Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Jul 27, 2011 17:08:08 GMT -5
Eric Church On Course For First No. 1 Album on Billboard 200, Kelly Rowland Aiming for No. 2 July 27, 2011 By Keith Caulfield ( keith_caulfield), Los Angele It's looking like we're going to get some church up in the No. 1 slot on the Billboard 200 albums chart next week. Eric Church, that is. Industry sources project that the country singer's new album, "Chief," could sell as many as 120,000 to 130,000 copies by week's end on Sunday, July 31. It's the 34-year old artist's third studio album and his first since 2009's "Carolina." That effort debuted and peaked at No. 17 on the chart -- with 31,000 sold in its first week according to Nielsen SoundScan. However, "Carolina" was in it for the long haul, and has sold 492,000 in the U.S. thus far. The set is a great example of sustained sales as in its 122 weeks in release, it has sold at least more than 2,000 copies in every frame (save for six). Clearly, all of those fans he built up over the past few years are turning out to pick up his new Capitol Nashville release this week. "Chief" is led by the single "Homeboy," which has so far peaked at No. 13 on the Country Songs chart and sold 551,000 downloads. In other big debut news, look for Kelly Rowland's third album "Here I Am," to claim her highest charting album yet, as it may start in the No. 2 slot. Sources say the set, her first for Universal Republic, could sell perhaps 75,000. She's currently enjoying chart success with the album's single "Motivation" (featuring Lil Wayne), which spent seven weeks at No. 1 on R&B/Hip-Hop Songs. Rowland's last album, "Ms. Kelly," released way back in 2007 on Music World/Columbia, launched at No. 6 with 82,000. This week's No. 1, Adele's "21," will perhaps slip to No. 3, while the late Amy Winehouse's "Back to Black" could see another week in the top 10.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2011 18:27:38 GMT -5
I'm a huge country fan...I know nothing about CHR or other formats, really...and I'm STUNNED at Eric Church's numbers. He's really tapped into the Jason Aldean fanbase, while also having legions of his own fans. See the most recent post by LispingHibiscus...he basically describes Church perfectly.
Brad Paisley, one of country's biggest stars for over a decade, opened with 153k back in April, which is really solid in this day in age. And I stand by my position saying that Blake Shelton's 116k debut was big as well. But Eric posting 120-140k? Just WOW.
I was guessing 60-80k max, about the same amount that Chris Young and Justin Moore recently opened with. Chris had a #1 single, "Tomorrow", lead to sales of 73k for his album "Neon". And Justin's lead single "If Heaven Wasn't So Far Away", also a recent #1, spurred his album sales to around 65k. For up-and-coming country stars, that's very good.
Church, meanwhile, has only cracked the top 10 twice on the country airplay chart...and barely. He peaked at #10 with "Love Your Love The Most" in late 2009, and then also hit #10 in May of last year with "Hell On The Heart". His digital single sales have been very strong, but still, I did not expect him to hit 6 figure opening week sales, let alone 120-140k...
I like him though so I'm thrilled to see such high numbers!
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Sir Benji
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Post by Sir Benji on Jul 27, 2011 18:32:23 GMT -5
Yeah Kelly's sales aren't surprising at all. Like I said earlier, her team is the pits. I barely even knew her album came out this week and I'm on Pulse. The everyday person wouldn't know and chances are if they did, Kelly is not established enough to really have people that excited or rush out to buy her album anyway. I think that's why Kelly said she, the label and her team weren't going to make a big deal out of first week sales.
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Oprah
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Post by Oprah on Jul 27, 2011 19:06:26 GMT -5
Yeah Kelly's sales aren't surprising at all. Like I said earlier, her team is the pits. I barely even knew her album came out this week and I'm on Pulse. The everyday person wouldn't know and chances are if they did, Kelly is not established enough to really have people that excited or rush out to buy her album anyway. I think that's why Kelly said she, the label and her team weren't going to make a big deal out of first week sales. Yeeeeah they still need to do enough promotion first week so that people at least know the album's out or the era's basically DoA. I was expecting numbers around this, I just wasn't expecting some random country singer to come out of nowhere and sell that much. She may have snagged the top spot if it had been released last week.
