#brayden
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Post by #brayden on Feb 22, 2011 22:17:55 GMT -5
^^^I think "Mean" will continue the Country #1s, but I'm a bit skeptical as to how it will do in her streak of Pop crossover successes. But anything is possible with Big Machine. And I'm pretty much certain that this week's #1 will be BTD. It's just a matter of how long it will last on top before "Don't You Wanna Stay" swallows it up, because it looks like DYWS will take over #1 once Taylor's done for the next 3-4 weeks after, which will block out Brad, Billy, and Thompson Square. Even Lady A might suffer, too. The song is just too strong to not get a good 3 weeks on top. I hope ZBB isn't affected by it because I really like "Colder Weather". Are you talking about the #1 on Billboard or the Mediabase #1? Regardless, I'm hoping for both! I don't know how I feel about 'Mean' being the next single, if that's what it really is. I was pulling for either 'The Story Of Us' or 'Sparks Fly', but 'Mean' would be an interesting choice that'll definitely please country listeners and should be guaranteed Top 5 on country. I just hope they don't attempt to turn it into a crossover hit.
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Post by passionformusic on Feb 23, 2011 9:00:25 GMT -5
Really interesting race for nr1. I think Jason/Kelly have the edge now after being on Ellen.
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Jonsolo
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Post by Jonsolo on Feb 23, 2011 11:23:43 GMT -5
And I'm pretty much certain that this week's #1 will be BTD. It's just a matter of how long it will last on top before "Don't You Wanna Stay" swallows it up, because it looks like DYWS will take over #1 once Taylor's done for the next 3-4 weeks after, which will block out Brad, Billy, and Thompson Square. Even Lady A might suffer, too. The song is just too strong to not get a good 3 weeks on top. I hope ZBB isn't affected by it because I really like "Colder Weather". Not sure which chart you were referring to, but all the signs point toward the Aldean/Clarkson duet topping the Billboard chart next week. The duet was only 1.2 mill behind Blake on this week's chart, while Brad and Taylor were 1.4 and 2.7 mill behind them, respectively. So far this week, since Monday, the duet's added 1.2 mill on MB, matching the 1.0 and 1.2 mill that Brad and Taylor have gained. Blake's dropped 0.7 mill, freeing up the top spot, and looks to be a sure thing to going toward the duet. I agree that it's tough to imagine that the duet will get less than three weeks at #1, maybe even four, but that still won't be long enough to block out all of Brad, Taylor, Billy, and Thompson Square (Lady A's not making it no matter what). At least two of those four will have the chance to sneak in a week at #1 before Zac Brown/Rucker near the top (well, Thompson might have to wait until afterward, but they've been acting like a bonafide #1 contender for several weeks now).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2011 17:42:23 GMT -5
^^^I think "Mean" will continue the Country #1s, but I'm a bit skeptical as to how it will do in her streak of Pop crossover successes. But anything is possible with Big Machine. And I'm pretty much certain that this week's #1 will be BTD. It's just a matter of how long it will last on top before "Don't You Wanna Stay" swallows it up, because it looks like DYWS will take over #1 once Taylor's done for the next 3-4 weeks after, which will block out Brad, Billy, and Thompson Square. Even Lady A might suffer, too. The song is just too strong to not get a good 3 weeks on top. I hope ZBB isn't affected by it because I really like "Colder Weather". Are you talking about the #1 on Billboard or the Mediabase #1? Regardless, I'm hoping for both! I don't know how I feel about 'Mean' being the next single, if that's what it really is. I was pulling for either 'The Story Of Us' or 'Sparks Fly', but 'Mean' would be an interesting choice that'll definitely please country listeners and should be guaranteed Top 5 on country. I just hope they don't attempt to turn it into a crossover hit. I was betting on #1 on Mediabase, and if that happened, the #1 on BB would also be doable. However, seeing as Jason & Kelly just took a rocket from left field to #2, knocking BTD and Brad down to #3 and #4, I don't think it will happen. They'll take over the #1 on MB, as well as BB, and will stay there for the next few weeks. That'll also cause Taylor, Brad, Billy, and Thompson Square to have to settle for #2/#3 peaks (depending on how each one does). This is really surprising. (Arguably) two of the biggest names in Country, Taylor and Carrie, are both going to miss the #1 spot. Not only that, but this will be Arista's second big single to miss #1 (Brad). Wow. This was a really crazy day, and I think the Ellen performance really put them over the edge. Sorry, Taylor fans. :( I really wanted BTD to go to #1, too, but I also enjoy "Mean", so I hope (if it's the next single) it goes to the top. It's her Countriest single since "Tim McGraw", IMO, so I don't see why it won't.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Feb 23, 2011 19:02:22 GMT -5
While I could see Jason/Kelly's song blocking Taylor and Brad, I think its a bit over-the-top to think it would be block anything further. Billy may or may not make it to #1, but I don't think he'll be "blocked" from it by that song if he doesn't. And I expect Thompson Square to hit #1... I really doubt they would be a contender for the summit in 4 weeks time anyways as they just entered the Top 10. I'd love to see Jason/Kelly get to #1 for a week and then be knocked back to #2 the next week in favor of a week for Taylor -- since this song is so deserving -- then they can move back up and continue their reign.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 23, 2011 19:29:43 GMT -5
^I agree with your assertion that Taylor Swift NEEDS a #1 at this point in time (I thought I would never say that, but it is true!). Another #2 at this point in time would leave many to question if her grip on the country format may slip.
