smoother run is if Carrie had stayed ahead of label-mates Brad and Kenny. There's no way for any of us to be sure, but it definitely seemed like SITW had an unusual slowdown just before it entered the top 10. That allowed Brad and Kenny to climb ahead in the pecking order, and it essentially made it almost impossible for SITW to overtake them as they all rose through the top 10. And that created problems, because the other artists that they were competing with (Tim, Eric, Luke, FGL) are all superstars as well, and none of them are on Sony.
Any other artist's song, if it were in SITW's place, would probably be doing almost exactly the same. There is simply no other artist out there right now who could go up against Luke Bryan--radio is just that enthused about Luke and his music, and it doesn't really matter what he releases.
If Carrie's song had been released a week or two earlier, we likely wouldn't even be having this discussion. Instead it probably would have been Brad or Kenny stuck in this seemingly-impossible spot (behind the big hit "Talladega", and being chased down by the latest uberly-popular Luke Bryan single), and Carrie would have already reached #1 with ease.
This has just been incredibly crappy timing here at the end. Could SITW still get to #1? Sure, but a lot will have to go its way. Kenny will almost certainly start falling in the next day or two, but I expect Eric to be #1 next weekend, and then it looks like it will be Luke Bryan after that. Can Carrie wait them out for the next 2+ weeks? SITW would have to wait until the week ending February 8 to be #1...and that's the best-case scenario. It'll be very difficult to navigate to the top. Because Carrie is already at pretty high airplay levels, she'll need to try to spread her gains out over a 3-week period. And that's not even considering the possibility that Luke Bryan could make things more challenging by spending multiple weeks at the top, nor does this scenario account for still one other artist coming up in the rear-view mirror: Florida Georgia Line.
So Carrie is really just caught between a rock and a hard place here.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Jan 18, 2015 13:40:50 GMT -5
Luke is the format's superstar (at the moment). He probably could go 8 deep from "Crash My Party" and still have singles rise that fast (not that he will). That being said, I still feel like this has a shot at #1. It's just gonna take longer. Carrie's issue, if there is one, is that "Something in the Water" is very spiritual so that may have a lot to do with why it didn't hit #1 yet (or sooner). I disagree. This song's initial reception and its continued sales success says otherwise. I know now that airplay and sales aren't exactly related due to the manipulation that occurs at radio. But if your point is that spirituality and religion have anything to do with this song's stunted airplay run, I disagree. Chart manipulation is to blame solely, in my humble opinion. My implication is it may have contributed to the song's SLOWER RISE not that it won't eventually get there. if sales and airplay were ever equal, then songs that hit the Top 10 would ALL at least be Gold or more. Quite a few don't so I suspect sales (w/r/t radio has little to no effect in how they do anything there - though airplay CLEARLY affects sales) means nothing here. It's just a slower moving song for many factors. An initial reception can wane over time. There are too many to number instances in this. It's clear you're looking WAY too far into something here for some slight or bias against your favorite star when (like award shows) I don't think there's any bias against her from Radio, award voters or industry.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jan 18, 2015 14:00:57 GMT -5
It's clear you're looking WAY too far into something here for some slight or bias against your favorite star when (like award shows) I don't think there's any bias against her from Radio, award voters or industry. It really doesn't take looking too far to see the self-reinforcing bias in the current country radio landscape against solo women, and to deny that bias strikes me as denying reality. One could debate (and people are debating) the extent to which that bias has impacted "Something in the Water," and I have already argued above the particular way in which I think it has. But it seems to me that you, not Carrie's super-fans, are the one trying to make this debate about Carrie and Carrie alone. ETA: Just to address this notion that getting a high level of airplay is in and of itself a sign that gender bias didn't impact this song...if the dynamics associated with gender bias are a difference maker between this song making #1 as opposed to songs with less measurable impact from male leads making #1, then it seems to me that gender bias is still in evidence, just to less of a degree than in the case of less-established female talent.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Jan 18, 2015 14:31:02 GMT -5
Yes, you're 100% right there is a bias towards solo women in country music. The exception to this (the only exception, sorry Miranda) is Carrie Underwood.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jan 18, 2015 14:57:35 GMT -5
I disagree. This song's initial reception and its continued sales success says otherwise. I know now that airplay and sales aren't exactly related due to the manipulation that occurs at radio. But if your point is that spirituality and religion have anything to do with this song's stunted airplay run, I disagree. Chart manipulation is to blame solely, in my humble opinion. My implication is it may have contributed to the song's SLOWER RISE not that it won't eventually get there. if sales and airplay were ever equal, then songs that hit the Top 10 would ALL at least be Gold or more. Quite a few don't so I suspect sales (w/r/t radio has little to no effect in how they do anything there - though airplay CLEARLY affects sales) means nothing here. It's just a slower moving song for many factors. An initial reception can wane over time. There are too many to number instances in this. It's clear you're looking WAY too far into something here for some slight or bias against your favorite star when (like award shows) I don't think there's any bias against her from Radio, award voters or industry. My post really didn't even touch on the whole gender thing, I was solely addressing your point that SITW's spirituality had/has something to do with its interrupted (for lack of a better word) chart run. I disagree, because if that were the case, its sales and overall popularity would also likely be adversely impacted, and that doesn't seem to be the case.
