HITS: 8/1-8/2: Eric Church #1 - 145K

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

Country Star Will Debut with 130-140k in First-Week Sales, Kelly Rowland Next

July 27, 2011

Who is Eric Church and what is he doing with first-week sales of 130-140k?

The North Carolina-born country singer-songwriter’s third Capitol Nashville album, Chief, will debut on next week’s chart with that amount, which will make him #1 on the HITS sales chart.

Church’s two previous albums, 2006’s Sinners Like Me and 2009’s Carolina, both went Top 10 Country, while the latter reached #17 on the sales chart.

That’s based on one-day sales reports from those music retailers who haven’t paved paradise to put up a parking lot.

Universal Republic former Destiny’s Child member Kelly Rowland's Here I Am, the follow-up to 2007’s Ms. Kelly, is looking at first-week sales in the 70-75k range.

Stone’d/Surfdog U.K. soul stirrer Joss Stone’s fifth album, LP1, her first since splitting EMI Music, should do between 25-28k.

Epitaph’s Falling In Reverse is the new band from former Escape The Fate vocalist Ronnie Radke, with their debut, The Drug in Me is You, looking to sell between 17-20k

The market was flat vs. last week, up 6% vs. same week last year and still up 1% year to date, while TEA (track equivalent album) sales are up 4% year to date. That’s right, folks, flat is the new up.

[Oprah]

Urgh.

[NeRD]

Ughhh, really wanted that #1.

[Choco]

That's the best debut Kelly Rowland has ever had outside of Destiny's Child?

[Oprah]

Jul 27, 2011 14:31:45 GMT -5 Choco said:

That's the best debut Kelly Rowland has ever had outside of Destiny's Child?

It's actually going to be her lowest if it doesn't trend higher.

[Choco]

Oh, didn't know. How much did her previous albums debut to?

[tsw2008]

Eric who ? and I would say that's a pretty strong opening for Kelly, it's not like she has a smash single or anything.

[Peaches. [Ch, r. is]]

Jul 27, 2011 14:33:51 GMT -5 Choco said:

Oh, didn't know. How much did her previous albums debut to?

~77k in Fall 2002
~83k in June 2007

[Oprah]

Jul 27, 2011 14:36:40 GMT -5 tsw2008 said:

Eric who ? and I would say that's a pretty strong opening for Kelly, it's not like she has a smash single or anything.

Yes, she does. When are people going to realize there's more to radio than CHR?

[F.A.M.O.U.S.]

Jul 27, 2011 14:36:40 GMT -5 tsw2008 said:

Eric who ? and I would say that's a pretty strong opening for Kelly, it's not like she has a smash single or anything.

??? Motivation is huge....very disappointed for Kelly,seems like there is nothing she can do to prove people she can stand on her own

[Honeymoon]

I have a feeling this album will be a bit more consistent for her. Miss Kelly opened fairly decent but had nowhere near the hit Here I Am does with "Motivation" and now that it's crossing over at pop I wouldn't be that surprised if this album gets a Gold certification somewhere down the line.

[HolidayGuy]

"Motivation" just crossed over to pop, though, so the impact from that isn't big as of yet. Nonetheless, a gold cert may be a challenge, with such a low-key opening number.

[Live Your Life]

People really expected more for "Here I Am?"

[Wave.]

Yes. "Motivation" was bigger than "Like This",so I at least expected 90-100k.

[I Wish]

Who is Eric Church and what is he doing with first-week sales of 130-140k?

This is exactly what I was going to ask. lol Where are the Blake Shelton fans that attacked me for expecting more from him two weeks ago?

I actually find Kelly's predictions in line with what I was expecting. "Motivation" may be a hit, but there was no way that single alone would guarantee over 100k.

[#LisaRinna]

I expected 95-100k at least for Kelly :-\

[singingsparrow]

Even I'm somewhat shocked by Church's opening numbers, and I knew he would debut higher than the mere 55-60K some had initially tossed out.

I knew he would debut robustly, though, because unlike more established artists like Blake Shelton, Eric Church has a feverish cult following based heavily out of word-of-mouth rather than major radio support. He draws massive concert crowds and has a powerful well-tuned grassroots appeal.

