j
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Post by j on Sept 27, 2003 23:45:00 GMT -5
It's going to be a close call - will "Can't Hold Us Down" peak at #2 or #3? It depends on whether Beyonce and 3 Doors Down can maintain their momentum next week. Until then...
This is 3 Doors Down's fastest rising song yet, right? Can someone post the chart runs of Kryptonite and When I'm Gone to compare?
It's too bad that Evanescence will be going recurrent. Maybe Avril Lavigne should thank Lil Jon if she's #2 year-end because of this.
Fountains of Wayne jumping 10 spots? :o
Go Stacie + 404.
Jason Mraz has finally lose his bullet. How many weeks bulleted did he have? Was that close to the record at all?
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Post by FreakyFlyBry on Sept 28, 2003 0:02:44 GMT -5
In addition to Evanescence, who else will be going recurrent this week? How many weeks for Michelle Branch, Ashanti, Lil' Kim/50 Cent, Train, Thalia, and MercyMe?
Nickelback should make top 40 this week, as they'll take Thalia's place in the top 40.
Ouch for J-Lo... -1040 :o
I'm surprised there aren't a bunch of songs gaining +1000 at this time yet. Only 3 songs gaining +800 or more (Beyoncé/Sean Paul, Pink, and 3 Doors Down)
Look at all the gainers of 100-250 spins below the top 40! I wonder which ones will make the top 40 and which ones won't.
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Sept 28, 2003 0:05:13 GMT -5
Well, going recurrent one week earlier isn't going to make a difference in year-end spins.
If I'm not mistaken, Ashanti goes recurrent this week too. If that's correct, then "Going Under" will make the top 50 the same week "Bring Me to Life" falls off.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Sept 28, 2003 0:06:54 GMT -5
-I'm still very happy that Santana, Maroon 5, and Mya are all in the Top 10.
-I'm very happy that there's more than one or two hot AC songs in the Top 10.
-50 Cent needs to lose his bullet. "P.I.M.P." is falling down the charts everywhere else, why can't Pop stick the fork in it before it goes Top 10?
-Happy about Stacie Orrico's increasing increases. This is the first "pure Pop" song I've liked in a long time, even though I hated "Stuck."
-Glad to see that John Mayer finally has a bullet of over +200.
-Glad Fountains of Wayne and Liz Phair are pulling through... FOW rapidly and Liz slowly, but I think we can file them as yet 2 more Hot AC hits on the Pop chart.
Who goes recurrent this week besides?
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Sept 28, 2003 0:23:19 GMT -5
Well, going recurrent one week earlier isn't going to make a difference in year-end spins. So does the number of weeks a song spent on the chart affect its year-end position at all? The year-end survey is based purely on total spins, regardless of whether the song was on the chart at the time or a recurrent, right? |
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Post by Eyeball on Sept 28, 2003 6:27:16 GMT -5
"When I'm Gone": 39-36-35-31-27-22-20-16-13-12-10-6-5-2-2-2-1-2-4-6-5-6-7-10-10-14-16-20-20
I must be the only person on earth who wants LESS Hot AC on the chart.
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Chromeozone
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Post by Chromeozone on Sept 28, 2003 7:38:03 GMT -5
Good times on the Pop chart right now:
Hilary Duff and Stacie Orrico both have strong bullets over +300
Michelle Branch is gaining 450+ spins and may break a 500 spin gain by the final update
Mandy Moore has pulled her bullet back to over +100
FeFe Dobson has really recovered and has a bullet over +200
Yay :)
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Sept 28, 2003 8:24:00 GMT -5
So does the number of weeks a song spent on the chart affect its year-end position at all? The year-end survey is based purely on total spins, regardless of whether the song was on the chart at the time or a recurrent, right? Right. All that is needed to be eligible for the year-end chart is being on the chart at least one week as a current during the yearly period. |
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Post by ted11804 on Sept 28, 2003 8:28:21 GMT -5
There is a huge traffic jam in the Top 10, somebody needs to lose their bullet: Christina/Kim, 3DD, Beyonce/Sean, Maroon 5, Santana, or Mya. However by next week I think that 3DD will jump 4-3 and Beyonce will jump 5-4, and Christina will fall.
Gavin DeGraw slowing down :( Looks like he's gonna lose his bullet.
Next round of debuts: Blaque, Fuel, Kiley Dean, Clay Aiken, Missy Elliott, O.A.R.
Hovering forever: Dido, Jewel, Mest, All-American Rejects, M.V.P's
JLO's chart move looks to be 26-38. Ouch.
Top 30 looking good. John Mayer, Liz Phair, Lil Jon, Hilary Duff, Stacie Orrico, Trapt, Kelly Clarkson, Fountains of Wayne, Baby Bash, Pink, all GREAT songs, I like ALL of them, and chances are that most of them will make up the future top 10. I'm excited.
