recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Jun 5, 2023 21:54:49 GMT -5
Max spins starting this Friday according to Country Aircheck weekly.
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countryfan43
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Post by countryfan43 on Jun 5, 2023 21:58:59 GMT -5
This being maxed starting Friday is smart as it gives it extra time on Billboard. I don’t see this getting number one Billboard but it is a very strong song and I really hope it does.
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fearlessarrow
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Post by fearlessarrow on Jun 6, 2023 10:31:53 GMT -5
I was still somewhat hopeful that this could be the song that would bring a female artist back to #1 on Billboard but maxing starting this Friday means it basically has no shot at Billboard. Hopefully "Last Night" falls a bit so this can nab that MB #1. There's still a 2000 spin gap between the two as of today but if "Tennessee Orange" can close the gap a bit this week for the push to work its magic that would be great.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jun 6, 2023 19:48:18 GMT -5
Yeah I feel like they are jumping the gun here a bit for the push week starting this Friday. Mainly because this still has plenty of room to grow (it's a whole 2000+ spins behind "Last Night" there's plenty of room to grow before you start maxing) so I am kind of lost on them not letting this grow for a couple more weeks and then push it when "Last Night" has hopefully lost a little more ground. I do think there's a slim shot at Mediabase but it is gonna need "Last Night" to fall a fair amount and given its stellar callout and total domination everywhere I don't think the odds are great. Also 0% chance at Billboard as I have it estimated that "Tennessee Orange" is about 11 million behind in audience on Billboard as of today.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Jun 6, 2023 20:03:07 GMT -5
Of course the meh callouts strike again. I don't think they can wait one more week at this stage because the push weeks are planned in advance.
If anything, there are some potential radio hits in the album, and it will be interesting to see whether she is a one-hit wonder.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jun 6, 2023 20:06:18 GMT -5
Of course the meh callouts strike again. I don't think they can wait one more week at this stage because the push weeks are planned in advance. If anything, there are some potential radio hits in the album, and it will be interesting to see whether she is a one-hit wonder. Ugh, well at least having a female song having middling callouts and making this high is neat instead of having the callouts also having to be perfect. Just wish it didn't run into an impossible situation, (then again I doubt this would even get #1 on Billboard if it did wait it out as "Next Thing You Know" would probably have blocked it anyway).
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Jun 6, 2023 20:17:00 GMT -5
This one having poor callouts always confused me. It’s connecting great on the streaming/sales front, but the callouts are meh. I wonder if listeners find her voice polarizing.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Jun 6, 2023 20:54:54 GMT -5
It's a waltz. Not dissimilar with callouts of Flower Shops tbh.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 6, 2023 20:59:59 GMT -5
This one having poor callouts always confused me. It’s connecting great on the streaming/sales front, but the callouts are meh. I wonder if listers find her voice polarizing. It has absolutely no business having poor callouts. This is the biggest female country song at radio in a couple years. People LOVE it, except the small heavily-biased-against-women sample that always get asked by radio if they like it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2023 21:36:08 GMT -5
It's a waltz. Not dissimilar with callouts of Flower Shops tbh. I do think Waltz’s struggle at country radio recently. “You Didn’t”, “Sunrise Tells The Story” “Flower Shops” “Knowing You”. None of those are memorable hits.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 6, 2023 22:00:52 GMT -5
It's a waltz. Not dissimilar with callouts of Flower Shops tbh. I do think Waltz’s struggle at country radio recently. “You Didn’t”, “Sunrise Tells The Story” “Flower Shops” “Knowing You”. None of those are memorable hits. Unlike those though, "Tennessee Orange" WAS a memorable hit. None of those came anywhere close to #1, and she'll at least finish in the top 3. So, that's good, but still disappointing that she likely won't end up topping BB and MB as she should imo. Sad.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jun 6, 2023 22:19:07 GMT -5
I agree that this push seems a little premature. “Meh” callouts should be canceled somewhat by strong streams/sales. Don’t think it ever had a chance at Billboard #1 with “Last Night”, “Next Thing You Know” and “Fast Car” all peaking around the same time, but still think there was room for improvement.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jun 6, 2023 22:34:56 GMT -5
I mean "Knowing You" did make Top 2 on Billboard and #1 on Mediabase just fyi. I also agree that country radio isn't the biggest on the waltz style of songs (seriously that's a style that is a rarity in country music by in large).
