brady47
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Post by brady47 on Nov 10, 2019 17:19:09 GMT -5
I'm surprised "Lover" never took off
It had a lot of hype after Taylor dropped the video and seemed like an amazing single :(
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fhas
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Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Nov 10, 2019 17:29:49 GMT -5
If rimetm prediction is accurate, SYL/Circles will be the weakest #1 of the Streaming Era and the top 10 is probably the weakest in years (maybe the entire decade) using raw points. Last year, TUN kinda saved November, but it's becoming one of the worst months for big hits in recent years (2017-2019).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2019 17:36:00 GMT -5
Even if Someone You Loved blocks Circles from #1 this week, the latter surely should rise to #1 next week unless something big happens.
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Post by Lukas on Nov 10, 2019 17:46:57 GMT -5
Tfw this week's top 10 is even weaker than this week's top 10 a year ago.....
And when you compare this to the largely competitive era of May and June 2017, Circles and SYL would be in the very low tiers of the top 10 with the same points.
And also, this is might be the first week of this decade where the #10 song has less than 20K points.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Nov 10, 2019 17:51:30 GMT -5
Tfw this week's top 10 is even weaker than this week's top 10 a year ago..... And when you compare this to the largely competitive era of May and June 2017, Circles and SYL would be in the very low tiers of the top 10 with the same points. And also, this is might be the first week of this decade where the #10 song has less than 20K points. I believe Love Lies was top 10 with less than 20k points for a week or two
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fhas
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Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Nov 10, 2019 17:53:05 GMT -5
Tfw this week's top 10 is even weaker than this week's top 10 a year ago..... And when you compare this to the largely competitive era of May and June 2017, Circles and SYL would be in the very low tiers of the top 10 with the same points. And also, this is might be the first week of this decade where the #10 song has less than 20K points. XO TOUR Llif3's peak week: #7 with 31,600 points
Sales: 21k Radio: 29M Streaming: 41M
The 2017/18 formula gave more points than the current formula, but even then XO would be as strong as SYL/Circles.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Nov 10, 2019 17:56:05 GMT -5
I blame the streaming tiers.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Nov 10, 2019 17:57:00 GMT -5
Tfw this week's top 10 is even weaker than this week's top 10 a year ago..... And when you compare this to the largely competitive era of May and June 2017, Circles and SYL would be in the very low tiers of the top 10 with the same points. And also, this is might be the first week of this decade where the #10 song has less than 20K points. I believe Love Lies was top 10 with less than 20k points for a week or two God is a woman: 19,800 (Sep. 8, 2018) Love Lies: 19,900 (Nov. 3, 2018)
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Nov 10, 2019 18:12:12 GMT -5
November 14, 2009
09 NE Bad Romance - Lady Gaga
I really think this was the pinnacle of Gaga's career, we already knew she wasn't a one hit wonder with "Just Dance" and "Poker Face", but this put her on a whole other level!
She really was unstoppable this era
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ddlz
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Post by ddlz on Nov 10, 2019 18:43:22 GMT -5
Watching Circles get blocked by SYL both this and next week would almost make up for Better Now and Wow. missing #1, Stay not getting released as a single, and many other mistakes due to label's incompetence.