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Post by RobbyFlorida on Jan 18, 2015 15:10:31 GMT -5
Unfortunately, the Radio AirPlay charts not reflecting the fans' popularity factor evidenced by sales or just plain popularity of a song has been going on almost 25 years if not more.
EVIDENCE:
Reba's all time popular song is "Fancy". Ask someone, "What the first song of Reba come to their mind?" They usually say, "Fancy".
Singles off same album as Fancy":
"You Lie" Billboard #1 "Rumor Has It" Billboard #2 "Fallin' Out of Love" Billboard #2 "Fancy" Billboard #8
Some of the other songs which charted higher than "Fancy" those people on here that aren't Reba fans may have forgotten them. But most non Reba fans know Fancy.
Therefore, my point is even though I LOVE Carrie's "Something In The Water" and I want it to go #1 even if it doesn't. Most likely as in Reba's example, in 25 years we may remember this song more than other #1's that she's charted in the past or in the future.
So AirPlay Charts unfortunately don't always reflect the highest sales or popularity. I wish they would though.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Jan 18, 2015 15:11:30 GMT -5
My implication is it may have contributed to the song's SLOWER RISE not that it won't eventually get there. if sales and airplay were ever equal, then songs that hit the Top 10 would ALL at least be Gold or more. Quite a few don't so I suspect sales (w/r/t radio has little to no effect in how they do anything there - though airplay CLEARLY affects sales) means nothing here. It's just a slower moving song for many factors. An initial reception can wane over time. There are too many to number instances in this. It's clear you're looking WAY too far into something here for some slight or bias against your favorite star when (like award shows) I don't think there's any bias against her from Radio, award voters or industry. My post really didn't even touch on the whole gender thing, I was solely addressing your point that SITW's spirituality had/has something to do with its interrupted (for lack of a better word) chart run. I disagree, because if that were the case, its sales and overall popularity would also likely be adversely impacted, and that doesn't seem to be the case. Other than sales, what do you consider, "overall popularity"? There are many people in this thread alone who are Carrie fans or enjoy her music, who have stated the spiritual reason is why they don't' like the song (myself included).
