Will Lil Durk go #1 on either H100 or B200?

[tekkenguy]

Will Lil Durk go #1 on either the Hot 100 or the Billboard 200 when his album comes out?

[jasper0102]

I think there’s a chance he can do both here, if the hype for All My Life allows Almost Healed to outperform 7220, and if Morgan’s weak enough, he can take the Billboard 200 number-one while also giving All My Life enough of a boost to beat Morgan on the Hot 100.
As of now, i’ll say he’ll only top the Billboard 200, he has a better shot there than on the Hot 100.
Edit: Well the tracklist has just been dropped, and he's getting both now. Almost Healed has more tracks than 7220, which means it's practically guaranteed to outperform that album. And if Morgan keeps dropping like he is it's almost gauranteed he'll go number-one on the Billboard 200. As for the Hot 100, with All My Life getting radio fast and it being Track 3, it's pretty likely it can get a strong enough boost to go to number-one. It will be incredibly close though.

[tekkenguy]

May 22, 2023 17:57:39 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

I think there’s a chance he can do both here, if the hype for All My Life allows Almost Healed to outperform 7220, and if Morgan’s weak enough, he can take the Billboard 200 number-one while also giving All My Life enough of a boost to beat Morgan on the Hot 100.
As of now, i’ll say he’ll only top the Billboard 200, he has a better shot there than on the Hot 100.
Edit: Well the tracklist has just been dropped, and he's getting both now. Almost Healed has more tracks than 7220, which means it's practically guaranteed to outperform that album. And if Morgan keeps dropping like he is it's almost gauranteed he'll go number-one on the Billboard 200. As for the Hot 100, with All My Life getting radio fast and it being Track 3, it's pretty likely it can get a strong enough boost to go to number-one. It will be incredibly close though.

How much streaming and radio does it need to get to #1? I know Morgan is sitting at 300 points.

[jasper0102]

May 23, 2023 7:34:23 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

May 22, 2023 17:57:39 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

I think there’s a chance he can do both here, if the hype for All My Life allows Almost Healed to outperform 7220, and if Morgan’s weak enough, he can take the Billboard 200 number-one while also giving All My Life enough of a boost to beat Morgan on the Hot 100.
As of now, i’ll say he’ll only top the Billboard 200, he has a better shot there than on the Hot 100.
Edit: Well the tracklist has just been dropped, and he's getting both now. Almost Healed has more tracks than 7220, which means it's practically guaranteed to outperform that album. And if Morgan keeps dropping like he is it's almost gauranteed he'll go number-one on the Billboard 200. As for the Hot 100, with All My Life getting radio fast and it being Track 3, it's pretty likely it can get a strong enough boost to go to number-one. It will be incredibly close though.

How much streaming and radio does it need to get to #1? I know Morgan is sitting at 300 points.

It could actually be pretty close to how Last Night got number-one during Morgan's album bomb week. But while All My Life will likely have considerably weaker streaming and little sales at all, it would probably have more radio than what Last Night had around the time. Hell it's first-week radio numbers are actually the same as what Last Night got during album bomb week.

Overall, i don't think i can give concrete numbers, but basically: All My Life's gonna need a streaming boost similar to what Last Night got (as in +60%) and then hope it has enough radio to complement the streaming and overtake Morgan. But given Flowers had nearly the same amount of points on album bomb week as Morgan has now, that's gonna be a tough challenge.