Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2015 15:34:32 GMT -5
Why isn't there a big new Xmas album this year? Usually there's one every year (PTX, Kelly, Rod, Buble, Susan, Bocelli, ...) but this year PTX seems to be repeating as Xmas champ. 25 is this year's Christmas release. Duh. My serious opinion: Columbia (and to a lesser extent, Sony as a whole) probably felt no need to push a new holiday seller b/c Adele is all they need to keep their stockings filled this year. For other labels, I don't know...maybe Katy Perry was going to be this year's attempt at a big holiday themed seller (even if just for a song) and she choked? For whatever reason there's been little buzz around it and she has chosen not to send it to radio as far as I can tell. I think there was a rumor she held back for a bit when Hello dropped but she should have just gone for it full throttle; she likely would have picked up a good deal of the airplay that Hello lost when AC stations flipped over to their seasonal playlists. It's also possible that there just wasn't any big name singer out there who was interested in doing a Christmas album this year.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Dec 2, 2015 15:51:07 GMT -5
I knew she would not be able to hit a million in another week. As I said all along, the sales were inflated upfront. The Black Friday/Cyber Monday is not going to draw in much more. Of course, now I will get attacked (again) for saying this. Lol The numbers are INCREDIBLE. They are mind blowing, truly amazing and legendary. I'm strictly talking about the people who told me she would do a million in the next week due to the inflation of Black Friday and shopping. I'm just leaving this here for a bit of fun.
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Dec 2, 2015 16:09:26 GMT -5
Bieber is doing very well. Three weeks well over 100k
Good for Carrie as well.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Dec 2, 2015 18:47:20 GMT -5
Pleased with Storyteller's legs thus far. Should near 500k by year's end, and with how quick her team is with RIAA, a gold certification will likely come soon, too.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Dec 2, 2015 18:53:27 GMT -5
Extremely pleased with Carrie's sales... Nice to see her in with the leading pack of sales artists this season. Also impressed with Justin's numbers, glad to see good music winning across the board in terms of sales!
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Dec 2, 2015 19:13:05 GMT -5
Pentatonix are always reliable! Taylor still doing great, and Bieber, etc.
Very impressive all around! Love that 21 is still selling as well!
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Dec 2, 2015 20:53:13 GMT -5
Adele=H.B.A.B.
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anafan
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Post by anafan on Dec 3, 2015 11:13:17 GMT -5
ADELE: HOW BIG BY YEAR'S END? Adele’s colossal growth continues, with industry prognosticators now calling for her 25 (XL/Columbia) to do somewhere between 7.2m and 7.7m by year’s end. How do we get there? Consult this handy week-by-week projection for the last of 2015. Bear in mind: This is a conservative estimate. Week 47 – 3.4m Week 48 – 1m Week 49 – 600k Week 50 – 800k Week 51 – 1m Week 52 – 500k Year-end projected – 7.3m Of course, Adele could leave even this number in the dust. Stay tuned. hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=298768
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Dec 3, 2015 11:16:45 GMT -5
So the question is, can Adele hit diamond next year?
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Dec 3, 2015 12:06:41 GMT -5
And people thought I was crazy for suggesting she's going to do 8 million by the end of the year. Just going for an ambitious target as Adele has completely blown everyone's predictions out of the water. Week 1: ~3.3-3.6 million Week 2: ~1.2-1.5 million Week 3: ~600-800k Week 4: ~600-800k Week 5: ~1- 1.2 million (Christmas week) Week 6: ~300-500k So ~7-8.4 million total is my predicton before the end of the year. Should go diamond quite easily. Perhaps it can do 15 million in the US? If it does 8 million+ by the end of this year, I could see it selling 4-5 million copies next year and another 2 million+ in 2017 with the Grammys. *_*
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divasummer
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Post by divasummer on Dec 3, 2015 12:29:34 GMT -5
I can't see it going back up to a million sold in 1 week but she's defied all odds. LoL. On a sidenote are teens into her too? When I say teens I mean 12-17/18.
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magik
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Post by magik on Dec 3, 2015 13:05:06 GMT -5
The Adele to Alanis/Norah comparisons are null and void now.
People are just sincerely here for her. It's not a one-time thing.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2015 13:28:55 GMT -5
So the question is, can Adele hit diamond next year? You mean when will Adele hit diamond. I'll place my bet by the end of May.
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Post by blue in moonlight on Dec 3, 2015 15:24:50 GMT -5
at Adele heading towards 7x platinum on the first single. I don't even know what to say anymore. This seems so unreal. I wonder how she personally feels about all of this success. It must be extremely exciting and an overwhelming amount of pressure at the same time.
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Dec 3, 2015 15:45:06 GMT -5
I'm going to say Diamond in late June/early July and 15x platinum by June 2017 (taking into account Q4 sales on 2016 and Grammys 2017).
