9/27 Predictions

[edwin1961]

I haven't had much time to post recently, so I'll get my prediciton out of the way now.


1. Do You Believe Me Now
2. Waitin’ On A Woman
3. Don’t Think I Don’t Think About It
4. Everybody Wants To Go To Heaven
5. All Summer Long
6. She Never Cried In Front Of Me
7. Troubadour
8. You Look Good In My Shirt
9. Just A Dream
10. Holler Back
11. Johnny & June
12. Country Man
13. Should’ve Said No
14. Let It Go
15. Relentless
16. All I Ever Wanted
17. Roll With Me
18. I’ll Walk
19. All I Want To Do
20. Love Remembers

21. Lookin’ For A Good Time
22. In Color
23. You Can Let Go
24. Chicken Fried
25. Love Story (NEW)
26. Don’t You Know You’re Beautfiul
27. Sounds So Good
28. Already Gone (NEW)
29. Let Me
30. Anything Goes
31. Start A Band (NEW)
32. Don’t
33. Here (NEW)
34. Muddy Water
35. She Would’t Be Gone
36. Crazy Days
37. I Would
38. Fine Line
39. Come On Over
40. I Do

[S4C]

Sept 14, 2008 16:24:32 GMT -5 edwin1961 said:

26. Love Story (NEW)
28. Already Gone (NEW)
33. Here (NEW)
35. Start A Band (NEW)

Look at the flood of songs. Madness.

[rowdawg21]

1. Do You Believe Me Now
2. Waitin' On A Woman
3. Don’t Think I Don’t Think About It
4. Everybody Wants To Go To Heaven
5. All Summer Long
6. She Never Cried In Front Of Me
7. Troubadour
8. Just A Dream
9. You Look Good In My Shirt
10. Holler Back
11. Johnny And June
12. Let It Go
13. Country Man
14. Relentless
15. All I Ever Wanted
16. Should've Said No
17. Roll With Me
18. I’ll Walk
19. Love Remembers
20. All I Want To Do

21. Lookin' For A Good Time
22. In Color
23. You Can Let Go
24. Chicken Fried
25. Love Story
26. Don't You Know You're Beautiful
27. Sounds So Good
28. Already Gone
29. Anything Goes
30. Let Me
31. Start A Band
32. Don’t
33. Here
34. Muddy Water
35. She Wouldn't Be Gone
36. Crazy Days
37. Fine Line
38. I Would
39. I Do
40. Bob That Head

[ericNY2002]

1. Do You Believe Me Now
2. Waitin On A Woman
3. Don't Think I Don't Think About It
4. Everybody Wants to Go To Heaven
5. All Summer Long
6. She Never Cried In Front of Me
7. Troubadour
8. Just A Dream
9. You Look Good In My Heart
10. Holler Back
11. Johnny and June
12. Let It Go
13. Country Man
14. Relentless
15. All I Ever Wanted
16. Roll With Me
17. Should've Said No (week 18)
18. I'll Walk
19. Love Remembers
20. In Color

21. Lookin For A Good Time
22. You Can Let Go
23. All I Want to Do (week 17)
24. Chicken Fried
25. Love Story (NEW)
26. Don't You Know You're Beautiful
27. Sounds So Good
28. Already Gone (NEW)
29. Let Me
30. Anything Goes
31. Start A Band (NEW)
32. Don't
33. Here (NEW)
34. Muddy Water
35. She Wouldn't Be Gone
36. Crazy Days
37. Fine Line
38. I Would
39. I Do
40. For You

[someguy]

1. Do You Believe Me Now
2. Waitin' On A Woman (I guess Start A Band took away some of its spins)
3. Don't Think I Don't Think About It
4. Everybody Wants To Go To Heaven
5. All Summer Long
6. She Never Cried In Front Of Me
7. Troubadour
8. Just A Dream
9. You Look Good In My Shirt (week 16)
10. Holler Back
11. Johnny And June
12. Let It Go
13. Country Man
14. Relentless
15. All I Ever Wanted
16. Roll With Me
17. Should've Said No (week 18)
18. I'll Walk
19. Love Remembers
20. All I Want To Do (week 17)

