Daniel Collins
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With every broken bone, I swear I lived
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Post by Daniel Collins on Mar 1, 2016 9:33:35 GMT -5
2016/03/01
*** = dropped or added a format
1. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 195.874 (+1.397)
2. TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Stressed Out: 185.020 (-1.276***)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 157.916 (-1.152)
4. RIHANNA - Work f/Drake: 120.094 (+1.883) ▲
5. FLO RIDA - My House: 118.944 (+1.957) ▲
6. ADELE - Hello: 117.264 (-1.105) ▼
7. G-EAZY - Me Myself And I f/Bebe Rexha: 102.048 (+1.744) ▲
8. THE CHAINSMOKERS - Roses f/Rozes: 101.863 (-0.702***) ▼
9. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 99.848 (-0.483) ▼
10. ADELE - When We Were Young: 88.737 (-1.594)
11. DNCE - Cake By The Ocean: 86.925 (+2.155***) ▲
12. SELENA GOMEZ - Hands To Myself: 86.915 (+1.148) ▲
13. THE WEEKND - In The Night: 85.199 (-4.039) ▼
14. SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 84.659 (-1.960) ▼
15. CHARLIE PUTH - One Call Away: 74.890 (+1.507) ▲
16. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 73.773 (+0.206)
17. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 73.062 (-1.975) ▼
18. KEITH URBAN - Break On Me: 69.790 (-0.265)
19. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Heartbeat: 68.795 (+0.364) ▲
20. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 68.295 (-0.774) ▼
21. DAYA - Hide Away: 67.185 (-1.029)
22. RANDY HOUSER - We Went: 65.961 (+1.061) ▲
23. RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 65.795 (-0.331) ▼
24. ZAYN - Pillowtalk: 63.511 (+2.804***) ▲
25. ZAC BROWN BAND - Beautiful Drug: 62.375 (+0.749) ▼
26. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 60.449 (-0.584) ▼
27. TORY LANEZ - Say It: 59.013 (-0.393)
28. MIKE POSNER - I Took A Pill In Ibiza: 55.992 (+1.232) ▲
29. GRANGER SMITH - Backroad Song: 55.244 (-1.547) ▼
30. BRETT ELDREDGE - Drunk On Your Love: 55.210 (+0.669)
31. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 53.275 (-0.018) ▲
32. COLE SWINDELL - You Should Be Here: 52.964 (+0.450) ▲
33. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 52.608 (-1.200) ▼
34. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 51.950 (-1.232) ▼
35. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Confession: 51.074 (+0.207) ▲
36. BRYSON TILLER - Don't: 50.997 (-0.693) ▼
37. CHASE BRYANT - Little Bit Of You: 50.830 (+0.464) ▲
38. THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 50.811 (+0.421***) ▲
39. LUKE BRYAN - Home Alone Tonight: 50.331 (-0.535) ▼
40. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 49.484 (+0.059) ▲
41. CHRIS BROWN - Back To Sleep: 49.353 (+0.635) ▲
42. ELLIE GOULDING - Something In The Way You Move: 49.315 (+0.767) ▲
43. ROBIN SCHULZ - Sugar f/Francesco Yates: 47.933 (+1.107) ▲
44. KELSEA BALLERINI - Dibs: 47.551 (-3.773) ▼
45. RASCAL FLATTS - I Like The Sound Of That: 46.330 (+0.617)
46. LUKAS GRAHAM - 7 Years: 45.526 (+1.117) ▲
47. YO GOTTI - Down In The DM: 44.999 (+0.028) ▲
48. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 44.942 (-0.061) ▼
49. JEREMIH - Oui: 44.673 (+0.751) ▲
50. DRAKE & FUTURE - Jumpman: 43.280 (-1.800***) ▼
51. COLDPLAY - Adventure Of A Lifetime: 41.185 (-0.410)
52. FETTY WAP - Again: 40.446 (-1.106)
53. CHRIS STAPLETON - Nobody To Blame: 39.819 (+0.053)
54. OLD DOMINION - Snapback: 39.648 (+0.489)
55. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 39.262 (+0.203)
56. BEYONCE - Formation: 38.566 (+0.561)
57. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 37.505 (-0.178)
58. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 37.377 (+0.137)
59. MAREN MORRIS - My Church: 36.795 (+0.071)
60. JAMES BAY - Let It Go: 35.632 (+0.731)
61. DUSTIN LYNCH - Mind Reader: 34.562 (+0.687) ▲
62. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 34.415 (-0.281)
