Loved flipping through a lot of those ads. Some of the more LOL-worthy EOTY ads included
Jason Aldean's,
Florida Georgia Line's,
Blake Shelton's, and
Chris Stapleton's, solely because they literally just say "[artist] for Entertainer" with literally no effort put into it besides that. I have no doubt that Aldean will get in, though.
Going ahead with some light predictions...
I think
Entertainer will undoubtedly include
Jason Aldean,
Luke Bryan, and
Garth Brooks. Those three automatically occupy 3 of the 5 spots, leaving the other 2 up for grabs. I could sit here and defend why Carrie Underwood deserves to be nominated, but A) the horse is dead, and B) we've already gone to its funeral and many annual wakes in the years following. By all aspects, technically and rightfully, she deserves the award, but I don't think she'll receive the nomination. Of some others in those top fifteen candidates from the showcase website, strong (and deserving) contenders include Eric Church, Dierks Bentley, and Kenny Chesney. By a statistical standpoint, sans Underwood, nominating five men
would be fitting for this past year in Country music, as any of those three plus Aldean, Bryan, and Brooks have had the largest years out of anyone else in the genre -- male, female, duo, or group. Between Church's surprise album, his touring track record, his runs at radio, and his newly-announced tour with 0 openers and making the show long enough for a freaking intermission, I don't know that we've seen a male in this format more deserving of it than him...besides Dierks Bentley. Even though I am actually veering into the "I absolutely loathe 'Different For Girls'" lane of the party (which is a shame because I love Elle King and put
Love Stuff on loop in my house at least once or twice a week -- give it a listen if you haven't, as it's more traditionally folk/country than most of what you'll find from the last 15 years in country music itself), I can't knock the fact that A)
Black is a solid album, and B) he puts on a fantastic show. Him, Church, and Underwood should all make a "We Kick Everyone's Asses in this Genre But Can't Get Recognized Anywhere In Nashville For It" club. Long-winded title, but imagine the triple-joint tour. Yes, please! Anyways, Kenny Chesney's big summer tour with Miranda Lambert and Sam Hunt has made for some strong numbers, and he's done pretty darn well this year in terms of radio output between stuff from
The Big Revival and
Cosmic Hallelujah. I think he's already past his CMA haydays after those four (or five? Help?) consecutive Entertainer wins back in the mid-aughts, but he would make for a well-justified nominee, even though I think there've been equally/more deserving artists who've made better music than him in the last year and have brought in some equally-strong touring numbers to take his place (*
Here lies this horse.*).
Another possibility, and don't call me crazy on this just yet, is Chris Stapleton. Would I love to see him get nominated? Absolutely. Do I think he deserves a nomination? Yes. Do I think he should get in over the likes of Underwood, Church, Bentley, Chesney, and even to a slightly lesser extent, Tim McGraw, Zac Brown Band (both of whom I think are too weak politically to be able to snag a spot, but good for them for clearing the second round of voting!), and Keith Urban? No. (But I
do think he should get in over Bryan, Aldean, and Brooks just because he's made better music, but that's just me being snobbish.) With all of that said, though, the CMAs
loooooove making ~statements.~ I imagine everyone at CMA Corporate probably kisses their reflections in the mirror every morning because they played some sort of hand in making Stapleton a household name after last year's performance on the show with Justin Timberlake. Between the fact that he's had one of (or...
the?) top-selling country album(s) of 2016 and his stellar showing on the road, as well as his equally-stellar showing at the Grammys this past year, he could be a dark horse candidate for a spot on the final ballot.
If Miranda Lambert lands in the final five, I'll go on Periscope and live broadcast myself putting my thumb into an electrical socket.
My final predictions for
Entertainer of the Year include
Jason Aldean,
Garth Brooks,
Luke Bryan,
Eric Church, and
Chris Stapleton.
The most competitive category, as usual, will be for
Male Vocalist because there are more smelly and overexposed balls in country music than there is in a Chuck E Cheese ballpit. Unlike Entertainer, though, I don't know that Jason Aldean and Garth Brooks are super likely, partially because they're both extremely bland vocalists. I
do think
Luke Bryan is undoubtedly going to be in that category, as well as
Dierks Bentley and
Eric Church. As for the other 2 nominees, I'm not too sure. I'm confident in counting Sam Hunt out after his not-as-big-as-2014/15 year led him to a slight step down from the limelight (though still staying far, far, far away from irrelevance, obviously), and while I
think he could get in, I don't feel confident enough in saying Blake Shelton is a for-sure spot-holder on the final ballot. (Honestly, I could see them going with six nominees for this category this year.) I think the other two spots, should there only be five, will go to either Chris Stapleton, Keith Urban, or Thomas Rhett. And, to even narrow that down further, I am pretty confident in one of those spots
for sure going to
Chris Stapleton. So between Keith Urban and Thomas Rhett, it's just a matter of if the CMAs want some more deserving veteran blood in there, or if they want some deserving fresh blood, despite the fresher of the two meats running on some incredibly lame releases. Buoyed off of the success of "Die A Happy Man" and "T-Shirt", I think Rhett has better chances.