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Post by FindingC7osure on Nov 10, 2019 18:55:33 GMT -5
11/16/19 Early Predictions (rimetm's formula):
| Song | Points | 1. | Circles (+2) | 29,100 | 2. | Someone You Loved (=) | 28,700 | 3. | Truth Hurts (+2) | 25,000 | 4. | Good As Hell (+2) | 24,000 | 5. | Señorita (-2) | 23,800 | 6. | Lose You to Love Me (-5) | 22,300 | 7. | No Guidance (+1) | 21,800 | 8. | Memories (+3) | 21,000 | 9. | HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (+5) | 19,700 | 10. | 10,000 Hours (+2) | 19,600 | 11. | Panini (-2) | 19,300 | 12. | Ran$om (+1) | 18,900 | 13. | Beautiful People (+2) | 17,900 | 14. | Trampoline (+2) | 17,900 | 15. | Bad Guy (-5) | 16,900 |
Others:- Only Human - 15,800 - Roxanne - 11,700 11/16/19 Early Predictions (Simon Falk's formula):
| Song | Points | 1. | Circles (+2) | 28,200 | 2. | Someone You Loved (=) | 28,000 | 3. | Truth Hurts (+2) | 24,800 | 4. | Señorita (=) | 23,400 | 5. | Good As Hell (+1) | 23,400 | 6. | No Guidance (+2) | 21,200 | 7. | Lose You to Love Me (-6) | 21,100 | 8. | Memories (+3) | 20,200 | 9. | 10,000 Hours (+3) | 19,000 | 10. | Panini (-1) | 18,500 | 11. | HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (+3) | 18,400 | 12. | Beautiful People (+3) | 17,800 | 13. | Trampoline (+3) | 17,600 | 14. | Ran$om (-1) | 17,400 | 15. | Bad Guy (-5) | 15,900 |
Others:- Only Human - 15,800 - Roxanne - 10,800 Doing the two formula thing again for my final predictions. I'm planning to try out a new formula with some slight modifications next week! 10/16/19 Final Predictions:
| Song | Points | 1. | Someone You Loved (+1) | 29,200 | 2. | Circles (+1) | 28,800 | 3. | Señorita (+1) | 24,000 | 4. | Truth Hurts (+1) | 23,300 | 5. | No Guidance (+3) | 22,400 | 6. | Good As Hell (=) | 21,900 | 7. | Lose You to Love Me (-6) | 21,000 | 8. | Memories (+3) | 20,700 | 9. | 10,000 Hours (+3) | 20,200 | 10. | Hot (+25) | 19,900 | 11. | Panini (-2) | 18,300 | 12. | HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (+2) | 18,300 | 13. | Ran$om (=) | 18,100 | 14. | Bad Guy (-4) | 17,900 | 15. | Beautiful People (=) | 17,800 | 16. | Trampoline (=) | 17,400 |
Others:
- Only Human - 15,100
- Roxanne - 13,200 (DEBUT - top 40 for sure, likely top 30!)
| Song | Points | 1. | Someone You Loved (+1) | 28,600 | 2. | Circles (+1) | 28,000 | 3. | Señorita (+1) | 23,800 | 4. | Truth Hurts (+1) | 22,900 | 5. | No Guidance (+3) | 22,000 | 6. | Good As Hell (=) | 21,300 | 7. | Lose You to Love Me (-6) | 19,900 | 8. | Memories (+3) | 19,900 | 9. | 10,000 Hours (+3) | 19,800 | 10. | Hot (+25) | 18,700 | 11. | Panini (-2) | 17,900 | 12. | Beautiful People (+3) | 17,700 | 13. | Trampoline (+3) | 17,300 | 14. | HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (=) | 17,300 | 15. | Ran$om (-2) | 16,900 | 16. | Bad Guy (-6) | 16,900 |
Others:- Only Human - 15,300
- Roxanne - 12,200
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Nov 10, 2019 18:57:16 GMT -5
bad week if SYL goes #1 again but holy shit, it's close
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ddlz
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Post by ddlz on Nov 10, 2019 19:07:17 GMT -5
Even if Someone You Loved blocks Circles from #1 this week, the latter surely should rise to #1 next week unless something big happens. Circles is not going #1 without closing the gap on radio. 1. Someone You Loved 133.44 (+0.42) 4. Circles 112.69 (+0.37)
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Nov 10, 2019 19:22:04 GMT -5
If rimetm prediction is accurate, SYL/Circles will be the weakest #1 of the Streaming Era and the top 10 is probably the weakest in years (maybe the entire decade) using raw points. Last year, TUN kinda saved November, but it's becoming one of the worst months for big hits in recent years (2017-2019). 2017 had Rockstar
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Post by Lukas on Nov 10, 2019 19:41:52 GMT -5
If rimetm prediction is accurate, SYL/Circles will be the weakest #1 of the Streaming Era and the top 10 is probably the weakest in years (maybe the entire decade) using raw points. Last year, TUN kinda saved November, but it's becoming one of the worst months for big hits in recent years (2017-2019). 2017 had Rockstar Not sure what you're trying to imply there. Rockstar was a medium-sized #1 hit (peaked with 45k-50k points). Clearly, Rockstar was bigger in 2017 than Circles is right now. 2017-2019 counts as recent because that's when streaming was "really" in full effect (the change in mid 2018 was just to differentiate between free and passive streams, as well as to make an individual sale worth a little bit more due to how much it's been downgraded over the past few years).
