rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,027
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Post by rockgolf on Mar 29, 2019 11:22:45 GMT -5
There will be one overwhelming story on this chart.
Billie Ellish.
The album will be a streaming monster, so I'd expect most of her previous charted tracks to re-enter the Hot 100 and most if not all the album tracks to also chart for at least a week.
One double oddity: The opening track is titled "!!!!!!" and is 14 seconds long.
If it charts, and I expect it will at least in the lower regions, it will not only be the shortest track to reach the Hot 100 in Billboard history, it will, by most algorithms, be the alphabetically first title.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Mar 29, 2019 11:32:39 GMT -5
^If enough of the album's songs debut or re-enter in the top 50 similar to what happened the week thank u, next was released, I wonder how many of the older songs will be sent into recurrency prematurely as has happened with other album bombs. Assuming I Like It manages to chart on the 4/6/2019 dated Hot 100, I think it will be definitely one of them. Tequila, Lucid Dreams, Taki Taki and probably Youngblood would be other candidates.
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tanooki
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2019 Breakthrough
lucia gta 6
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Post by tanooki on Mar 29, 2019 11:39:22 GMT -5
I hope bury a friend reaches the top 10, I have a feeling that bad guy might debut top 10 as well
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ddlz
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Joined: June 2011
Posts: 2,165
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Post by ddlz on Mar 29, 2019 11:52:29 GMT -5
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2019 11:57:38 GMT -5
"bad guy" will have a full first tracking week, unlike "bury a friend". First day numbers are gonna be interesting, I could see this become her highest charting song since it seems to be the fan favorite on the album so far and it's plastered everywhere on Spotify.
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Post by hot100predictions on Mar 29, 2019 14:08:04 GMT -5
Have a feeling, 'bad guy' is going to debut with very high numbers maybe higher than Sucker, 3.5-3.7 million on Spotify? Already #3 on AM, coming for #1 in the next update. This may be her first #1. Sales aren't bad too, #19 on iTunes and a new video.
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WILL
Gold Member
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 729 
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Post by WILL on Mar 29, 2019 14:43:51 GMT -5
I don't think !!!!! is even eligible to chart. I believe that a song has to be at least 30 seconds for a stream to count. Unless tens of thousands of people solely buy it (which won't happen), it won't chart.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Mar 29, 2019 15:49:50 GMT -5
!!!!! is #10 in AppleMusic. So that makes it 6 out of the top 10 and 13 out of the top 26 in half a day of activity there.
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Post by hot100predictions on Mar 29, 2019 15:59:25 GMT -5
bad guy is on it's way to be Billie's first top 10, and possibly her first #1.
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Post by reputainbow on Mar 29, 2019 16:37:36 GMT -5
really hoping that "bad guy" debuts in the top 10. i think the full tracking week + music video will give it a major advantage compared to when "bury a friend" was released, so a top 10 debut seems more likely.
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Post by owenlovesmusic on Mar 29, 2019 16:47:44 GMT -5
#1 trending on Twitter is “Bad Guy”
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xyz
New Member
Joined: February 2019
Posts: 123
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Post by xyz on Mar 29, 2019 19:25:50 GMT -5
Billie album is great. I am really thrilled to see an artist like her having such success in this day and age.
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Post by Naos on Mar 29, 2019 19:37:03 GMT -5
^If enough of the album's songs debut or re-enter in the top 50 similar to what happened the week thank u, next was released, I wonder how many of the older songs will be sent into recurrency prematurely as has happened with other album bombs. Assuming I Like It manages to chart on the 4/6/2019 dated Hot 100, I think it will be definitely one of them. Tequila, Lucid Dreams, Taki Taki and probably Youngblood would be other candidates. Could "Baby Shark" be a victim of it as well? |
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Post by hot100predictions on Mar 29, 2019 20:23:43 GMT -5
It seems likely that "bad guy" will receive around 10-15 million views on YouTube, likely 9 million of those views from the U.S. It is one pace to become #1.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Mar 29, 2019 20:29:23 GMT -5
^If enough of the album's songs debut or re-enter in the top 50 similar to what happened the week thank u, next was released, I wonder how many of the older songs will be sent into recurrency prematurely as has happened with other album bombs. Assuming I Like It manages to chart on the 4/6/2019 dated Hot 100, I think it will be definitely one of them. Tequila, Lucid Dreams, Taki Taki and probably Youngblood would be other candidates. Could "Baby Shark" be a victim of it as well?
It would depend on whether Billboard will apply the top 50 Hot 100 rule even though it hasn't charted 20 weeks yet.
