Marv
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Post by Marv on Jan 13, 2019 14:09:12 GMT -5
^^^^^^^^^Matt is correct as usual; the assertion that 'Speechless' enjoyed a 'manufactured' multi-week stay at #1 doesn't hold water when you look at the history books and dissect how Nashville operates during the month of December. Bob Kingsley acknowledged 'Speechless' spending a 4th week at #1 this weekend on CT40, so any single which ends any given year at #1 and begins the ensuing year at #1 is going to be credited with those weeks at #1 even during the final two weeks of the year when CAW isn't published.
You can certainly assured that the labels have and certainly will continue to tout all of those weeks at #1 as Reba's label (Valory) did 10 years ago this week with a full page ad in Country Aircheck Weekly (dated 1-19-2010) announcing the release of 'I Keep On Loving You' as the follow-up to her 'FOUR WEEK #1 National Airplay Single', which of course was 'Consider Me Gone'. Kingsley's always acknowledged all of the singles which rose to #1 during the break with an intro such as 'While we were away (for the holidays)'....on his first CT 40 countdown of the new year, and he'll continue to do so, and Mediabase as well as Billboard will also do likewise in tabulating those spins as they've been doing for decades for their respective year-end charts.
Although I don't recall the exact year in which Mediabase replaced Billboard as the chart which Kingsley started to use for his CT40 countdowns, I have no reason not to believe that he certainly cited similar chart events on his ACC shows as well throughout that show's multi-decade run.
Hopefully this mediocre tune will lose 1,200+ spins this week and jut go away ASAP.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jan 13, 2019 21:44:08 GMT -5
Speechless sold about 278k. Good Girl sold about 79k. So Speechless sold 200k more than Good Girl. But country radio's listening population numbers in the tens of millions, and we don't know who these people buying stuff on iTunes are anyway. I guess we can assume if they're buying country songs they listen to country radio (unless they're buying stuff on iTunes precisely because they don't want to listen to radio and prefer to just listen to music through their phones), but as Marv said Speechless has a lot of crossover potential, so maybe these people buying it aren't even country radio listeners. So we really should pay more attention to research than sales, if we pay any attention to sales at all. I personally would completely disregard sales. They're just pointless. It reminds me of the flea rule in high school chemistry class. When you have a number that is so small in comparison to other numbers you're working with, you can just take it out of the equation entirely because it's dwarfed into irrelevance by the bigger numbers. Never mind that sales are not a random sample of the population, while research is. We've acknowledged that research definitely has some flaws with the way it treats females' songs, but we're debating between two males here, so that argument is out the window. When using research to compare the two, Good Girl certainly seems like it reacted better with the audience than Speechless. And for the record, I despise both of these songs, lol. So I'm really just trying to make a point about research here.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 13, 2019 22:01:45 GMT -5
Speechless sold about 278k. Good Girl sold about 79k. So Speechless sold 200k more than Good Girl. But country radio's listening population numbers in the tens of millions, and we don't know who these people buying stuff on iTunes are anyway. I guess we can assume if they're buying country songs they listen to country radio (unless they're buying stuff on iTunes precisely because they don't want to listen to radio and prefer to just listen to music through their phones), but as Marv said Speechless has a lot of crossover potential, so maybe these people buying it aren't even country radio listeners. So we really should pay more attention to research than sales, if we pay any attention to sales at all. I personally would completely disregard sales. They're just pointless. It reminds me of the flea rule in high school chemistry class. When you have a number that is so small in comparison to other numbers you're working with, you can just take it out of the equation entirely because it's dwarfed into irrelevance by the bigger numbers. Never mind that sales are not a random sample of the population, while research is. We've acknowledged that research definitely has some flaws with the way it treats females' songs, but we're debating between two males here, so that argument is out the window. When using research to compare the two, Good Girl certainly seems like it reacted better with the audience than Speechless. And for the record, I despise both of these songs, lol. So I'm really just trying to make a point about research here. I think the fact that it does have more crossover potential, indicates a wider audience of people liked the song more than "Good Girl" and will be more remembered. Research is important, but sales are always a good indication of what is popular and if that wasn't than streaming is as well. With both sales and streaming combined with callout scores, "Speechless" is the bigger hit, that will fall slower on the charts, and be remembered longer. Besides research "Good Girl" has nothing on "Speechless".
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jan 13, 2019 22:09:49 GMT -5
Yeah, if/when they ship this out to pop radio, country radio will probably up the spins to compete with pop stations in their markets, and in that respect y'all are right that Speechless will probably be remembered as the bigger hit. I still think the country radio audience prefers Good Girl, though.