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Post by mattyboy on Feb 23, 2011 19:34:37 GMT -5
^I agree with your assertion that Taylor Swift NEEDS a #1 at this point in time (I thought I would never say that, but it is true!). Another #2 at this point in time would leave many to question if her grip on the country format may slip. I 100% disagree with this. This song was a hit. The only people who care if it's a #1 hit or a #2 hit are the chart followers. Country radio needs Taylor a lot more than Taylor needs them.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 23, 2011 20:01:51 GMT -5
^I agree with your assertion that Taylor Swift NEEDS a #1 at this point in time (I thought I would never say that, but it is true!). Another #2 at this point in time would leave many to question if her grip on the country format may slip. I 100% disagree with this. This song was a hit. The only people who care if it's a #1 hit or a #2 hit are the chart followers. Country radio needs Taylor a lot more than Taylor needs them. Agreed. I know that Taylor Swift will not lose any sleep over the fact that if Back To December peaks at #2, her career will be over (it won't). But, when you consider that the Speak Now CD sold over a million copies during its first week, you have to admit that Swift would be on a tear of having chart topping singles (she has only one #1 hit-on the adult contemporary chart with Mine (a #2 country hit)). Of course, that makes it a bonafide hit by anyone's standards. Does sales success necessarily translate to radio success? No, but if the format where she started from does not pick up the pace, you would have to wonder where her support will be coming from (I know she has done well on the pop and A.C. charts). When she releases her next CD (probably in 2012, given her pattern of releasing CDs in 2006, 2008, and 2010), where will her standing be in country music? In 2012, she will turn 23 (in December) and what kind of material will she be singing then? I would imagine more of the same, but it will be the kind of music that will leave country fans cold. After all, how many more celebrities will she date and end up writing songs about them? Are we, as country fans, getting a little tired of it? I think she dates them so she can get a song out of them. How many more times is she going to play the victim? I think with her being in her early 20s now, she should face reality and not look at the people she is associated with (minus family) as a way to make the quick buck. How many of her future beaus will look at her with skepticism? Let us hope that maturity (and lets face it, she has gone through a lot of that in a very public way) will show in her overall attitude about life and in her writing. If Fearless Part II or Speak Now Part II will be the subtitle of her next CD, you can bet the farm that the only ones buying her CD will be the pop fans she has been courting since Fearless came out. Country fans will see right through it and will not be supporting her like they did through her first three CDs. Also, another thought just came to me. When she does release her next CD, who will be the top artist in country music? Will it be someone who will claim 2011 as their breakthrough year (like Miranda Lambert did in 2010?). Will that artist be big enough to knock down Swift a peg or two? Who knows? We will have to wait for this year to be over and get 2012 here to find out. Country radio will certainly survive without Swift being its top artist.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2011 20:21:56 GMT -5
While I could see Jason/Kelly's song blocking Taylor and Brad, I think its a bit over-the-top to think it would be block anything further. Billy may or may not make it to #1, but I don't think he'll be "blocked" from it by that song if he doesn't. And I expect Thompson Square to hit #1... I really doubt they would be a contender for the summit in 4 weeks time anyways as they just entered the Top 10. I'd love to see Jason/Kelly get to #1 for a week and then be knocked back to #2 the next week in favor of a week for Taylor -- since this song is so deserving -- then they can move back up and continue their reign. But also note that they'll be moving way up within this next week/week and a half because Blake, Luke, and Chris Young are all above them, and they're going recurrent. I'd love to see TSquare hit #1 with their song, but I'm not sure it'll happen. DYWS is too strong. Anyways, back to Taylor. I think a #1 for Country isn't necessarily vital, but she's definitely overdue.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2011 20:32:25 GMT -5
Everyone forgets that "Mine" was a #1 hit on the Country Mediabase chart. Artists and record labels count that as a #1 hit.
