rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jun 25, 2007 22:05:57 GMT -5
The Billboard Chart Projection can also be seen on my blog.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jun 25, 2007 22:06:23 GMT -5
I’ve been working on this chart for awhile now, and I thought I would share it with everyone. I can update it daily if there’s enough interest.
The chart basically predicts the audience a song will have on Billboard. The ratio columns (J, K, L, M) give the ratios of certain songs with respect to Mediabase and Billboard. I then take the average of the ratios and multiply it by the current Mediabase audience (column N) to predict the Billboard audience. For some songs I don’t use all the different ratios. For example, “Lost In This Moment” has ratios of .980, .900, and .963. Since the .900 ratio is much lower than the other two, I do not include it.
I usually don’t fill out the Proj. BB Aud. (Projected Billboard Audience) column until Sunday, so that column will usually be empty. The only column I update daily is the MB Aud. TW column (Mediabase Audience This Week). Currently the numbers in the BB Aud. LW (Billboard Audience Last Week) column are my predicted audience numbers from last week. Those will be updated Wednesday when the new chart is published.
I’m probably leaving a lot of things unanswered, but I’ll gladly respond to any questions that are out there. This first post is basically for me to find out if there would be any interest in a daily update of this chart.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Jun 26, 2007 11:17:41 GMT -5
Do it even if there isn't interest. Or email me it every day! I can't believe Kenny's gained two million impressions in just two days, when only one other song has gained over one million impressions.
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bigbluenote
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Post by bigbluenote on Jun 27, 2007 0:04:16 GMT -5
I'm interested! :)
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jun 27, 2007 0:17:23 GMT -5
Since the Mediabase panel appears to have changed a bit, I'll probably have to tweak my formulas. That means the projections for this week won't be as good as they usually are because of the panel change, but they will get more accurate over the next couple of weeks.
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dcowboy77
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Post by dcowboy77 on Jun 27, 2007 14:11:11 GMT -5
just have 3 suggestions:
1) the "projected bb audience", since that is really the most important column as it determines next weeks rankings, would be good if it were the next column after "weeks on".
2) sort the songs by "projected bb audience" for reason stated above.
3) have a line running across after like every 5 songs to make the lines more readable as they kinda flow together the way it reads now across.
ok....just suggestions....thx
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EmersonDrive13Rocks
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Post by EmersonDrive13Rocks on Jun 27, 2007 16:32:53 GMT -5
I'm definitely interested.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jun 28, 2007 21:00:46 GMT -5
Updated for today. Sorry for the delay, I was gone for a few days. Again, because of the Mediabase/Country Aircheck panel change, it's tough to get a feel of how some songs are moving. For example, I tweaked the formula for "Because Of You." A couple of the stations that were dropped from the Mediabase panel had that song in heavy rotation, so that it will be affected by that change more than other songs. just have 3 suggestions: 1) the "projected bb audience", since that is really the most important column as it determines next weeks rankings, would be good if it were the next column after "weeks on". 2) sort the songs by "projected bb audience" for reason stated above. 3) have a line running across after like every 5 songs to make the lines more readable as they kinda flow together the way it reads now across. ok....just suggestions....thx 1. I like having the projected BB Aud. column toward the end so I can see all the data that is going into making that projection (if that makes any sense). I see your point though, and maybe I'll change it if enough people feel strongly about that. 2. I like having the songs sorted by the current Billboard chart. That way you get a feel of how many positions a song could gain for next wee. 3. Good suggestion, I'll use that one.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Jul 1, 2007 11:42:17 GMT -5
I'm surprised to see that Kenny didn't really gain all that much. Taylor, B&D, Toby, and Dierks all gained about the same amount of audience on the chart.
Taylor is going to be taking a huge leap into the top 10. Good for her!
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Jul 4, 2007 10:28:40 GMT -5
I noticed here how Tim/Faith have gained audience with "I Need You" even though Mediabase has them without a bullet. More prove that bullets are very deceiving.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Jul 7, 2007 10:37:10 GMT -5
Thanks for updating this.
I could really care less about the race for #1. I'm more interested in "I Need You" vs. "If You're Reading This". Right now, "I Need You" is winning :)
Also interesting to note that "Because of You" has now gained more audience than "Never Wanted Nothing More" and "Everyday America" is finally getting a big boost.
I just noticed, too, that it seems the top 5 will not change next week on Billboard. The order may, but it will remain the same top 5 songs. I also wonder if Keith will be able to squeak into #1 or will he fall short again (now 3 singles in a row to reach top 10 and not go #1).
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dcowboy77
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Post by dcowboy77 on Jul 7, 2007 14:12:02 GMT -5
this could b the 1st week that your calculations get put to the test, since u started posting this chart, for determining #1 as george still has the lead on the mediabase chart....good luck lol....should b cool to watch the outcome.
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dcowboy77
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Post by dcowboy77 on Jul 8, 2007 13:45:13 GMT -5
yep looks like the chart will be rite for the #1 spot as b&r have now overtaken george on mediabase even (great call !!!)....the real close call now looks like it will be if tim & faith can get tracy for that #10 spot.
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dcowboy77
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Post by dcowboy77 on Jul 9, 2007 19:48:32 GMT -5
nice....u were rite with b&r getting #1 and t&f getting #10....congrats to u & the chart....um any early super bowl predictions as well lol....ive got colts over cowboys in a close 1 !!!
