2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)
Nov 26, 2019 12:25:25 GMT -5
Post by Lukas on Nov 26, 2019 12:25:25 GMT -5
Welcome to the year-end predictions thread. This is thread where various people come together and post their year-end predictions. Anyone can make a year-end prediction. Various year-end predictions have ranged from estimating chart points to using straight up inverse points to everything in between.
Below is some important information you might like to know.
Previous Year-End Predictions Threads:
2013 Year-End Predictions
2014-2019 Year-End Predictions
Previous Year-End Predictions:
These were the "best guesses" from previous years. They are not official year-end charts. Sometimes these predictions may also include more than 100 songs. Official year-end lists can be found here.
2013 Year-End Prediction
2014 Year-End Prediction
2015 Year-End Prediction
2016 Year-End Prediction
2017 Year-End Prediction
2018 Year-End Prediction
Previous Year-End Predictions Games:
Because of the various predictions held each year, at the end of each year there is a "predictions contest" where the person whose predictions matched the closest with the published year-end chart wins. Here are some of the stats to previous year-end predictions "best guesses" (these year-end predictions are also listed above):
How the Year-End Charts Are Calculated:
The year-end charts are calculated through the total number of points that each song spends on the Hot 100 chart during a chart year. This chart year traditionally goes from December 1 of the previous year to November 30 of the current year. Exceptions do occur, and there is no way to know exactly when the chart starts or ends until Billboard announces it.
Here is how Billboard explains their year-end charts: โThis year's most popular songs across all genres, ranked by radio airplay audience impressions as measured by Nielsen Music, sales data as compiled by Nielsen Music and streaming activity data provided by online music sources.โ
And since the year-end charts are, as explained earlier, the total amount of chart points a song gets during its time on the chart in a chart year, the following information might be helpful.
Let me know if you want to have anything else added on this first post!
Below is some important information you might like to know.
Previous Year-End Predictions Threads:
2013 Year-End Predictions
2014-2019 Year-End Predictions
Previous Year-End Predictions:
These were the "best guesses" from previous years. They are not official year-end charts. Sometimes these predictions may also include more than 100 songs. Official year-end lists can be found here.
2013 Year-End Prediction
2014 Year-End Prediction
2015 Year-End Prediction
2016 Year-End Prediction
2017 Year-End Prediction
2018 Year-End Prediction
Previous Year-End Predictions Games:
Because of the various predictions held each year, at the end of each year there is a "predictions contest" where the person whose predictions matched the closest with the published year-end chart wins. Here are some of the stats to previous year-end predictions "best guesses" (these year-end predictions are also listed above):
{Results and Stats (Credits to inverse):}
Year | Predictor | Correct Spots | Top 10 | Top 100 | Worst Miss | Total Spots Off |
2014 | Daniel Collins | 40 | 10 | 96 | -19 on Drink A Beer | 166 |
2015 | broccoli | 19 | 9 | 98 | -12 on Habits (Stay High) | 298 |
2016 | georgetherunner314 | 48 | 10 | 99 | -5 on Let Me Love You and Starving | 79 |
2017 | Snoopdawg | 20 | 10 | 98 | -16 on Treat You Better | 261 |
2018 | fhas | 48 | 10 | 97 | -9 on Say Something | 143 |
2019 | lights | 42 | 10 | 99 | -6 on Swervin | 120 |
How the Year-End Charts Are Calculated:
The year-end charts are calculated through the total number of points that each song spends on the Hot 100 chart during a chart year. This chart year traditionally goes from December 1 of the previous year to November 30 of the current year. Exceptions do occur, and there is no way to know exactly when the chart starts or ends until Billboard announces it.
Here is how Billboard explains their year-end charts: โThis year's most popular songs across all genres, ranked by radio airplay audience impressions as measured by Nielsen Music, sales data as compiled by Nielsen Music and streaming activity data provided by online music sources.โ
And since the year-end charts are, as explained earlier, the total amount of chart points a song gets during its time on the chart in a chart year, the following information might be helpful.
{How the Weekly Charts Are Calculated:}
Radio Songs is calculated through Kworbโs Radio Songs Estimates, published each Sunday. The margin of error for the Billboard charts appears to be around 3-5 percent. Divide by 1.33 (or a number close to this) to bring the numbers much closer to how Billboard does it.
Digital Sales can be estimated through Kworb as well as the Hits Daily Double song sales charts.