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Nov 10, 2019 20:12:48 GMT -5
Not sure what you're trying to imply there. Rockstar was a medium-sized #1 hit (peaked with 45k-50k points). Clearly, Rockstar was bigger in 2017 than Circles is right now. 2017-2019 counts as recent because that's when streaming was "really" in full effect (the change in mid 2018 was just to differentiate between free and passive streams, as well as to make an individual sale worth a little bit more due to how much it's been downgraded over the past few years). This.
Black Beatles/Closer in 2016 was the last time we had huge hits (points) in November.
Last year, GLY had two extremely weak weeks at #1 and this year is the same thing with SLY/LYTLM so far.
I think it has to do with people moving to Christmas songs earlier.
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kingvavis
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Post by kingvavis on Nov 10, 2019 20:35:45 GMT -5
When was the last period where the charts were this weak in the top spot? I'm aware that the early 2000s were a weak period but we're there any other times between 2002-2009?
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degen
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Post by degen on Nov 10, 2019 20:55:37 GMT -5
Not sure what you're trying to imply there. Rockstar was a medium-sized #1 hit (peaked with 45k-50k points). Clearly, Rockstar was bigger in 2017 than Circles is right now. 2017-2019 counts as recent because that's when streaming was "really" in full effect (the change in mid 2018 was just to differentiate between free and passive streams, as well as to make an individual sale worth a little bit more due to how much it's been downgraded over the past few years). This.
Black Beatles/Closer in 2016 was the last time we had huge hits (points) in November.
Last year, GLY had two extremely weak weeks at #1 and this year is the same thing with SLY/LYTLM so far.
I think it has to do with people moving to Christmas songs earlier.
I agree with the Christmas theory. I have noticed this year the Christmas season was in full swing on November 1st and there was no pushback against it. I think the 25th anniversary of “All I Want for Christmas” made most AC stations play their Christmas playlist earlier.
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garrettlen
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Post by garrettlen on Nov 10, 2019 23:02:19 GMT -5
November 16, 197401 03 Whatever Gets You Through The Night - John Lennon (1st and only week at #1)02 07 Do It ('Til You're Satisfied) - B.T. Express 03 06 My Melody Of Love - Bobby Vinton 04 04 Tin Man - America 05 05 Back Home Again - John Denver 06 15 I Can Help - Billy Swan 07 13 Longfellow Serenade - Neil Diamond 08 09 Life Is a Rock - Reunion 09 11 Everlasting Love - Carl Carlton 10 10 Carefree Highway - Gordon Lightfoot Believe it or not, when John Lennon reached #1 on the Hot 100 for the week ending November 16th, 1974 with "Whatever Gets You Through The Night", he was the LAST ex-Beatle to do so. Even RINGO hit the top spot before he did. George Harrison was the first ex-Beatle to reach #1 on the Hot 100 when his popular single "My Sweet Lord" hit the top spot the week ending December 26th, 1970. Paul McCartney came next; he along with his wife Linda, first hit the top spot the week of September 4th, 1971, with the single "Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey" from his "Ram" album. As previously mentioned, Ringo came next: He got his first Hot 100 #1 almost a year before John did when his single "Photograph" hit the top the week of November 24th, 1973. He would repeat the feat only 2 months later. Another fun bit of trivia about the song. Although he is uncredited, rock star Elton John sang vocal harmony and played keyboards on the track. While they were recording the song in the studio, Elton John told John Lennon it was a #1 record. Lennon was dubious, but Elton got John to make a promise. Elton made John promise that if the single topped the charts, that he (John) would join Elton on stage in concert and sing it with him. After the song did indeed top the chart the week of November 16th, 1974, John Lennon lived up to his promise. On November 28th, 1974, at Elton's Thanksgiving Day Concert at Madison Square Garden, John joined Elton on stage and sang "Whatever Gets You Through The Night" with him. It would turn out to be John Lennon's last major appearance on stage.
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Normi
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Post by Normi on Nov 11, 2019 3:40:09 GMT -5
Lol @ somebody calling Post's team incompetent How many Post Malone-less Top 10s did we have in the last two years? Are they even double-digit? Yeah, no.