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jul 9, 2007 19:54:49 GMT -5
nice....u were rite with b&r getting #1 and t&f getting #10....congrats to u & the chart....um any early super bowl predictions as well lol....ive got colts over cowboys in a close 1 !!! Well I'm from Massachusetts, so I've got the Pats. Doesn't matter who they play. :)
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dcowboy77
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Post by dcowboy77 on Jul 11, 2007 20:39:57 GMT -5
with big&rich looking like a lock for #1 again this week it looks like the top 10 battle will be if bucky can bump tim&faith for the #10 spot.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Jul 12, 2007 11:08:12 GMT -5
Updated for today. Most songs had losses today. Yeah no kidding. Week's half over and no big gainers. Wonder what's up at radio this week. Maybe its National Play Recurrents/Gold Week.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Jul 14, 2007 16:10:05 GMT -5
Bout damn time too. Thanks. I am happy with what I see :)
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Jul 15, 2007 9:54:31 GMT -5
After a great week last week, "Because of You" has really cooled off. And you don't know how happy I am to see "I Need You" outpacing "If You're Reading This"...
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Jul 15, 2007 12:48:36 GMT -5
After a great week last week, "Because of You" has really cooled off. And you don't know how happy I am to see "I Need You" outpacing "If You're Reading This"... BOY had abysmal days mid-week with a spin count on Tuesday that was the lowest number of daily spins in almost two weeks. It's been trending back upward the past couple of days but that upward trend isn't noticeable yet because of how bad it did midweek. If the Friday and Saturday trend continue, its bullet will get back close to 300 when last week's dreadful Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are erased.
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Jul 16, 2007 18:51:47 GMT -5
Thanks but I now don't understand the Projected BB Audience gain in the last column. What time period does it represent? Updated for today. I also included my revised Billboard predictions. I'll do another update today after Hit Predictor/Chart highlights come out to order the songs correctly. Edit: The chart is now updated with the revised order of the songs.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jul 16, 2007 18:58:56 GMT -5
Thanks but I now don't understand the Projected BB Audience gain in the last column. What time period does it represent? Updated for today. I also included my revised Billboard predictions. I'll do another update today after Hit Predictor/Chart highlights come out to order the songs correctly. Edit: The chart is now updated with the revised order of the songs. I guess it's technically not the projected Billboard audience gain/loss since the Billboard week goes from Monday to Sunday, but I've found that it usually evens out by Sunday. So to answer your question, the column represents the gain/loss from Sunday to Saturday, more like Mediabase.
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Jul 16, 2007 19:27:07 GMT -5
I guess it's technically not the projected Billboard audience gain/loss since the Billboard week goes from Monday to Sunday, but I've found that it usually evens out by Sunday. So to answer your question, the column represents the gain/loss from Sunday to Saturday, more like Mediabase. Cool, so currently it reflects Sunday airplay. It seems to reinforce my belief that Reba is on a bit of an upswing after a dismal midweek last week.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Jul 16, 2007 19:45:16 GMT -5
I guess it's technically not the projected Billboard audience gain/loss since the Billboard week goes from Monday to Sunday, but I've found that it usually evens out by Sunday. So to answer your question, the column represents the gain/loss from Sunday to Saturday, more like Mediabase. The Billboard week is actually Saturday to Saturday. You'll notice that the chart closes on Sunday with Saturday's numbers.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jul 16, 2007 20:58:28 GMT -5
I guess it's technically not the projected Billboard audience gain/loss since the Billboard week goes from Monday to Sunday, but I've found that it usually evens out by Sunday. So to answer your question, the column represents the gain/loss from Sunday to Saturday, more like Mediabase. The Billboard week is actually Saturday to Saturday. You'll notice that the chart closes on Sunday with Saturday's numbers. I don't think this is true. Billboard doesn't have the same chart week as Mediabase/Aircheck. Instead, Billboard finishes up Sunday at midnight.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Jul 16, 2007 21:07:34 GMT -5
I don't know about that Zazie. The Billboard charts are dated on Saturdays. And BDS and Mediabase run the exact same with the only difference being the reporting panels, as far as I'm aware. And if it runs Sat-Sat you get the 7 day week.
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Post by somebody60 on Jul 16, 2007 21:15:07 GMT -5
I don't know about that Zazie. The Billboard charts are dated on Saturdays. And BDS and Mediabase run the exact same with the only difference being the reporting panels, as far as I'm aware. And if it runs Sat-Sat you get the 7 day week. Well, I remember on the old Billboard site (before the merge with R&R), there was a page that had a tracker where you could refresh and view the Top 3 on all the formats. The tracker would reset at midnight on Sunday (Central Time if memory serves me right). So, that means the Billboard week is from the very start of Monday to the very end of Sunday.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Jul 16, 2007 21:28:31 GMT -5
Yeah, the Real Time Tracker. That was up to the minute. So of course it would reset on Sundays. It changed every week. I'm almost positive on this one, but for kicks, I'll email Wade Jessen. :)
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EmersonDrive13Rocks
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Post by EmersonDrive13Rocks on Jul 17, 2007 0:14:34 GMT -5
Billboard charts end on Sunday at Midnight and start Monday. Monday through Sunday is 7 days.
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WamuFive
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Post by WamuFive on Jul 26, 2007 15:04:42 GMT -5
Is this where the projected BB audience is posted? I've always wondered what you were updating until, brilliant me, finally read your introduction. The light came shining through! However, for some reason the image doesn't show up in the first post of this thread. Can you see the image or is my computer just screwed up? ???
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