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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 3, 2015 11:26:20 GMT -5
hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=297066Saturday, August 1, 2015 YOUR NEW RELEASES: ONE-DAYS SALES FORECASTSBased on very early reads, here are the first forecasts for next week's chart. Descendants Soundtrack (Disney) 14-17k albums, 15-20k SPS Saint Asonia (RCA) 9-11k, 11-13k Stay tuned for updated numbers for these titles, as well as Lil Dicky, a trio of Led Zeppelin reissues and more, at the top of the week. Descendants, directed by High School Musical helmer Kenny Ortega and starring Kristin Chenoweth, premiered on The Disney Channel on Friday night.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Aug 3, 2015 11:35:29 GMT -5
Not much interesting happening then... except yet another flood of Led Zeppelin albums, argh
Taylor for #1?
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timmierz
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Post by timmierz on Aug 3, 2015 13:18:44 GMT -5
So it looks like barring something crazy, 1989 will be back at number 1 for the first time since February. What's the last time a Billboard 200 #1 has returned to the spot after so long? Babel was away between October and March, 21 was away between March and June, and both of those ranges are shorter than February to August. So it looks like it'd have to be before 2011... Wasn't there a rule prohibiting catalog albums from hitting #1 until fairly recently?
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Aug 3, 2015 13:27:29 GMT -5
An album released less than a year a go that has never left the chart definitely isn't "catalog"
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timmierz
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Post by timmierz on Aug 3, 2015 13:37:56 GMT -5
Oh definitely, I worded that poorly. I meant to include a part where the death of an artist would drive great album sales, but under old rules that couldn't re-chart on the Billboard 200. I didn't actually write that, though. :)
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Aug 3, 2015 13:48:02 GMT -5
Seems weird to me that they were able to issue an estimate on Descendants, given that the movie didn't even premiere until Friday night (which was obviously going to be the main source of sales interest).
Meanwhile, they didn't have good opening day data on the Zeppelin or Lil Dicky releases.
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bruno
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Post by bruno on Aug 3, 2015 13:55:04 GMT -5
I hope the Disney Descendants soundtrack debuts at #1. I think it will sell more than this estimation.
It's currently #1 on amazon and #2 on iTunes (and the current #1 is a pre-order album).
Plus, all the songs from the soundtrack are still climbing on iTunes. Rotten to the Core is at #20!!!
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 3, 2015 14:11:24 GMT -5
Seems weird to me that they were able to issue an estimate on Descendants, given that the movie didn't even premiere until Friday night (which was obviously going to be the main source of sales interest). Meanwhile, they didn't have good opening day data on the Zeppelin or Lil Dicky releases. "Based on very early reads, here are the first forecasts for next week's chart." " Stay tuned for updated numbers for these titles, as well as Lil Dicky, a trio of Led Zeppelin reissues and more, at the top of the week." Are you really expecting excellent estimates on Saturday? This is hella boring week. Who cares? This whole Friday switcheroo has messed everything up. I doubt HITS is thrilled with working on a Saturday so we are getting half-assed estimates. Same with Billboard... |
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Aug 3, 2015 14:30:40 GMT -5
Viewship of the movie was 6.6 million on Friday. I'm sure there are several more scheduled showings this week, so that's reaching a lot of pre-teens who will hound their parents into submission.