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forg
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Post by forg on Jul 27, 2011 19:50:50 GMT -5
Glad that the #1 album will sell 100K+, after that what album are we expecting? I hope Adele continues its streak of never dropping below #3
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Post by slicknickshady on Jul 27, 2011 20:08:33 GMT -5
Glad to see another Capitol Nashville album debut #1. Gives me hope for Jennette Mccurdy's debut album when it comes out! If they can only pick the right single.
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pnobelysk
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Post by pnobelysk on Jul 27, 2011 20:09:27 GMT -5
Yeah, where is Amy Winehouse predicted at? "Billboard estimates that in the current week, fans will download about 65,000 albums and 250,000 songs.
Moreover, sources say that brick and mortar retail accounts have ordered about 60,000 CD copies of her albums so far this week, with Universal Music Group Distribution scrambling to fulfill those orders. Shipments should begin hitting accounts on Friday and continue through Saturday and Monday, sources say. All new orders are expected to be filled by next Tuesday (Aug. 2), sources add." 65k for her albums combined. Back to black will be likley > 50k of that total. I see Frank and her b sides ep getting new peaks as well
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2011 22:41:07 GMT -5
Yes. "Motivation" was bigger than "Like This",so I at least expected 90-100k. Ms. Kelly was released four years ago, though, and it was coming off Simply Deep, which had a moderate hit single and went gold. A decent previous era will set you up nicely for a new album, but a flop era more often than not derails the initial momentum for subsequent ones, as people stop rooting/checking for the singer in question. Combine that with the fact that the sales climate in general is still quite a bit less than it was in 2007. Then also keep in mind that Motivation just got sent to pop, and urban music has its loyalists but the genre can't really be relied on for a consistent string of big openers the way that country clearly can. I was holding out hope that she could get 90-100k, but I wasn't expecting it either...I had a doomsday prediction of 50k at one point, so I'm at peace with Kelly's prediction. I know she doesn't have a huge devoted fanbase, but 70-75k is not too far removed from her previous debuts, so that's actually a pretty good sign that she does have a solid, if not large, cult following; at least she isn't losing her main support. For anyone else though they are probably not going to be convinced to buy into her until she is two, three, or even four hit singles into the project. So I think she and the label were right not to be too stressed about it* because honestly a huge all-at-once roll out would not have brought in enough extra sales to warrant the cost. (*assuming that they DO have some real promotion lined up for the rest of the era) As for this Eric guy I'll echo everyone else's 'who?' sentiments, lol. In seriousness though, congrats to him. Amy's showing is lower than it should be because a) most stores didn't have any of her cds in stock when news broke, and they're still rushing to press and ship some out; and b) news broke on a weekend, so her sales are going to be split over two sales weeks. I would have liked her to jump to #1 as one final send-off, but it would have just been a cherry on the top of a bittersweet cake. She's received more than her share of musical recognition now.
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Jul 27, 2011 23:15:05 GMT -5
So Kelly is a shoo-in for #2?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2011 0:53:52 GMT -5
It doesn't look like a shoo-in yet, but there's a good chance. Hits only says she "may" debut at #2, which probably means that typically consistent Adele is projected to do somewhere between 65 and 75k, close enough to give Kelly some competition. Amy may trend upward, but it's unlikely she'll trend that high.
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d.t.m
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Post by d.t.m on Jul 28, 2011 4:17:10 GMT -5
Seems like in today's climate, if you don't scan near 100k first week, going gold is a huge uphill battle.
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worldwide
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Post by worldwide on Jul 28, 2011 5:27:50 GMT -5
So Kelly is a shoo-in for #2? She is a shoo-in for geting fired from her label.
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Jul 28, 2011 21:21:26 GMT -5
As expected, Eric Church scores his first #1 next week by a very wide margin. Adele remains in the Top 3 for her 23rd consecutive week. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:
*Eric Church (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 130-140k Adele (XL/Columbia) 80-85k *Kelly Rowland (Universal Republic) 70-75k Jason Aldean (Broken Bow) 40-45k Kidz Bop Kids (Razor & Tie) 40-45k Beyonce (Columbia) 40-45k Blake Shelton (Warner Bros. Nashville) 30-35k Amy Winehouse (Universal Republic) 30-35k *Joss Stone (Stone'd/Surfdog) 27-30k Bad Meets Evil (Shady/Interscope) 25-28k 3 Doors Down (Universal Republic) 24-27k Jackie Evancho (Columbia) 21-24k Selena Gomez & the Scene (Hollywood) 21-24k Lady Gaga (Interscope) 21-24k DJ Khaled (Universal Republic) 21-24 *Falling In Reverse (Epitaph) 21-24k
* Debuts (7/28p)
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Jul 28, 2011 21:22:49 GMT -5
Joss Stone has a top ten album with literally no airplay. Impressive. Shows what a loyal fanbase she's maintained for almost a decade.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Jul 28, 2011 21:29:46 GMT -5
Yeah I think her last album did around 30k its opening week too. Nothing great but respectable considering her lack of commercial play/promo these days.
