Billboard Hot 100 : 06/06/2015

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabse 05/21/15

1. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 191.040 (- 2.809)
2. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 183.198 (+ 1.473)
3. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 166.088 (+ 0.986)
4. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 143.507 (+ 2.137) ▲
5. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 142.968 (- 3.033) ▼
6. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 128.280 (- 1.702)
7. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 122.110 (- 2.234)
8. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 110.183 (- 2.001)
9. NATALIE LA ROSE - Somebody f/Jeremih: 88.401 (- 3.236)
10. FETTY WAP - Trap Queen: 87.305 (+ 0.087) ▲
11. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 87.247 (- 0.994) ▼
12. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/N. Minaj & Afrojack: 79.548 (+ 1.422) ▲
13. TOVE LO - Talking Body: 79.299 (+ 1.170) ▼
14. OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 71.878 (- 0.024) ▲
15. DJ SNAKE & ALUNAGEORGE - You Know You Like It: 71.574 (+ 1.661) ▲
16. ARIANA GRANDE – One Last Time: 69.682 (- 3.207) ▼
17. BILLY CURRINGTON - Don't It: 69.326 (+ 0.683) ▲
18. NICK JONAS - Chains: 68.466 (- 1.044) ▼
19. A THOUSAND HORSES - Smoke: 67.197 (+ 0.211) ▼
20. TAYLOR SWIFT - Blank Space: 64.279 (- 1.436)

FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Sippin' On Fire: 64.059 (+ 0.267)
ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 59.760 (+ 1.687)
KENNY CHESNEY - Wild Child w/Grace Potter: 56.416 (+ 0.989)
GEORGE EZRA - Budapest: 51.244 (- 0.526)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Little Toy Guns: 49.130 (+ 0.378)
EASTON CORBIN - Baby Be My Love Song: 45.817 (+ 0.830)
BLAKE SHELTON - Sangria: 45.521 (+ 0.706)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Dear Future Husband: 44.965 (+ 0.545)
ECHOSMITH - Bright: 43.232 (+ 0.201)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Girl Crush: 42.363 (+ 0.756)
RIHANNA - Bitch Better Have My Money: 39.487 (+ 0.571)
MAROON 5 - This Summer's Gonna Hurt...: 38.819 (+ 5.728)
FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 38.423 (+ 0.898)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 38.380 (+ 7.758)
NICKI MINAJ - The Night Is Still Young: 27.860 (+ 0.731)
SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 25.999 (+ 0.458)
SIA - Elastic Heart: 25.951 (+ 1.074)
RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 25.386 (+ 0.557)
PITBULL - Fun f/Chris Brown: 22.525 (- 0.065)
THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 15.751 (+ 0.045)
ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 15.157 (+ 1.100)
MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 14.315 (+ 0.960)
BRITNEY SPEARS & IGGY AZALEA - Pretty Girls: 12.951 (- 0.260)
ADAM LAMBERT - Ghost Town: 10.257 (+ 0.081)
CARLY RAE JEPSEN - I Really Like You: 9.456 (+ 0.024)
ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 4.119 (+ 0.698)
KELLY CLARKSON - Invincible: 1.768 (+ 0.229)

[wjr15]

I'm surprised Fight Song is still so low on radio. You'd think radio would be spinning this regularly seeing as the sales have done really well so far

[Kris]

Oh right it's Thursday I put the update in the old thread

[Daniel Collins]

So there's a chance that "Nasty Freestyle" would have a significant fall for this week.

[Dylan :)]

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAS.

[Mikel Echarri]

Praying for Bad Blood to be #1 next week

[rimetm]

Basically, the beat for the original version was from Bandit Gang Marco, and this freestyle wasn't intended to become this smash. Now that it's profitable, the group (or the beatmaker, I've got so little info on the original that I can't tell) claimed it on YouTube to take it down and presumably did on multiple sources of the song. Thus, to avoid further issues, T-Wayne and his team made a quick similar-sounding beat (the piano line is either the same or really similar, like Ice Ice Baby's bassline is technically not a direct copy of Under Pressure) and reuploaded the video with that version and also replaced all commercial versions of the song with it (I can confirm iTunes and Google Music).

It'll definitely drop a bit, but it's not completely helpless. The explicit version of the song alone is top 20 on iTunes already and the video is almost at 1 million and it hasn't had a full week.

(I'm happy though, because this means at least 1 song will crash out of the top 10, and considering #7-10's downward trends and #11-13 building strength, I can still hope for a 4 song coup in the top 10 )

[Deleted]

May 21, 2015 11:21:38 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

So there's a chance that "Nasty Freestyle" would have a significant fall for this week.

xD well that means D. Guetta has a good chance to make top ten now as well as for Ed to continue to slay with many weeks in top ten!