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jan 18, 2015 15:23:22 GMT -5
My post really didn't even touch on the whole gender thing, I was solely addressing your point that SITW's spirituality had/has something to do with its interrupted (for lack of a better word) chart run. I disagree, because if that were the case, its sales and overall popularity would also likely be adversely impacted, and that doesn't seem to be the case. Other than sales, what do you consider, "overall popularity"? There are many people in this thread alone who are Carrie fans or enjoy her music, who have stated the spiritual reason is why they don't' like the song (myself included). YouTube video views, its original call-out numbers, its consistency on the iTunes chart (I know that's sales, but it has sold well consistently, not just a few big weeks here and there), its #1 streak on GAC (fan voted), its domination on the 'Taste of Country' monthly chart; voted #1 for multiple weeks, its Grammy nomination, that's just off the top of my head... I'm sure the same could be said for many other songs, but that's what I mean when I say "overall popularity". I'm sure there's a handful of people who don't like the song, due to its religious message and such, but the overall positive reception of this song, I think, is undeniable. And my point was never to say that there's a relation between popularity and airplay, I think that was established a few pages back. I was only contesting that its spirituality is the reason for its interrupted chart run, that's all.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 18, 2015 15:30:08 GMT -5
It's clear you're looking WAY too far into something here for some slight or bias against your favorite star when (like award shows) I don't think there's any bias against her from Radio, award voters or industry. It really doesn't take looking too far to see the self-reinforcing bias in the current country radio landscape against solo women, and to deny that bias strikes me as denying reality. One could debate (and people are debating) the extent to which that bias has impacted "Something in the Water," and I have already argued above the particular way in which I think it has. But it seems to me that you, not Carrie's super-fans, are the one trying to make this debate about Carrie and Carrie alone. ETA: Just to address this notion that getting a high level of airplay is in and of itself a sign that gender bias didn't impact this song...if the dynamics associated with gender bias are a difference maker between this song making #1 as opposed to songs with less measurable impact from male leads making #1, then it seems to me that gender bias is still in evidence, just to less of a degree than in the case of less-established female talent.I don't think that's a good argument. It's entirely possible that Underwood's radio chart career has benefited from the presence of sex discrimination against women in general. There's a classic style of defending against accusations of various kinds of discrimination by picking one or two members of the group in question and treating them extra-well. "We don't have any discrimination here. Look at how much we play Carrie Underwood." I've seen businesses do this (successfully, all too often) all my life. And there wind up being a few women in high positions (what academics used to call Queen Bees) with equally high paychecks... no, not all women face discrimination in the same way. This would not be Underwood's fault, I hasten to add -- she didn't ask to be a representative of her sex. But just because you identify a pattern doesn't mean that the pattern falls in the same way upon all members of the group. I don't think the way country radio treats Lee Ann Womack or Brandy Clark will be the way it treats Carrie Underwood. And I did read your complex analysis of sales vs. airplay issues posted earlier on the page. I mostly understood it. But I just don't see how you can build a case for comparing the sales chart performance of a single released from a Greatest Hits package to a release from an album of all-new material. (Nobody owned the material from Kenny's album. Tons of people owned a lot of the tracks from the Carrie album.) Nor do I see how you can oompare a result on an all-genre chart to one on a country-only chart. It seems to me that those factors are enormous, killing the comparison from the get-go, and your analysis of differential treatment based on fatigue is not going to survive the impossibility of comparing apples to oranges in the first place. On the other hand, country radio charts are beyond any possible defense, and I don't want to put myself in the position of being "shocked" that chart manipulation has taken place. Again. And maybe it did work to Underwood's disadvantage, even if the arguments are hard for me to swallow.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Jan 18, 2015 15:57:41 GMT -5
You act like country radio isn't playing it though. It would be one thing to use your argument if this wasn't in the top 10 or top 5, but it totally is. Radio is playing it more than almost every song out there so I have no clue what you're trying to say here. A top 3 hit is no way, "holding it back." My bad, maybe not holding it back, but it seems SITW should have got there before Kenny. If it doesn't reach the top, and I'm hoping it does, it'll be because of Kenny, and Tim's multi week stay at the top. Good song, but all those weeks, I don't think so. Jmo It really makes no sense for Kenny to hit #1 and not Carrie considering her sales and streams are higher. You can tout a top 3-4 peak for Carrie, and that's respectable, but the point is Carrie consistently has higher sales and streams than most of her competitors, yet they keep having #1 radio hits while she is starting to get pushed aside. I'm including "Somethin' Bad" in that, too.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 18, 2015 16:03:03 GMT -5