What is the recurrent schedule for the next 4-5 weeks?
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Post by Leafstorm on Sept 28, 2003 8:49:51 GMT -5
Seriously I am quite surprised by the success of "Can't Hold Us Down". I never imagined that this song would beat "Fighter"... Go FeFe!
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Post by ted11804 on Sept 28, 2003 8:58:55 GMT -5
I couldn't agree with you more. And besides, "Fighter" was a better song by a long stretch. I think Christina did release the songs from her album from best to worst. WXKS recently re-added "Dirrty" and I hear it every once in a while now. It reminded me how much I like it. Dirrty, Beautiful, Fighter, then CHUD was the perfect order.
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Post by ExActLy99 on Sept 28, 2003 9:55:14 GMT -5
It looks like this will be the final week for "Unwell"
How many weeks total will that be?
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Sept 28, 2003 11:47:04 GMT -5
What is the recurrent schedule for the next 4-5 weeks? Going recurrent this week: Evanescence, Ashanti Going recurrent next week: Train, Michelle Branch, Matchbox Twenty Going recurrent in 2 weeks: MercyMe, Thalia f/ Fat Joe, Lil' Kim f/ 50 Cent Going recurrent in 3 weeks: nothing Going recurrent in 4 weeks: nothing Going recurrent in 5 weeks: Lumidee, Chingy Beyonce', Matchbox Twenty and Jason Mraz will all go as soon as they fall below #20. |
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Sept 28, 2003 11:48:05 GMT -5
It looks like this will be the final week for "Unwell" How many weeks total will that be? 32 weeks. |
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Post by FreakyFlyBry on Sept 28, 2003 11:56:25 GMT -5
There is a possibility of having 3 top 40 entries by Canadian artists this week, if J-Lo loses enough spins and if Outkast/Mandy Moore/Bow Wow/Black Eyed Peas don't pick up before the final update. Then Fefe Dobson, Simple Plan, and Nickelback would make the top 40.
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Post by ExActLy99 on Sept 28, 2003 12:57:19 GMT -5
32 weeks for Matchbox 20, that ties their longest run in the Top 40, with "Back 2 Good"
IMO, Nickelback's "Someday" is one of the best songs I've heard all year, this should be Top 10! If "How You Remind Me" can get to #1 for 7 weeks, this song should at least get to the top 5. I think this song is a lot better than "How You Remind Me"
J-Lo - Baby I Love U! - ha, ha, ha! That didn't last long.
Michelle Branch's "Breathe" is picking up nicely, hopefully this will do well.
"Shake Ya Tailfeather" lost it's bullet!
How many weeks has it been for Jason Mraz??
How far do you think Fountains of Wayne will go, I'll say Top 10!
Who do you think will be the next #1? 3 Doors Down or Beyonce.
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Post by xtinasnumerounofan on Sept 28, 2003 13:02:39 GMT -5
"Can't Hold Us Down" just does not want to give up- I noticed it was all the way down to +12 at one point this week. Well, she's already proven that she is a FIGHTER. My #3 prediction looks like it'll be right on the money. Next week it looks like 3 Doors Down and Beyonce will jump over her-- I'm ready for "Baby Boy" to take over the top spot. If I had to choose between Beyonce and 3DD for the #1 spot, I'd choose Beyonce, that song gets me crunk, though, I would like both songs to hit the top, if that's possible-- both of 'em are great!
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Sept 28, 2003 13:38:06 GMT -5
Right. All that is needed to be eligible for the year-end chart is being on the chart at least one week as a current during the yearly period. See, that's what I originally thought. But I listened to the Top 100 of 2001 on Rick Dees and "Everything You Want", "Jumpin', Jumpin'" and even "Higher" were on the year-end chart! These tunes went recurrent way before December 2000 (the chart year begins then I assume). Dude, I first heard "Higher" on the radio back in fall of '99!! Can someone explain please? |
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Sept 28, 2003 13:42:19 GMT -5
See, that's what I originally thought. But I listened to the Top 100 of 2001 on Rick Dees and "Everything You Want", "Jumpin', Jumpin'" and even "Higher" were on the year-end chart! These tunes went recurrent way before December 2000 (the chart year begins then I assume). Dude, I first heard "Higher" on the radio back in fall of '99!! Can someone explain please? Rick Dees is rather loose with the "rules". That's about all I can tell you. |
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Sept 28, 2003 13:48:52 GMT -5
Oh, and speaking of recurrents, I checked the Mediabase update and it shows Evanescence at #21. Shouldn't the song have gone recurrent by now and left the chart? This is the 'currents only' chart I'm looking at.