I haven't had internet lately, so I'm only able to sneak on here and there (for now), but regardless of BTD's peak, it will in no way hurt Taylor. I think the majority of artists out there would gladly take 3 million + albums sold and a bunch of top 5 (but not quite #1) hits, rather than a string of #1 hits and less than 1 million in albums sold.
I don't know how Taylor's career will play out in country music or just in music in general, but she's already made a boatload of money.
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lyrichord
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Post by lyrichord on Feb 24, 2011 6:47:49 GMT -5
Team Taylor is dead serious about getting the number one this week (my prediction: they'll make on it MB but not BB), overnight update has her at #1 for the rolling 7 day chart. Could be a potentially interesting situation this week where Taylor leads in points, Brad leads in spins, and Jason leads in audience. Most exciting race to the top in a while.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Feb 24, 2011 10:55:04 GMT -5
I also don't think that her career will be harmed if this doesn't hit #1; she's clearly the format's #2 female vocalist, and easily among the format's top ten artists overall despite the worst-in-the-format 'burn rate' for most of her singles.
I wouldn't be surprised if Kenny Chesney reclaims his crown as the format's most played artist in 2011 after his-four year streak ended in 2010.
Miranda would appear to be next-in-line as it relates to becoming the format's next superstar after the five new members of the 'Class Of 2010' (Blake/Josh/Jason/Lady Antebellum/ZBB) joined the 'fraternity' last year.
2011 marks NINETEEN years and counting as the most-listened to music format out there, and second overall behind News-Talk, which has been on top since the summer of 2008.
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lyrichord
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Post by lyrichord on Feb 25, 2011 7:05:58 GMT -5
Taylor grabbed the spin lead from Brad today, still holding on to the points lead, and is #2 in audience behind Jason. It'll be interesting if she has both songs this era ascend from #5 to #1 in the span of one week on the mediabase chart (and #5 to #2 on the Billboard chart).
And there are four songs on the chart with over 5250 spins, though obviously Blake will finish lower on the published Sunday chart. Seems like country radio is playing their top hits a lot more since the new year. Last year there were a number of songs that made it to #1 without cracking 5000 spins but that would be only good for #5 on the current chart.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Feb 25, 2011 10:33:17 GMT -5
The advent of PPM (Portable People Meters) in most of the top 100 markets has plenty to do with that, although there's substantial disagreement within country radio regarding how many spins a song in 'power' rotation (5 or more spins per day) should get per day, and whether or not increasing those spins is good for the format or bad for the format.
However, survey after survey from contributors to both Lon Helton's & Phyllis Stark's standout newsletters (PDs/MDs/consultants), as well as an annual Arbitron survey, has consistently stated that repetition is a major complaint among country music listeners, and that's been the case for several years.
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slayZ
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Post by slayZ on Feb 25, 2011 16:12:11 GMT -5
"The Story Of Us" has been announced as the new Pop single going for ads on March 9th so we should find out soon if they're doing "Mean" on country or sending TSOU to country as well. BTD will most likely peak this week.
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Rhythm Nation
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Post by Rhythm Nation on Feb 27, 2011 8:24:28 GMT -5
This is no1 now right?
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Post by passionformusic on Feb 27, 2011 8:29:22 GMT -5
You mean Mediabase? We do not know yet. Will be published in the evening. It has a good chance. Billboard- 2-nd or 3-rd most likely.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2011 8:30:49 GMT -5
Yes. She beat Jason and Kelly by just under 300 points. She has the highest spin count and audience impressions. In my opinion, this is by far one of her stronger singles and rightfully deserves it. I hope she gets the billboard #1 as well.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2011 8:33:23 GMT -5
I'm happy this got to #1. It had quite the struggle in the end, but I'm glad it resulted well.
This is my favorite #1 by her, ever.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2011 12:38:17 GMT -5
Yes. She beat Jason and Kelly by just under 300 points. She has the highest spin count and audience impressions. In my opinion, this is by far one of her stronger singles and rightfully deserves it. I hope she gets the billboard #1 as well. I would like to see her get the Billboard #1 as well, but it's not going to happen. Highly unlikely, at least. Jason & Kelly will most likely wrap up the BB #1 this weekend, and I don't see them falling next week. And, even if they did, this weekend is likely the peak for "Back To December". Still, glad to see she will get #1 on Mediabase. The published chart will confirm it--she will be #1.
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on Feb 27, 2011 12:55:01 GMT -5
How is the BB chart measured? If she's #1 in spins, audience and points how could she not be #1 on BB? (Not saying she is, but if someone could explain how she won't be it'd be appreciated).