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Aug 4, 2015 9:01:41 GMT -5
Holy crap, I just realized unless Descendants could pull over 40k, we will see the lowest selling #1 ever
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Adam (UTR)
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Post by Adam (UTR) on Aug 5, 2015 13:25:14 GMT -5
The chart is not a pretty sight this week, as sales for the #1 album hit a record low. Disney’s The Descendants TV-movie ST will debut at #1 with about 30k—although it’s comforting to see Led Zeppelin in the #2-4 slots. That’s 10k less than the previous record holder, Amos Lee, whose 2011 release Mission Bell debuted on top with 40.5k. The SPS chart doesn’t look any better with Taylor Swift and Future battling it out for relative supremacy. Both are on track for about 40k, with Swift having a very slight lead. This will also mark the lowest SPS total to date—by nearly 20k--and quite possibly could be under the previous sales-only low. Here’s how the Top 15 looks at midweek. Due to limited info this week, please expect a greater than usual margin of error. * The Descendants (Walt Disney) 28-33k sales, 30-35k SPS * Led Zeppelin, Presence (Rhino) 22-25k, 23-26k * Led Zeppelin, Coda (Rhino) 22-25k, 23-26k * Led Zeppelin, In Through the Out Door (Rhino) 22-25k, 23-26k * Lil Dicky (CMSN) 21-24k, 23-26k Jill Scott (Blues Babe) 21-24k, 23-26k Future (Epic) 18-21k, 37-42k Taylor Swift (Big Machine/BMLG) 17-20k, 37-42k Tyrese (Voltron) 14-17k, 16-19k * Saint Asonia (RCA) 14-17k, 15-18k * Migos (Quality Control) 12-14k, 14-16k Ed Sheeran (Asylum U.K.) 12-14k, 28-32k Kidz Bop Kids (Razor & Tie) 11-13k, 12-14k Alan Jackson (Capitol Nashville) 11-13k, 12-14k Sam Hunt (MCA Nashville) 10-12k, 24-27k * Debuts( HDD) |
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Aug 5, 2015 13:28:17 GMT -5
If Future takes it... that'd be just... wow!
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Aug 5, 2015 13:40:39 GMT -5
"Rotten to the Core" has been Top 40 since the movie came out. It, alone, is going to sell upwards of 30K this week. That's a 3K minimum contribution to sales plus streaming.
With *all* of the tracks included, we should be looking at 6-10K in extra consumption (and, thus, a contender for #1 on the BB200). No clue where Hits is getting 2K from.
Can someone please give HDD a link to Kworb? They made the same type of mistake with Bea Miller's album.
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Aug 5, 2015 13:41:37 GMT -5
That would be nice for either party.
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bruno
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Post by bruno on Aug 5, 2015 16:38:51 GMT -5
I think they're underestimating the streaming of Descendants.
"Rotten To The Core" has more than 7 million views on youtube. And all the other songs from the soundtrack have more than one million each. More than 15 million views in total!
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Clauss
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Post by Clauss on Aug 5, 2015 16:50:45 GMT -5
I need her 12th week, then it'd be her album with most weeks at #1, i mean it already is, but it's tying fearless
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Nick
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Post by Nick on Aug 5, 2015 17:23:28 GMT -5
What a totally unexciting week.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Aug 5, 2015 17:32:25 GMT -5
I think they're underestimating the streaming of Descendants. "Rotten To The Core" has more than 7 million views on youtube. And all the other songs from the soundtrack have more than one million each. More than 15 million views in total! Unless something changed very recently, YouTube streaming doesn't count toward the Billboard 200. Taylor Swift's "1989," for instance, received zero SEA prior to launching on Apple Music. But Hits is definitely underestimating track sales. The top few tracks should themselves generate 6K in TEA. |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 5, 2015 20:30:12 GMT -5
I didn't watch Descendants, but it would be nice if it got close to Amos Lee's tally- no <30,000 for No. 1, please.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Aug 5, 2015 21:49:44 GMT -5
Evil Like Me is the only tolerable song on Descendants. The music from the movie is objectively awful.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Aug 5, 2015 22:04:50 GMT -5
The old sales record is going to be blown to bits. Probably going to sink further in the near future.
We are in a singles-driven streaming market, where no big name artists are releasing new albums. Not a good market for album sales.
Although it is kind of fun seeing 3 decades-old Led Zeppelin albums in the top 5, they are there because nothing else is out there. Don't release anything and people won't buy anything.
