Billboard 200 6/30/2018: 5SOS vs. The Carters for #1

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Beyonce & JAY-Z vs. 5 Seconds of Summer for No. 1 on Billboard 200 Albums Chart

6/20/2018 by Keith Caulfield

Plus: XXXTentacion’s former No. 1 “?” may return to top five, Nas and Christina Aguilera also set for top 10 debuts.

The Carters’ Everything Is Love and 5 Seconds of Summer’s Youngblood are each vying for a No. 1 debut on next week’s Billboard 200 albums chart, according to industry forecasters.

Youngblood could launch with around 110,000 equivalent album units earned in the week ending June 21. Meanwhile, due to the unique surprise release and staggered rollout of Everything Is Love, a first-week forecast is more difficult to pin down at the moment.

The Billboard 200 chart ranks the most popular albums of the week based on multi-metric consumption, which includes traditional album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). The top 10 of the June 30-dated Billboard 200 chart (where The Carters and 5 Seconds of Summer are slated to bow) is scheduled to be revealed on Billboard’s websites on Sunday, June 24.

The Carters’ Everything Is Love and 5 Seconds of Summer’s Youngblood are each vying for a No. 1 debut on next week’s Billboard 200 albums chart, according to industry forecasters.

Youngblood could launch with around 110,000 equivalent album units earned in the week ending June 21. Meanwhile, due to the unique surprise release and staggered rollout of Everything Is Love, a first-week forecast is more difficult to pin down at the moment.

The Billboard 200 chart ranks the most popular albums of the week based on multi-metric consumption, which includes traditional album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). The top 10 of the June 30-dated Billboard 200 chart (where The Carters and 5 Seconds of Summer are slated to bow) is scheduled to be revealed on Billboard’s websites on Sunday, June 24.

The set -- the group’s third full-length studio effort -- was released via One Mode/Capitol Records across all streamers and on CD, vinyl LP, digital download and even cassette. Youngblood follows 5 Seconds of Summer’s first two full-length studio sets: 2015’s Sounds Good Feels Good and its 2014 self-titled debut, both of which debuted at No. 1. The group also charted with a live set (LIVESOS, No. 13 in 2015) and an introductory EP (She Looks So Perfect, No. 2 in 2014).

Helping 5 Seconds of Summer are sales generated by merchandise/album bundles sold via the group’s official site, as well as a concert ticket/album sale redemption offer with its 2018 U.S. tour.

Youngblood was announced on April 9, and slated for a June 22 release. By June 1, that released date was pushed up to June 15.

Youngblood was introduced by the single “Want You Back,” which bowed on Feb. 22. The cut reached No. 25 on the Pop Songs airplay chart, and was followed the set’s title track, which has so-far climbed to No. 31 (on the most-recently-compiled chart, dated June 23).

Elsewhere in next week’s top 10, watch for XXXTentacion’s former No. 1, ?, to return to the top five. The album is set for a big jump on the chart following the death of the rapper/singer on June 18, after he was shot in Deerfield, Florida. The set could collect over 80,000 units in the week ending June 21 – up from 19,000 in the frame ending June 14, according to Nielsen Music. The album debuted at No. 1 on the March 31-dated list, marking his first leader.

Also in next week’s busy top 10: both Nas’ NASIR and Christina Aguilera’s Liberation should arrive in the region. Both could start with between 70,000 to 75,000 units. If the albums bow in the top 10, they will garner Nas his 11th top 10, and Aguilera her seventh.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Not related to the Billboard 200 per se, but those who have been following the Chart Bat top 10 article for a while might recall they did comparative number for album and digital song sales. Apparently they are bringing those back, but they won't be reported on the articles as they used to be week in and out and only available to magazine and Billboard biz subscribers:

Market Watch Returns to Billboard Bulletin Each Thursday

[kanfad]

Oh yeah, i remember those. Do we have any biz subscribers on here that can maybe share the reports with us?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I'm  hoping Gary will do us the honors. He has been sharing a lot of the charts that are only available on Billboard Biz such as Hot 100 Recurrents, Bubbling Under Hot 100 and On-Demand Streaming Songs.

BTW, I thought that one reason they had stopped mentioning the comparable totals to the previous week and comparable week was their embarassment in having to explain the continuing decline in sales trend week in and out.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

XXXTentacion's Music Streams Climb 549% Following Death

6/21/2018 by Keith Caulfield

On the day of XXXTentacion’s death, June 18, on-demand streams of his music in the U.S. rose by 549 percent, according to Nielsen Music.

On Monday, the rapper/singer’s catalog of songs collected 59.6 million streams (audio and video combined) -- up from 9.2 million on June 17.

XXXTentacion’s most streamed songs (in terms of on-demand streams) on June 18 were: “Sad!” (8.97 million; up 408 percent from 1.77 million), “Jocelyn Flores” (4.46 million; up 628 percent from 613,000), “Moonlight” (4.23 million; up 370 percent from 900,000), “Changes” (4.04 million; up 462 percent from 719,000) and “F**k Love,” featuring Trippie Redd (3.83 million; up 499 percent from 639,000).