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Sept 28, 2003 13:50:22 GMT -5
Oh, and speaking of recurrents, I checked the Mediabase update and it shows Evanescence at #21. Shouldn't the song have gone recurrent by now and left the chart? This is the 'currents only' chart I'm looking at. Songs don't go recurrent until the last update of the day, usually around 10-11 pm Pacific time. |
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Sept 28, 2003 13:53:27 GMT -5
The possibility of J Lo falling out of the top 40 brings up something interesting- if she does, her top 40 run would be 34-33-32-29-28-26-off. Oh, and speaking of recurrents, I checked the Mediabase update and it shows Evanescence at #21. Shouldn't the song have gone recurrent by now and left the chart? This is the 'currents only' chart I'm looking at. Recurrents aren't removed until the final update, which should be somewhere around 10 PM Pacific time tonight. |
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j
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Post by j on Sept 28, 2003 14:23:27 GMT -5
Well, going recurrent one week earlier isn't going to make a difference in year-end spins. It might. If the gap between Evanescence and Avril Lavigne on November 30 is less than 100, then that would be smaller than the total number of spins Evanescence receives from AT40 and Rick Dees for staying on the chart one extra week. If I didn't know about Mediabase, J. Lo falling off the week after she peaked would make me think that Rick Dees messed up again. |
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Sept 28, 2003 14:49:39 GMT -5
The possibility of J Lo falling out of the top 40 brings up something interesting- if she does, her top 40 run would be 34-33-32-29-28-26-off. She would have to be passed by Fefe Dobson, Simple Plan, and Nickelback, and none of them have done so yet. It'll be close though. |
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j
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Post by j on Sept 28, 2003 15:05:35 GMT -5
Here's the Noon update.
26 40 JENNIFER LOPEZ Baby I Love U! 1234 2226 -992 7.533
50 41 FEFE DOBSON Take Me Away 1229 1004 225
47 42 SIMPLE PLAN Perfect 1218 1070 148
48 43 NICKELBACK Someday 1215 1016 199
37 44 THALIA I Want You 1211 1515 -304
49 45 OUTKAST Hey Ya 1208 1005 203
45 46 MANDY MOORE Have A Little Faith ... 1190 1087 103
46 47 BOW WOW Let's Get Down 1185 1070 115
Will J. Lo hang on?
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Post by chebingeo on Sept 28, 2003 16:00:20 GMT -5
The only difference in spins when songs go recurrent year-end wise is they fall off Casey & Rick Dees' charts which costs them about 200 spins.
SYT has gotta be the weakest #1 there's been in a long time!!! I just hope Beyonce runs out of steam quick so 3 Doors Down can take over in 2 weeks or less.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Sept 28, 2003 16:15:45 GMT -5
Here's the Noon update. 26 40 JENNIFER LOPEZ Baby I Love U! 1234 2226 -992 7.533 50 41 FEFE DOBSON Take Me Away 1229 1004 225 47 42 SIMPLE PLAN Perfect 1218 1070 148 48 43 NICKELBACK Someday 1215 1016 199 37 44 THALIA I Want You 1211 1515 -304 49 45 OUTKAST Hey Ya 1208 1005 203 45 46 MANDY MOORE Have A Little Faith ... 1190 1087 103 46 47 BOW WOW Let's Get Down 1185 1070 115 Will J. Lo hang on? Let's not forget - Ashanti & Evanescence are both going recurrent, so J. Lo. will be bumped up 2 more spots. Unless alll 3 of those songs pass her, she will stay on. Right now that is not looking likely... MB20's Unwell may or may not fall out next week. It all depends on how many spins they lose and Hilary can gain. Right now the difference is about 550 spins. If Hilary has a bad week next week in terms of gains, and MB20 do not lose so quickly, they might stick out a 33rd week on the chart. And as others expressed, I am just shocked (and disappointed) at Christina still gaining spins. This song is her worst release to date IMO (yes, even worse than Dirrrrrrrrrty). I hope that this song quickly exits the top 10. I say by late-November, the song will be out of the top 20. |
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Post by Eyeball on Sept 28, 2003 16:46:15 GMT -5
Back to the subject of recurrent songs not being eligible for the year-end chart...
"It's Been A While" by Staind was the #56 song on the AT40 year-end chart for 2002. Its last week on AT40 was December 15, 2001.
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Sept 28, 2003 17:03:00 GMT -5
Back to the subject of recurrent songs not being eligible for the year-end chart... "It's Been A While" by Staind was the #56 song on the AT40 year-end chart for 2002. Its last week on AT40 was December 15, 200 1. The R&R chart year actually runs from December-November, meaning that the 2003 year end chart will be based on airplay from December 2002 through November 2003. |
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Sept 28, 2003 17:49:17 GMT -5
Whoa, J Lo's all the way down to #46 now.
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