Streaming Songs is the most difficult chart to estimate. Here is the exact formula for how Billboard weights streaming, given in an article made by Billboard:
Weighted Streaming (or weighted streams) = Passive Streams / 2 + 2 * Free Streams / 3 + Paid Streams
Here is the exact wording from the Billboard article: "Billboard will have multiple weighted tiers of streaming plays for the Hot 100, which take into account paid subscription streams (representing a full point value per play), ad-supported streams (representing a 2/3-point value per play) and programmed streams (representing a 1/2-point value per play)."
What does each category of streaming mean?
Paid Streams or "on-demand streaming" is where you pay money to stream a song. These are worth one full stream each. Examples include the paid tiers of Spotify and SoundCloud, as well as Apple Music.
Free Streams is where you stream the song for free. These are worth 2/3rds of a full stream each. Examples of "free streaming" include YouTube, User-Generated Content, and the free tiers of Spotify and SoundCloud.
Passive Streams is where you stream a song but don't get to choose the songs that you stream. These are worth 1/2 of a full stream each. A major example of this is Pandora.
How to Accurately Calculate The Streaming Tiers:
On-Demand Streaming is calculated through the HITS Daily Double Streaming Songs Chart as well as its Song Sales Chart. Streams are divided by a number close to 15/16 (this is the equivalent of dividing by 1600 instead of 1500) to get closer to the actual weighted on-demand streaming number because not all of the streams are through paid tiers (for example, as in the free tiers of Spotify). This number changes depending on how where the songโs strength is coming from (Apple Music has no free tiers, so songs that do really well there compared to Spotify will be divided by a higher number (like x0.95) than a song thatโs stronger on Spotify).
Free Streaming is calculated through YouTubeโs weekly chart. Unfortunately, UGC views are not included on YouTubeโs weekly chart, but they are for the Billboard Hot 100. Exactly how many UGC views there are will have to be estimated on published Billboard charts.
Passive Streaming is calculated through Pandora Streams. This accounts for the majority, if not all, of the total passive streams that Billboard calculates.
The current formula for the Hot 100 appears to be:
Radio/7000 + Sales/6 + Weighted Streaming/1500
Radio Songs is calculated through Kworbโs Radio Songs Estimates, published each Sunday. The margin of error for the Billboard charts appears to be around 3-5 percent. Divide by 1.33 (or a number close to this) to bring the numbers much closer to how Billboard does it.
Digital Sales can be estimated through Kworb as well as the Hits Daily Double song sales charts.
Streaming Songs is the most difficult chart to estimate. Here is the exact formula for how Billboard weights streaming, given in an article made by Billboard:
Weighted Streaming (or weighted streams) = Passive Streams / 2 + 2 * Free Streams / 3 + Paid Streams
Here is the exact wording from the Billboard article: "Billboard will have multiple weighted tiers of streaming plays for the Hot 100, which take into account paid subscription streams (representing a full point value per play), ad-supported streams (representing a 2/3-point value per play) and programmed streams (representing a 1/2-point value per play)."
What does each category of streaming mean?
Paid Streams or "on-demand streaming" is where you pay money to stream a song. These are worth one full stream each. Examples include the paid tiers of Spotify and SoundCloud, as well as Apple Music.
Free Streams is where you stream the song for free. These are worth 2/3rds of a full stream each. Examples of "free streaming" include YouTube, User-Generated Content, and the free tiers of Spotify and SoundCloud.
Passive Streams is where you stream a song but don't get to choose the songs that you stream. These are worth 1/2 of a full stream each. A major example of this is Pandora.
How to Accurately Calculate The Streaming Tiers:
On-Demand Streaming is calculated through the HITS Daily Double Streaming Songs Chart as well as its Song Sales Chart. Streams are divided by a number close to 15/16 (this is the equivalent of dividing by 1600 instead of 1500) to get closer to the actual weighted on-demand streaming number because not all of the streams are through paid tiers (for example, as in the free tiers of Spotify). This number changes depending on how where the songโs strength is coming from (Apple Music has no free tiers, so songs that do really well there compared to Spotify will be divided by a higher number (like x0.95) than a song thatโs stronger on Spotify).
Free Streaming is calculated through YouTubeโs weekly chart. Unfortunately, UGC views are not included on YouTubeโs weekly chart, but they are for the Billboard Hot 100. Exactly how many UGC views there are will have to be estimated on published Billboard charts.
Passive Streaming is calculated through Pandora Streams. This accounts for the majority, if not all, of the total passive streams that Billboard calculates.
The current formula for the Hot 100 appears to be:
Radio/7000 + Sales/6 + Weighted Streaming/1500
Let me know if you want to have anything else added on this first post!