63. BROTHERS OSBORNE - Stay A Little Longer: 34.265 (-0.606) ▼
64. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 33.963 (+0.115) ▲
65. LOCASH - I Love This Life: 33.456 (-0.527) ▼
66. LEE BRICE - That Don't Sound Like You: 33.144 (+0.565)
67. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 32.204 (+0.069)
68. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 31.570 (+0.000) ▲
69. CHRIS YOUNG & CASSADEE POPE - Think Of You: 31.408 (+0.905) ▲
70. TRAVI$ SCOTT - Antidote: 30.944 (-0.912) ▼
71. DIERKS BENTLEY - Somewhere On A Beach: 30.725 (+0.413) ▲
72. J. COLE - No Role Modelz: 29.766 (+0.095) ▲
73. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 29.760 (-0.187)
74. SAM HUNT - Break Up In A Small Town: 29.624 (-0.722) ▼
75. DJ LUKE NASTYY - Might Be: 28.868 (+0.166) ▲
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Zach
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And at once I knew I was not magnificent...
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Post by Zach on Mar 1, 2016 10:24:00 GMT -5
Love Yourself is killing it. In the Night seems to have slipped into free fall.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Mar 1, 2016 10:33:10 GMT -5
Ouch @ Out of the Woods already out of the airplay top 75. Wildest Dreams is still #16 which is great.
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Post by mrchartknowitall on Mar 1, 2016 10:59:07 GMT -5
Geez!! Kelly Clarkson's PIECE BY PIECE has the # 2 AND # 7 spots on the iTunes chart .....
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Mar 1, 2016 10:59:24 GMT -5
2016/03/01 *** = dropped or added a format
1. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 195.874 (+1.397) 2. TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Stressed Out: 185.020 (-1.276***)
7. G-EAZY - Me Myself And I f/Bebe Rexha: 102.048 (+1.744) ▲
11. DNCE - Cake By The Ocean: 86.925 (+2.155***) ▲
24. ZAYN - Pillowtalk: 63.511 (+2.804***) ▲
28. MIKE POSNER - I Took A Pill In Ibiza: 55.992 (+1.232) ▲
46. LUKAS GRAHAM - 7 Years: 45.526 (+1.117) ▲48. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 44.942 (-0.061) ▼ 60. JAMES BAY - Let It Go: 35.632 (+0.731) I hope Love Yourself makes it to 200m. Also, I don't like that update for Stressed Out >  Loving the updates for MM&I, CBTO, PILLOWTALK, ITAPII, 7 Years, and I'm glad to see Let It Go still gaining. It also amazes me that Want To Want Me is still going strong. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 11:55:46 GMT -5
Cake By The Ocean will be top ten in airplay tomorrow yay |
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wjr15
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Post by wjr15 on Mar 1, 2016 13:41:53 GMT -5
Looks like Stressed Out is going to miss #1 on airplay
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wavey.
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Post by wavey. on Mar 1, 2016 13:48:04 GMT -5
So where is Kelly planning to debut?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 13:50:43 GMT -5
So where is Kelly planning to debut? Top 10, easy. Top 5 isn't totally out of reach yet. Sales are bonkers. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 14:42:02 GMT -5
I think ITAPII and 7 Years will kick Roses and either CBTO or Hello out of the top ten this week
EDIT: forgot about PBP. I guess CBTO and Hello are both out this week. One or both of them might return. Roses is out for good.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 14:45:25 GMT -5
It'll be interesting to see where Work From Home debuts. And Zayn's promo single didn't do all that great on iTunes really, given the explosiveness of Pillowtalk. It did ok.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 15:16:43 GMT -5
Well Piece By Piece has literally almost no airplay as of now (less than 0.2M according to Kworb) so it would need some streaming to make up for that if it wants a top 5 debut
Let's go back to middle school algebra for a minute.
