Eloqueen™
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Sept 18, 2021 8:29:57 GMT -5
well,I saw that industry baby returned in the top 10 on AM at least.. imagine if drake's 3rd week block lil nas from reaching #1 on Billboard 200 Well, I can definitely see Drake blocking him from debuting at #1 on the Billboard 200. His songs are already dropping on Apple Music and his Spotify numbers aren't exactly great (especially if they keep dropping from tomorrow and for the rest of the tracking week). My guess is he does somewhere around 100-150K. How is Lil Nas X having every song off Montero nearly debut just shy of top 30 "not exactly great"? I mean most viewed him in the vein of a "one hit wonder" until recently and most now are claiming he needs gimmicks to find success or he is all troll. This is his debut album mind you. He is just finding his footing and cultivating the foundation of his core fanbase at this stage, and to top it off is seeing levels of success unpresedented from an openly and unabashedly presenting gay black pop star/rapper (outside of maybe Tyler). I don't see how this isn't a win for day one unless people were expecting him to have Drake level figures from the jump (which would be absurd)? Lol |
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Sept 18, 2021 9:31:13 GMT -5
US Spotify - 09/17/21
1(+3) Lil Nas X - INDUSTRY BABY 2,492,612 (+1,024,015)
2(debut) Lil Nas X - THATS WHAT I WANT 1,896,424
3(-2) Drake - Way 2 Sexy 1,777,633 (+187,179)
4(-2) The Kid LAROI - STAY 1,657,067 (+135,869)
5(-2) Drake - Knife Talk 1,568,567 (+83,922)
6(+14) Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 1,563,365 (+899,580)
7(debut) Lil Nas X - SCOOP 1,396,342
8(-3) Drake - Fair Trade 1,257,661 (+28,857)
9(debut) Lil Nas X - DOLLA SIGN SLIME 1,242,089
10(-4) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 1,230,046 (+75,990)
Lil Nas X - MONTERO
11(debut) DEAD RIGHT NOW 1,183,514
13(debut) ONE OF ME 1,041,162
17(debut) LOST IN THE CITADEL 954,235
19(debut) TALES OF DOMINICA 923,575
21(re-entry) SUN GOES DOWN 896,391
26(debut) AM I DREAMING 803,306
27(debut) DONT WANT IT 790,756
30(debut) VOID 753,300
32(debut) LIFE AFTER SALEM 692,196
Total Streams: 16,629,267
Drake - Certified Lover Boy
14(-7) Girls Want Girls 1,019,268 (-85,224)
28(-14) Champagne Poetry 762,566 (-3,829)
36(-14) No Friends In The Industry 648,545 (-588)
41(-17) TSU 565,449 (-14,127)
52(-16) N 2 Deep 468,230 (-9,861)
53(-18) Papi's Home 467,873 (-12,477)
54(-16) In the Bible 463,163 (-9,365)
60(-18) Love All 426,771 (-10,793)
64(-17) Pipe Down 398,520 (-9,285)
68(-18) IMY2 390,814 (-5,831)
91(-28) 7am On Bridle Path 336,821 (-11,388)
99(-30) Race My Mind 328,358 (-14,091)
Total Streams: 12,002,163
Others:
12(debut) Taylor Swift - Wildest Dreams (Taylor's Version) 1,083,618
15(-7) Baby Keem - family ties 990,003 (-19,614)
16(-7) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 960,795 (+20,799)
18(-7) Doja Cat - Need to Know 940,102 (+77,341)
20(-10) Kanye West - Hurricane 906,808 (-24,604)
22(-10) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More 856,391 (+56,754)
23(-10) THE ANXIETY, WILLOW, Tyler Cole - Meet Me At Our Spot 852,099 (+76,191)
24(-3) Ed Sheeran - Shivers 843,663 (+192,576)
25(-10) Doja Cat - Woman 816,340 (+85,384)
29(-13) Sleepy Hallow - 2055 753,557 (+26,092)
31(-12) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 706,377 (+36,515)
33(-16) Kanye West - Moon 687,540 (-5,115)
