Carlitoz
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Post by Carlitoz on Aug 15, 2006 21:49:08 GMT -5
Ok, what are your predictions for the next #1s! Do you think it'll be as predictible as the following?!
8/26 Christina
9/2 Outkast
9/9 Jessica
9/16 Beyonce
9/23 Justin
9/30 Clay
10/7 Janet
Who will last 2 weeks in a row and destroy the next star's dream to open on #1?? Will we have surprises??? Could Fergie steal Clay's #1? Could Tony Bennett steal Janet's #1? How would Paris do? And The Killers and John Mayer?
Nobody has had a massively successful first single so far. I think most of them have done just ok and some pretty bad. The underdogs are dominating the singles' #1: Fergie and Nelly Furtado. I wouldn't be surprised if the unexpected happens in the albums chart too.
Based on Outkast's two new singles (or videos), I doubt they're looking for a huge radio hit. I think their big following will take the album to #1 regardless of the first singles being popular.
With Janet, I could easily sea Tony Bennett making it to #1 and Janet not doing well. Janet is coming from a flop, she is right now doing nothing on pop and doing ok in urban, but not great like to make everybody go and buy her album. Her second single and video might change things. As things are right now, I see more of a top ten instead of a #1 and then quickly falling.
How will Beyonce, Christina, Jessica and Justin perform?
What are your predictions???? :) Go ahead, do some predictions and we'll check them out again on October 7th.
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Pulse
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Post by Pulse on Aug 16, 2006 1:20:28 GMT -5
Those sound like the most high profile releases that week, so that seems about right. No wonder they delayed JoJo's release. Too much competetion!
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musicology
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Post by musicology on Aug 16, 2006 13:58:29 GMT -5
Janet should easily hit number one because she is doing Oprah that week. Huge audience there.
Justin's single is actually doing better than Fergie's on radio. Once it goes to iTunes, he has a good shot at number one on Billboard. So he will likely be coming off of a very successful first single, better than Like I Love You, which will push his album to number one.
Beyonce will be number one because she will have the VMA performance right before her album drops.
Clay may be overtaken by Fergie. I don't think he's quite as invincible as he used to be.
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Post by winner2000 on Aug 16, 2006 14:11:40 GMT -5
Clay may be overtaken by Fergie. I don't think he's quite as invincible as he used to be. I would have thought the same, but have you ever met a "real" Clay fan? Yikes!! |
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Carlitoz
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Post by Carlitoz on Aug 16, 2006 15:03:35 GMT -5
Good points, musicology. I wonder if Tony Bennett will be doing a lot of promotion those days too. I've already seen articles in Time magazine and a huge special in Billboard magazine. The fact that he's teaming up with so many stars might give him a big opening. How big? I don't know..... but I would expect something big.
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Post by Cooler than ever! on Aug 17, 2006 5:30:26 GMT -5
Sexy back is horrible. No wonder it isn't doing as well as his competition.
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musicology
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Post by musicology on Aug 17, 2006 7:16:03 GMT -5
Um, yeah Sexy Back is doing BETTER than all of its competition in airplay. It hasn't been released to iTunes yet, so that's all we can judge by.
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banet2001
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Post by banet2001 on Aug 17, 2006 10:01:01 GMT -5
Clay may be overtaken by Fergie. I don't think he's quite as invincible as he used to be. I would have thought the same, but have you ever met a "real" Clay fan? Yikes!! I agree. Clay has a lot of really dedicated fans out there. I think he will do well first week out. |
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Pulse
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Post by Pulse on Aug 17, 2006 13:17:09 GMT -5
Um, yeah Sexy Back is doing BETTER than all of its competition in airplay. It hasn't been released to iTunes yet, so that's all we can judge by. Yeah, Sexyback is already #12 on Hot 100 Airplay. If it were released as a digital single, it would very easily go to #1. |
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MusicJunkie
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Post by MusicJunkie on Aug 17, 2006 15:56:02 GMT -5
Ok, what are your predictions for the next #1s! Do you think it'll be as predictible as the following?! 8/26 Christina 9/2 Outkast 9/9 Jessica 9/16 Beyonce 9/23 Justin 9/30 Clay 10/7 Janet IMO, the 10/14 chart should be added to this predictions list. Evanescence and The Killers will debut that week and they're household names now. Who will be #1? We'll find out 10/14. |
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HellonUrth
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Post by HellonUrth on Aug 18, 2006 7:36:28 GMT -5
I predict Evanescense takes the #1 on 10/14 but I heard that Ruben's was pushed back to an Oct 3rd release so he might be a contender.
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GordonUM
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Post by GordonUM on Aug 18, 2006 8:26:23 GMT -5
Other big ones to watch for: Audioslave and John Mayer have a chance to upset Beyonce and Justin, but I think both'll finish a strong second.
Ludacris and Alan Jackson are also releasing new ones on the same day as Janet, so there should be a bit more competition there.
