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Post by ted11804 on Oct 30, 2003 15:59:05 GMT -5
Let's take a look at how things are going this week:
Beyonce stays for her 2nd week @ #1. "Baby Boy" still has a decent bullet and is already a bigger hit than "Crazy in Love." CIL only got into the 8700s and Baby Boy already broke 8800. Where will Baby Boy peak in spins?
I thought 3 Doors Down were down (yesterday when they had -26) and now they have a +13 bullet again.
It looks Trapt may jump to #3 this week.
Here's why:
Nelly.....................6292...-615
Santana...............6212...-74
Maroon 5..............5818...-488
F.O.Wayne...........5817...+395 drastic decrease in gains
Trapt....................5799...+746
Trapt will take #3
FOW and Santana will take #4 and #5
Maroon 5 and Nelly will take #6 and #7
Isn't that scary?
Baby Bash will enter the Top 10 at either 8 or 9 (depending on Christina's falls, looks like #9 right now)
Outkast should enter at #10, and it seems confusing at this point as to where BEP, Lil Jon, Stacie, Hilary, Britney etc. will fall.
No Doubt enter strong into the Top 20, and Simple Plan aswell as Pink falls out.
Michelle Branch, Bubba Sparxxx, Staind, Black Eyed Peas, Fefe Dobson, Nelly Furtado are still hanging on but rising very slowly. Clay Aiken is moving faster again.
Not very impressive for Enrique Iglesias. I expected a lot more for the opening week or two. Youngblodz and Christina Aguilera will most likely enter the Tpo 50 at this point. Pharrell f/ Jay-Z and Maria? have fallen out.
Can someone post the recurrent schedule for the next few weeks?
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Oct 30, 2003 16:06:23 GMT -5
I would love to see Trapt jump up to #3, but it looks like it will be very very likely next week.
I hope Fefe and Michelle can make it top Top 10 with very small gains. I know it's a long shot for Fefe.... but you never know.
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Oct 30, 2003 16:18:43 GMT -5
Actually, the race for #3 is between Trapt and Santana.
If you assume that 4/7 of the week has already been completed, extrapolating spin increases/decreases using current trend, you get the following:
1. Baby Boy: 8810 + [3/7 * 401] = 8982
2. Here Without You: 8440 + [3/7 * 20] = 8449
3. Why Don't You and I: 6216 - [3/7 * 70] = 6186
4. Headstrong: 5798 + [3/7 * 745] = 6117
5. Shake Ya Tailfeather: 6278 - [3/7 * 629] = 6008
6. Stacy's Mom: 5822 + [3/7 * 400] = 5993
7. Harder to Breathe: 5822 - [3/7 * 484] = 5615
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Oct 30, 2003 19:06:58 GMT -5
Let's take a look at how things are going this week: Beyonce stays for her 2nd week @ #1. "Baby Boy" still has a decent bullet and is already a bigger hit than "Crazy in Love." CIL only got into the 8700s and Baby Boy already broke 8800. Where will Baby Boy peak in spins? Wow, I don't remember CIL in the 8700s, especially since BEP eclipsed 8800 spins on like their 3rd or 4th week @ #1. Here's my educated guess: #10 Outkast - Hey Ya! #11 Black Eyed Peas f/ Justin Timberlake - Where Is The Love? #12 Lil' Jon f/ The Eastside Boyz - Get Low #13 Britney Spears f/ Madonna - Me Against The Music #14 Stacie Orrico - (There's Gotta Be) More To Life NEXT week, things get interesting again for top 10 entries as CHUD could fall out of the top 10, opening the door for Britney to make it in. No Doubt will probably need one more week after that to gain enough to overcome Britney. My estimates are that by Sunday, No Doubt will have about 3200 spins (be at #16). Next week, assuming No Doubt again gains 1000 spins (which may or may not happen... not sure), that would only put them at 4200 spins, and assuming thet Britney doesn't pull a huge negative, then No Doubt will have to wait two weeks to overcome her. |
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Post by radiorules on Oct 30, 2003 21:17:18 GMT -5
"Baby Boy" is not yet a bigger hit than "Crazy In Love" because CIL did reach 8800 spins on R & R and she even peaked in the 8900 range for a couple of days on mediabase, and that was with 125 stations playing her. BB has 127 stations playing it with 8800 spins, she will need to get a little more higher if it wants to be a bigger hit than CIL.