34(-16) Billie Eilish - Happier Than Ever 683,066 (-6,595)
35(-10) Farruko - Pepas 649,495 (+75,214)
37(-14) Olivia Rodrigo - traitor 600,109 (+8,082)
38(-12) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 597,245 (+27,089)
39(-9) Måneskin - Beggin' 589,251 (+63,381)
40(-12) Dua Lipa - Levitating 587,125 (+31,521)
42(-15) Kanye West - Off the Grid 562,102 (+3,573)
43(-14) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 552,968 (+5,126)
44(-13) Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 552,623 (+30,703)
47(-8) DaBaby - Lonely 498,376 (+48,361)
50(-10) Meek Mill - Sharing Locations 483,522 (+39,423)
51(debut) iann dior - V12 474,774
55(-7) Chlöe - Have Mercy 457,150 (+60,223)
56(-12) Surf Curse - Freaks 443,579 (+16,910)
58(+14) Mac Miller - Colors and Shapes 437,158 (+99,777)
59(-16) Eslabon Armado, DannyLux - Jugaste y Sufrí 432,894 (+3,596)
62(-21) Baby Keem - range brothers 417,313 (-23,957)
65(-12) Tai Verdes - A-O-K 393,874 (+15,606)
67(debut) G-Eazy - Breakdown 391,529
69(-14) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears Remix 388,368 (+15,083)
70(-8) Megan Thee Stallion - Thot Shit 387,176 (+38,261)
73(-22) Kanye West - Jail 371,827 (-7,700)
74(-13) The Weeknd - Take My Breath 370,897 (+18,954)
75(-8) Doja Cat, The Weeknd - You Right 357,877 (+12,749)
78(-3) Lizzo - Rumors 353,149 (+18,286)
79(+2) Oliver Tree - Life Goes On 352,791 (+33,065)
84(-19) Lil Tecca - REPEAT IT 345,703 (+327)
86(-1) Marshmello - Leave Before You Love Me 342,769 (+26,762)
87(-21) A-Wall - Loverboy 342,007 (-3,272)
88(debut) Jonas Brothers - Who's In Your Head 338,908
90(+1) Aventura, Bad Bunny - Volví 336,841 (+25,946)
92(-24) PinkPantheress - Pain 334,996 (-7,626)
95(+4) Kacey Musgraves - breadwinner 330,999 (+35,676)
101(+28) Elton John, Dua Lipa - Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) 324,510 (+60,729)
105(-19) Post Malone - Motley Crew 317,173 (+2,940)
106(debut) Kehlani - Altar 315,252
111(-13) J Balvin, Skrillex - In Da Getto 310,792 (+13,603)
114(-17) Sueco - Paralyzed 307,629 (+6,740)
116(-60) Kacey Musgraves - justified 303,040 (-70,021)
126(-43) Jordan Davis, Luke Bryan - Buy Dirt 289,617 (-28,815)
127(-25) Blueface, Og Bobby Billions - Outside (Better Days) 288,982 (-1,978)
130(debut) Bring Me the Horizon - DiE4u 285,054
131(-14) Billie Eilish - Happier Than Ever Edit 281,230 (+8,414)
134(debut) Jon Bellion - I FEEL IT 277,738
146(debut) YoungBoy Never Broke Again - On My Side 272,840
175(+7) bbno$ - edamame 246,429 (+23,912)
180(debut) Tems - Found 244,396
182(-36) PinkPantheress - Just for me 243,393 (-6,099)
184(-12) Ryan Hurd - Chasing After You 242,536 (+13,787)
185(-19) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears 241,794 (+8,825)
186(-24) Blxst, Tyga - Chosen 241,261 (+3,533)
189(-50) Roddy Ricch - Late At Night 238,630 (-17,044)
199(debut) Dustin Lynch - Thinking 'Bout You 232,855
Total Streams for Happier Than Ever: 964,296
Total Streams for Save Your Tears: 630,162
Biggest Gains (50K+): Cold Heart (PNAU Remix), Colors and Shape, Have Mercy, Beggin', Pepas, Woman, Shivers, Meet Me at Our Spot, Kiss Me More, Need to Know, Heat Waves, MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name), Knife Talk, STAY, Way 2 Sexy, INDUSTRY BABY
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 18, 2021 9:48:44 GMT -5
Shivers managed to have a great update considering the eighth day rolling week effect it was under. I thought it would get a -5 or worse.
kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2021/09/18
1(=) The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber - STAY 95.71(+0.45)
2(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 95.44(+0.34)
3(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 87.85(+0.01)
4(=) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More (feat. SZA) 82.02(-0.50) 5(=) Dua Lipa - Levitating (feat. DaBaby) 72.71(-0.32)
6(=) Olivia Rodrigo - deja vu 59.78(-1.75)
7(=) Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 57.05(-0.43)
8(=) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears 56.76(-0.49)
9(=) Doja Cat & The Weeknd - You Right 55.31(-0.35) -
10(=) Duncan Laurence - Arcade (feat. FLETCHER) 52.96(-0.65)
11(+1) Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow - INDUSTRY BABY 52.24(+1.34)
13(=) Wizkid - Essence (feat. Tems) 50.03(+0.96) 16(+2) Måneskin - Beggin 41.04(+0.98)
37(+1) Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 29.02(+1.66) +
39(+1) Olivia Rodrigo - traitor 27.62(+0.72)
51(+10) Drake - Way 2 Sexy (feat. Future & Young Thug) 24.07(+2.17)
68(-6) Ed Sheeran - Shivers 20.80(-0.80)
-(-) Ozuna - La Funka 8.22(+1.36)
-(-) Marc Anthony - Pa'lla Voy 4.24(+0.76)
-(-) Justin Bieber - Ghost 3.28(+0.78) -(-) Dj Khaled - Body In Motion f/B. Tiller... 2.81(+0.81) +
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Post by thegreatdivine on Sept 18, 2021 9:49:26 GMT -5
Well, I can definitely see Drake blocking him from debuting at #1 on the Billboard 200. His songs are already dropping on Apple Music and his Spotify numbers aren't exactly great (especially if they keep dropping from tomorrow and for the rest of the tracking week). My guess is he does somewhere around 100-150K. How is Lil Nas X having every song off Montero nearly debut just shy of top 30 "not exactly great"? I mean most viewed him in the vein of a "one hit wonder" until recently and most now are claiming he needs gimmicks to find success or he is all troll. This is his debut album mind you. He is just finding his footing and cultivating the foundation of his core fanbase at this stage, and to top it off is seeing levels of success unpresedented from an openly and unabashedly presenting gay black pop star/rapper (outside of maybe Tyler). I don't see how this isn't a win for day one unless people were expecting him to have Drake level figures from the jump (which would be absurd)? Lol Have you seen projections that have every song off the album debuting just shy of the top 30 that I don't know about? How are you reaching that conclusion after 1 day? I never said 100-150K was bad. Doja Cat/Megan Thee Stallion did similar numbers with their albums and I thought those numbers were impressive for the current stage of their careers. I said the Apple Music/Spotify performance wasn't great and it isn't. It's good and there's nothing wrong with that. Doing numbers like Olivia Rodrigo did with SOUR, as rare as that is, can be classified as great. I'd also classifify the numbers Post Malone did with Beerbongs and Bentleys and the numbers Billie did with WWAFA,WDWG as great. Don't get so hung up on the word. That's just how I classify things. I wish Lil Nas X all the success in the world. I said that in my first post about his album in this thread. I still think he's exhausted all the best singles/potential singles off the album but I still hope the album serves some longevity, similar to how Planet Her is doing. That's why I remarked that the songs were already dropping on Apple Music and that outside his Spotify debut, if those figures also dropped throughout the rest of the tracking week, the numbers wouldn't be great by the end of the tracking week. It's not that deep. |
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Post by goldentakes on Sept 18, 2021 9:57:41 GMT -5
How is Lil Nas X having every song off Montero nearly debut just shy of top 30 "not exactly great"? I mean most viewed him in the vein of a "one hit wonder" until recently and most now are claiming he needs gimmicks to find success or he is all troll. This is his debut album mind you. He is just finding his footing and cultivating the foundation of his core fanbase at this stage, and to top it off is seeing levels of success unpresedented from an openly and unabashedly presenting gay black pop star/rapper (outside of maybe Tyler). I don't see how this isn't a win for day one unless people were expecting him to have Drake level figures from the jump (which would be absurd)? Lol Have you seen projections that have every song off the album debuting just shy of the top 30 that I don't know about? How are you reaching that conclusion after 1 day? I never said 100-150K was bad. Doja Cat/Megan Thee Stallion did similar numbers with their albums and I thought those numbers were impressive for the current stage of their careers. I said the Apple Music/Spotify performance wasn't great and it