Will this be #2 on Billboard next week? If it gets to #2, I have a feeling her label may call it a winner and just let it drop. The competition is way too stiff and I seriously don't see this holding up against Kenny, Eric, Luke, and soon enough, FGL, too. I disagree. This song's initial reception and its continued sales success says otherwise. I know now that airplay and sales aren't exactly related due to the manipulation that occurs at radio. But if your point is that spirituality and religion have anything to do with this song's stunted airplay run, I disagree. Chart manipulation is to blame solely, in my humble opinion. My implication is it may have contributed to the song's SLOWER RISE not that it won't eventually get there. if sales and airplay were ever equal, then songs that hit the Top 10 would ALL at least be Gold or more. Quite a few don't so I suspect sales (w/r/t radio has little to no effect in how they do anything there - though airplay CLEARLY affects sales) means nothing here. It's just a slower moving song for many factors. An initial reception can wane over time. There are too many to number instances in this. It's clear you're looking WAY too far into something here for some slight or bias against your favorite star when (like award shows) I don't think there's any bias against her from Radio, award voters or industry. lol. My bad, maybe not holding it back, but it seems SITW should have got there before Kenny. If it doesn't reach the top, and I'm hoping it does, it'll be because of Kenny, and Tim's multi week stay at the top. Good song, but all those weeks, I don't think so. Jmo It really makes no sense for Kenny to hit #1 and not Carrie considering her sales and streams are higher. You can tout a top 3-4 peak for Carrie, and that's respectable, but the point is Carrie consistently has higher sales and streams than most of her competitors, yet they keep having #1 radio hits while she is starting to get pushed aside. I'm including "Somethin' Bad" in that, too. You're complaining about, and combining, two entirely separate charts here. Your argument that "Kenny shouldn't hit #1 before Carrie because she has higher sales and streams" literally means nothing to the Country Airplay chart. If you're referring to the chart it does mean something to (the Hot Country Songs chart), then you shouldn't be too upset since she's currently sitting at #1 on that chart for her sixth non-consecutive week. Sales and streaming don't matter to the Country Airplay chart.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Jan 18, 2015 16:06:10 GMT -5
My bad, maybe not holding it back, but it seems SITW should have got there before Kenny. If it doesn't reach the top, and I'm hoping it does, it'll be because of Kenny, and Tim's multi week stay at the top. Good song, but all those weeks, I don't think so. Jmo It really makes no sense for Kenny to hit #1 and not Carrie considering her sales and streams are higher. You can tout a top 3-4 peak for Carrie, and that's respectable, but the point is Carrie consistently has higher sales and streams than most of her competitors, yet they keep having #1 radio hits while she is starting to get pushed aside. I'm including "Somethin' Bad" in that, too. No one sells like Carrie for the most part. So, yes, there are going to be many, many, songs that reach #1 that don't sell as well as Carrie. I still don't see what point you're trying to make.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 18, 2015 16:54:13 GMT -5
Unfortunately, the Radio AirPlay charts not reflecting the fans' popularity factor evidenced by sales or just plain popularity of a song has been going on almost 25 years if not more. EVIDENCE: Reba's all time popular song is "Fancy". Ask someone, "What the first song of Reba come to their mind?" They usually say, "Fancy". Singles off same album as Fancy": "You Lie" Billboard #1 "Rumor Has It" Billboard #2 "Fallin' Out of Love" Billboard #2 "Fancy" Billboard #8 Some of the other songs which charted higher than "Fancy" those people on here that aren't Reba fans may have forgotten them. But most non Reba fans know Fancy. Therefore, my point is even though I LOVE Carrie's "Something In The Water" and I want it to go #1 even if it doesn't. Most likely as in Reba's example, in 25 years we may remember this song more than other #1's that she's charted in the past or in the future. So AirPlay Charts unfortunately don't always reflect the highest sales or popularity. I wish they would though. Sorry, not EVIDENCE. Maybe people didn't like Fancy as much back when it was on the charts. Maybe its storyline shocked people back in the 1700's when it charted. And then maybe opinions changed over time. How do you know that it was so popular when it was first released? What percentage of people vote for Fancy, anyway? Did that happen in one poll or many? Did people see a list and choose Fancy from it, or just pick Fancy because that's an easy name to remember? Are you measuring country fans, or all people? (I for one am more interested in the opinions of country music lovers than in those of the pop music fan who has vaguely heard of Reba.) I don't see why any one chart, by itself, is supposed to tell us everything about a song's popularity. Now we have a sales chart, an airplay chart, a streaming chart -- take your pick. There are faults in the various charts, and they are widely known (and in some cases disputed). You are never going to persuade me that comparing sales of a song from a Greatest Hits album to a song from an ordinary album is a fair way of looking at numbers. Do you not see that purchasers will make different choices if they already own most of the songs on the GH package?