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Post by Daryl the Beryl on Aug 5, 2015 23:35:48 GMT -5
Great. 3 more Led Zeppelin albums. More wasted space that could be occupied by other albums.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Aug 6, 2015 1:50:54 GMT -5
Those 3 albums are new to many who might own LZ III or IV.. I'm not surprised they are so popular this week. They might have reached top 10 on almost any week so it's not that exceptional. But with the help of those albums, the top 10 level is pretty ok in units.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Aug 6, 2015 5:47:18 GMT -5
The old sales record is going to be blown to bits. Probably going to sink further in the near future.
We are in a singles-driven streaming market, where no big name artists are releasing new albums. Not a good market for album sales.
Although it is kind of fun seeing 3 decades-old Led Zeppelin albums in the top 5, they are there because nothing else is out there. Don't release anything and people won't buy anything.
Right now is an awful time for releases. Nobody is putting anything out at the moment. I feel like anymore the only time sales will be OK is Q1 when new artists will release their albums and Q4 when established artists will. The other 6 months of the year are just the middle of the pack crowd that will rarely set the world on fire. 1 Direction is going to sell about as many TEA/SEA units of their lead single this week as the #1 album is going to sell in raw sales. The market is totally singles driven now, which is why I think in the coming years album promo is going to change drastically. The days of a lead single followed by album release 2-3 months later are going to end. |
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 6, 2015 12:55:06 GMT -5
hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=297144YOUR TOP 15The chart is not a pretty sight this week, as sales for the #1 album hit a record low. Disney’s The Descendants TV-movie ST will debut at #1 with about 30k—although it’s comforting to see Led Zeppelin in the #2-4 slots. That’s 10k less than the previous record holder, Amos Lee, whose 2011 release Mission Bell debuted on top with 40.5k. The SPS chart doesn’t look any better with Taylor Swift and Future battling it out for relative supremacy. Both are on track for about 40k, with Swift having a very slight lead. This will also mark the lowest SPS total to date—by nearly 20k--and quite possibly could be under the previous sales-only low. Here’s how the Top 15 looks at midweek. Due to limited info this week, please expect a greater than usual margin of error. * The Descendants (Walt Disney) 28-33k sales, 30-35k SPS * Led Zeppelin, Presence (Rhino) 22-25k, 23-26k * Led Zeppelin, Coda (Rhino) 22-25k, 23-26k * Led Zeppelin, In Through the Out Door (Rhino) 22-25k, 23-26k * Lil Dicky (CMSN) 21-24k, 23-26k Jill Scott (Blues Babe) 21-24k, 23-26k Future (Epic) 18-21k, 37-42k Taylor Swift (Big Machine/BMLG) 17-20k, 37-42k Tyrese (Voltron) 14-17k, 16-19k * Saint Asonia (RCA) 14-17k, 15-18k * Migos (Quality Control) 12-14k, 14-16k Ed Sheeran (Asylum U.K.) 12-14k, 28-32k Kidz Bop Kids (Razor & Tie) 11-13k, 12-14k Alan Jackson (Capitol Nashville) 11-13k, 12-14k Sam Hunt (MCA Nashville) 10-12k, 24-27k
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ddlz
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Post by ddlz on Aug 6, 2015 14:28:55 GMT -5
hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=297144YOUR TOP 15* The Descendants (Walt Disney) 28-33k sales, 30-35k SPS * Led Zeppelin, Presence (Rhino) 22-25k, 23-26k * Led Zeppelin, Coda (Rhino) 22-25k, 23-26k * Led Zeppelin, In Through the Out Door (Rhino) 22-25k, 23-26k * Lil Dicky (CMSN) 21-24k, 23-26k Jill Scott (Blues Babe) 21-24k, 23-26k Future (Epic) 18-21k, 37-42k Taylor Swift (Big Machine/BMLG) 17-20k, 37-42k Tyrese (Voltron) 14-17k, 16-19k * Saint Asonia (RCA) 14-17k, 15-18k * Migos (Quality Control) 12-14k, 14-16k Ed Sheeran (Asylum U.K.) 12-14k, 28-32k Kidz Bop Kids (Razor & Tie) 11-13k, 12-14k Alan Jackson (Capitol Nashville) 11-13k, 12-14k Sam Hunt (MCA Nashville) 10-12k, 24-27k  |
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Aug 7, 2015 18:17:17 GMT -5
Guess Hits found Kworb. It has "Descendants" winning with 31K in pure sales and 46K in SPS.
