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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2019 15:27:21 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2019 15:31:09 GMT -5
In this ranking, points are adjusted based on era's turnover rate (sales vs. streaming era), just like a few other threads on this forum. 
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2019 15:32:26 GMT -5
#91-96
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2019 15:33:06 GMT -5
#81-90
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2019 15:38:16 GMT -5
#70s 
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Post by Lukas on Sept 27, 2019 16:21:07 GMT -5
This is really cool. Some thoughts:
Kinda shocked Teenage Dream didn't make the list; I was expecting it to be in the bottom 5 and I highly doubt it would be top 70.
As I Like It is only at #80 and Happier is only at #75 (for now, but did it really shoot up that much in its last chart weeks?), it pretty much proves that the eras of late 2018/early 2019 are very weak. I don't think Lucid Dreams will show up at all.
Panda ahead of Stressed Out is quite surprising, since Stressed Out was higher on the 2016 list, but I'm certain the methodology being used is more complex than just that, so I won't doubt it.
I don't think anything besides Harlem Shake will make the top 70 on this list but not be in the top 100 under inverse.
And as the song that No. 3 peaking song that "revolutionized" into the top 10, based off of my calculations under a real points system, I'm 99.99% sure that I know what it is and that it is in the top 10.
Great work and I'm excited to see the #60s, the #50s, and beyond!
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kierz7
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Post by kierz7 on Sept 27, 2019 16:33:37 GMT -5
So this has nothing to do with the methodology BB will use come December?
Great work either way!
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Post by Lukas on Sept 27, 2019 16:43:50 GMT -5
So this has nothing to do with the methodology BB will use come December? Great work either way! Apparently it's a "test chart" that Billboard is using for a 2010's decade-end list with real points and that it got leaked. In fact, I don't think we even know whether or not Billboard will use real or inverse. I'm going with inverse for now, but I could be surprised..... |
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Sept 27, 2019 22:37:48 GMT -5
Amazing job and I love the format of your charts - it looks so official!
Happier turned out to be such a huge hit for peaking at #2! (I'm surprised it's bigger than Havana)
Also, a lot of #4 songs like "Stitches" and "Cruise" had insane longevity to make the chart, it's too bad the inverse points system doesn't reflect their success
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2019 13:16:45 GMT -5
Sunflower at #66 is a little bit surprising huh (this list is as of August, it can eventually be in top 50)? But to be fair this is a very mellow year for real points, easy to have a number 2 peak on Hot 100 with just 30k points.  |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2019 13:19:05 GMT -5
Drake and Weeknd! Kings!  |
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kierz7
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Post by kierz7 on Sept 28, 2019 14:02:29 GMT -5
Can you just add the chart all at once? Like...
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Post by Lukas on Sept 28, 2019 14:04:43 GMT -5
#62, #66, and #67 only confirm the weakness of this past year.
Some Nights and Ho Hey in the top 50 is insane.
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Post by Lukas on Sept 28, 2019 14:18:48 GMT -5
Here are the songs in the top 50 (99.99% sure this is it based off of my own decade end list with real points):
All About That Bass
All of Me
Blank Space
Blurred Lines
Call Me Maybe
Can't Stop the Feeling!
Closer
Counting Stars
Dark Horse
Despacito
F**k You!
Girls Like You
Give Me Everything
God's Plan
Dynamite
Happy
Harlem Shake
Hello
Hey, Soul Sister
Ho Hey
Just the Way You Are
Love Yourself
Moves Like Jagger
Need You Now
Old Town Road
Party Rock Anthem
Radioactive
Roar
Rolling in the Deep
Royals
See You Again
Sexy And I Know It
Shake It Off
Shape of You
Somebody That I Used to Know
Some Nights
Sorry
Stay With Me
That's What I Like
The Hills
Thinking Out Loud
Thrift Shop
Tik Tok
Trap Queen
Uptown Funk!
Wake Me Up!