Sad!” was the artist’s only top 10 hit on the Billboard Hot 100 chart before he died, peaking at No. 7 on the March 31-dated list. The song is housed on XXXTentacion’s ? album, which debuted atop the Billboard 200 chart that same week, marking his first chart-topper. He previously hit the top 10 on the Billboard 200 with 17, in 2017, which peaked at No. 2.

Industry forecasters suggest ? return to the top five on next week’s Billboard 200 chart (dated June 30), with over 80,000 equivalent album units earned in the week ending June 21. On the current chart (dated June 23, reflecting the tracking week ending June 14), the set stood at No. 24 with 19,000 units earned, according to Nielsen Music.

The 17 album also could vault back to the top 10, with more than 50,000 units earned. On the June 23-dated list, the set was No. 60 with 10,000 units.

XXXTentacion made his Billboard chart debut in February 2017 and collected 16 hits on the Hot 100 and three entries on the Billboard 200 during his lifetime. However, his chart success was concurrent with consistent legal trouble. At the time of his death, he was awaiting trial on more than a dozen felony charges and allegations of domestic violence against his then-pregnant girlfriend.

[TakeMe]

Jun 21, 2018 22:52:25 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

XXXTentacion's Music Streams Climb 549% Following Death

6/21/2018 by Keith Caulfield

On the day of XXXTentacion’s death, June 18, on-demand streams of his music in the U.S. rose by 549 percent, according to Nielsen Music.

On Monday, the rapper/singer’s catalog of songs collected 59.6 million streams (audio and video combined) -- up from 9.2 million on June 17.

XXXTentacion’s most streamed songs (in terms of on-demand streams) on June 18 were: “Sad!” (8.97 million; up 408 percent from 1.77 million), “Jocelyn Flores” (4.46 million; up 628 percent from 613,000), “Moonlight” (4.23 million; up 370 percent from 900,000), “Changes” (4.04 million; up 462 percent from 719,000) and “F**k Love,” featuring Trippie Redd (3.83 million; up 499 percent from 639,000).

Sad!” was the artist’s only top 10 hit on the Billboard Hot 100 chart before he died, peaking at No. 7 on the March 31-dated list. The song is housed on XXXTentacion’s ? album, which debuted atop the Billboard 200 chart that same week, marking his first chart-topper. He previously hit the top 10 on the Billboard 200 with 17, in 2017, which peaked at No. 2.

Industry forecasters suggest ? return to the top five on next week’s Billboard 200 chart (dated June 30), with over 80,000 equivalent album units earned in the week ending June 21. On the current chart (dated June 23, reflecting the tracking week ending June 14), the set stood at No. 24 with 19,000 units earned, according to Nielsen Music.

The 17 album also could vault back to the top 10, with more than 50,000 units earned. On the June 23-dated list, the set was No. 60 with 10,000 units.

XXXTentacion made his Billboard chart debut in February 2017 and collected 16 hits on the Hot 100 and three entries on the Billboard 200 during his lifetime. However, his chart success was concurrent with consistent legal trouble. At the time of his death, he was awaiting trial on more than a dozen felony charges and allegations of domestic violence against his then-pregnant girlfriend.

So given this information, does this mean SAD hitting number one is no longer a possibility?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I'm not sure. The second full day for Spotify was greater than the first, with the third one becoming the record setting day for U.S. stream for a song there. In YT, Music Insights has been messed, but monitoring kworb's daily WW views, it had its peak during the first 24 hours and has dropped somewhat over the last couple of days. Given the overall weakness of the top 5, I do think it has a chance. My change for Sad! in the Hot 100 predictions thread is based on my gut feeling.

[Mayman]

I remember those market watch numbers were included with the chart beat page in the magazine. I always wondered why they stopped writing articles and cool stax about the charts completely at the end pages of each magazine.

[Enigma.]

Jun 21, 2018 23:46:30 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^I'm not sure. The second full day for Spotify was greater than the first, with the third one becoming the record setting day for U.S. stream for a song there. In YT, Music Insights has been messed, but monitoring kworb's daily WW views, it had its peak during the first 24 hours and has dropped somewhat over the last couple of days. Given the overall weakness of the top 5, I do think it has a chance. My change for Sad! in the Hot 100 predictions thread is based on my gut feeling.

Huh? Sad's third day after his death was 3.1m, down 1.3m

Or did I misunderstand?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^So, Sad! managed 14.3 MM US Spotify streams for the week. On Monday, the day of his death, it managed 1.4 MM, Tuesday 4.4 MM, Wednesday 3.1 MM and yesterday 2.7 MM. Yes, I seem to have gotten confused as to when the US Spotify daily record for a song was set, which was Tuesday.

BTW, I don't think the latter will last that long. It is quite probable Nice for What might reset the record on Friday next week.

[Choco]

So, even Billboard has no idea what the Carters album is gonna do.