21. Lookin' For A Good Time
22. In Color
23. You Can Let Go
24. Chicken Fried
25. Love Story (debut)
26. Don't You Know You're Beautiful
27. Sounds So Good
28. Already Gone (debut)
29. Let Me
30. Anything Goes
31. Start A Band (debut - I agree that this will probably be the first of the new songs to #1, followed by Sugarland)
32. Don't
33. Here (debut)
34. Muddy Water
35. She Wouldn't Be Gone
36. Crazy Days
37. I Would
38. Fine Line
39. I Do
40. Last Call (debut)

41. Bob That Head (week 13)
42. For You
43. Don't Think I Can't Love You
44. Somebody Said A Prayer
45. Come On Over (week 16)

[rowdawg21]

Country
*** No. 1 *** #1 Jimmy Wayne Do You Believe Me Now (Valory)
Debut/Breaker/Most Increased Audience #25 Taylor Swift Love Story (Big Machine)
Breaker #28 Sugarland Already Gone (Mercury)
Debut/Breaker #31 Brad Paisley Duet With Keith Urban Start A Band (Arista Nashville)
Breaker #33 Rascal Flatts Here (Lyric Street)
Breaker #43 Jake Owen Don't Think I Can't Love You (RCA)
Breaker #46 Kristy Lee Cook 15 Minutes Of Shame (19/Arista Nashville)
Debut #57 Joey & Rory Cheater, Cheater (Vanguard/Sugar Hill/Nine North)
Debut #59 Whitney Duncan When I Said I Would (Warner Bros./WRN)

[Ten Pound Hammer]

1. Do You Believe Me Now (first non-consecutive #1 since Come a Little Closer three years ago)
2. Waitin' on a Woman
3. Don't Think I Don't Think About It (easily #1 next week)
4. All Summer Long
5. Everybody Wants to Go to Heaven
6. She Never Cried in Front of Me
7. Troubadour
8. Just a Dream
9. You Look Good in My Shirt (week 16)
10. Holler Back
11. Johnny & June
12. Let It Go (which is exactly what Tim should do to his label)
13. Country Man
14. All I Ever Wanted
15. Roll with Me
16. Should've Said No (week 18)
17. I'll Walk
18. In Color (should at least match The Dollar)
19. Love Remembers
20. All I Want to Do (week 17)

21. Lookin' for a Good Time
22. You Can Let Go
23. Chicken Fried (looking good so far; future Top 10?)
24. Don't You Know You're Beautiful
25. Love Story
26. Sounds So Good
27. Let Me
28. Already Gone
29. Anything Goes
30. Don't
31. Start a Band (very rare to see two songs that are T40 in their first week)
32. Muddy Water
33. Here (lots of big debuts this week, huh?)
34. She Wouldn't Be Gone
35. Crazy Days
36. I Would
37. Fine Line
38. I Do
39. Somebody Said a Prayer
40. Last Call

[zaclord]

Sept 15, 2008 14:52:29 GMT -5 rowdawg21 said:

Country
*** No. 1 *** #1 Jimmy Wayne Do You Believe Me Now (Valory)
Debut/Breaker/Most Increased Audience #25 Taylor Swift Love Story (Big Machine)
Breaker #28 Sugarland Already Gone (Mercury)
Debut/Breaker #31 Brad Paisley Duet With Keith Urban Start A Band (Arista Nashville)
Breaker #33 Rascal Flatts Here (Lyric Street)
Breaker #43 Jake Owen Don't Think I Can't Love You (RCA)
Breaker #46 Kristy Lee Cook 15 Minutes Of Shame (19/Arista Nashville)
Debut #57 Joey & Rory Cheater, Cheater (Vanguard/Sugar Hill/Nine North)
Debut #59 Whitney Duncan When I Said I Would (Warner Bros./WRN)

YAY! Jimmy is #1 again! Great debut for Taylor and Brad/Keith! Nice jumps for Rascal Flatts and Sugarland. Good to see Jake & Kristy as Breakers also. And I am SOOOO happy for Joey & Rory and Whitney! but especially J&R! i did not think they were gonna chart!