May 21, 2015 12:35:25 GMT -5 Mikel Echarri said:

Praying for Bad Blood to be #1 next week

This is how I would see it:

Kworb is predicting 352k for BB and 184k for SYA. I think it's clear that BB will be #1 in sales and not just barely.

The formula, according to the person in the year-end predictions thread, is sales/12 + airplay/10000 + streams/900

BB

Sales: 352k / 12 = 29333
Airplay: 55M / 10k = 5500
Streaming: 20M / 900 = 22222

Total: 57055

SYA

Sales: 184k / 12 = 15333
Airplay: 160M / 10k = 16000
Streaming: 21M / 900 = 23333

Total: 54666

And this was a very rough estimate for streaming for BB; it could have even more (probably not less) streams than 20M. Of course it can also resume free falling in sales while SYA (somehow) increases. In any case, it will be close! But I'm hoping for BB to get the #1 of course. It will be easier to predict towards the end of the week.

[Clauss]

How much streaming got Anaconda and Wrecking Ball when their videos were released? Maybe taylor can do something similar, worst case a 25% less than those

[Future Captain]

May 21, 2015 17:17:00 GMT -5 Clauss said:

How much streaming got Anaconda and Wrecking Ball when their videos were released? Maybe taylor can do something similar, worst case a 25% less than those

Anaconda got 32.1 Million, Wrecking Ball got 36.4 Million. Both were on Spotify though

[KeepDeanWeird]

May 21, 2015 16:33:14 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

This is how I would see it:

Kworb is predicting 352k for BB and 184k for SYA. I think it's clear that BB will be #1 in sales and not just barely.

The formula, according to the person in the year-end predictions thread, is sales/12 + airplay/10000 + streams/900

BB

Sales: 352k / 12 = 29333
Airplay: 55M / 10k = 5500
Streaming: 20M / 900 = 22222

Total: 57055

SYA

Sales: 184k / 12 = 15333
Airplay: 160M / 10k = 16000
Streaming: 21M / 900 = 23333

Total: 54666

And this was a very rough estimate for streaming for BB; it could have even more (probably not less) streams than 20M. Of course it can also resume free falling in sales while SYA (somehow) increases. In any case, it will be close! But I'm hoping for BB to get the #1 of course. It will be easier to predict towards the end of the week.[/quote]

Will Memorial Day impact BB airplay? Not only because it's 8th day, but also because holidays end up with a lot of recurrents or special programming, etc. It always seems like the updates for current, climbing tracks is lower when we get the reports the next day. It's only relevant here because the margin is certain to be close.

[Dylan :)]

So #1 will be occupied by three people (combining lead and feature) for the first half of the year..

[Deleted]

May 21, 2015 17:26:07 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

May 21, 2015 16:33:14 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

This is how I would see it:

Kworb is predicting 352k for BB and 184k for SYA. I think it's clear that BB will be #1 in sales and not just barely.

The formula, according to the person in the year-end predictions thread, is sales/12 + airplay/10000 + streams/900

BB

Sales: 352k / 12 = 29333
Airplay: 55M / 10k = 5500
Streaming: 20M / 900 = 22222

Total: 57055

SYA

Sales: 184k / 12 = 15333
Airplay: 160M / 10k = 16000
Streaming: 21M / 900 = 23333

Total: 54666

And this was a very rough estimate for streaming for BB; it could have even more (probably not less) streams than 20M. Of course it can also resume free falling in sales while SYA (somehow) increases. In any case, it will be close! But I'm hoping for BB to get the #1 of course. It will be easier to predict towards the end of the week.

Will Memorial Day impact BB airplay? Not only because it's 8th day, but also because holidays end up with a lot of recurrents or special programming, etc. It always seems like the updates for current, climbing tracks is lower when we get the reports the next day. It's only relevant here because the margin is certain to be close.

It would be the 9th or 10th day, since it had about 3M AI from before it got the deal and got like +20M. Not sure if Memorial Day will impact it though. But in any case at this rate it should have at least 50M BDS AI by Wednesday. 