isn't. It's good and there's nothing wrong with that. Doing numbers like Olivia Rodrigo did with SOUR, as rare as that is, can be classified as great. I'd also classifify the numbers Post Malone did with Beerbongs and Bentleys and the numbers Billie did with WWAFA,WDWG as great. Don't get so hung up on the word. That's just how I classify things. I wish Lil Nas X all the success in the world. I said that in my first post about his album in this thread. I still think he's exhausted all the best singles/potential singles off the album but I still hope the album serves some longevity, similar to how Planet Her is doing. That's why I remarked that the songs were already dropping on Apple Music and that outside his Spotify debut, if those figures also dropped throughout the rest of the tracking week, the numbers wouldn't be great by the end of the tracking week. It's not that deep. I'm pretty sure they mean debuting top 30 on Spotify |
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Sept 18, 2021 10:17:40 GMT -5
I expected lil nas to have some songs in the top 10 of AM...but I guess he's not that strong now..also I blame the leak of the album..the album leaked in August and he waited way too long to release it... I don't think the leak affected anything. Only a few people knew about the leak and even fewer people could get their hands on it. His label did a pretty good job blocking efforts to spread the leak so no real damage was done. Most of the songs in the leak were older songs/songs that didn't end up making the album. I agree that it probably does not affect how it's performing now, but just as a correction: the leak I heard in July was this exact album, minus the Doja and Megan verses on "Scoop" and "Dolla Sign Slime", and the Elton John piano feature. additionally the leak included a song called "Anomaly" and a song called "Empathy" featuring Sam Smith instead (which was a bop, btw, I hope Lil Nas has plans for it). so most of the leak actually ended up on the album. ( you can even read my initial thoughts on each of the songs on the leaked album from July here in the Lil Nas X artist thread.) good showing for Lil Nas on Spotify US. 5 songs in the Top 10 is more than I would have thought. Doja Cat would have "only" had 4 in the Top 10 when her album dropped if it weren't for Tyler, so if MONTERO performs anything like Planet Her, we'll be getting hits out of this record for the rest of the year. only time can tell. |
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Sept 18, 2021 10:52:24 GMT -5
The way sales are counted on the Hot 100 need a massive overhaul. The website sales/mass buying issue has been talked about as nauseam, but there needs to be a limit on how many weeks a song can have an iTunes discount at a time. There really is no reason why songs, especially those that have already been in the Top 10 for a long time (Stay, Bad Habits, and Butter), have multiple discounted versions on iTunes for weeks on end.
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chanman
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Posts: 756
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Post by chanman on Sept 18, 2021 11:13:01 GMT -5
Well, I can definitely see Drake blocking him from debuting at #1 on the Billboard 200. His songs are already dropping on Apple Music and his Spotify numbers aren't exactly great (especially if they keep dropping from tomorrow and for the rest of the tracking week). My guess is he does somewhere around 100-150K. How is Lil Nas X having every song off Montero nearly debut just shy of top 30 "not exactly great"? I mean most viewed him in the vein of a "one hit wonder" until recently and most now are claiming he needs gimmicks to find success or he is all troll. This is his debut album mind you. He is just finding his footing and cultivating the foundation of his core fanbase at this stage, and to top it off is seeing levels of success unpresedented from an openly and unabashedly presenting gay black pop star/rapper (outside of maybe Tyler). I don't see how this isn't a win for day one unless people were expecting him to have Drake level figures from the jump (which would be absurd)? Lol Agreed with your post here ....We've just came off big streaming numbers in the past weeks, I don't understand the critique in some posts with the leaks, fanbase and expecting more??? I find Day 1 numbers to be impressive for Lil Nas X, I really thought he was a flash in the pan. Didnt really support him much then, but I'm willing to give him some more listens this time around. Y'all can spin it how you like it to say otherwise, he is a different artist with different audience and all this means is that there is room to grow bigger on the next album. I think many people are still discovering LNX in terms of his direction, it may agree to some and others not. Even his videos may turn off listeners or may be entertaining. There are many factors out there that cause streaming numbers to be how they are, that I dont have the answers to. Many artistes who drop their albums cant even do well on both Apple and Spotify Charts at the same time. It's usually one platform they are better in. If you use streaming numbers as your yard stick or bible, you are going to always be critical. So hats off to LNX (at least he has hits that we can remember!!!) |