I personally think Britney has come to a premature peak. She only gained 20 spins today and i bet those numbers will continue to shrink. That's a weird chart run: 26-14-13-14.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Oct 30, 2003 21:43:50 GMT -5
You can't really say 'Baby Boy' is a bigger hit than 'Crazy In Love' because it had a higher airplay peak in a single 7-day period. When the general totals are added up, then you could say that. It looks like it might pass it though. How's 'Crazy In Love' doing with recurrent spins?
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jond7699
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Post by jond7699 on Oct 30, 2003 21:52:56 GMT -5
It does seem that "Baby Boy" is the bigger of her two hits.
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Post by radiorules on Oct 30, 2003 21:54:09 GMT -5
Didn't CIL do a little better on the other formats? If it did then that's probably going to be the bigger hit. In all honesty i think they are very equal.
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Oct 30, 2003 22:04:22 GMT -5
"Baby Boy" deserves to be a bigger hit!  I feel bad for Britney, she deserves another Top 10 hit, she still could get it though! |
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Oct 30, 2003 22:28:23 GMT -5
Actually, the race for #3 is between Trapt and Santana. Yeah.. as much as I want Trapt to get tp #3, I hope Santana can sneak into #3 this week first so it also gets credit as a #3 song. Even though "Why DOn't You & I" exceeded my expectations, I still think it's an underrated song. Let Trapt move in next week. "Baby Boy" deserves to be a bigger hit! I agree. I like "Baby Boy" much more as well. |
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Oct 30, 2003 23:20:05 GMT -5
"Baby Boy" is not yet a bigger hit than "Crazy In Love" because CIL did reach 8800 spins on R & R and she even peaked in the 8900 range for a couple of days on mediabase, and that was with 125 stations playing her. BB has 127 stations playing it with 8800 spins, she will need to get a little more higher if it wants to be a bigger hit than CIL. Baby Boy has MONSTER spins on Urban and RHY as well, way more than Crazy In Love did at its peak. Baby Boy is developing into and will be the bigger of her two hits. A "premature" peak? What does that exactly mean? What's a "mature" or "post-mature" peak? |
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Luckie Starchild
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Post by Luckie Starchild on Oct 30, 2003 23:26:12 GMT -5
A "premature" peak? What does that exactly mean? What's a "mature" or "post-mature" peak? I'm going to take a wild guess and say that radiorules meant that the song peaked early on. Just a guess... |
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Post by codenut on Oct 31, 2003 1:37:57 GMT -5
O.A.R. looks ready to make a Top 50 debut :o.
Pharrell will bottom out before the week is done, making way for O.A.R.
Kiley Dean & Young Gunz are dark horses this week for Top 50 debuts unless Live bottoms out these next days.
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j
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Post by j on Oct 31, 2003 10:09:56 GMT -5
"Baby Boy" deserves to be a bigger hit! It doesn't matter which one is the bigger hit. Personally, I think Baby Boy is the bigger hit. It's also a better song. |
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Post by singingsparrow on Oct 31, 2003 13:54:39 GMT -5
Well the bullet for "Headstrong" has decreased a bit since the last update, and they are now actually further apart in total spins than Fountain Of Wayne; when this topic was made they were 18 spins apart, now they're about 50.
I think the most likely scenario for this week will be:
#1 (2): Beyonce/Sean Paul: Baby Boy:
#2: 3 Doors Down: Here Without You
#3: Santana: Why Don't You & I?
#4: Nelly/P.Diddy/Murphy Lee: Shake Ya Tailfeather
#5: Fountains of Wayne: Stacy's Mom
#6: Trapt: Headstrong
#7: Maroon 5: Harder To Breathe
#8: Christina Aguilera/Lil Kim: Can't Hold Us Down
#9: Baby Bash: Suga Suga
#10: Outkast: Hey Ya
Of course Trapt has a shot at leapfrogging FOW before the Sunday evening update, and Nelly may possibly slide as much as 3-6, but with two days remaining, I think Nelly will only slide 3-4.