[S4C]

1. Do You Believe Me Now
2. Waitin' On A Woman
3. Don't Think I Don't Think About It
4. Everybody Wants To Go To Heaven
5. All Summer Long
6. She Never Cried In Front of Me
7. Troubadour
8. Just A Dream
9. You Look Good In My Shirt
10. Holler Back
11. Johnny And June
12. Country Man
13. Let It Go
14. Relentless
15. All I Ever Wanted
16. Should've Said No
17. Roll With Me
18. I'll Walk
19. Love Remembers
20. All I Want To Do

21. Lookin' For A Good Time
22. In Color
23. You Can Let Go
24. Chicken Fried
25. Love Story
26. Don't You Know You're Beautiful
27. Sounds So Good
28. Already Gone
29. Let Me
30. Anything Goes
31. Start A Band
32. Don't
33. Here
34. Muddy Water
35. She Wouldn't Be Gone
36. Crazy Days
37. I Would
38. Fine Line
39. I Do
40. Bob That Head

[kw9461]

1. Do You Believe Me Now?
2. Waitin' on a Woman
3. Don't Think I Don't Think About It
4. Everybody Wants to Go to Heaven
5. All Summer Long (best chance at #1 may be to beat Kenny there)
6. She Never Cried in Front of Me (still looking good to bridge the Kenny-Carrie gap)
7. Troubadour
8. Just a Dream
9. You Look Good in My Shirt (another #1 that will clog up space below #10 as it falls)
10. Holler Back

11. Johnny & June
12. Let It Go
13. Country Man
14. Relentless
15. All I Ever Wanted
16. Roll with Me
17. Should've Said No
18. I'll Walk
19. Love Remembers
20. In Color
21. Lookin' for a Good Time
22. You Can Let Go (maybe this song will free up a chart space next week)
23. All I Want To Do
24. Chicken Fried
25. Love Story (debut)
26. Don't You Know You're Beautiful
27. Sounds So Good
28. Already Gone (debut)
29. Let Me
30. Anything Goes
31. Start a Band (debut) (It'll be interesting to see which hits #1 first; this, Love Story, Already Gone or Here. My money is on this)
32. Don't
33. Here (debut)
34. Muddy Water
35. She Wouldn't Be Gone
36. Crazy Days
37. Fine Line
38. I Would (...be concerned if I was a Phil fan)
39. For You (part of me expects Bob That Head to be here, but I just that era to end ASAP)
40. I Do

[msm444]

1. Do You Believe Me Now
2. Waitin' On A Woman
3. Don't Think I Don't Think About It
4. All Summer Long
5. Everybody Wants To Go To Heaven
6. She Never Cried In Front Of Me
7. Troubadour
8. Just A Dream
9. You Look Good In My Shirt
10. Holler Back
11. Johnny And June
12. Let It Go
13. Country Man
14. Relentless
15. All I Ever Wanted
16. Roll With Me
17. Should've Said No
18. I'll Walk
19. Love Remembers
20. In Color

21. All I Want To Do
22. Lookin' For A Good Time
23. You Can Let Go
24. Chicken Fried
25. Love Story
26. Don't You Know You're Beautiful
27. Sounds So Good
28. Already Gone
29. Let Me
30. Anything Goes
31. Start A Band
32. Don't
33. Here
34. Muddy Water
35. She Wouldn't Be Gone
36. Crazy Days
37. I Would
38. Fine Line
39. I Do
40. Somebody Said A Prayer

[Ten Pound Hammer]

Throwing my score out, since SOMEONE didn't tell me I left out Jason Aldean until it was too late…