We Are Young
We Found Love
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Post by Lukas on Sept 28, 2019 14:22:59 GMT -5
41-50 predictions:
Can't Stop the Feeling!
F**k You!
Girls Like You
Harlem Shake
Hey, Soul Sister
Ho Hey
Need You Now
Sexy And I Know It
Some Nights
Stay With Me
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Sept 28, 2019 15:11:08 GMT -5
Can you just add the chart all at once? Like... The OP is doing us a favor by showing his work, let them present it however they want to. |
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Sept 28, 2019 15:12:10 GMT -5
Also, I can't believe how weak 2018 & 2019 was...
"Havana", "Rockstar", "Sunflower", "Without Me" and "Sicko Mode" are not even top 60...but four of those are in the top 20 of the inverse decade chart
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Sept 28, 2019 15:34:26 GMT -5
Also, I can't believe how weak 2018 & 2019 was... "Havana", "Rockstar", "Sunflower", "Without Me" and "Sicko Mode" are not even top 60...but four of those are in the top 20 of the inverse decade chart I think these “weak” numbers are the normal now because of how streaming is incorporated into the formula. Its similar to how streaming has brought down album sales numbers and its just harder to match the numbers of regular sales. So I dont think 2018 and 2019 were weak in actuality, just a product of streaming |
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Post by Lukas on Sept 28, 2019 15:37:01 GMT -5
Also, I can't believe how weak 2018 & 2019 was... "Havana", "Rockstar", "Sunflower", "Without Me" and "Sicko Mode" are not even top 60...but four of those are in the top 20 of the inverse decade chart I think these “weak” numbers are the normal now because of how streaming is incorporated into the formula. Its similar to how streaming has brought down album sales numbers and its just harder to match the numbers of regular sales. So I dont think 2018 and 2019 were weak in actuality, just a product of streaming In points they actually were very weak. Billboard weighs them accordingly so that, a hit song in 2013 should be the same as in 2019. This is why claims like "Shape of You would definitely be #1 of the decade if they were released in late 2018" or "Uptown Funk! would've gotten 20 weeks at #1" are actually true, given how their points are laid out. Old Town Road will in contrast be really high on the decade-end list because of how many points it amassed during its run at #1. |
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Sept 28, 2019 15:42:04 GMT -5
I think these “weak” numbers are the normal now because of how streaming is incorporated into the formula. Its similar to how streaming has brought down album sales numbers and its just harder to match the numbers of regular sales. So I dont think 2018 and 2019 were weak in actuality, just a product of streaming In points they actually were very weak. Billboard weighs them accordingly so that, a hit song in 2013 should be the same as in 2019. This is why claims like "Shape of You would definitely be #1 of the decade if they were released in late 2018" or "Uptown Funk! would've gotten 20 weeks at #1" are actually true, given how their points are laid out. Old Town Road will in contrast be really high on the decade-end list because of how many points it amassed during its run at #1. Yea I know the points are weak. Im saying this isn't something that will be 2018 or 2019 specific but it'll stay like this for a good long time (unless they change how they tabulate points). |
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Post by Lukas on Sept 28, 2019 17:04:50 GMT -5
In points they actually were very weak. Billboard weighs them accordingly so that, a hit song in 2013 should be the same as in 2019. This is why claims like "Shape of You would definitely be #1 of the decade if they were released in late 2018" or "Uptown Funk! would've gotten 20 weeks at #1" are actually true, given how their points are laid out. Old Town Road will in contrast be really high on the decade-end list because of how many points it amassed during its run at #1. Yea I know the points are weak. Im saying this isn't something that will be 2018 or 2019 specific but it'll stay like this for a good long time (unless they change how they tabulate points). No. If songs are actually strong enough to have lots of points they will. SOY and Rockstar were under the same formula but Rockstar was a lot weaker in points. Same thing with OTR and just about every other #1 song this year. It has nothing to do with the formula. |
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Sept 28, 2019 17:21:05 GMT -5