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Nick
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Post by Nick on Aug 7, 2015 18:35:54 GMT -5
Chart Date: 08/07/2015 Status: Final
-- 1
DESCENDANTS
ORIGINAL TV MOVIE SOUNDTRACK
WALT DISNEY 31,115 --
-- 2
LED ZEPPELIN
IN THROUGH THE OUT DOOR
RHINO 24,040 --
-- 3
LED ZEPPELIN
CODA
RHINO 23,773 --
-- 4
LED ZEPPELIN
PRESENCE
RHINO 23,713 --
-- 5
LIL DICKY
PROFESSIONAL RAPPER
CMSN 23,140 --
1 6 JILL SCOTT
WOMAN
BLUES BABE 22,586 -61%
7 7 TAYLOR SWIFT
1989
BIG MACHINE 20,296 -13%
4 8 FUTURE
DS2
EPIC 18,130 -43%
-- 9 MIGOS
YUNG RICH NATION
QUALITY CONTROL 16,784 --
6 10 TYRESE
BLACK ROSE
VOLTRON 15,400 -36%
-- 11 JOSS STONE
WATER FOR YOUR SOUL
STONE'D 14,859 --
-- 12 SAINT ASONIA
SAINT ASONIA
RCA 14,113 --
11 13 ED SHEERAN
X
ASYLUM UK 12,783 -19%
16 14 SAM HUNT
MONTEVALLO
MCA NASHVILLE 12,710 9%
9 15 ALAN JACKSON
ANGELS AND ALCOHOL
CAPITOL NASHVILLE 11,748 -39%
10 16 KIDZ BOP KIDS
KIDZ BOP 29
RAZOR & TIE 11,458 -29%
22 17 TWENTY ONE PILOTS
BLURRYFACE
FUELED BY RAMEN 10,734 11%
2 18 LAMB OF GOD
VII: STURM UND DRANG
EPIC 10,717 -78%
3 19 SOUTHPAW
VARIOUS ARTISTS
SHADY/INTERSCOPE 10,090 --
24 20 MEGHAN TRAINOR
TITLE
EPIC 9,775 3%
39 21 HOZIER
HOZIER
COLUMBIA 9,274 50%
25 22 ZAC BROWN BAND
JEKYLL + HYDE
SOUTHERN GROUND/VARVATOS/BMLG/REPUBLIC 9,109 -1%
23 23 SAM SMITH
IN THE LONELY HOUR
CAPITOL 8,905 -6%
-- 24 ZAC BROWN BAND
GREATEST HITS...SO FAR
ZAC BROWN BAND 8,650 --
-- 25 BUDDY GUY
BORN TO PLAY GUITAR
RCA 8,199 --
30 26 ERIC CHURCH
THE OUTSIDERS
EMI NASHVILLE 8,062 1%
31 27 DRAKE
IF YOU'RE READING THIS, IT'S TOO LATE
YMCMB/REPUBLIC 7,826 -1%
-- 28 LIANNE LA HAVAS
BLOOD
NONESUCH 7,598 --
27 29 BREAKING BENJAMIN
DARK BEFORE DAWN
HOLLYWOOD 7,250 -18%
18 30 JASON ISBELL
SOMETHING MORE THAN FREE
THIRTY TIGERS 7,185 -34%
35 31 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY: AWESOME MIX, VOL. 1
SOUNDTRACK
HOLLYWOOD 7,081 6%
33 32 NOW 54
VARIOUS ARTISTS
NOW 6,830 -2%
34 33 LITTLE BIG TOWN
PAIN KILLER
CAPITOL NASHVILLE 6,824 0%
21 34 JAMES TAYLOR
BEFORE THIS WORLD
CONCORD 6,800 -30%
20 35 TAME IMPALA
CURRENTS