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kw9461
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Post by kw9461 on Feb 27, 2011 13:00:27 GMT -5
How is the BB chart measured? If she's #1 in spins, audience and points how could she not be #1 on BB? (Not saying she is, but if someone could explain how she won't be it'd be appreciated). You're thinking of Mediabase, where she is currently #1. Billboard figures their chart solely on audience, and there's very little chance she can catch Aldean by tomorrow (she was trailing Aldean by a much wider margin on BB than MB last week). There's actually a good chance she may end up #3 on BB (an oddity we haven't had in a while).
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Feb 27, 2011 13:15:47 GMT -5
How is the BB chart measured? If she's #1 in spins, audience and points how could she not be #1 on BB? (Not saying she is, but if someone could explain how she won't be it'd be appreciated). You're thinking of Mediabase, where she is currently #1. Billboard figures their chart solely on audience, and there's very little chance she can catch Aldean by tomorrow (she was trailing Aldean by a much wider margin on BB than MB last week). There's actually a good chance she may end up #3 on BB (an oddity we haven't had in a while). Correct. Taylor, my Billboard Chart Projection shows this well. Taylor's Billboard to Mediabase ratio over the last 4 weeks have been between 0.850 and 0.858, while Jason's has been between 0.880 and 0.901. Based on these trends, it can be assumed Jason will still lead Taylor on Billboard next week.
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Feb 27, 2011 13:23:54 GMT -5
So another Swift song appears to be driving on fumes and then sees a crazy surge for a week to leapfrog up from around 5 to 1 on Mediabase passing other songs that clearly had more momentum. And I'm sure the song will then freefall. Obviously, chart manipulation cannot be avoided but I wonder if Mediabase will ever prove to be as flexible as Billboard in adjusting its charting methodology so as to make it more difficult.
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Post by passionformusic on Feb 27, 2011 14:00:05 GMT -5
So another Swift song appears to be driving on fumes and then sees a crazy surge for a week to leapfrog up from around 5 to 1 on Mediabase passing other songs that clearly had more momentum. And I'm sure the song will then freefall. Obviously, chart manipulation cannot be avoided but I wonder if Mediabase will ever prove to be as flexible as Billboard in adjusting its charting methodology so as to make it more difficult. Italians care about country? Happy for Taylor! Love that song! It deserves to get nr1, even if its only on Mediabase, and for a week. :)
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Post by tobykeithfan2324 on Feb 27, 2011 14:08:17 GMT -5
Taylor Doesn't Deserve a #1, Atleast not with this lame song.
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on Feb 27, 2011 14:22:52 GMT -5
You're thinking of Mediabase, where she is currently #1. Billboard figures their chart solely on audience, and there's very little chance she can catch Aldean by tomorrow (she was trailing Aldean by a much wider margin on BB than MB last week). There's actually a good chance she may end up #3 on BB (an oddity we haven't had in a while). Correct. Taylor, my Billboard Chart Projection shows this well. Taylor's Billboard to Mediabase ratio over the last 4 weeks have been between 0.850 and 0.858, while Jason's has been between 0.880 and 0.901. Based on these trends, it can be assumed Jason will still lead Taylor on Billboard next week. Thanks to both of you for the explanation!
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Post by kt1990 on Feb 27, 2011 14:32:56 GMT -5
Taylor Doesn't Deserve a #1, Atleast not with this lame song. Troll harder.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2011 15:55:35 GMT -5
So another Swift song appears to be driving on fumes and then sees a crazy surge for a week to leapfrog up from around 5 to 1 on Mediabase passing other songs that clearly had more momentum. And I'm sure the song will then freefall. Obviously, chart manipulation cannot be avoided but I wonder if Mediabase will ever prove to be as flexible as Billboard in adjusting its charting methodology so as to make it more difficult. I don't know that I'd necessarily say she was going on fumes this time around, but that's definitely arguable. Sure, she got stuck at #7 for a couple weeks, but I think she was adding over 1 million audience, usually much more, in every week. It just so happens that she's face to face with one of the biggest blockbuster hits recently (Don't You Wanna Stay) and a lead single/country music anthem from Brad Paisley that of course radio loves as well. There's always going to be competition, but I think if she had been dealing with Luke Bryan and Chris Young, maybe (meaning no disrespect to them--love them and their songs, I'm just saying that they're not as big of stars as Aldean and Paisley), she would've been able to sail toward the top more smoothly and not need this big push. I think Big Machine wants to push her, though, since this song is pretty solid, and being received well...it's just up against some tough competition. But, that's the way it goes sometimes. I'm glad she'll get the MB #1, but I do agree that MB should "toughen" up their chart a bit, since it seems easier to get to #1 there compared to Billboard (which I find more reliable, due to its audience-only chart).
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 27, 2011 16:03:47 GMT -5
If Back To December does peak at #2, Taylor Swift will be the 53rd artist to have at least four bridesmaid hits!
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