Sincerely,
Noah Eaton
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Post by chebingeo on Oct 31, 2003 15:16:14 GMT -5
OAR & Christina Aguilera should make top 50. Chingy & Lumidee go recurrent. Looks like Live & Mandy Moore might get 1 last week in the top 40, even though both songs appear to be done.
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Cerebro
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Post by Cerebro on Oct 31, 2003 17:55:26 GMT -5
Chingy & Lumidee go recurrent. Actually, no recurrents for 11/7. Going recurrent for 11/14:Chingy Going recurrent for 11/21:Lumidee Going recurrent for 11/28:Justin Timberlake; The Ataris Going recurrent for 12/5:Fabolous; Christina Aguilera (if below #20 in 4 weeks time) Going recurrent once they fall below #20:Black Eyed Peas (week 25 on 11/7); Maroon5 (week 19); Santana (week 19); Nelly/P. Diddy/Murphy Lee (week 20) |
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Oct 31, 2003 21:32:04 GMT -5
Actually, no recurrents for 11/7. Actually, John is exactly correct. In the R&R magazine for the October 24th chart, both Lumidee and Chingy were in their 19th week. That means this week (the October 31st chart) is the 20th week, and so for the 11/7 chart, Chingy and Lumidee are moved to recurrentland. Unless, for some strange reason, R&R made an error in their magazine. |
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Oct 31, 2003 21:32:15 GMT -5
Actually, no recurrents for 11/7. Maybe they've messed up again, but according to R&R this would be week 21 for both Lumidee and Chingy. |
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mst3k
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Post by mst3k on Oct 31, 2003 21:48:25 GMT -5
R&R must've messed up, because my records show 11/7 will be Chingy's 20th week and Lumidee's 19th. Chingy debuted on 6/27 (same week as "Shake Ya Tailfeather"), and Lumidee entered on 7/4 (same week as Santana and Maroon 5).
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Oct 31, 2003 22:18:27 GMT -5
How many weeks for Live now? Because I'm pretty sure R&R lists that song as having been on for longer than it really has been too.
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Radical347
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Post by Radical347 on Oct 31, 2003 23:23:51 GMT -5
"Heaven" seems to be correct (14 weeks in the 10/24 magazine.) It seems like that song has been on for an eternity.
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Cerebro
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Post by Cerebro on Oct 31, 2003 23:41:58 GMT -5
R&R must've messed up, because my records show 11/7 will be Chingy's 20th week and Lumidee's 19th. Chingy debuted on 6/27 (same week as "Shake Ya Tailfeather"), and Lumidee entered on 7/4 (same week as Santana and Maroon 5). Yep! My records show the same as yours. I'm definitely smelling another error here. According to my records, the 11/7 chart will be Live's 14th week (It debuted the same week as Mya and Liz Phair). Let's compare notes. Here are the "weeks on" that I have for the 10/31 chart: Blaque (1); Eamon (1); Fuel (3); Missy Elliott (2); Dido (4); Josh Kelley (4); Maria (9); Enrique Iglesias (1); Chingy "Holidae In" (1); Pharrell (9); Mandy Moore (7); Live (13); Clay Aiken (3); Lumidee (18); Ludacris (3); Nelly Furtado (3); Black Eyed Peas "Shut Up" (5); FeFe Dobson (7); Justin Timberlake (17); Staind (10); Bubba Sparxxx (9); The Ataris (17); No Doubt (2); Nickelback (6); Michelle Branch (4); Simple Plan (7); Kelly Clarkson (12); 50 Cent (15); Chingy "Right Thurr" (19); John Mayer (10); Fabolous (16); Liz Phair (13); Matchbox Twenty (10); Pink (6); Mya (13); Hilary Duff (14); OutKast (7); Britney Spears (3); Stacie Orrico (14); Baby Bash (10); Lil' Jon/The East Side Boyz (12); Black Eyed Peas "Where Is The Love?" (24); Trapt (15); Christina Aguilera (16); Fountains Of Wayne (9); Maroon5 (18); Santana (18); Nelly/P. Diddy/Murphy Lee (19); 3 Doors Down (13); Beyonce' (11) Any other discrepancies? |
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Post by krazymack on Nov 1, 2003 8:26:09 GMT -5
I'm quite happy to see Beyonce with a second solo #1 on the pop charts with "Baby Boy." It's a great song! |
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Post by radiorules on Nov 1, 2003 8:30:01 GMT -5
Britney has lost spins, and her gain is down to +270
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Post by krazymack on Nov 1, 2003 8:48:11 GMT -5
That's so terrible, I am really upset to see Britney's song performing like this. At this point, I am not quite sure if it the track is going to make the top 10. I really like "Me Against The Music." It's such a radio friendly single. What's going on with pop radio? It's just so unfair for a song that was once showing promise on the pop charts, now seems to be suffering all of a sudden.