MODULAR/INTERSCOPE 6,792 -30%
36 36 FALL OUT BOY
AMERICAN BEAUTY/AMERICAN PSYCHO
DCD2/ISLAND 6,671 4%
32 37 J. COLE
2014 FOREST HILLS DRIVE
ROC NATION/COLUMBIA 6,592 -6%
-- 38 CHASE RICE
IGNITE THE NIGHT
DACK JANIELS 6,586 --
49 39 FLORENCE + THE MACHINE
HOW BIG HOW BLUE HOW BEAUTIFUL
REPUBLIC 6,438 24%
14 40 MEEK MILL
DREAMS WORTH MORE THAN MONEY
MMG 6,378 -51%
45 41 JASON ALDEAN
OLD BOOTS, NEW DIRT
BROKEN BOW 6,165 13%
37 42 MUMFORD & SONS
WILDER MIND
GLASSNOTE 5,661 -11%
44 43 KENDRICK LAMAR
TO PIMP A BUTTERFLY
TDE/AFTERMATH/INTERSCOPE 5,383 -2%
-- 44 FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE
ANYTHING GOES
REPUBLIC NASHVILLE/BMLG 5,110 3%
42 45 JOSH GROBAN
STAGES
REPRISE 5,036 -11%
38 46 MAROON 5
V
222/INTERSCOPE 5,030 -19%
-- 47 BRANTLEY GILBERT
JUST AS I AM
VALORY/BMLG 4,774 -4%
17 48 ASHLEY MONROE
THE BLADE
WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 4,597 -58%
50 49 NOW COUNTRY 8
VARIOUS ARTISTS
NOW 4,569 -11%
-- 50 FIFTY SHADES OF GREY
SOUNDTRACK
REPUBLIC 4,354 -14%
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Nick
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Post by Nick on Aug 7, 2015 18:38:45 GMT -5
Sales Plus Streaming
-- 1
DESCENDANTS
ORIGINAL TV MOVIE SOUNDTRACK
WALT DISNEY 46,115 --
4 2
TAYLOR SWIFT
1989
BIG MACHINE 39,419 -19%
2 3
FUTURE
DS2
EPIC 34,752 -33%
6 4
ED SHEERAN
X
ASYLUM UK 30,037 -12%
9 5
SAM HUNT
MONTEVALLO
MCA NASHVILLE 28,294 2%
-- 6 LIL DICKY
PROFESSIONAL RAPPER
CMSN 26,900 --
-- 7 LED ZEPPELIN
IN THROUGH THE OUT DOOR
RHINO 24,790 --
-- 8 LED ZEPPELIN
CODA
RHINO 24,523 --
-- 9 LED ZEPPELIN
PRESENCE
RHINO 24,463 --
13 10 DRAKE
IF YOU'RE READING THIS, IT'S TOO LATE
YMCMB/REPUBLIC 23,715 9%
1 11 JILL SCOTT
WOMAN
BLUES BABE 23,194 -62%
5 12 MEEK MILL
DREAMS WORTH MORE THAN MONEY
MMG 20,878 -41%
15 13 SAM SMITH
IN THE LONELY HOUR
CAPITOL 20,789 6%
12 14 MEGHAN TRAINOR
TITLE
EPIC 20,775 -10%
-- 15 MIGOS
YUNG RICH NATION
QUALITY CONTROL 19,333 --
16 16 FALL OUT BOY
AMERICAN BEAUTY/AMERICAN PSYCHO
DCD2/ISLAND 18,866 -2%
19 17 TWENTY ONE PILOTS
BLURRYFACE
FUELED BY RAMEN 18,500 3%
10 18 TYRESE