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Post by ontopofthis on Sept 18, 2021 11:42:29 GMT -5
So, this is interesting -- streaming for current music has actually PEAKED and is decreasing year to date.  It's odd that Billboard has not even talked about this and it's basically a hidden secret. This puts more perspective into why streaming numbers for hits are low. All that information about "more subscribers" and Spotify/Apple/etc gaining users does not mean much if people are actually streaming current music less. I posted about that a while ago. That was because there were not any big artists putting out projects. I am pretty sure that it is going to be up on 2020 with Kanye West and Drake now. 2020 is even worse in comparison to 2019 |
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Post by ontopofthis on Sept 18, 2021 11:45:53 GMT -5
I expected lil nas to have some songs in the top 10 of AM...but I guess he's not that strong now..also I blame the leak of the album..the album leaked in August and he waited way too long to release it... No one except Twitter stans paid attention to any leaks. The numbers are going to be good, but they might not be high enough to surpass Drake. That is the problem. He should have had the album out in August when no major artists put out anything, and his team really set him up by not putting it out then when they were aware that Drake and Kanye West were on the horizon |
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Post by ontopofthis on Sept 18, 2021 11:49:36 GMT -5
I don't think the leak affected anything. Only a few people knew about the leak and even fewer people could get their hands on it. His label did a pretty good job blocking efforts to spread the leak so no real damage was done. Most of the songs in the leak were older songs/songs that didn't end up making the album. well,I saw that industry baby returned in the top 10 on AM at least.. imagine if drake's 3rd week block lil nas from reaching #1 on Billboard 200 All of the people who say that he is trying to poison children and push a gay agenda are going to troll him so hard if he does not open at number one |
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s9983
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Post by s9983 on Sept 18, 2021 16:09:49 GMT -5
With Wildest Dreams already falling on iTunes, unless Taylor has the website sales, IB going to #1 is pretty much locked in. it's not locked. Even with the album boost, stay is going to be almost 120 points ahead. It's gonna need at least 10m ADDITIONAL streams (probably 13m to be safe) to fill that gap. We have to see how well these boosts for IB hold. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Sept 18, 2021 23:45:40 GMT -5
Current Positions (8 hours later/24 hours since the start of the tracking week):#7 (+6). Industry Baby (with Jack Harlow) #14 (+17). That's What I Want
#19 (+22). Scoop (feat. Doja Cat)
#20 (+26). Dolla Sign Slime (feat. Megan Thee Stallion)
#22 (+23). Dead Right Now #31 (+7). Montero (Call Me By Your Name)
#33 (+27). One of Me (feat. Elton John)
#39 (+36). Lost in the Citadel #42 (+38). Tales of Dominica
#44 (+28). The Art of Realization #54 (+37). Sun Goes Down #55 (+55). Don't Want It
#59 (+48). Am I Dreaming (feat. Miley Cyrus)
#62 (+53). Void #68 (+78). Life After Salem
The album remains at #2 on US Apple Music. #9 (-2). Industry Baby (with Jack Harlow) #15 (-1). That's What I Want #22 (-3). Scoop (feat. Doja Cat) #23 (-3). Dolla Sign Slime (feat. Megan Thee Stallion) #30 (-8). Dead Right Now #35 (-4). Montero (Call Me By Your Name) #39 (-6). One of Me (feat. Elton John) #49 (-10). Lost in the Citadel #50 (-8). Tales of Dominica #53 (-9). The Art of Realization #61 (-7). Sun Goes Down #63 (-8). Don't Want It #65 (-6). Am I Dreaming (feat. Miley Cyrus) #67 (-5). Void #82 (-14). Life After Salem
The album remains at #2 on US Apple Music. #8 (+1). Industry Baby (with Jack Harlow) #15 (=). That's What I Want #26 (-3). Dolla Sign Slime (feat. Megan Thee Stallion)
#27 (-5). Scoop (feat. Doja Cat) #33 (+2). Montero (Call Me By Your Name)
#40 (-10). Dead Right Now #53 (-14). One of Me (feat. Elton John)
#58 (-8). Tales of Dominica #59 (-10). Lost in the Citadel #68 (-15). The Art of Realization #71 (-10). Sun Goes Down #75 (-12). Don't Want It #82 (-17). Am I Dreaming (feat. Miley Cyrus) #87 (-20). Void #99 (-17). Life After Salem
The album remains at #2 on US Apple Music. |
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