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Post by loveofmusic on Jan 13, 2019 23:10:14 GMT -5
Speechless sold about 278k. Good Girl sold about 79k. So Speechless sold 200k more than Good Girl. But country radio's listening population numbers in the tens of millions, and we don't know who these people buying stuff on iTunes are anyway. I guess we can assume if they're buying country songs they listen to country radio (unless they're buying stuff on iTunes precisely because they don't want to listen to radio and prefer to just listen to music through their phones), but as Marv said Speechless has a lot of crossover potential, so maybe these people buying it aren't even country radio listeners. So we really should pay more attention to research than sales, if we pay any attention to sales at all. I personally would completely disregard sales. They're just pointless. It reminds me of the flea rule in high school chemistry class. When you have a number that is so small in comparison to other numbers you're working with, you can just take it out of the equation entirely because it's dwarfed into irrelevance by the bigger numbers. Never mind that sales are not a random sample of the population, while research is. We've acknowledged that research definitely has some flaws with the way it treats females' songs, but we're debating between two males here, so that argument is out the window. When using research to compare the two, Good Girl certainly seems like it reacted better with the audience than Speechless. And for the record, I despise both of these songs, lol. So I'm really just trying to make a point about research here. I don't think research should be the only thing to pay attention to. There are songs & artists that still get Top 20 hits & have poor callouts. Pretty sure for example, Kane Brown had a recent hit single with mediocre or poor callouts, but he's selling well & looks to be a big star. I think radio should take several factors into account such as callouts, sales, quality of single, etc. Now back to Good Girl. This is an ok song, but Speechless is definitely the bigger hit. It's not just the crossover appeal. I think overall Speechless just had a bigger impact on country charts, streaming, sales, & general buzz. Also, I don't think Good Girl having a little better callouts than Speechless is a big deal especially when Speechless did better in all other aspects as previously mentioned.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jan 13, 2019 23:23:55 GMT -5
Speechless sold about 278k. Good Girl sold about 79k. So Speechless sold 200k more than Good Girl. But country radio's listening population numbers in the tens of millions, and we don't know who these people buying stuff on iTunes are anyway. I guess we can assume if they're buying country songs they listen to country radio (unless they're buying stuff on iTunes precisely because they don't want to listen to radio and prefer to just listen to music through their phones), but as Marv said Speechless has a lot of crossover potential, so maybe these people buying it aren't even country radio listeners. So we really should pay more attention to research than sales, if we pay any attention to sales at all. I personally would completely disregard sales. They're just pointless. It reminds me of the flea rule in high school chemistry class. When you have a number that is so small in comparison to other numbers you're working with, you can just take it out of the equation entirely because it's dwarfed into irrelevance by the bigger numbers. Never mind that sales are not a random sample of the population, while research is. We've acknowledged that research definitely has some flaws with the way it treats females' songs, but we're debating between two males here, so that argument is out the window. When using research to compare the two, Good Girl certainly seems like it reacted better with the audience than Speechless. And for the record, I despise both of these songs, lol. So I'm really just trying to make a point about research here. I don't think research should be the only thing to pay attention to. There are songs & artists that still get Top 20 hits & have poor callouts. Pretty sure for example, Kane Brown had a recent hit single with mediocre or poor callouts, but he's selling well & looks to be a big star. I think radio should take several factors into account such as callouts, sales, quality of single, etc. Now back to Good Girl. This is an ok song, but Speechless is definitely the bigger hit. It's not just the crossover appeal. I think overall Speechless just had a bigger impact on country charts, streaming, sales, & general buzz. Also, I don't think Good Girl having a little better callouts than Speechless is a big deal especially when Speechless did better in all other aspects as previously mentioned. I think I'm about finished arguing my point, so I'll just end the discussion with a few bullets to summarize what I've been trying to articulate. - Sales are irrelevant because of the flea rule
- Research is better because of random sampling
- Flaws in research cause females to test poorly, but we're not discussing any females here so that's irrelevant
- Good Girl researches better than Speechless with a country audience
- Speechless may get more recurrent airplay because it got the holiday shutdown, but that's kind of like cheating
- If Speechless goes to pop radio, country radio will likely try to compete with those stations by upping its rotation but that doesn't make it a bigger hit with country audiences
- Let's wait and see how recurrent airplay works out. If Speechless does get more recurrent spins than Good Girl, it'll be because of the four weeks at #1, not sales or research
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Jan 13, 2019 23:41:27 GMT -5
