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Post by Mike is BAD on Aug 14, 2016 7:30:18 GMT -5
FINAL PREDICTIONS!!!
1. Cold Water (35,800)
2. Closer (35,200)
3. Cheap Thrills (33,800)
4. TIWYCF (31,900)
5. Ride (29,000)
6. Heathens (28,800)
7. One Dance (26,800)
8. Don't Let Me Down (26,700)
9. Treat You Better (26,000)
10. CSTF (24,800)
11. Send My Love (24,800)
12. Needed Me (24,700)
13. WDTA (23,000)
14. Into You (21,100)
15. For Free (20,600)
16. Too Good (20,100)
17. Sucker For Pain (17,500)
18. Controlla (17,000)
19. Panda (16,000)
20. Never Be Like You (15,700)
21. Me Too (15,100)
22. Let Me Love You (14,400)
23. Gold (14,100)
24. Broccoli (13,400)
25. All In My Head Flex (13,000)
32. Tiimmy Turner (11,800)
34. Don't Mind (11,600)
99. Hit Or Miss (4,000)
Don't Mind won't make it past 9/31. Sad
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2016 9:46:10 GMT -5
Final Predictions.
1 Closer (#1 Sales, #1 Streaming, 33,000 Total Points)
2 Cheap Thrills
3 Cold Water
4 This Is What You Came For
5 Heathens
6 Ride
7 One Dance
8 Don't Let Me Down
9 Needed Me
10 Can't Stop The Feeling!
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MTSChart21
4x Platinum Member
"My Name's Blurryface"
If I can't be close to you, I'll settle for the ghost of you
Joined: October 2015
Posts: 4,347 
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Post by MTSChart21 on Aug 15, 2016 15:03:42 GMT -5
Ok, so I have been considering this idea for a while and I think it's time I get other people's opinions. So, in Az Paynter's TOP 40 CHART game, you predict the spin amount for the #1 as a tiebreaker. I have been thinking doing the same thing and having people estimate the #1's point amount. There are 2 reasons why I haven't already implemented this idea: -There could be a week that they don't give us the fall data (sales, radio, streaming numbers) for the #1 on the top 10 article -Not everyone really has that much access to chart data |
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jeiboy
Gold Member
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 828
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Post by jeiboy on Aug 15, 2016 15:05:16 GMT -5
Early predictions
1. Closer 329 (+5)
2. Cheap Thrills 311 (-1)
3. Cold Water 298 (-1)
4. Heathens 282 (=)
5. This Is What You Came For 277 (-2)
6. Ride 269 (+1)
7. One Dance 257 (-2)
8. Don't Let Me Down 251 (=)
9. Needed Me 250 (+1)
10. Can't Stop The Feeling 246 (-1)
11. Send My Love 225 (=)
12. Treat You Better 213 (+2)
13. Into You 201 (=)
14. Too Good 186
15. For Free 180
16. Sucker For Pain 172
17. We Don't Talk Anymore 166 (+2)
18. Broccoli 157 (+a lot)
19. Panda 153
20. Never Be Like You 152 (+a lot)
21. Let Me Love You 146 (-9)
34. Rise 109 (-5)
41. This Girl 96 (+a whole lot)
47. Make Me 88 (-4)
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Post by truemusicreviews on Aug 15, 2016 15:42:13 GMT -5
Ok, so I have been considering this idea for a while and I think it's time I get other people's opinions. So, in Az Paynter's TOP 40 CHART game, you predict the spin amount for the #1 as a tiebreaker. I have been thinking doing the same thing and having people estimate the #1's point amount. There are 2 reasons why I haven't already implemented this idea: -There could be a week that they don't give us the fall data (sales, radio, streaming numbers) for the #1 on the top 10 article -Not everyone really has that much access to chart data Honestly, I'm clueless on where Billboard gets all of its data. |
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Post by flextamcsignals on Aug 15, 2016 15:45:09 GMT -5
You think Ride missed its shot at cracking the top 5? I certainly hope not.