I'm thinking the
Male Vocalist nominees will be
Dierks Bentley,
Luke Bryan,
Eric Church,
Chris Stapleton, and
Thomas Rhett.
In the
Miranda Lambert's Female Vocalist of the Year™ category, the usual suspects -- being
Kacey Musgraves,
Carrie Underwood, and likely shareholder of the CMA trophy manufacturing company itself
Miranda Lambert -- will undoubtedly be back in the final five, with Musgraves, Underwood, and the other two each vying to get that nameplate with Lambert's name engraved onto it removed before November 2. As for the other 2 nomination spots? The CMAs love
Martina McBride and have nominated her in years where she's done next to nothing (and similarly, they've even
given this award to an artist who's
actually done just about nothing during a few separate encompassing years), so with
Reckless being released and their everlasting love for her, it feels as though she's a good one to bet on getting a nomination. As for that fifth spot, I'm not too sure. We've got competitors such as Kelsea Ballerini, Cam, Maren Morris, and even Jana Kramer and Jennifer Nettles. I'm confident in counting out the likes of Brandy Clark and Margo Price, despite them both having released a couple of the best records in the format of the last year, and while I'd
like to think that Trisha Yearwood's touring stats with Garth Brooks could help her chances, I don't think they'd be enough to top Ballerini, Cam, Morris, Kramer, or Nettles.
Ballerini had a quieter year this year than last, though "Peter Pan" has grown into a well-sized hit. Her touring, though, has been impressive, with a blend of headlining shows and supporting shows running through some pretty sizable crowds. Cam's "Burning House" was carried entirely through the eligibility period, which was bigger than nearly all other songs released by any other female in the format of this year. Maren Morris' breakout has happened during the latter half of the eligibility period (and extremely close to the voting period), which could bode well for her with voters, and the combination of "My Church" and her critical acclaim could make for enough reason to take the last nomination slot. Jana Kramer's year wasn't
as big, but "I Got the Boy" did very well, and while "Circles" kind of floundered, she found some extra footing in the genre and pulled herself out of the one-hit-wonder territory. Jennifer Nettles, strong and incredible as she and her music may be, probably won't be the one to take that fifth spot, but I just love "Unlove You" too much to ignore it/her impeccable vocals.
I think the four people that will be losing to
Miranda Lambert for
Female Vocalist this year will be
Carrie Underwood,
Kacey Musgraves,
Martina McBride, and
Kelsea Ballerini.
Album of the Year is usually constructed with a few solid options and then, almost always, one of the two absurd choices ends up winning. Rarely does the deserving winner actually, uh, win. Proof: in 2015,
Traveller beat
Pain Killer, Pageant Material, The Big Revival, and Old Boots, New Dirt. Perfect. In 2013, though,
Based On A True Story... beat
Red,
Blown Away,
Tornado, and
Same Trailer, Different Park. So not every year is perfect, and since last year was pretty great, we can't
actually expect the CMAs to get it right two years running.
I think the very likely nominees for this year's Album award include
Kill the Lights,
Storyteller, and
Tangled Up. Those three have seen consistently strong sales and single success, both at radio and on the charts. Beneath
Traveller, they've remained towards the top throughout most of the year in the genre. Additionally, they've had most of each of their runs, from start to present, within the eligibility period.
For the other two slots, there are only a few genuinely strong contenders I can see sneaking in, including
Damn Country Music,
Hero,
If I'm Honest, and
Mr. Misunderstood. Church's album came out the night of the CMAs last year, and he's done well in this category in the past, having won in 2012 for
Chief. Personally, I'd
loooove to see him get nominated here, and I honestly think he will, but those other three have equally compelling cases attached to 'em.
Damn Country Music holds "Humble and Kind", which I think will be a strong contender for both Single and Song of the Year this year. Tim McGraw hasn't really been much of a CMA-winning (or even too much of a CMA-nominated) kind of guy these past few years, so the likelihood of him getting into Album of the Year this year is questionable to me, but it's a decent possibility.
Hero, while put out by a very new artist, was released close to the deadline (and is therefore very fresh in the minds of voters), has seen strong critical acclaim, and has even gotten some pretty great commercial success upon debut and its summer coursing.
If I'm Honest is a Blake Shelton album, and I think it holds a strong chance of getting nominated not because of its quality (because it's average at best), but because if he could actually beat the likes of Musgraves, Underwood, Swift, and Little Big Town in each of their musical strongpoints with something as absolutely awful as
Based On A True Story..., then he could get nominated for this album
handily.