The video is currently at more than 42M, which is an average of about 10M per day. It may very well pass SYA in streaming as well as sales. It's currently at about 1.75x of SYA on iTunes (all versions combined). Based on the sales/12 + airplay/10000 + streaming/900 formula, BB will have to make up about 10k-11k. Luckily SYA seems to have slowed down a bit in airplay gains (it's about fucking time!) so BB can use this to its advantage. I agree with you that it is going to be a very close race. If only BB stopped bleeding so hard on iTunes it would have a better chance :(

[Kris]

Mediabase TOP 10 22/05/15

1. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 190.854 (- 0.186)
2. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 184.873 (+ 1.675)
3. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 167.341 (+ 1.253)
4. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 146.469 (+ 2.962)
5. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 140.432 (- 2.536)
6. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 127.689 (- 0.591)
7. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 120.445 (- 1.665)
8. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 108.710 (- 1.473)
9. FETTY WAP - Trap Queen: 87.402 (+ 0.097) ▲
10. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 86.288 (- 0.959) ▲
11. NATALIE LA ROSE - Somebody f/Jeremih: 86.072 (- 2.329) ▼
12. TOVE LO - Talking Body: 81.193 (+ 1.894) ▲
13. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/N. Minaj & Afrojack: 80.966 (+ 1.418) ▼
14. DJ SNAKE & ALUNAGEORGE - You Know You Like It: 73.434 (+ 1.860) ▲
15. OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 72.790 (+ 0.912) ▼
16. BILLY CURRINGTON - Don't It: 69.841 (+ 0.515) ▲
17. A THOUSAND HORSES - Smoke: 67.466 (+ 0.269) ▲
18. NICK JONAS - Chains: 67.371 (- 1.095)
19. ARIANA GRANDE – One Last Time: 66.752 (- 2.930) ▼
20. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Sippin' On Fire: 63.872 (- 0.187) ▲

CURIOSIDADES

ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 61.817 (+ 2.057)
KENNY CHESNEY - Wild Child w/Grace Potter: 57.702 (+ 1.286)
GEORGE EZRA - Budapest: 52.035 (+ 0.791)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Little Toy Guns: 49.350 (+ 0.220)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 47.042 (+ 8.662)
BLAKE SHELTON - Sangria: 46.570 (+ 1.049)
EASTON CORBIN - Baby Be My Love Song: 46.144 (+ 0.327)
MAROON 5 - This Summer's Gonna Hurt...: 44.866 (+ 6.047)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Dear Future Husband: 44.825 (- 0.140)
ECHOSMITH - Bright: 43.936 (+ 0.704)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Girl Crush: 42.284 (- 0.079)
RIHANNA - Bitch Better Have My Money: 40.888 (+ 1.401)
FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 39.319 (+ 0.896)
NICKI MINAJ - The Night Is Still Young: 28.793 (+ 0.933)
SIA - Elastic Heart: 26.942 (+ 0.991)
SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 26.673 (+ 0.674)
RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 25.886 (+ 0.500)
PITBULL - Fun f/Chris Brown: 23.289 (+ 0.764)
ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 16.291 (+ 1.134)
THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 15.751 (=)
MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 15.257 (+ 0.942)
BRITNEY SPEARS & IGGY AZALEA - Pretty Girls: 12.754 (- 0.197)
ADAM LAMBERT - Ghost Town: 10.193 (- 0.064)
CARLY RAE JEPSEN - I Really Like You: 9.625 (+ 0.169)
ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 4.037 (- 0.082)
KELLY CLARKSON - Invincible: 1.909 (+ 0.141)

[wjr15]

These radio updates for Bad Blood are crazy. Almost Top 20 and it hasn't even been out for a week.

[Deleted]

LOL @ Thinking Out Loud returning to top 10 in airplay 

[House Lannister]

May 21, 2015 8:19:48 GMT -5 wjr15 said:

I'm surprised Fight Song is still so low on radio. You'd think radio would be spinning this regularly seeing as the sales have done really well so far

I'm not so surprised.  Keep in mind that Rachel Platten is a new artist and it's taken a while for radio DJs to spin the song onto its stations.  But it probably will start very shortly, especially after the song moved up to the top 30 this week.  It's got that summery sound that could take off and it's got a new music video as well.

For me, the big surprise is the emergence of Lean On in the top 40 despite a lack of radio play.  I wonder if MO will end up with a bigger hit for this song than she would have if they put some effort into Beg For It.

[imbondz]

Fight song is tortuously boring.

[Deleted]

Kendrick will get credit for Bad Blood on the Hot 100 next week right? Because if so then it'll obviously become his highest-peaking song to date...

[lyhom]

considering on how he got credit this week...

[Deleted]

May 22, 2015 16:41:33 GMT -5 lyhom said:

considering on how he got credit this week...

I'm surprised. I thought Billboard's rule was that the alternate version needs to account for more Hot 100 points than the original in order for the artists on the remix to get credit on the Hot 100. Considering that the remix was not available on Sunday night it is highly unlikely that this was the case on the 5/30 chart...

[josh]

Billboard said 64% of sales last week were the remix

[Ted Sweeran]

Thinking Out Loud still hanging on. The longevity.   Still can't accept that this song didn't reach number 1. All because of UF

I love See You Again but it's time for a new #1. Go Bad Blood! Besides, there are only 3 #1s this year. BS, UF and SYA.