Yea I know the points are weak. Im saying this isn't something that will be 2018 or 2019 specific but it'll stay like this for a good long time (unless they change how they tabulate points). No. If songs are actually strong enough to have lots of points they will. SOY and Rockstar were under the same formula but Rockstar was a lot weaker in points.Same thing with OTR and just about every other #1 song this year. It has nothing to do with the formula. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wasn't Shape of You significantly stronger in sales than Rockstar was? and vice versa with streaming? Which is my whole point in that streaming is causing points to be lower since streams aren't "worth as much" as a sale. Similar to the albums chart and why its hard for streaming fueled albums to match the sales of albums fueled by pure copies. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2019 10:02:31 GMT -5
Also, I can't believe how weak 2018 & 2019 was... "Havana", "Rockstar", "Sunflower", "Without Me" and "Sicko Mode" are not even top 60...but four of those are in the top 20 of the inverse decade chart Well, Sunflower looks like it's gonna pass 55 weeks on Hot 100, with that point it'll eventually reach top 30 (at #26-30 range). |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2019 10:35:35 GMT -5
No. If songs are actually strong enough to have lots of points they will. SOY and Rockstar were under the same formula but Rockstar was a lot weaker in points.Same thing with OTR and just about every other #1 song this year. It has nothing to do with the formula. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wasn't Shape of You significantly stronger in sales than Rockstar was? and vice versa with streaming? Which is my whole point in that streaming is causing points to be lower since streams aren't "worth as much" as a sale. Similar to the albums chart and why its hard for streaming fueled albums to match the sales of albums fueled by pure copies. What? That's frontloaded points you're talking about (week 1 on sales chart, seems more daunting than streaming week 1). The points are mellow these years because: 1) There's a genre split of power (pop pulls meh numbers on streaming, and urban songs don't have enough sales and radio support, so streaming era songs are basically standing on one streaming leg). It feels like a pop/country era now, tbh I consider Old Town Road more of a country song, if you use weighted real points for sales chart, these recent 3 years would tell a different kind of story. 2) It has been a very mellow era (90m-110m is a new standard for airplay number 1s meanwhile it used to be 130m-150m, and Hot 100 streaming numbers have reached its saturation point in Despacito era, which, I don't care about how soundscan reported a 234.5% annual growth or something but it doesn't show on Hot 100 at all). This year other than Old Town Road there hasn't been any song that's like, really leading. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2019 10:39:32 GMT -5
Looks like GLY made it to top 40, so is Baauer. Some people ready to throw up?  |
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Sept 29, 2019 12:15:46 GMT -5
Is "Hey Soul Sister" really bigger than "Need You Now"?
"Need You Now" ranked #2 on the year end chart while "Hey Soul Sister" ranked at #3, and "Need You Now" had more points in the previous year as well.
And "Need You Now" had 60 weeks, while "Hey Soul Sister" had 54 weeks
Great job btw - this was just an observation I made!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2019 12:25:13 GMT -5
"Need You Now" ranked #2 on the year end chart while "Hey Soul Sister" ranked at #3, and "Need You Now" had more points in the previous year as well. This ranking is just for '10s. The points in their previous year were cut off. |
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Sept 29, 2019 12:47:10 GMT -5
"Need You Now" ranked #2 on the year end chart while "Hey Soul Sister" ranked at #3, and "Need You Now" had more points in the previous year as well. This ranking is just for '10s. The points in their previous year were cut off. Yes I know, but "Need You Now" still had more points in the 2010s compared to "Hey Soul Sister" based on Billboard's 2010 year end chart. Just an observation :) |
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chanman
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Post by chanman on Sept 29, 2019 13:01:58 GMT -5
How come "Talk Dirty" at #96 gets to peak at number ONEEEE. It peaked at number 3!!!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2019 13:18:46 GMT -5
How come "Talk Dirty" at #96 gets to peak at number ONEEEE. It peaked at number 3!!! unlesssss theres something billboard isn't telling us |
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