I think the final five nominees for this year's
Album of the Year will be
Kill the Lights (Luke Bryan),
Storyteller (Carrie Underwood),
Tangled Up (Thomas Rhett),
Mr. Misunderstood (Eric Church), and
If I'm Honest (Blake Shelton).
I'm terrible at figuring out what will be nominated for
Single and
Song of the year, but I can safely bet on
Thomas Rhett's
"Die A Happy Man,
" Cam's
"Burning House,
" and
Tim McGraw's
"Humble and Kind" all being in the mix. After that is where it always gets murky. Maybe Maren Morris' "My Church" will get some love? Maybe Florida Georgia Line's actually-bearable "H.O.L.Y." will see some warmth in the Single category? Chris Janson's "Buy Me A Boat" could definitely get into either one (or both) categories, as could Charles Kelley's "The Driver". These categories are always so difficult for me to navigate. I'll just go for a crapshoot prediction on both and say...
Single of the Year will include
"Die A Happy Man" (Thomas Rhett), "Burning House" (Cam), "Humble and Kind" (Tim McGraw), "H.O.L.Y." (Florida Georgia Line), and
"Buy Me A Boat" (Chris Janson).
Song of the Year will consist of
"Die A Happy Man" (Thomas Rhett), "Burning House" (Cam), "Humble and Kind" (Tim McGraw),
"My Church" (Maren Morris), and
"The Driver" (Charles Kelley).
---
Less in-depth and more prediction-oriented:
Vocal Group of the Year nominees will be
Little Big Town, Old Dominion, Parmalee, Rascal Flatts, and
Zac Brown Band. I think this will be the year that we see this category Antebellum-less for the first time since their entrance into it in 2009.
Vocal Duo of the Year will go to
Florida Georgia Line again, but will also see nominations for
Brothers Osborne, Dan + Shay, Joey + Rory, and
Maddie & Tae. Nothing too surprising here, I don't think, though it is sadly noteworthy that this'll be the last year Joey + Rory may ever be mentioned here. </3
New Artist will include
Cam, Maren Morris,
Kelsea Ballerini (again),
Brothers Osborne, and
Cole Swindell (again). I will literally never understand how or why artists can be nominated here for, what is it, three years after their debut if they don't win the first one or two times? Whatever the rule is, it's illogical as all hell, but I
do think, should she actually receive the nomination, Ballerini will win it.
I see
Music Video of the Year, or
The Bone Thrown to the Dogs That WME Doesn't Put Enough Energy into Blocking From Any Wins award, including
"Burning House" (Cam), "Fire Away" (Chris Stapleton), "Humble and Kind" (Tim McGraw), "Smoke Break" (Carrie Underwood), and
"Die A Happy Man" (Thomas Rhett), I guess. This one's another crapshoot of a category, but it's a good chance for McGraw or Cam to try and win against Stapleton or Rhett. Underwood already knows the drill for her.
Had "Setting the World On Fire" been released early enough to make the eligibility period, I think it would've been both nominated
and won
Musical Event of the Year. Luckily for
these five, it wasn't. My completely shot-in-the-dark guesses for this category include
"Different For Girls" (Dierks Bentley/Elle King), "The Fighter" (Keith Urban/Carrie Underwood), "The Driver" (Charles Kelley/Dierks Bentley/Eric Paslay), "Home Alone Tonight" (Luke Bryan/Karen Fairchild), and
"Think of You" (Chris Young/Cassadee Pope). I could see
"Without A Fight" (Brad Paisley/Demi Lovato),
"You Are My Sunshine" (Morgane Stapleton/Chris Stapleton), and/or
"Go Ahead And Break My Heart" (Blake Shelton/Gwen Stefani) subbing out any of the latter four, to be honest. I think "Different For Girls" is the only one I'm certain will make it in there. Don't really know with this one, and don't really care, as I'm only a fan of about two or three of 'em ("The Driver", "Think of You", and "You Are My Sunshine").
A few other predictions for the 50th anniversary show, which
should be a time for everyone to dress to impress and look genuinely decent and put together:
-Cole Swindell will show up wearing a stupid GS hat.
-Luke Bryan will wear jeans.
-Jason Aldean will wear jeans.
-Florida Georgia Line will wear jeans without pockets.
-Brad Paisley will wear a shirt that says "I love Country radio programmers so much."
-Justin Moore will wear jeans.
-Blake Shelton will wear jeans.
-Not a single male artist will smile, except for Luke Bryan.
-All of the B-list, C-list, and D-list male artists at the show will wear jeans.
Some wishes for the show:
-Dolly Parton presents Entertainer of the Year.
-Beyoncé performs "Daddy Lessons". (I've personally had this prediction pegged ever since
Lemonade came out back in April and I'm still sticking by it.)
-Pink performs with Chesney on "Setting the World On Fire."
-Garth Brooks performs with Trisha Yearwood.
-The Dixie Chicks come back and do something -- perform, present, wave at the camera from the front row, etc. I don't care; I just want to see them there again.