Rooting for these songs: Hey Mama, Where Are U Now, and Photograph.

[Mikel Echarri]

Top 10 prediction

1. Bad Blood (+52)
2. See You Again (-1)
3. Trap Queen (-1)
4. Earned It (-1)
5. Shut Up And Dance (-1)
6. Want To Want Me (=)
7. Uptown Funk (-2)
8. Sugar (-1)
9. Love Me Like You Do (-1)
10. Hey Mama (+1)

[Kris]

TOP 10

1. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 187.431 (- 3.423)
2. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 186.691 (+ 1.818)
3. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 167.206 (- 0.135)
4. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 149.273 (+ 2.804)
5. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 137.822 (- 2.610)
6. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 125.588 (- 2.101)
7. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 119.828 (- 0.617)
8. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 106.337 (- 2.373)
9. FETTY WAP - Trap Queen: 87.821 (+ 0.419)
10. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 84.589 (- 1.699)
11. NATALIE LA ROSE - Somebody f/Jeremih: 83.414 (- 2.658)
12. TOVE LO - Talking Body: 82.596 (+ 1.403)
13. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/N. Minaj & Afrojack: 82.467 (+ 1.501)
14. DJ SNAKE & ALUNAGEORGE - You Know You Like It: 75.387 (+ 1.953)
15. OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 72.614 (- 0.176)
16. BILLY CURRINGTON - Don't It: 69.712 (- 0.129)
17. A THOUSAND HORSES - Smoke: 67.293 (- 0.173)
18. NICK JONAS - Chains: 66.049 (- 1.322)
19. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Sippin' On Fire: 63.944 (+ 0.072) ▲
20. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 63.531 (+ 1.714) ▲

CURIOSIDADES

ARIANA GRANDE – One Last Time: 63.430 (- 3.322) ▼
KENNY CHESNEY - Wild Child w/Grace Potter: 58.319 (+ 0.617)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 55.393 (+ 8.351)
GEORGE EZRA - Budapest: 52.344 (+ 0.309)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Little Toy Guns: 49.443 (+ 0.093)
EASTON CORBIN - Baby Be My Love Song: 47.024 (+ 0.880)
BLAKE SHELTON - Sangria: 47.021 (+ 0.451)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Dear Future Husband: 45.193 (+ 0.368)
ECHOSMITH - Bright: 44.542 (+ 0.606)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Girl Crush: 42.328 (+ 0.044)
RIHANNA - Bitch Better Have My Money: 41.116 (+ 0.228)
FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 40.307 (+ 0.988)
MAROON 5 - This Summer's Gonna Hurt...: 34.983 (- 9.883)
NICKI MINAJ - The Night Is Still Young: 29.395 (+ 0.602)
SIA - Elastic Heart: 27.640 (+ 0.698)
SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 27.346 (+ 0.673)
RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 26.473 (+ 0.587)
PITBULL - Fun f/Chris Brown: 23.909 (+ 0.620)
ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 17.530 (+ 1.239)
MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 16.363 (+ 1.106)
THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 15.751 (=)
BRITNEY SPEARS & IGGY AZALEA - Pretty Girls: 12.742 (- 0.012)
ADAM LAMBERT - Ghost Town: 10.450 (+ 0.257)
CARLY RAE JEPSEN - I Really Like You: 9.761 (+ 0.136)
ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 4.404 (+ 0.367)
SAGE THE GEMINI - Good Thing f/Nick Jonas: 2.059
KELLY CLARKSON - Invincible: 2.215 (+ 0.306)

[rimetm]

THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 15.751 (+ 0.045)

THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 15.751 (=)

THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 15.751 (=)

How is it even possible to get the same radio audience 3 days in a row? In any case, it looks like its sales are coming back, so maybe its proper run could start soon?

[therealstan123]

Why is this summer's gonna... falling like crazy? (-9.883)

[Clauss]

May 23, 2015 8:41:10 GMT -5 therealstan123 said:

Why is this summer's gonna... falling like crazy? (-9.883)

8th day rolling effect
expect the same for BB next tuesday? i can't count

[Deleted]

In my opinion, Fight song is flawless and I don't care about other people's opinion!

[Spidey]

May 22, 2015 18:02:48 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

May 22, 2015 16:41:33 GMT -5 lyhom said:

considering on how he got credit this week...

I'm surprised. I thought Billboard's rule was that the alternate version needs to account for more Hot 100 points than the original in order for the artists on the remix to get credit on the Hot 100. Considering that the remix was not available on Sunday night it is highly unlikely that this was the case on the 5/30 chart...

The remix was available on Sunday night.