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Minimalism
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Post by Minimalism on Aug 21, 2006 0:39:58 GMT -5
Jessica might miss the top spot, and Outkast will rule the chart two weeks in a row. John Mayer might have a chance too. Didn't his last album open at what, 400K?
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MusicJunkie
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Post by MusicJunkie on Aug 21, 2006 19:38:33 GMT -5
^ Yeah but John is up against Justin. I think he'll have to settle for #2.
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bogglethemind
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Post by bogglethemind on Aug 21, 2006 20:51:29 GMT -5
I think John's last album by himself opened at 316,000. I'm pretty sure Justin will be #1.
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Carlitoz
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Post by Carlitoz on Aug 30, 2006 11:07:07 GMT -5
Man! Outkast didn't make it to #1!!!
I guess things will end up not being that obvious anymore....
I still think Justin can open on #1. Jessica... I'm not sure about that one anymore......
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cbmc99
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Post by cbmc99 on Aug 30, 2006 11:12:19 GMT -5
Well we all know what happened to Outkast...I'm glad Danity Kane came out on top :)
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Carlitoz
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Post by Carlitoz on Aug 30, 2006 11:58:05 GMT -5
Yeah, impressive for Danity Kane. I had seen a couple of time the show, but I didn't know they were so popular until I started seeing the iTunes numbers recently and now their album on #1. Diddy's previous MTV Bands projects didn't do that well, right? Maybe I totally missed them and they were very popular, but it seems that they never even released an album. I may be totally wrong... Wasn't there a group with guys and girl a couple of years ago on Diddy's show with a lot of drama going on???
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HellonUrth
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Post by HellonUrth on Sept 3, 2006 7:09:49 GMT -5
Variety.com made their own predictions.  |
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Nick
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Post by Nick on Sept 3, 2006 8:43:00 GMT -5
Sexy back is horrible. No wonder it isn't doing as well as his competition. Meanwhile he's #1 on Itunes and #1 on the Hot 100. Poor Justin ??? |
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MusicJunkie
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Post by MusicJunkie on Sept 3, 2006 9:47:02 GMT -5
^^ Okay, Variety.com went a little off when predicting John for #1. Her currently has no mainstream single out now while Justin has the #1 song in the country and is everywhere. I'd be really shocked if they turn out to be right.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2006 17:54:54 GMT -5
^^ Okay, Variety.com went a little off when predicting John for #1. Her currently has no mainstream single out now while Justin has the #1 song in the country and is everywhere. I'd be really shocked if they turn out to be right. I think the variety article had Justin listed as dropping on Sept. 19, not the 12th. So they didn't have him competing with John Mayer, they had him listed as competing with Clay. I still think Variety has it wrong, and Justin will debut at #1 no matter which week they drop him. I suppose there's always a chance that people will just download his singles instead of buy his album, but I have a feeling Justin's 1st week sales will be the biggest of the season. Watching the album charts is finally getting interesting and fun again, I'll say that.  |
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Post by Pink Champagne Ricochet on Sept 4, 2006 19:23:53 GMT -5
yeah, Variety seems to think that Justin's album is out on the 19th. i'm surprised they think Clay will top him though. the only issue is that Justin's album has been leaked for awhile already. I think Clay could get #1 over Fergie because his fans are probably more likely to want the entire album and buy it whether or not it leaks, while "London Bridge" is pretty much a novelty song that gets huge downloads but doesn't move albums.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Sept 4, 2006 19:49:13 GMT -5
Im hoping for at least one more surprise #1 (since most of these seem so obvious)
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HellonUrth
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Post by HellonUrth on Sept 5, 2006 6:20:40 GMT -5
A popular song doesn't always translate to big sales numbers. Look at Daniel Powter's Bad Day. He got so much exposure on American Idol every week plus a live performance on the finale. His song got plenty of radio and it was a popular download. Has his CD gone gold yet? What about Kelis Milkshake. Same kind of thing but on a smaller scale. She had a hit song but lousy CD sales.
I'll be interested to watch Justin's numbers come in that week.
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Luckie Starchild
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Post by Luckie Starchild on Sept 5, 2006 14:38:58 GMT -5
i'm surprised they think Clay will top him though. Hey. Enough with the gay jokes already. |
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Sept 6, 2006 1:20:25 GMT -5
lmao
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Jennifer
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Post by Jennifer on Sept 24, 2006 22:50:56 GMT -5
Im hoping for at least one more surprise #1 (since most of these seem so obvious) Jessica debuting at #5 seems like a huge surprise, atleast to me. lol. |
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EmersonDrive13Rocks
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Post by EmersonDrive13Rocks on Oct 1, 2006 3:38:38 GMT -5
Variety.com doesn't list a prediction for the releases of Oct 17th. My predict for that week is JoJo's new album called "The High Road".
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Post by when the pawn... on Oct 1, 2006 9:05:22 GMT -5
I think it's funny that Variety thought John & Clay would both get #1, when in reality, Justin clobbered them both.
And they thought Audioslave would beat Beyonce?!
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