BLACK ROSE
VOLTRON 17,107 -35%
-- 19 JOSS STONE
WATER FOR YOUR SOUL
STONE'D 16,674 --
17 20 MAROON 5
V
222/INTERSCOPE 16,641 -12%
23 21 MAJOR LAZER
PEACE IS THE MISSION
MAD DECENT 16,362 0%
28 22 ZAC BROWN BAND
JEKYLL + HYDE
SOUTHERN GROUND/VARVATOS/BMLG/REPUBLIC 16,142 7%
7 23 SOUTHPAW
VARIOUS ARTISTS
SHADY/INTERSCOPE 14,881 -55%
24 24 J. COLE
2014 FOREST HILLS DRIVE
ROC NATION/COLUMBIA 14,779 -9%
-- 25 SAINT ASONIA
SAINT ASONIA
RCA 14,772 --
27 26 SHAWN MENDES
HANDWRITTEN
ISLAND 14,447 -9%
31 27 ERIC CHURCH
THE OUTSIDERS
EMI NASHVILLE 14,259 1%
20 28 NICKI MINAJ
PINKPRINT
YMCMB/REPUBLIC 14,232 -19%
32 29 LITTLE BIG TOWN
PAIN KILLER
CAPITOL NASHVILLE 13,049 -2%
29 30 BIG SEAN
DARK SKY PARADISE
DEF JAM 12,748 -14%
14 31 ALAN JACKSON
ANGELS AND ALCOHOL
CAPITOL NASHVILLE 12,718 -38%
-- 32 ZAC BROWN BAND
GREATEST HITS...SO FAR
ZAC BROWN BAND 12,650 --
-- 33 HOZIER
HOZIER
COLUMBIA 12,292 --
21 34 KIDZ BOP KIDS
KIDZ BOP 29
RAZOR & TIE 12,073 -29%
30 35 WALK THE MOON
TALKING IS HARD
RCA 11,922 -18%
3 36 LAMB OF GOD
VII: STURM UND DRANG
EPIC 11,898 -77%
-- 37 CHARLIE PUTH
SOME TYPE OF LOVE - EP
ARTIST PARTNERS 11,475 --
25 38 ANDY GRAMMER
MAGAZINES OR NOVELS
S-CURVE 11,140 -31%
34 39 SKRILLEX & DIPLO
SKRILLEX & DIPLO PRESENT JACK U
ATLANTIC 11,105 -11%
42 40 KENDRICK LAMAR
TO PIMP A BUTTERFLY
TDE/AFTERMATH/INTERSCOPE 10,553 -1%
-- 41 JASON ALDEAN
OLD BOOTS, NEW DIRT
BROKEN BOW 10,536 11%
37 42 A$AP ROCKY
AT.LONG.LAST.A$AP
RCA 9,864 -17%
46 43 FURIOUS 7
SOUNDTRACK
ATLANTIC 9,553 -5%
-- 44 FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE
ANYTHING GOES
REPUBLIC NASHVILLE/BMLG 9,541 1%
47 45 JASON DERULO
EVERYTHING IS 4
WARNER BROS. 9,343 -6%
-- 46 CHASE RICE
IGNITE THE NIGHT
DACK JANIELS 9,156 --
48 47 FLO RIDA
MY HOUSE
POE BOY 9,052 -8%
41 48 BREAKING BENJAMIN
DARK BEFORE DAWN
HOLLYWOOD 8,905 -17%
35 49 TAME IMPALA
CURRENTS
MODULAR/INTERSCOPE 8,750 -29%
-- 50 LUKE BRYAN
CRASH MY PARTY
EMI NASHVILLE 8,626 --
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 7, 2015 19:52:21 GMT -5
Those #1 totals are PAINFUL.
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