Rather exciting that she's going to match or surpass the success of 21. I hope Adele records a Christmas album for the next album. I could see that doing 20 million+ worldwide if done right over the course of a few years.
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kmbgs
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Post by kmbgs on Dec 3, 2015 15:46:25 GMT -5
I will say, I never expected this to outsell 21. Looking very possible now...
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kmbgs
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Post by kmbgs on Dec 3, 2015 18:20:31 GMT -5
Do we know the fastest an album has reached diamond status? I'm assuming it's NSA or OIDIA?
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lincroft
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Post by lincroft on Dec 3, 2015 18:37:12 GMT -5
Do we know the fastest an album has reached diamond status? I'm assuming it's NSA or OIDIA? In the Soundscan era, it's the Backstreet Boys' Millennium Only eight albums have scanned 10 million in less than two years: Backstreet Boys' Millennium – 39 weeks N'Sync's No Strings Attached – 43 weeks Santana’s Supernatural – 60 weeks Alanis Morissette’s Jagged Little Pill – 66 weeks The Bodyguard Soundtrack – 72 weeks Adele’s 21 – 92 weeks Creed’s Human Clay – 93 weeks Shania Twain’s Come On Over – 96 weeks www.billboard.com/articles/news/473979/adeles-21-hits-10-million-in-us-sales
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Dec 3, 2015 19:49:40 GMT -5
So if it makes it to diamond status by August 29th, it'll tie the record for fastest album to 10 million. If it reaches that target before, it'll break the record. Very exciting, looks like it could break the record if they have a good amount of promotion lined up for the second single (Grammy performance I hope!).
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Dec 3, 2015 20:15:00 GMT -5
I definitely think the Grammys will ask Adele to perform so they can capitalize on her current momentum/popularity. Justin and Bruno each performed the year before their albums were eligible.
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Post by ificanthaveyou on Dec 3, 2015 22:42:04 GMT -5
Has the performer for the Superbowl been selected yet? Imagine Adele as the half-time performer...
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Dec 3, 2015 22:56:22 GMT -5
^Coldplay was announced today.
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Dec 3, 2015 23:50:16 GMT -5
Eminem never got a diamond album in two years or less?? Or does it go by certifications? Because his label takes forever to certify but I'm fairly certain he sold 10 million in 2 years or less no? I mean he had a 1.7 million opening week
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cjay
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Post by cjay on Dec 4, 2015 0:09:58 GMT -5
so I can totally see Adele getting to 7-8 million quickly, but I think it will take her at least until next November to tie 21's numbers. I think she will max out at 13 million in the US.
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BlueSwan
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Post by BlueSwan on Dec 4, 2015 2:18:51 GMT -5
Calm down everybody. These sales are incredible and I think they succeeded even the wildest expectations so far. However, this is still a deeply depressed sales climate. Once christmas is over it will again be extremely hard for any album - including this one - to maintain big sales week after week. Look at Taylor's 1989. It has more or less been top 10 all year long, has had several huge singles, and stands at something like 1,7-1,8 million sold during the year, making it easily the second best seller of the year.
In other words. Adele might very well do 7 million before the year is over (still want to see it before I believe it), but even doing 2 million next year would be amazingly strong sales that shouldn't be sniffed at or regarded as disappointing in any way.
Diamond status is definitely not a given. I'm no Adele hater. I 100% hope that she makes it, I'm just trying to be realistic and just because an album is seemingly defying the sales laws doesn't mean that it will continue to do so.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Dec 4, 2015 3:03:34 GMT -5
Calm down everybody. These sales are incredible and I think they succeeded even the wildest expectations so far. However, this is still a deeply depressed sales climate. Once christmas is over it will again be extremely hard for any album - including this one - to maintain big sales week after week. Look at Taylor's 1989. It has more or less been top 10 all year long, has had several huge singles, and stands at something like 1,7-1,8 million sold during the year, making it easily the second best seller of the year. In other words. Adele might very well do 7 million before the year is over (still want to see it before I believe it), but even doing 2 million next year would be amazingly strong sales that shouldn't be sniffed at or regarded as disappointing in any way. Diamond status is definitely not a given. I'm no Adele hater. I 100% hope that she makes it, I'm just trying to be realistic and just because an album is seemingly defying the sales laws doesn't mean that it will continue to do so.She's on track to sell 7 million off of 5 weeks of sales, and one single. She hasn't even released more singles, gone on tour, or done much of anything besides some magazine covers/interviews and a few NBC gigs. Diamond is a given. Let's not be a complete Debbie Downer on an event that has already gone down in music history. If you think these sales and this situation is something that we all need to calm down about, then it sounds like you're the one who needs to readjust their line of thinking. No one's saying it's going to sell another 10 million or something absurd along those lines, but if it can pull 7 million in 5 weeks off of the back of one single, it can easily pull 3 million in another 52 weeks off of the backs of more radio releases.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2015 4:28:17 GMT -5