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atg
2x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 2,994
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Post by atg on Aug 15, 2016 15:55:23 GMT -5
Final Predictions
1. Closer
2. Cold Water
3. Cheap Thrills
4. TIWYCF
5. Heathens
6. Ride
7. One Dance
8. DLMD
9. Treat You Better
10. CSTF
11. Send My Love
12. Needed Me
13. Into You
14. WDTA
15. For Free
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Bigfatliar 3
Platinum Member
cool people call songs "joint" which is little inappropriate to me cuz i think of an elbow or someth
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Post by Bigfatliar 3 on Aug 15, 2016 16:31:31 GMT -5
1. Closer (33.81) 113k sales, 19.1 m streams 2. Cold Water (32.28) 3. Cheap Thrills (31.87) 4. This Is What You Came For (29.94) 5. Heathens (28.98) 6. One Dance (28.55) 7. Ride (27.49) 8. Don't Let Me Down (26.07) 9. Needed Me (25.88) 10. Can't Stop The Feeling (25.87) #9 and #10 maybe flipped  |
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jtd Thee Stallion
6x Platinum Member
Meet Me @ The Altar Fan Account
Joined: September 2015
Posts: 6,842
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Post by jtd Thee Stallion on Aug 15, 2016 17:20:21 GMT -5
1. Closer
2. Cold Water
3. Cheap Thrills
4. This Is What You Came For
5. Heathens
6. One Dance
7. Ride
8. Don't Let Me Down
9. Needed Me
10. Treat You Better
11. Send My Love (To Your New Lover)
12. Into You
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Post by truemusicreviews on Aug 15, 2016 20:10:00 GMT -5
You think Ride missed its shot at cracking the top 5? I certainly hope not. If it will crack the Top 5, it will be in two weeks from today. If it can't do it then, it will never crack the Top 5. Honestly, I doubt it will crack the Top 5 at all. |
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WILL
Gold Member
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 729
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Post by WILL on Aug 15, 2016 21:16:15 GMT -5
1. Closer
2. Cold Water
3. Cheap Thrills
4. This is What You Came For
5. Heathens
6. Ride
7. One Dance
8. Don't Let Me Down
9. Into You
10. Can't Stop the Feeling!
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jarhys
Gold Member
Joined: March 2014
Posts: 958
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Post by jarhys on Aug 15, 2016 23:54:13 GMT -5
1. Closer (+5)
2. Cold Water (=)
3. Cheap Thrills (-2)
4. This Is What You Came For (-1)
5. One Dance (=)
6. Heathens (-2)
7. Ride (=)
8. Can't Stop The Feeling! (+1)
9. Don't Let Me Down (-1)
10. Needed Me (=)
---
11. Send My Love
12. Treat You Better
13. Into You
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leo2016
New Member
Joined: July 2016
Posts: 9
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Post by leo2016 on Aug 16, 2016 0:15:52 GMT -5
Early predictions 1. Closer 329 (+5)2. Cheap Thrills 311 (-1)3. Cold Water 298 (-1)4. Heathens 282 (=) 5. This Is What You Came For 277 (-2)6. Ride 269 (+1)7. One Dance 257 (-2)8. Don't Let Me Down 251 (=) 9. Needed Me 250 (+1)10. Can't Stop The Feeling 246 (-1)11. Send My Love 225 (=) 12. Treat You Better 213 (+2)13. Into You 201 (=) 14. Too Good 186 15. For Free 180 16. Sucker For Pain 172 17. We Don't Talk Anymore 166 (+2)18. Broccoli 157 (+a lot)19. Panda 153 20. Never Be Like You 152 (+a lot)21. Let Me Love You 146 (-9)34. Rise 109 (-5)41. This Girl 96 (+a whole lot)47. Make Me 88 (-4)No offence to you or anything, but this looks exactly the same as ?? |
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MTSChart21
4x Platinum Member
"My Name's Blurryface"
If I can't be close to you, I'll settle for the ghost of you
Joined: October 2015
Posts: 4,347
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Post by MTSChart21 on Aug 16, 2016 0:27:25 GMT -5
Early predictions 1. Closer 329 (+5)2. Cheap Thrills 311 (-1)3. Cold Water 298 (-1)4. Heathens 282 (=) 5. This Is What You Came For 277 (-2)6. Ride 269 (+1)7. One Dance 257 (-2)8. Don't Let Me Down 251 (=) 9. Needed Me 250 (+1)10. Can't Stop The Feeling 246 (-1)11. Send My Love 225 (=) 12. Treat You Better 213 (+2)13. Into You 201 (=) 14. Too Good 186 15. For Free 180 16. Sucker For Pain 172 17. We Don't Talk Anymore 166 (+2)18. Broccoli 157 (+a lot)19. Panda 153 20. Never Be Like You 152 (+a lot)21. Let Me Love You 146 (-9)34. Rise 109 (-5)41. This Girl 96 (+a whole lot)47. Make Me 88 (-4)No offence to you or anything, but this looks exactly the same as ?? And that person on Twitter takes those predictions from a certain user on ATRL. |
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Bigfatliar 3
Platinum Member
cool people call songs "joint" which is little inappropriate to me cuz i think of an elbow or someth
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Post by Bigfatliar 3 on Aug 16, 2016 5:32:26 GMT -5