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Jan 18, 2015 17:04:05 GMT -5
You're complaining about, and combining, two entirely separate charts here. Your argument that "Kenny shouldn't hit #1 before Carrie because she has higher sales and streams" literally means nothing to the Country Airplay chart. If you're referring to the chart it does mean something to (the Hot Country Songs chart), then you shouldn't be too upset since she's currently sitting at #1 on that chart for her sixth non-consecutive week. Sales and streaming don't matter to the Country Airplay chart. Well in theory radio would follow those other sources more (or at least align with them). Acts like Luke Bryan and Florida Georgia Line get big sales and streams, and guess what, they go to #1. Carrie has been having those stats for awhile now, yet her songs aren't as big at radio. How is that not a valid thing to question? Look at how other formats get driven by those things. Songs like "Blurred Lines" and "Happy" took off at radio after selling big. It really makes no sense for Kenny to hit #1 and not Carrie considering her sales and streams are higher. You can tout a top 3-4 peak for Carrie, and that's respectable, but the point is Carrie consistently has higher sales and streams than most of her competitors, yet they keep having #1 radio hits while she is starting to get pushed aside. I'm including "Somethin' Bad" in that, too. No one sells like Carrie for the most part. So, yes, there are going to be many, many, songs that reach #1 that don't sell as well as Carrie. I still don't see what point you're trying to make. If Carrie sells more and has more streams than other artists/songs, why is their airplay better even when Carrie has a song out? I don't see how you aren't getting that as a valid question. Considering everyone talks about labels "getting" songs to #1, we all know radio is corrupted and thus fairly irrelevant.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Jan 18, 2015 17:10:25 GMT -5
You're complaining about, and combining, two entirely separate charts here. Your argument that "Kenny shouldn't hit #1 before Carrie because she has higher sales and streams" literally means nothing to the Country Airplay chart. If you're referring to the chart it does mean something to (the Hot Country Songs chart), then you shouldn't be too upset since she's currently sitting at #1 on that chart for her sixth non-consecutive week. Sales and streaming don't matter to the Country Airplay chart. Well in theory radio would follow those other sources more (or at least align with them). Acts like Luke Bryan and Florida Georgia Line get big sales and streams, and guess what, they go to #1. Carrie has been having those stats for awhile now, yet her songs aren't as big at radio. How is that not a valid thing to question? Look at how other formats get driven by those things. Songs like "Blurred Lines" and "Happy" took off at radio after selling big. No one sells like Carrie for the most part. So, yes, there are going to be many, many, songs that reach #1 that don't sell as well as Carrie. I still don't see what point you're trying to make. If Carrie sells more and has more streams than other artists/songs, why is their airplay better even when Carrie has a song out? I don't see how you aren't getting that as a valid question. Considering everyone talks about labels "getting" songs to #1, we all know radio is corrupted and thus fairly irrelevant. I'm trying not to be rude here, but what in the world are you talking about? Her LAST album every song went #1 or #2 and this STILL has a chance at #1. You're saying radio treats her unfair, but all the evidence points to that they don't.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jan 18, 2015 17:14:00 GMT -5
I don't think that's a good argument. It's entirely possible that Underwood's radio chart career has benefited from the presence of sex discrimination against women in general. There's a classic style of defending against accusations of various kinds of discrimination by picking one or two members of the group in question and treating them extra-well. "We don't have any discrimination here. Look at how much we play Carrie Underwood." I've seen businesses do this (successfully, all too often) all my life. And there wind up being a few women in high positions (what academics used to call Queen Bees) with equally high paychecks... no, not all women face discrimination in the same way. This would not be Underwood's fault, I hasten to add -- she didn't ask to be a representative of her sex. But just because you identify a pattern doesn't mean that the pattern falls in the same way upon all members of the group. I don't think the way country radio treats Lee Ann Womack or Brandy Clark will be the way it treats Carrie Underwood. Sure, it's possible that the dynamics that you describe have played a part. The reason that I don't believe that such dynamics are the primary or even a significant