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Nov 11, 2019 6:15:54 GMT -5
Lol @ somebody calling Post's team incompetent How many Post Malone-less Top 10s did we have in the last two years? Are they even double-digit? Yeah, no. It's incompetent because they have lost or let go at least two #1's.
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kierz7
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Post by kierz7 on Nov 11, 2019 6:31:06 GMT -5
When was the last period where the charts were this weak in the top spot? I'm aware that the early 2000s were a weak period but we're there any other times between 2002-2009? On the contrary, the Hot 100 in the early 2000’s were much stronger during the October/November period. Strongest November’s. 2000: Independent Women Part 1. 2001: Family Affair 2002: Lose Yourself 2003: Baby Boy 2004: My Boo 2005: Golddigger/Run It 2007: No One 2008: Live Your Life Weakest November’s: 2006: Money Maker/My Love 2009: Whatcha Say/Fireflies
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Post by violentdreams on Nov 11, 2019 6:36:20 GMT -5
Lol @ somebody calling Post's team incompetent How many Post Malone-less Top 10s did we have in the last two years? Are they even double-digit? Yeah, no. It's incompetent because they have lost or let go at least two #1's. It's not his team's fault that Post was too lazy to do proper music videos for Better Now and Wow.
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Nov 11, 2019 6:48:32 GMT -5
Lol @ somebody calling Post's team incompetent How many Post Malone-less Top 10s did we have in the last two years? Are they even double-digit? Yeah, no.
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renaboss
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Post by renaboss on Nov 11, 2019 9:46:33 GMT -5
I'm rooting for Post just for the sake of variety, and "Circles" is actually a nice song - I'd take it over "Psycho" any day of the week, and that hit #1.
But guys, you need to let go of the fact that "Better Now" wasn't #1 and stop blaming it on this or that. There are far greater injustices in chart history, one of which was indirectly referenced in this very page - John Lennon's first #1 was "Whatever Gets You Thru the Night" in '74. "Imagine" also peaked at #3. Which is the most egregious situation, "Imagine" or "Better Now"? Come on.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Nov 11, 2019 9:58:38 GMT -5
kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/11/11
1(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 133.54(+0.10) 2(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 121.84(-1.19) 3(=) Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita 117.70(-1.90) 4(=) Post Malone - Circles 112.94(+0.25) 5(=) Jonas Brothers - Only Human 102.50(+1.17) 6(=) Lizzo - Good as Hell 99.00(+1.24) 7(=) Ed Sheeran - Beautiful People (feat. Khalid) 97.93(+0.67) 8(=) Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 92.71(-0.91) 9(=) SHAED - Trampoline 91.25(-0.15) 10(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 85.23(-0.78)
30(+1) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 45.05(+1.73)
46(+2) Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 32.59(+1.14)
57(+5) Maren Morris - The Bones 29.20(+0.88)
68(+3) Billie Eilish - all the good girls go to hell 25.77(+0.82)
90(+2) Tones and I - Dance Monkey 19.40(+0.86)
91(+4) Kane Brown - Homesick 18.95(+0.80) -(-) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 13.38(+1.57)
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Nov 11, 2019 10:02:57 GMT -5
I think by "weak," kingvavis may mean in terms of chart points/showings for the No. 1. Since "Old Town road" concluded its reign, none of the No. 1s have been a truly dominant force, outdistancing the competition by heaps. Least that's how I took it. :)
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jeiboy
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Post by jeiboy on Nov 11, 2019 10:04:46 GMT -5
Lizzo is waiting for AMAS moment to perch like a vulture waiting for its prey (#1 spot) to devour
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Nov 11, 2019 10:05:53 GMT -5
I agree with the Christmas theory. I have noticed this year the Christmas season was in full swing on November 1st and there was no pushback against it. I think the 25th anniversary of “All I Want for Christmas” made most AC stations play their Christmas playlist earlier. Regarding AIWFCIY, the video was already #66 in this week's YouTube which might indicate it would chart earlier than expected, which would probably be the chart with the tracking week starting with Black Friday.
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jtd Thee Stallion
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Post by jtd Thee Stallion on Nov 11, 2019 10:55:52 GMT -5
I just realized we haven't got a "[insert song] is challenging for the #1 spot" article over the weekend before the chart releases in a while.
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