My House:
100k/9 + 100M/10 + 12M/12 = 31k (roughly)
Sorry:
40k/90 + 110M/10 + 15M/12 = 28k (also roughly)
Piece By Piece:
250k/9 + 0 + x/12 >= 28k
x = 0????????
Apparently PBP would have enough from sales alone for a top 5 debut based on these calculations :O
The reason I put 250k for PBP is because the live performance version of PBP had a huge jump, so I think it'll get about 50k more sales from that.
Stressed Out:
75k/9 + 145M/10k + 12.5M/12 = about 33k
That means PBP only needs about 6M-7M streams for a top 3 debut :O
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 15:34:18 GMT -5
^ Yeah... way to work that mathematicals out @markg94 ! I'm excited to see where it lands.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 15:37:57 GMT -5
^ Yeah... way to work that mathematicals out @markg94 ! I'm excited to see where it lands. Do you agree with my 250k sales prediction? Or do you think I may have overestimated? 'Cos that's the part I'm not sure about. But it looks like a top ten debut is practically a shoe-in for PBP this week that being said, I really hope My House doesn't end up peaking at #5 after all these weeks... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 15:41:00 GMT -5
^ Yeah... way to work that mathematicals out @markg94 ! I'm excited to see where it lands. Do you agree with my 250k sales prediction? Or do you think I may have overestimated? 'Cos that's the part I'm not sure about. But it looks like a top ten debut is practically a shoe-in for PBP this week I actually used 250 and 200 as examples earlier today in the Kelly thread... so I'm with you. If it was 200k after a few days of the album and radio versions... the idol version is likely to add a lot to that total... plus other retailers, etc. Top 10 is definitely happening. Knock on Wood. I said Work was definitely NOT debuting top 10, and it did.... mind you, only because of a formula change. |
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Mar 1, 2016 15:44:05 GMT -5
What would it look like with 300k? Kworb's original sales estimate accounted for 3 versions, and especially with the Ellen performance coming up I'm looking at a hopeful ballpark figure of 100k for the Idol version for 300k total.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 15:44:09 GMT -5
^ Yeah... way to work that mathematicals out @markg94 ! I'm excited to see where it lands. Do you agree with my 250k sales prediction? Or do you think I may have overestimated? 'Cos that's the part I'm not sure about. But it looks like a top ten debut is practically a shoe-in for PBP this week that being said, I really hope My House doesn't end up peaking at #5 after all these weeks... I don't like My House at all. But opinion aside, a top 5 is a top 5... so it's ok! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 15:45:46 GMT -5
What would it look like with 300k? Kworb's original sales estimate accounted for 3 versions, and especially with the Ellen performance coming up I'm looking at a hopeful ballpark figure of 100k for the Idol version for 300k total. 300k would put it in top 5 territory for sure. It would have been #4 this week with that sales number alone. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 15:48:16 GMT -5
300k sales for PBP means a top 3 debut guaranteed (based on our formula)
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Mar 1, 2016 15:54:48 GMT -5
Okay, what about throwing in a fantasy number of 15 million streams into the equation? (I'm talking Spotify + Song/Music Video + Live Performance videos if the label finds a way to make them count)
In my fantasy scenario the label would do what they needed to in order to make the Idol performance video count, and provided it's online with enough time there'd also be some streams coming in from the Ellen performance. Assuming at least 50% comes from the US it could all add up.
Of course there's every likelihood its eventual streaming figure will be absolute crap next to wishful thinking which is why (for me) a huge sales figure is so desirable.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 16:02:13 GMT -5
Well then that would very easily put Kelly ahead of Bieber for #2, but given the colossal streaming numbers of Work and the fact that the sales deficit of Work will be mostly made up for by airplay, a #1 debut is virtually impossible for Kelly without at least 35M-40M streams.