Ok, so I have been considering this idea for a while and I think it's time I get other people's opinions. So, in Az Paynter 's TOP 40 CHART game, you predict the spin amount for the #1 as a tiebreaker. I have been thinking doing the same thing and having people estimate the #1's point amount. There are 2 reasons why I haven't already implemented this idea: -There could be a week that they don't give us the fall data (sales, radio, streaming numbers) for the #1 on the top 10 article -Not everyone really has that much access to chart data Honestly, I'm clueless on where Billboard gets all of its data. The biggest gap for everyone is streaming. Most of ppl was predicting Heathens will be #5 but then #4 instead. The sales for #1 always published on article, right? So, maybe predicting the actual sales for #1 will be the most feasible. But we need other metric since predict sales between 62k-65k have mini range. Plus streaming will be good tho. But Radio AI will be hard since the article not mention it. (i.e Sia had 61k sales and 13.1 m streams written on article, but only mention CT topping the pop chart, not number) |
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Post by truemusicreviews on Aug 16, 2016 6:39:15 GMT -5
Honestly, I'm clueless on where Billboard gets all of its data. The biggest gap for everyone is streaming. Most of ppl was predicting Heathens will be #5 but then #4 instead. The sales for #1 always published on article, right? So, maybe predicting the actual sales for #1 will be the most feasible. But we need other metric since predict sales between 62k-65k have mini range. Plus streaming will be good tho. But Radio AI will be hard since the article not mention it. (i.e Sia had 61k sales and 13.1 m streams written on article, but only mention CT topping the pop chart, not number) Tbh, I'm just confused on where Billboard obtains its streaming data. I merely use Spotify and Youtube to track streaming, but I'm not sure if both platforms are representative of Billboard's entire set of streaming data. |
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Bigfatliar 3
Platinum Member
cool people call songs "joint" which is little inappropriate to me cuz i think of an elbow or someth
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Post by Bigfatliar 3 on Aug 16, 2016 6:55:06 GMT -5
The biggest gap for everyone is streaming. Most of ppl was predicting Heathens will be #5 but then #4 instead. The sales for #1 always published on article, right? So, maybe predicting the actual sales for #1 will be the most feasible. But we need other metric since predict sales between 62k-65k have mini range. Plus streaming will be good tho. But Radio AI will be hard since the article not mention it. (i.e Sia had 61k sales and 13.1 m streams written on article, but only mention CT topping the pop chart, not number) Tbh, I'm just confused on where Billboard obtains its streaming data. I merely use Spotify and Youtube to track streaming, but I'm not sure if both platforms are representative of Billboard's entire set of streaming data. there's other source for streaming other than YT and Spotify, but yes hard to know the actual total streaming number for other streaming service since they dont provide their number, except we have some connection with Nielsen that Billboard did. I usually estimate 1-6 m streams depends on its popularity. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2016 7:33:24 GMT -5
I just can't believe Closer is probably going to block Cold Water from becoming #1 this week. :O
IF we get the Cold Water video next week, things will get interesting for 9/10 chart.
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Leo ✔
Diamond Member
Julia Michaels Stan
Happy happy happy ♪
Joined: June 2016
Posts: 72,919
My Charts
Pronouns: He/him/his
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Post by Leo ✔ on Aug 16, 2016 9:57:42 GMT -5
Ok, so I have been considering this idea for a while and I think it's time I get other people's opinions. So, in Az Paynter's TOP 40 CHART game, you predict the spin amount for the #1 as a tiebreaker. I have been thinking doing the same thing and having people estimate the #1's point amount. There are 2 reasons why I haven't already implemented this idea: -There could be a week that they don't give us the fall data (sales, radio, streaming numbers) for the #1 on the top 10 article -Not everyone really has that much access to chart data I don't have access to chart data, and also, I don't have a system to make predictions, I made random predictions according to another posts and the movement in AI. Btw. 1) Closer (All it's placing this in 1st place, I wanna be popular) 2) Cheap Thrills 3) Cold Water 4) TIWYCF 5) Heathens 6) Ride 7) One Dance 8) Don't Let Me Down 9) Send My Love (To Your New Lover) 10) Can't Stop The Feeling! (I doubt here between this and Needed Me) |
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Post by Parerastarr10 on Aug 16, 2016 13:16:51 GMT -5
1. Closer
2. Cheap Thrills
3. Cold Water
4. This Is What You Came For
5. Heathens
6. Ride
7. One Dance
8. Don't Let Me Down
9. Needed Me
10. Send My Love
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2016 14:18:05 GMT -5
Trying a new formula based off last week's numbers and this is what it came up with. But I think it's over-estimating Closer and who knows I'm always off with the 21P songs...