Another interesting case would be Close Friends if it manages to stick around this week.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2019 21:07:15 GMT -5
It seems likely that "bad guy" will receive around 10-15 million views on YouTube, likely 9 million of those views from the U.S. It is one pace to become #1. Most of her streams from Spotify are global. No way she will get 9M out of 15M just from the US. This song will possibly debut in the top 10, drop badly the following week, and, if it's a hit, stabilize in the 20s or 30s on the Hot 100. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2019 21:11:19 GMT -5
Could "Baby Shark" be a victim of it as well?
It would depend on whether Billboard will apply the top 50 Hot 100 rule even though it hasn't charted 20 weeks yet.
Another interesting case would be Close Friends if it manages to stick around this week.
I think if Baby Shark falls below top 50 without gaining before achieving 20 weeks, it will go recurrent since it's old song. If it gains the following week and can chart above top 50, they will let it go back. |
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cedric
Gold Member
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 566
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Post by cedric on Mar 29, 2019 23:03:20 GMT -5
Will When The Party's Over re-enter if it got below #50?
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kcdawg13
7x Platinum Member
You Are Now Listening to 103.5 Dawn FM
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Post by kcdawg13 on Mar 29, 2019 23:42:55 GMT -5
Old Town Road up to #4 on iTunes, should be #2 after Luke Bryan and Blake Shelton's boost wears off.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2019 23:50:41 GMT -5
Will When The Party's Over re-enter if it got below #50? No |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Mar 29, 2019 23:54:30 GMT -5
Will When The Party's Over re-enter if it got below #50? It would need to be above #50 to re-enter, however since it's also gaining in airplay it could reappear below the 50 if Billboard chooses to let it do so. (Hooray for inconsistent rules!) There's quite a bit of hype behind her album and to add to the fact WTPO is going to have that extra airplay on its side, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if it does manage to re-enter above #50 anyway. Of course we'll know for sure once we get the first day streaming numbers tomorrow. |
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rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on Mar 30, 2019 0:25:34 GMT -5
It has two avenues to re-enter:
-A new peak on radio to coincide with its gains in sales and streaming this week (as it would be gaining in all metrics).
-The sales and streaming boost giving it a gain past its original peak (#52). So, it could get as low as #51 and they could be generous and allow it back.
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Abbaschand
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Joined: July 2016
Posts: 1,617
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Post by Abbaschand on Mar 30, 2019 1:54:58 GMT -5
I know she's currently famous in the US, but I never heard a single mention of her name in my country. Judging by her music, her music is what I considered "abnormal" music. It's in the same vein of Lorde and Halsey, but much, much worse. And holy s**t, she's one whole year younger than me? What am I doing with my life. |
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Post by hot100predictions on Mar 30, 2019 8:20:55 GMT -5
Billie Eilish First-Day Streams on Spotify U.S. (03/29/2019):
1. bad guy - 2,931,099
2. wish you were gay - 2,039,013
3. all the good girls go to hell - 1,817,790
4. xanny - 1,793,874
5. bury a friend - 1,718,907
7. you should see me in a crown - 1,608,603
8. when the party's over - 1,592,762
9. my strange addiction - 1,502,995
12. ilomilo - 1,287,146
13. 8 - 1,211,771
14. listen before i go - 1,198,677
15. i love you - 1,195,368
22. goodbye - 937,935
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Post by hot100predictions on Mar 30, 2019 8:21:32 GMT -5
13 out of 14 songs charted above 1 million streams, impressive first-day for Billie.
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yuh yuh
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donde voy, tu siempre iras - donde estoy, tu siempre estaras
Joined: August 2015
Posts: 2,680
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Post by yuh yuh on Mar 30, 2019 8:33:50 GMT -5
Wow amazing numbers for Billie. To be this successful while being this young.
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narp
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Post by narp on Mar 30, 2019 8:42:14 GMT -5
EWWW EWWW BILLY EYELASH EWWW EWWWWWW YUCK FÜCK EWW GO AWAY BILLY EYELASH EWW EWW
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mako
Platinum Member
formerly known as "the one letter"
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Post by mako on Mar 30, 2019 8:44:09 GMT -5
EWWW EWWW BILLY EYELASH EWWW EWWWWWW YUCK FÜCK EWW GO AWAY BILLY EYELASH EWW EWW gtfo of here |
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mako
Platinum Member
formerly known as "the one letter"
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Post by mako on Mar 30, 2019 8:50:20 GMT -5
Also no sign of !!!!!! in the spotify 200
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Post by hot100predictions on Mar 30, 2019 8:57:40 GMT -5
Also no sign of !!!!!! in the spotify 200 Did not pass the 30-second rule, would've debuted in the top 20 if it did. |
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