driver of Carrie's radio career is that her singles have consistently tested very well on callout charts like Callout America and Radio Feedback. In a late 2013 discussion about the dearth of women on country radio, Dallas WPLX Music Director Smokey Rivers reinforced this point:Moreover, one of the take-home points from this look at the fortunes of women at country radio was that, over the past decade or so, solo females who came to country radio with pre-existing fanbases stood a far better chance (58%) of getting at least one hit (i.e., making the top-20) than those who did not (13%). And so I do not think Carrie Underwood has been the beneficiary of "token female" treatment by country radio so much as she is the beneficiary of coming to country radio with a fanbase that country radio didn't want to deny and then presenting music that over the years has consistently tested well among country radio's core listeners. That core has of course undergone a significant change over the past two years. But "Something in the Water" has tested quite well nonetheless, and sold quite well as noted. But I just don't see how you can build a case for comparing the sales chart performance of a single released from a Greatest Hits package to a release from an album of all-new material. (Nobody owned the material from Kenny's album. Tons of people owned a lot of the tracks from the Carrie album.) Sure, but despite the fact that there are only two new songs, it took Carrie's first greatest hits album just two weeks to outsell Brad's full album of original material (which was released three and a half months before), and four weeks to outsell Tim's full album of original material (which was released nearly three months before). It will take a few months for Carrie's greatest hits album to outsell Kenny's full album of original material (which was released two and a half months before), admittedly, but Carrie's set outsold Kenny's by nearly 10K this past week. So people are not only buying "Something in the Water" as a song, they are buying the album that it's on, despite the lack of new material and despite the ability to pick & choose from the songs on it. But, you're going to say, sales of the greatest hits album are being driven by her career of hits, whereas these other albums are having to "prove" themselves with each hit. Fine. Let's put away sales and look at streams, a more neutral active interest indicator between a single from a greatest hits set and single from a full studio album. "Something in the Water" also also been outperforming the chart competition around it on that metric by a healthy margin. For example, "Something in the Water" has over three times as many Spotify streams as "'Til It's Gone" (over ten million versus around 3.2 million). "Something in the Water" has been the top-streamed song among its current chart competition ever since "Leave the Night On" went recurrent. And just to reiterate here, the argument about sales & streaming is not that the airplay chart should just reproduce the rankings on those other charts. It is that sales & streaming are indicators of active listener interest, that these indicators generally correlate with listener passion (as has been the case with "Something in the Water," which callout surveys indicated is a song that drove high listener passion), that listener passion is what has generally driven female singles up the charts because of an inherent disadvantage among passive listeners who favor familiar voices, and that it was Sony's interruption of "Something in the Water"'s run at a time when passion for it was especially high that created the current situation in which it may miss #1 on the airplay charts despite having all the markings of a song that should make it there. Moreover, the fact that "Something in the Water" has seen smooth runs up the less manipulated small market charts suggests that it is in fact label interference that is getting in the way of a #1 peak on the main chart. Nor do I see how you can compare a result on an all-genre chart to one on a country-only chart. Carrie hasn't had a crossover hit since 2007's "Before He Cheats," and the Hot Christian Songs chart notwithstanding, "Something in the Water" is not a crossover hit on the Christian format yet (its audience on that format is minuscule compared to its audience on the country format at the moment). The primary exposure of this song is on country radio, so I don't think the all-genre chart versus country-only chart is an issue here. Looking at the sales success of songs like "Meanwhile Back At Mama's," "Shotgun Rider," and "Merry Go Round," I don't think the inherent disadvantage to a more traditional sound/sensibility remains on today's sales charts.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 18, 2015 17:15:52 GMT -5