1 Closer 34500
2 Cheap Thrills 32500
3 Cold Water 31100
4 This Is What You Came For 30200
5/6/7 Ride 27500
5/6/7 One Dance 27400
5/6/7 Heathens 27400
8 Don't Let Me Down 25700
9/10 Can't Stop The Feeling 25200
9/10 Needed Me 25200
11 Send My Love 23700
12 Treat You Better 21900
13 Into You 21100
Final Predictions.
1 Closer (#1 Sales, #1 Streaming, 33,000 Total Points)
2 Cheap Thrills
3 Cold Water
4 This Is What You Came For
5 Heathens
6 Ride
7 One Dance
8 Don't Let Me Down
9 Needed Me
10 Can't Stop The Feeling!
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Post by georgetherunner314 on Aug 16, 2016 19:49:07 GMT -5
Don't have enough time to do extended predictions this week... so here's top 13:  Hopefully, I don't regret putting One Dance below DLMD because it seems like a longshot but One Dance is falling fast. I think Closer is a lock for #1 this week. Edit: Well, I updated some data to take advantage of the extra day. Only one change occurred: One Dance is now ahead of DLMD. I bet my original predictions will be correct now  . |
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Post by chicken077 on Aug 16, 2016 21:28:43 GMT -5
School started yesterday for me and it's already getting pretty stressful. Not a lot of time to calculate data so just did some rough calculations this week. Also sort of refined my streaming formula by integrating my old system with calculating streaming trajectories now that I have a couple of weeks of approximate streaming data. Format also won't be as elaborate as last week due to time issues. But here we go, hopefully this time goes better than last week:
1. Closer (35.2k)
2. Cold Water (33.1k)
3. Cheap Thrills (32.0k)
4. This Is What You Came For (28.2k) (Lol I learned to not underestimate TIWYCF's streaming number last week)
5. Heathens (27.9k)
6. Ride (27.5k)
7. One Dance (26.4k)
8. Don't Let Me Down (25.8k)
9. Can't Stop The Feeling (24.4k)
10. Needed Me (24.3k) (Again, I learned to not underestimate Rihanna's streaming lol)
Blurbs:
Closer should easily capture #1 and block Cold Water at #2, pushing down the #1 song for the past 4 weeks Cheap Thrills to #3.
This Is What You Came For has a close competition with Heathens for #4. It could go either way depending on my accuracy of TIWYCF's streaming number. I historically always underestimate Rihanna, so I deliberately added a few figures based off of my results from the past few weeks to TIWYCF's streaming to compensate for that. If my added compensation is still too low or it's around correct, TIWYCF should easily capture #4. If the compensation is too high, then Heathens could be able to get #4. Ride also has a close competition with these two songs, scoring 413 points lower than Heathens according to my predictions. Something tells me that Heathens can maintain its position though.
One Dance collapses in points this week and should get #7. As much as I want Don't Let Me Down to pass One Dance, according to my numbers, One Dance should be safe from Don't Let Me Down (expected to take #8) leap frogging it this week. I do see this pass happening next week, though.
Can't Stop The Feeling also begins collapsing, but maintains its position at #9. Likewise, Needed Me maintains #10 only due to the streaming boost I had to give Rihanna songs due to my historical underestimation. If I didn't give this boost, Send My Love would be returning to the top 10.