1-20
1. s4c - 16
2. edwin1961, rowdawg21 - 14
3. ericny2002, someguy, kw9461 - 12
4. msm444 - 10

21-40
1. rowdawg21, s4c - 14
2. msm444, someguy - 13
3. edwin1961 - 12
4. ericny2002 - 10
5. kw9461 - 9

[someguy]

There were an awful lot of 'grace weeks' given this week. Heidi Newfield, Luke Bryan, Chuck Wicks, Jason Aldean and Crystal Shawanda all lost audience and were below #10 in at least their 21st week. Heidi even lost her bullet and was allowed to stay on. I wonder if there was a panel change, or if Billboard realized that the two massive debuts (as well as the two other songs that climbed at least 13 spots and gained over 3.6 million AI) took away from songs that aren't necessarily finished yet.

[edwin1961]

Sept 17, 2008 14:41:58 GMT -5 someguy said:

There were an awful lot of 'grace weeks' given this week. Heidi Newfield, Luke Bryan, Chuck Wicks, Jason Aldean and Crystal Shawanda all lost audience and were below #10 in at least their 21st week. Heidi even lost her bullet and was allowed to stay on. I wonder if there was a panel change, or if Billboard realized that the two massive debuts (as well as the two other songs that climbed at least 13 spots and gained over 3.6 million AI) took away from songs that aren't necessarily finished yet.

That's a possibility....I counted 21 songs that had no bullets. That's just over a third of the total chart. I believe we'll see a lot of songs change places next week all due to the giant debuts and big moves this week.

[rowdawg21]

There were definitely no panel changes this week since the audience bullets reflect what last week's audience totals were. I think the loss of bullets for most songs occurred because of all the quick moving songs. Another minor factor could have been the fact that some stations in Texas didn't have regular programming airing due to the hurricane. Next week I expect all songs to have a bullet except for the ones that are falling quickly (Brad and Jimmy, for example).

[zaclord]

well Heidi, Luke, Chuck, and Jason all reached a new peak this week so that is why they did not fall off. Crystal somehow managed to keep her bullet, that is how she stayed on.

[rowdawg21]

Sept 17, 2008 20:30:03 GMT -5 @zaclord said:

well Heidi, Luke, Chuck, and Jason all reached a new peak this week so that is why they did not fall off.

This is speculation, not fact. No one definitively knows why Billboard keeps songs on the chart when they should technically go recurrent.

[zaclord]

well isn't that why they let Lee Brice re-enter with "Happy Endings"? because he reached a new peak? i think it would be dumb if a song, like Heidi's, has lost a bullet but would be getting a new peak this week, but Billboard removed it instead. that would be stupid.

but why else would Heidi stay on when she had -0.762 audience this week? guarantee should would have been gone if Keith A and Taylor didn't fall behind her.

[S4C]

Also, I'm pretty sure Billboard adjusts its audience when there is a panel change. (IOW, they'll change the LW figures to reflect the current panel, so that the bullets aren't all screwy.)

[rowdawg21]

Sept 17, 2008 20:50:14 GMT -5 @zaclord said:

but why else would Heidi stay on when she had -0.762 audience this week?

As another poster mentioned before, it could be because of all the huge gains from superstar artists. Many songs lost their bullets for this reason.

Your explanation is certainly reasonable and possible, but you stated it like it was a fact, and it's not.

Sept 17, 2008 20:52:54 GMT -5 S4C said:

Also, I'm pretty sure Billboard adjusts its audience when there is a panel change. (IOW, they'll change the LW figures to reflect the current panel, so that the bullets aren't all screwy.)

Yep, you're correct there. That's what I was trying to get at in my previous post, but I didn't go too in-depth on that point.

[kw9461]

Just an interesting observation from this week, but all 4 of the big debuts this week came from artists who already had a song in the T40. I don't recall the last time 4 different artists had 2 T40 songs at the same time.

[someguy]

And actually, since the Brad/Keith song is a duet, 5 artists technically have 2 songs in the top 40 at the same time.