But that being said, this song was such a huge hit connecting wise it should have been a natural lock for Top 3 easily even before the push week. I do think having "Last Night" and "Next Thing You Know" right near it did screw this song over a bit as both are even bigger than this song on most if not all metrics especially "Last Night". But this songs success still speaks for itself regardless, and no matter where it peaks it should be celebrated for the success it has had.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Jun 6, 2023 22:43:00 GMT -5
“Meh” callouts should be canceled somewhat by strong streams/sales. I think it did somewhat, as I don't think this would hit top 5 on Mediabase right now if it didn't have strong streams/sales. And adding to discussion of waltzes performing worse than expected in radio, Girl Crush reached #1 on Hot Country Songs but only #3 on Country Airplay chart.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 6, 2023 22:45:36 GMT -5
I mean "Knowing You" did make Top 2 on Billboard and #1 on Mediabase just fyi. Had it confused with "Everyone She Knows" which died in the teens tbh. I don't pay enough attention to Kenny Chesney, lol.
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dwindeezy
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Post by dwindeezy on Jun 6, 2023 23:49:51 GMT -5
I like this girl and think she’s a straight up star. In a weird way tho, I’m kinda glad this won’t hit #1 as it gives her somewhere to grow for her next single especially with better timing whereas this might be her strongest performing commercially on the album but another track Getting stronger callouts and being her first #1. My only issue with this is that this feels very geared to females (her core demo I feel) and a single that can also appeal to guys a bit more might get better callouts. Just my silver lining to not hitting the top tho it deserves too.
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musicspy
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Post by musicspy on Jun 7, 2023 3:29:51 GMT -5
Bring out the mammoth that is "Lucky"!
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Jun 7, 2023 6:30:54 GMT -5
Team “Traitor Joe” next right here.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jun 7, 2023 11:27:21 GMT -5
“Girl in the Mirror” has award potential imo but could be risky at radio, even though I could see it being her “The House That Built Me” kind of hit. Curious to see if they chase critic clout or go more tailored for radio route with something up beat like “Traitor Joe” or “Lucky”.
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zaclord 🌈
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Post by zaclord 🌈 on Jun 7, 2023 15:00:39 GMT -5
Traitor Joe 2nd, Girl in the Mirror 3rd, please!
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Post by diamondinmypocket on Jun 7, 2023 18:39:35 GMT -5
Not sure what direction they’ll go next, but “Girl In The Mirror” is stunning and if it pays off could really cement Megan as one of the formats next big stars
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Jun 10, 2023 8:55:28 GMT -5
Sucks this one is running into terrible timing. BB #1 is completely out of the question, honestly there’s a chance it only gets to #4 there, due to Morgan & Tyler not dropping, in addition to Jordan pulling further ahead this week. Edit: i'm now seeing "Fast Car" jumped ahead of it too. Meaning it likely won't get past #5 on BB. Unless Wallen drops a chunk over the next week, this will most likely be shut out at #2 on Mediabase.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jun 10, 2023 8:59:59 GMT -5
Yeah the timing is just horrible as this also got kind of handicapped by having "Fast Car" ahead of it on Billboard as of this week so they couldn't even wait out "Last Night" if Sony wanted too because then they'd have to contend with "Fast Car" and get blocked by that (I know both are Sony artists but it seems like nothing is stopping that song right now). Regardless, this song is still a big success and it's gotten Megan's foot in the door, and I am very interested to see what they do for the followup,
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Jun 14, 2023 7:01:51 GMT -5
If Megan can continue to see these huge daily updates (nearly +300 spins daily), I do think she can snag Mediabase #1, as long as Morgan either stays put or falls. Sony can't let off the gas for the remainder of her push week though, if they want it to happen.
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Post by wonderstruck on Jun 15, 2023 20:38:13 GMT -5
#1 looks in reach?
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jun 15, 2023 20:50:28 GMT -5
On Mediabase there is definitely a chance if it can keep gaining what it is (the audience gap does give me some pause). Unfortunately no chance at Billboard airplay since it was so far back and it is probably peak at #4 on Billboard tomorrow ("Last Night", "Dancing In The Country", and "Next Thing You Know" should all be ahead of it).
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Jun 16, 2023 6:01:20 GMT -5
Yeah nothing is set in stone, but I’d be very surprised if this didn’t take #1 on Sunday when the chart closes. It likely won’t move there until Sunday’s update though, cause it still has a small gap to close.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2023 15:46:46 GMT -5
Peaks at #4 on Billboard this week, with a gain of 4.484M week-to-week
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 16, 2023 16:29:11 GMT -5
Disappointed this couldn't make it all the way to #1 on BB, but atp that's a luxury women just can't seem to afford so... *sigh*
On the bright side, I am very excited to see what they choose for her follow-up single and see how radio takes it to it. I feel like Megan's poised to be among the likes of Lainey Wilson and Carly Pearce within a couple years. There's star-power written all over her and the material to match, plus she's already made quite a wave for herself with the GP.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jun 16, 2023 16:41:01 GMT -5
I will say this missing #1 on Billboard doesn't hurt quite as much since the Billboard #1 in general seems to be rare if your name isn't Morgan Wallen, Luke Combs or Bailey Zimmermann so at least a good amount of male songs are also missing the top as well.
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