I don't think research should be the only thing to pay attention to. There are songs & artists that still get Top 20 hits & have poor callouts. Pretty sure for example, Kane Brown had a recent hit single with mediocre or poor callouts, but he's selling well & looks to be a big star. I think radio should take several factors into account such as callouts, sales, quality of single, etc. Now back to Good Girl. This is an ok song, but Speechless is definitely the bigger hit. It's not just the crossover appeal. I think overall Speechless just had a bigger impact on country charts, streaming, sales, & general buzz. Also, I don't think Good Girl having a little better callouts than Speechless is a big deal especially when Speechless did better in all other aspects as previously mentioned. I think I'm about finished arguing my point, so I'll just end the discussion with a few bullets to summarize what I've been trying to articulate. - Sales are irrelevant because of the flea rule
- Research is better because of random sampling
- Flaws in research cause females to test poorly, but we're not discussing any females here so that's irrelevant
- Good Girl researches better than Speechless with a country audience
- Speechless may get more recurrent airplay because it got the holiday shutdown, but that's kind of like cheating
- If Speechless goes to pop radio, country radio will likely try to compete with those stations by upping its rotation but that doesn't make it a bigger hit with country audiences
- Let's wait and see how recurrent airplay works out. If Speechless does get more recurrent spins than Good Girl, it'll be because of the four weeks at #1, not sales or research
Listen, the world doesn’t revolve around radio or callouts. “Speechless” did not “cheat” in any way, shape, or form, it just had good timing. There would be no difference in recurrent play if it peaked in a different time of the year. And about sales: They may not matter that much in the scheme of things, but the truth is that country radio still pays attention to them. About streaming vs. radio audience: What’s better, someone taking time to search for and play a song, or someone listening to country radio when a song happens to come on and they don’t change it? The first, because it shows listener passion in a way radio audience and callout scores can’t.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jan 14, 2019 0:06:24 GMT -5
Radio and callout are a way bigger sample of the population, though.
Dan and Shay are indeed killing Dustin Lynch in streams, 65 million to 28 million. But how many weeks have these songs been out to earn these streams? Speechless has been on the chart 22 weeks and Good Girl has been on the chart 36 weeks. So that's about 2,954,545.45455 streams per week for Speechless, while Good Girl has about 777,777.777778 streams per week. But now are we talking about a radio hit? The radio-listening population numbers in the tens of millions so this is dwarfed. We could, however, say that Speechless was a bigger hit on digital platforms, although not sure how much money labels are making off of sales and streams now.
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bboat11
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Post by bboat11 on Jan 14, 2019 5:37:00 GMT -5
Yeah, if/when they ship this out to pop radio, country radio will probably up the spins to compete with pop stations in their markets, and in that respect y'all are right that Speechless will probably be remembered as the bigger hit. I still think the country radio audience prefers Good Girl, though.I say we let the Pulse Gods settle this once and for all! Turn out for the 2018 Country Rankdown, folks! We'll see which of the above songs is preferred, as well as whether either of them are able to beat the undisputed Queen of Country, Bebe Rexha! Personally, I'm predicting that Dan + Shay will beat Lusty Lunch by at least 50 positions, and Bebe will beat him by at least 10 positions.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jan 14, 2019 7:19:23 GMT -5
Radio and callout are a way bigger sample of the population, though. Dan and Shay are indeed killing Dustin Lynch in streams, 65 million to 28 million. But how many weeks have these songs been out to earn these streams? Speechless has been on the chart 22 weeks and Good Girl has been on the chart 36 weeks. So that's about 2,954,545.45455 streams per week for Speechless, while Good Girl has about 777,777.777778 streams per week. But now are we talking about a radio hit? The radio-listening population numbers in the tens of millions so this is dwarfed. We could, however, say that Speechless was a bigger hit on digital platforms, although not sure how much money labels are making off of sales and streams now. Callout is not representative of a huge chunk of the listening base that is hearing songs on the radio though; it accounts for a much smaller sample size than the millions of people hearing a song on a given day over the airwaves. Sales and streams may not be strictly accounting for country radio listeners, but neither is a small portion of radio listeners providing their feedback to stations. They often seem to put way more stock into it that than they should, and it seems like you're doing the same here.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 14, 2019 8:21:47 GMT -5
Yeah, if/when they ship this out to pop radio, country radio will probably up the spins to compete with pop stations in their markets, and in that respect y'all are right that Speechless will probably be remembered as the bigger hit. I still think the country radio audience prefers Good Girl, though.I say we let the Pulse Gods settle this once and for all! Turn out for the 2018 Country Rankdown, folks! We'll see which of the above songs is preferred, as well as whether either of them are able to beat the undisputed Queen of Country, Bebe Rexha! Personally, I'm predicting that Dan + Shay will beat Lusty Lunch by at least 50 positions, and Bebe will beat him by at least 10 positions. Lusty Lynch! Lmao. That is a good one.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Jan 14, 2019 8:41:31 GMT -5
Dear God if this is the song country fans in 2018/2019 are going to remember, help us all.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Jan 14, 2019 12:23:44 GMT -5
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Post by Naos on Jan 14, 2019 17:04:58 GMT -5
Hot 100: #44 (+3) Country Airplay: #1 (+1) Country Songs: #8 (+2)
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