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Post by truemusicreviews on Aug 16, 2016 23:33:38 GMT -5
I feel confident this week. "Closer" should easily take the top, primarily due to its stranglehold on streaming and sales numbers. It's still a developing hit on the radio, but "Cheap Thrills" (the projected most-spun song of the week) has shrinking sales and weak streaming. The other songs seem to fall into a pretty natural order. | POS | SONG | POINTS | MOVEMENT | | 1 | "Closer" | 14,478 | +5 | | 2 | "Cold Water" | 12,272 | = | | 3 | "Cheap Thrills" | 11,663 | -2 | | 4 | "This Is What You Came For" | 9,807 | -1 | | 5 | "Heathens" | 9,215 | -1 | | 6 | "Ride" | 7,739 | +1 | | 7 | "One Dance" | 6,436 | -2 | | 8 | "Don't Let Me Down" | 5,647 | = | | 9 | "Can't Stop The Feeling" | 4,076 | = | | 10 | "Needed Me" | 3,604 | = | | 11 | "Send My Love" | 2,588 | = | | 12 | "Treat You Better" | 2,537 | +2 | | 13 | "Into You" | 2,223 | = |
REMINDER: The TMR scale is comparative and not the official point system that the Billboard Hot 100 utilizes. True Music Reviews frequently changes his formula in order to provide more accurate rankings, so comparing weeks may not be the most accurate way of determining a song's chart run. |
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MTSChart21
4x Platinum Member
"My Name's Blurryface"
If I can't be close to you, I'll settle for the ghost of you
Joined: October 2015
Posts: 4,347
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Post by MTSChart21 on Aug 17, 2016 10:29:18 GMT -5
Looks like I'm taking georgetherunner314 's place of doing the extended predictions, lol.  Interesting week on the charts. -"Closer" should get #1 by over 3k points, while "Cold Water" and "Cheap Thrills" will have a close battle that could finish with a gap less than 100 points. -"Heathens" will only take a 1 position fall to #5 this week while gaining in streaming. -"One Dance" should fall another 2 or 3 positions this week in a close battle with "Don't Let Me Down". -"Send My Love (To Your New Lover)" will come close to passing "CAN'T STOP THE FEELING!" for #10, but should just miss out and stay at #11. -"Let Me Love You" should fall from #12 to #23 this week. -"Sit Still, Look Pretty", "This Girl" and "Mama Said" will each make some good jumps this week, while SSLP will be Daya 3rd top 40 hit. -The greatest song ever created, "Hit Or Miss", should come very close to re-entering but will come up just short. EDIT: Jacob Sartorius' "Hit Or Miss" is looking to get around 5m streams this week so that will be enough for a re-entry (around the #90 position) |
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Leo ✔
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Happy happy happy ♪
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Posts: 72,919
My Charts
Pronouns: He/him/his
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Post by Leo ✔ on Aug 17, 2016 12:59:28 GMT -5
MTSChart21 what about "Make Me" Also I hope the jumps to SSLP, NBLY, WDTA, ILUIHU and Gold become true *-*
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Post by kuzgun on Aug 17, 2016 13:19:28 GMT -5
1. Closer
2. Cheap Thrills
3. Cold Water
4. Heathens
5. This Is What You Came For
6. Ride
7. One Dance
8. Don't Let Me Down
9. Needed Me
10. Can't Stop The Feeling!
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MTSChart21
4x Platinum Member
"My Name's Blurryface"
If I can't be close to you, I'll settle for the ghost of you
Joined: October 2015
Posts: 4,347
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Post by MTSChart21 on Aug 17, 2016 13:21:41 GMT -5
MTSChart21 what about "Make Me" Also I hope the jumps to SSLP, NBLY, WDTA, ILUIHU and Gold become true *-* "Make Me..." should getting about 25k sales, 19.5m AI, and 4.5m streams, which would put it around the #50 position with 8.5k points. |
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Post by flextamcsignals on Aug 17, 2016 14:57:14 GMT -5
-The greatest song ever created, "Hit Or Miss", should come very close to re-entering but will come up just short. Did I miss something? Why is Hit or Miss getting a streaming boost? |
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MTSChart21
4x Platinum Member
"My Name's Blurryface"
If I can't be close to you, I'll settle for the ghost of you
Joined: October 2015
Posts: 4,347
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Post by MTSChart21 on Aug 17, 2016 14:59:10 GMT -5
-The greatest song ever created, "Hit Or Miss", should come very close to re-entering but will come up just short. Did I miss something? Why is Hit or Miss getting a streaming boost? Music video, I believe (which I don't understand because I think it got more views last week, idk why it didn't re-enter last week or why its views weren't counted) |
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