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Nov 1, 2003 9:23:01 GMT -5
Let's compare notes. Here are the "weeks on" that I have for the 10/31 chart: Blaque (1); Eamon (1); Fuel (3); Missy Elliott (2); Dido (4); Josh Kelley (4); Maria (9); Enrique Iglesias (1); Chingy "Holidae In" (1); Pharrell (9); Mandy Moore (7); Live (13); Clay Aiken (3); Lumidee (18); Ludacris (3); Nelly Furtado (3); Black Eyed Peas "Shut Up" (5); FeFe Dobson (7); Justin Timberlake (17); Staind (10); Bubba Sparxxx (9); The Ataris (17); No Doubt (2); Nickelback (6); Michelle Branch (4); Simple Plan (7); Kelly Clarkson (12); 50 Cent (15); Chingy "Right Thurr" (19); John Mayer (10); Fabolous (16); Liz Phair (13); Matchbox Twenty (10); Pink (6); Mya (13); Hilary Duff (14); OutKast (7); Britney Spears (3); Stacie Orrico (14); Baby Bash (10); Lil' Jon/The East Side Boyz (12); Black Eyed Peas "Where Is The Love?" (24); Trapt (15); Christina Aguilera (16); Fountains Of Wayne (9); Maroon5 (18); Santana (18); Nelly/P. Diddy/Murphy Lee (19); 3 Doors Down (13); Beyonce' (11) Any other discrepancies? Yes. In the magazine, "Shake Ya Tailfeather", "Here Without You" and "Baby Boy" are all listed as having been on one week longer than they actually have. |
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Nov 1, 2003 9:56:43 GMT -5
Britney has lost spins, and her gain is down to +270 What you forgot to mention is that many songs are down from yesterday because of stations playing Halloween music. Notice that yesterday, for example, No Doubt was gaining about 1060 spins, and this morning their gains are now 950 spins. Same thing with many other songs on the chart (Clay, Outkast, Trapt...) So please, if you're going to present facts, at least present the whole story and not just your own version to satisfy your personal agenda... |
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Nov 1, 2003 9:59:27 GMT -5
That's so terrible, I am really upset to see Britney's song performing like this. At this point, I am not quite sure if it the track is going to make the top 10. I really like "Me Against The Music." It's such a radio friendly single. What's going on with pop radio? It's just so unfair for a song that was once showing promise on the pop charts, now seems to be suffering all of a sudden. I could not agree with you more. This song should be an instant top 10 success, but pop radio is so obsessed with other (bad) music that they can't see this song's potential. I still cannot believe that CHUD made it to #3 - it is Christina's worst single IMO (yes, that's even including the horrible Dirrty). Plus, other songs like Right Thurr & Get Low can make the top 10, but Britney with one of the best pop singles released this year cannot even see top 10 status. Oh well... :'( |
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msanoja
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Post by msanoja on Nov 1, 2003 10:31:45 GMT -5
I could not agree with you more. This song should be an instant top 10 success, but pop radio is so obsessed with other (bad) music that they can't see this song's potential. I still cannot believe that CHUD made it to #3 - it is Christina's worst single IMO (yes, that's even including the horrible Dirrty). Plus, other songs like Right Thurr & Get Low can make the top 10, but Britney with one of the best pop singles released this year cannot even see top 10 status. Oh well... :'( Yep, pop radio sucks! |
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