Eminem never got a diamond album in two years or less?? Or does it go by certifications? Because his label takes forever to certify but I'm fairly certain he sold 10 million in 2 years or less no? I mean he had a 1.7 million opening week It goes by sales; they also note that Hybrid Theory and Confessions had just crossed 10 million sold in 2012 despite being released much earlier. The list is pretty interesting; only three of those albums opened with 1 million+. And BSB's Millennium bested No Strings attached by a month, despite NSA opening with 1.3 million more than Millennium did. Other interesting (to me, anyway) factoids - of the 20 albums that have sold 1 million+ in a week, 11 never even reached 10 million (Chocolate Starfish and The Hot Dog Flavored Water [6x], Black and Blue [certified 8x, but apparently only scanned 5.9 million?], Celebrity [5x], Feels Like Home [4x], The Massacre [6x], Tha Carter III [3x], Speak Now [4x], Born This Way [2x], Red [4x], 1989 [5x], and of course 25 so far). Really highlights the fact that massive immediate demand is not the same thing as massive longevity. Kind of hard to imagine 25 won't get there with it starting SO huge, but it's fascinating that even a galloping platinum start only gives an album coin-flip odds of hitting the diamond mark. I would give a list of the overall top sellers of the bunch, but Billboard has some conflicting numbers in different articles and I'm not in the mood to figure out which is right. But as far as I can tell it's either 1 or Millennium with 12-13 million. Born This Way's opening was just shy of 50% of its total sales (2,236,000 as of 2014, to be specific), while Carter III's debut was roughly 28% of its 3.6 million total. If we were to assume 25 follows the lowest sales trend set by a million-week seller, it would sell 6.82 million...but that's what she's projected to do just by the end of the year, so let's bump her up to Carter III standards. That would give her a sales trajectory ending at ~12.1 million. NSA's debut was about 22% of its total, which would equate to 14-15 million for 25. Now, on a Millennium scale I'd be projecting Adele to sell well over 36 million...but even I have my speculative limits. 12-15 million makes a lot more sense.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2015 5:03:25 GMT -5
Couple of other things I would note:
1. Demand is too strong for me to think the 10 million who bought 21 in 2011-2012 won't all get around to buying 25. Or to put it in boyband terms, 21 to 25 is more akin to NSYNC to NSA/Backstreet Boys to Millennium, not NSA to Celebrity/Millennium to Black & Blue. She's not about to lose any ground here. 2. With that said, holiday season - and the plummet that usually comes after it - makes predicting the time it takes for her to reach diamond tougher. She could knock out 10 million by next summer, or she could race to 8 million by year-end and then take another two years to sell the next two million. The main reason diamond is such a safe bet is because she's going to rack up most of that sum so quickly that it allows her to coast on whatever remains, not because of any surety in long-term big sales. 3. Adele herself is also a wild card. A lot of people are assuming we're getting five singles, but she could easily pull a 21 and only give us 3 'proper' singles and a fourth with virtually no promo tossed out to end it. I'd also be curious to see how many tv appearances she does later - she eschewed the AMAs this year despite it lining up with her release week (clearly didn't need it), BMA/iHeart are frankly beneath her, and she could skip out on the VMAs without missing a beat as well. There's no reason for her to make the late-night rounds. She might very well decline to perform at the 2016 Grammys just b/c she isn't nominated for anything and sees no reason to attend. Or maybe she'll do ALL those things. I just don't know what to expect right now.
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lincroft
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Post by lincroft on Dec 4, 2015 6:35:51 GMT -5
Eminem never got a diamond album in two years or less?? Or does it go by certifications? Because his label takes forever to certify but I'm fairly certain he sold 10 million in 2 years or less no? I mean he had a 1.7 million opening week It's based on sales. And surprisingly, no. The Marshall Mathers LP took 343 weeks and The Eminem Show took 489. Here's the full list of albums that have scanned 10 million or more together with how long it took them to get there. The sales are out of date now and some of the rankings have changed, but it gives an idea of how long it typically takes: www.billboard.com/articles/chartbeat/473955/best-selling-albums-since-1991-soundscan-era-adele-joins-elite-club
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Dec 4, 2015 7:23:28 GMT -5
Eminem never got a diamond album in two years or less?? Or does it go by certifications? Because his label takes forever to certify but I'm fairly certain he sold 10 million in 2 years or less no? I mean he had a 1.7 million opening week It's based on sales. And surprisingly, no. The Marshall Mathers LP took 343 weeks and The Eminem Show took 489. Here's the full list of albums that have scanned 10 million or more together with how long it took them to get there. The sales are out of date now and some of the rankings have changed, but it gives an idea of how long it typically takes: www.billboard.com/articles/chartbeat/473955/best-selling-albums-since-1991-soundscan-era-adele-joins-elite-clubCertifications are not based on sales and never have been. They're based on shipments.
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