You're complaining about, and combining, two entirely separate charts here. Your argument that "Kenny shouldn't hit #1 before Carrie because she has higher sales and streams" literally means nothing to the Country Airplay chart. If you're referring to the chart it does mean something to (the Hot Country Songs chart), then you shouldn't be too upset since she's currently sitting at #1 on that chart for her sixth non-consecutive week. Sales and streaming don't matter to the Country Airplay chart. Well in theory radio would follow those other sources more (or at least align with them). Acts like Luke Bryan and Florida Georgia Line get big sales and streams, and guess what, they go to #1. Carrie has been having those stats for awhile now, yet her songs aren't as big at radio. How is that not a valid thing to question? Look at how other formats get driven by those things. Songs like "Blurred Lines" and "Happy" took off at radio after selling big. Unfortunately, sales success doesn't translate to radio success. Perfect example of that? "Follow Your Arrow". It was just certified Gold (and even won Song of the Year at the CMAs) but didn't even crack the Top 40 on Country radio. Granted, that could've been because of its content, and it could've also been because of Kacey Musgraves not being one of the 2 leading ladies of the format, but it's still sufficient to the point being made: sales doesn't affect radio at all. Luke Bryan and FGL are red hot right now, as you said, but even in the midst of their red hot stages, "Country Girl (Shake it For Me)" missed #1 and "This is How We Roll" missed the top spot, too. Those both sold huge, as well. It's not just Carrie. "Something in the Water" will likely go Platinum before the first half of 2015 ends in June, and if "Little Toy Guns" is released after this (I imagine that it will be), then that'll likely sell very well, too. It sold 8k off of the CUX1 debut week alone, which is great, especially considering it's A) not a radio single and B) an unreleased song from a Greatest Hits album. Sales are sales. Streaming is streaming. Airplay is airplay. There's a chart for a combination of the three, and there's a chart for only airplay. If a song sells 3 million copies in a week and peaks at #2 on airplay, then it sells 3 million copies in a week and peaks at #2 on airplay. These 2 charts have no influence on each other and the stats for each song that send these songs onto the charts don't affect each other, either. Simple as that.
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jan 18, 2015 17:43:49 GMT -5
Well in theory radio would follow those other sources more (or at least align with them). Acts like Luke Bryan and Florida Georgia Line get big sales and streams, and guess what, they go to #1. Carrie has been having those stats for awhile now, yet her songs aren't as big at radio. How is that not a valid thing to question? Look at how other formats get driven by those things. Songs like "Blurred Lines" and "Happy" took off at radio after selling big. Unfortunately, sales success doesn't translate to radio success. Perfect example of that? "Follow Your Arrow". It was just certified Gold (and even won Song of the Year at the CMAs) but didn't even crack the Top 40 on Country radio. Granted, that could've been because of its content, and it could've also been because of Kacey Musgraves not being one of the 2 leading ladies of the format, but it's still sufficient to the point being made: sales doesn't affect radio at all. Luke Bryan and FGL are red hot right now, as you said, but even in the midst of their red hot stages, "Country Girl (Shake it For Me)" missed #1 and "This is How We Roll" missed the top spot, too. Those both sold huge, as well. It's not just Carrie. "Something in the Water" will likely go Platinum before the first half of 2015 ends in June, and if "Little Toy Guns" is released after this (I imagine that it will be), then that'll likely sell very well, too. It sold 8k off of the CUX1 debut week alone, which is great, especially considering it's A) not a radio single and B) an unreleased song from a Greatest Hits album. Sales are sales. Streaming is streaming. Airplay is airplay. There's a chart for a combination of the three, and there's a chart for only airplay. If a song sells 3 million copies in a week and peaks at #2 on airplay, then it sells 3 million copies in a week and peaks at #2 on airplay. These 2 charts have no influence on each other and the stats for each song that send these songs onto the charts don't affect each other, either. Simple as that. Song sells 3 million in a week, peaks at number 2 at radio, one doesn't effect the other? Really? That simple? Hard to believe. If it's true, radio doesn't know what it's doing or really naive or unaware. Or, you might be right.
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surfy
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Post by surfy on Jan 18, 2015 19:35:55 GMT -5
SITW is doing really well, and literally all of Carrie's singles have been a top 2 hit on country radio. So they aren't treating HER unfairly at all. IMO.