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Mar 1, 2016 16:04:00 GMT -5
I figured as much - I mean after the back-and-forth over whether Rihanna would reach 40 million streams (then it turning out 40M was lowballing it) 'Work' would be an impossible mountain to climb.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 16:05:06 GMT -5
Yeah I don't see Work getting less than 6 weeks at #1 at all unless something as big as Hello comes up within the next 3 weeks
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 16:15:06 GMT -5
Yeah I don't see Work getting less than 6 weeks at #1 at all unless something as big as Hello comes up within the next 3 weeks The new Ariana single drops a week from Friday. If it's a winner and they roll it out with the video... I think it could debut on top on the March 22nd H100 (dated 4/2). |
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Mar 1, 2016 16:15:38 GMT -5
Ehh; I'm not super-fussed about the Hot 100. I'm more concerned with Kelly reaching her fullest potential now because there's no way of knowing yet just how well 'Piece By Piece' is going to hold up once the week is done. I mean I would love it to stay strong in the top 10 on iTunes while other metrics scramble to kick into gear but if that doesn't happen and this is it, I want Kelly to have a good position to show for it.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Mar 1, 2016 16:22:42 GMT -5
It's hard to see Ariana debuting at #1 after what happened with Focus, but I guess it's not impossible if the new single is significantly stronger.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 16:22:48 GMT -5
Yeah I don't see Work getting less than 6 weeks at #1 at all unless something as big as Hello comes up within the next 3 weeks The new Ariana single drops a week from Friday. If it's a winner and they roll it out with the video... I think it could debut on top on the March 22nd H100 (dated 4/2). Are you sure Ariana even has the kind of power needed to knock something like Work off the top spot? I know Zayn did it with PILLOWTALK, but Love Yourself was a much weaker #1. Also, Ariana's momentum has kinda faded throughout 2015. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 16:38:43 GMT -5
The new Ariana single drops a week from Friday. If it's a winner and they roll it out with the video... I think it could debut on top on the March 22nd H100 (dated 4/2). Are you sure Ariana even has the kind of power needed to knock something like Work off the top spot? I know Zayn did it with PILLOWTALK, but Love Yourself was a much weaker #1. Also, Ariana's momentum has kinda faded throughout 2015. Zayn knocked Love Yourself out of the top, and not by very much. If he debuted now with the same number of points that he actually debuted with a few weeks ago, there's no way he would dethrone Work. Ariana's single will need a lot more points than even Zayn got that week in order to dethrone Work. |
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Mar 1, 2016 16:45:17 GMT -5
I think Ariana's initial reception will also be crucial to her first week sales. 'Focus' blew up out of the gate because after the success of the 'My Everything' era and singles people were anticipating the new era. But then after a couple days the overall reaction to the song was underwhelming so it kind of got stopped in its tracks before it could take it all the way.
I believe that if 'Focus' had made it to #1 it would have been in a more noticeable position, and kept it at its sales peak for longer leading to better opening sales. If 'Dangerous Woman' is received much closer to how 'Problem' was over 'Focus' then even if she doesn't reach the same dizzying sales heights as 'Problem' then she should at least be in much better standing than she was with 'Focus'.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 17:06:41 GMT -5
Ariana would need an exceptional roll-out planned for a #1 debut to be possible, something similar to what Problem had. Focus didn't really get that IMO - she announced it was coming a full month before it actually did, which I believe was much too long to expect hype to sustain itself. And during that month, both Sorry and Hello stole much of the attention, among other new releases (another reason why no artist should give a huge lead time between announcing a single and the single arriving - too much opportunity for someone else to steal your thunder). Not as many new releases to compete with this time around, so it should hopefully be a bit easier for Ariana to nab some attention to herself this time.
I say this without regard to Work - we don't know how strong/weak it will be in points by then, but probably still pretty strong.
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