Still, numbers like these are mind-blowing, considering Jason Aldean's current release bowed with 193K, and that also came on the cusp of the holiday shopping season. And unlike Church, Aldean actually has had a major radio presence these past three years.

Church's commercial stature is going to skyrocket within the next eighteen months. He's going to get his first two major Country radio hits with "Drink In My Hand" and "Springsteen", with "Creepin'" also a possible third. And with figures like these, his first Platinum certification is very likely.

Namaste,
lisping HIBISCUS

[I Wish]

Jul 27, 2011 15:24:31 GMT -5 @singingsparrow said:

Even I'm somewhat shocked by Church's opening numbers, and I knew he would debut higher than the mere 55-60K some had initially tossed out.

I knew he would debut robustly, though, because unlike more established artists like Blake Shelton, Eric Church has a feverish cult following based heavily out of word-of-mouth rather than major radio support. He draws massive concert crowds and has a powerful well-tuned grassroots appeal.

Still, numbers like these are mind-blowing, considering Jason Aldean's current release bowed with 193K, and that also came on the cusp of the holiday shopping season. And unlike Church, Aldean actually has had a major radio presence these past three years.

Church's commercial stature is going to skyrocket within the next eighteen months. He's going to get his first two major Country radio hits with "Drink In My Hand" and "Springsteen", with "Creepin'" also a possible third. And with figures like these, his first Platinum certification is very likely.

Namaste,
lisping HIBISCUS

I can already see him being tapped to perform on the American Music Awards as their token country act.

[falkos]

i think Back To Black would be No-1

[livelikedying111]

Kelly herself said that "it's not all about the first week" as to why the prmo schedule is so lame (I don't know what it is, that's a part of the problem), hinting that this time it's gonna be about longetivity. So here's hoping that strategy works.

[Au$tin]

Jul 27, 2011 14:55:01 GMT -5 Live Your Life said:

People really expected more for "Here I Am?"

TBH, I predicted less...

[Sir Benji]

That range is around what i expected Kelly to do. She was never going to do 100K without promo so I'm having a hard time understanding why people are surprised. "Motivation" is a big hit but not everyone likes it and people rarely buy albums based off hearing one song.

[kingofpain]

Yeah, where is Amy Winehouse predicted at?

[Deleted]

Probably won't get anything until tomorrow night, the first post is usually just for debuts

If Eric Church is predicted at #1 though, Amy Winehouse won't be

[jgizzle89]

i'm guessing 50k for amy.

[Minor Scratch]

That is huge for Eric Church. That debut shows the how strong the Country buying market actually is right now.

[Deleted]

Wow at Eric Church's projection! Good for him. Not bad for Kelly either.

[jgizzle89]

Jul 27, 2011 15:42:16 GMT -5 Sir Benji said:

That range is around what i expected Kelly to do. She was never going to do 100K without promo so I'm having a hard time understanding why people are surprised. "Motivation" is a big hit but not everyone likes it and people rarely buy albums based off hearing one song.

don't know about that last line. as long as it's an artist with a fanbase/strong history, people will usually buy their stuff. look at beyonce's 1st week sales...

[Oprah]

Jul 27, 2011 16:34:08 GMT -5 jgizzle89 said:

Jul 27, 2011 15:42:16 GMT -5 Sir Benji said:

That range is around what i expected Kelly to do. She was never going to do 100K without promo so I'm having a hard time understanding why people are surprised. "Motivation" is a big hit but not everyone likes it and people rarely buy albums based off hearing one song.

don't know about that last line. as long as it's an artist with a fanbase/strong history, people will usually buy their stuff. look at beyonce's 1st week sales...

Kelly doesn't have much of a fanbase and certainly doesn't have a strong history.

[Deleted]

Yeah Kelly's sales aren't surprising at all. Like I said earlier, her team is the pits. I barely even knew her album came out this week and I'm on Pulse. The everyday person wouldn't know and chances are if they did, Kelly is not established enough to really have people that excited or rush out to buy her album anyway.