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Oprah
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Post by Oprah on Jul 28, 2011 21:39:38 GMT -5
Well, that's going to be Kelly's highest peaking album by a good margin. It'd be kewl if Bey landed at #4 and they were back to back.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jul 28, 2011 21:42:22 GMT -5
That's it for Back to Black? I thought Billboard was predicting 60K or so?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2011 21:43:13 GMT -5
Small drop for Bey! Holding up better than predicted...600k in 2/3 weeks. And wow at Jason Aldean, he is really selling well. Nice to see Kelly debut top 3, and amazing for Adele <3
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neally
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Post by neally on Jul 28, 2011 22:06:56 GMT -5
Wow @:
1. Adele's and Jason Aldean's MONSTER consistency ! 2. Lady Gaga's possible 20% drop- this may be buffered by this week's television promotion.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2011 22:37:39 GMT -5
That's it for Back to Black? I thought Billboard was predicting 60K or so? It seems logical that week 2 is roughly the same as week 1 Week 1 was 2 days long as the news just broke. Early week 2 is where most of the sales would come as the news of the death is still fresh. As week 2 progresses the news is not fresh anymore and the demand for Back to Black would subside with each day removed from her death. In week 3, we won't even be discussing this
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2011 22:59:29 GMT -5
That's it for Back to Black? I thought Billboard was predicting 60K or so? Yeah, I thought that was odd too, but Hits was also 15k off from Billboard's final numbers in this week's chart. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a similar discrepancy next week. Damn Adele! Every time it seems like she's dropping a little bit she bounces right back up. Crazy.
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pnobelysk
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Post by pnobelysk on Jul 28, 2011 23:23:03 GMT -5
^billboard actually estimated about 60-65k of amy's albums combined this week. BTB still seems a bit low with 30k but frank will prbly have 9kish and her b sides another 4k ish
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I Wish
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Post by I Wish on Jul 29, 2011 0:59:48 GMT -5
Selena suffers an expected bigger drop than normal because of her album going back to regular price at Target.
Here's hoping Blake stabilizes soon.
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Jul 29, 2011 1:30:17 GMT -5
Good respectable numbers for Kelly.
However if she wants to see her album go Gold, it will have to match to the letter what Keri's did back in 09'.
I mean, a respectable hit (Motivation being Keri's TMO) followed by a massive one (a single that matched Keri's KYD).
2c.
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Jul 29, 2011 7:42:39 GMT -5
Beyoncé is holding up great
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colson
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Post by colson on Jul 29, 2011 7:53:17 GMT -5
So Kelly is a shoo-in for #2? She is a shoo-in for geting fired from her label. Ouch!!lol
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spongebob
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Post by spongebob on Jul 29, 2011 8:52:52 GMT -5
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jul 29, 2011 9:45:38 GMT -5
That's it for Back to Black? I thought Billboard was predicting 60K or so? It seems logical that week 2 is roughly the same as week 1 Week 1 was 2 days long as the news just broke. Early week 2 is where most of the sales would come as the news of the death is still fresh. As week 2 progresses the news is not fresh anymore and the demand for Back to Black would subside with each day removed from her death. In week 3, we won't even be discussing this 100% correct, 2m.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Jul 29, 2011 10:47:54 GMT -5
I can see Back to Black lingering on the chart for a while though, even if it's just the lower end. It was already selling 1k per week prior to her death so consistently shifting 3k a week for awhile won't be that difficult, especially if we get that posthumous album sometime later this year.
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Post by ListenToItTwice on Jul 29, 2011 11:00:50 GMT -5
Adele (XL/Columbia) 80-85k excellent increase owed to the SYTYCD performance of Set Fire to the Rain, increased airplay for Someone Like You, and VMA nods and performance announcement
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