They do, however, have a gender bias (if it wasn't obvious already) but it is to a lesser degree now.
Sales and airplay are two different things. If a song is selling well, you would THINK it would be a sign that the single should be played more, but it doesn't always work that way, that's why there are two seperate charts for sales and airplay.
Even still you can't use the sales argument with this song because it is currently in top 5 on country radio, so it's not like it's being treated unfairly.
Do you guys think this will at least make it to #2?
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 19, 2015 11:28:51 GMT -5
Well Carrie gang, it looks like we may be getting our wish as Carrie is NOW tracking at #1 for this coming Sunday's Mediabase Country chart. REMEMBER though this is just a building chart so nothing is official until Sunday but hey it looks like a jump from #4 to #1 is in the cards for this coming weekend. lw tw artist / album label plays TW plays LW % change 4 1 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 19/Arista Nashville 1091 990 10.2 3 2 ERIC CHURCH Talladega EMI Nashville 1070 992 7.9 1 3 KENNY CHESNEY Til It's Gone Blue Chair/Columbia 1043 1134 -8.0 5 4 LUKE BRYAN I See You Capitol Nashville 971 906 7.2 6 5 FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE Sun Daze Republic Nashville 963 867 11.1 8 6 RANDY HOUSER Like A Cowboy Stoney Creek 810 797 1.6 10 7 THOMAS RHETT Make Me Wanna Valory 797 719 10.8 2 8 BRAD PAISLEY Perfect Storm Arista Nashville 757 1035 -26.9 11 9 JASON ALDEAN Just Gettin' Started Broken Bow 749 701 6.8 12 10 BLAKE SHELTON Lonely Tonight f/Ashley Monroe Warner Bros./WMN 727 684 6.3 Source: www.hitsdailydouble.com/media/mediabase.cgi?fmt=C1
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jan 19, 2015 11:35:18 GMT -5
I don't care if Sony goes bankrupt, they better make this happen!!! If I'm understanding correctly, judging from the chart posted above, it appears as if the label is going to do some major pushing this week to get Carrie to #1?
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 19, 2015 11:46:11 GMT -5
Ya, I feel the push is starting now, but think they will only try to top Mediabase, better then nothing and could peak at #2 if lucky if she repass Luke and be behind Eric on Billboard at #2 for next Monday. Would be awesome to be #1 on both charts but think they will aim more for Mediabase. She gained 100 spins today and passed Luke to get back to #3 so ya the push is beginning.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2015 12:42:04 GMT -5
Yes, today's gain does appear that it may be indicative of the "last week" push for SITW. Both Luke and Eric still had slightly higher gains in audience, but Carrie had the bigger gain in spins (+100 for her, +80 for Eric, +60 for Luke), and big spin gains have more of an effect on the Mediabase points system than audience gains do.
The key thing is that, since the push seems to have started on a Sunday, that correlates with the Mediabase tracking week (Sunday through Saturday) instead of the Billboard week. That makes sense, though, because it definitely seems like it will be easier for Arista Nashville to get to #1 on Mediabase than it does on Billboard. Of course, for those of us who would also like to see SITW top the Billboard Country Airplay chart, it makes frustrating sense.
It shouldn't be too difficult for Carrie to hold off Luke for one more week (given the fact that SITW will probably be the recipient of a final push this week, whereas Luke won't), and with Kenny falling below in a couple of days, that would move SITW up to #2. Carrie's close enough in spins to Eric that I think she can probably jump him on Mediabase, and that would result in the MB #1, but probably another #2 peak on Billboard, unless she can pass Eric there too (which is possible, but right now seems unlikely, mostly because Arista would have to push for 8 days, Sunday thru Sunday, and labels never seem to do that).
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Jan 19, 2015 13:09:57 GMT -5
And thus all the discussion about 'slights' and the label 'messing up' are moot. Unless, of course, the dedicated fans Carrie has deem this song a failure for not getting a Billboard #1 (if that doesn't happen). I'm happy it is hitting #1 on one of these charts. It's a strong single from Carrie and a world with her on the radio is better than a world without her on it.
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