Billboard Hot 100: 8/20/11

[Sir LOVE IX]

^ I can't at Flopdex :(

you are combining two versions of Katy's LFN while you use only one version of Lighters and PRA at your comparison.



so when is the video for lighters coming?

[Deleted]

I'm biased. I didn't notice the second version of Lighters but Katy is still ahead by 4-5%.

[Sir LOVE IX]

Aug 9, 2011 14:41:47 GMT -5 Codex said:

I'm biased. I didn't notice the second version of Lighters but Katy is still ahead by 4-5%.

You better lose yourself in the music, the moment
You own it, you better never let it go
You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow
This opportunity comes once in a lifetime yo x2

[badrobot]

It'll be a close race but I think Katy will manage it.

Anyone have a clue about streaming? I'd guess LFN is doing well on that since the video is so popular, but I wouldn't be surprised if PRA is outdoing her there.

[Deleted]

Aug 9, 2011 13:58:35 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Aug 9, 2011 13:11:27 GMT -5 Mike said:

I noticed "Remind Me" has a total audience of about 44 million. However, on the country chart it's only listed with about 34 million. Where is the other 10 coming from? ???

There's a crap load more country stations on the overall panel than the published panel.

Correct you are. If you look at, say, Lady A's "Just A Kiss" and ZBB's "Knee Deep", both are in the 50-55 million range...with both 'only' in the 39 million range on the country chart.

[slw84]

Aug 9, 2011 3:19:17 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

Aug 8, 2011 11:45:49 GMT -5 slw84 said:

Great points...
I know back in the mid 2000s there was a website that tracked recurrent play...does anyone know where...if so can anyone provide the link? Thanks.

I don't know of one that is currently active, other than Mediabase's regular top 40 recurrents and golds. Sorry

Thanks.

[David]

If she stays at #7 all week on iTunes, then the original will sell about 115k. If the remix stays around the 20's most of the week, it should sell maybe 55k. That's being generous though. I see it dropping in a few days and end up adding on about 40-45k. So that would be around 165k for both combined. Doesn't look like it's doing much. Even if it gets that 55k from the remix, that would be 170k. With it's AI being around 145 mill by the end of the week, that's about 315 chart points. Not including streaming obviously.

Moves Like Jagger looks to outsell LFN by about 60-70k. Meaning their sales would be around 235k. Seeing as how it won't get the needed AI by next week, it shouldn't be a threat to LFN.

Now, Lighters is looking to have around 90mill AI by the end of the week. The video is supposedly premiering this week, which could generate some sales for it. Right now it looks to sell about as much as LFN, assuming there's no big video effect.

Drake's "Headlines" is flying up iTunes, but it only has 10mill AI, and I don't see it selling 300k. Although, crazier shit has happened.

So looks like Lighters needs to sell over 210k, while MLJ needs to sell over 270k.

[slw84]

Aug 9, 2011 19:52:37 GMT -5 David said:

If she stays at #7 all week on iTunes, then the original will sell about 115k. If the remix stays around the 20's most of the week, it should sell maybe 55k. That's being generous though. I see it dropping in a few days and end up adding on about 40-45k. So that would be around 165k for both combined. Doesn't look like it's doing much. Even if it gets that 55k from the remix, that would be 170k. With it's AI being around 145 mill by the end of the week, that's about 315 chart points. Not including streaming obviously.

Moves Like Jagger looks to outsell LFN by about 60-70k. Meaning their sales would be around 235k. Seeing as how it won't get the needed AI by next week, it shouldn't be a threat to LFN.

Now, Lighters is looking to have around 90mill AI by the end of the week. The video is supposedly premiering this week, which could generate some sales for it. Right now it looks to sell about as much as LFN, assuming there's no big video effect.

Drake's "Headlines" is flying up iTunes, but it only has 10mill AI, and I don't see it selling 300k. Although, crazier s**t has happened.

So looks like Lighters needs to sell over 210k, while MLJ needs to sell over 270k.

What were the sales for Katy, MLJ, Lighters and LMFAO?

[popstop]

Aug 9, 2011 19:52:37 GMT -5 David said:

If she stays at #7 all week on iTunes, then the original will sell about 115k. If the remix stays around the 20's most of the week, it should sell maybe 55k. That's being generous though. I see it dropping in a few days and end up adding on about 40-45k. So that would be around 165k for both combined. Doesn't look like it's doing much. Even if it gets that 55k from the remix, that would be 170k. With it's AI being around 145 mill by the end of the week, that's about 315 chart points. Not including streaming obviously.

Moves Like Jagger looks to outsell LFN by about 60-70k. Meaning their sales would be around 235k. Seeing as how it won't get the needed AI by next week, it shouldn't be a threat to LFN.

Now, Lighters is looking to have around 90mill AI by the end of the week. The video is supposedly premiering this week, which could generate some sales for it. Right now it looks to sell about as much as LFN, assuming there's no big video effect.

Drake's "Headlines" is flying up iTunes, but it only has 10mill AI, and I don't see it selling 300k. Although, crazier s**t has happened.

So looks like Lighters needs to sell over 210k, while MLJ needs to sell over 270k.

Well, if this speculation proves accurate, then the remix will have done its job, nabbing enough sales to hold the up-and-coming songs at bay. It doesn't have to be phenomenal sales, just enough to get the #1.

[David]

I forgot to add that PRA only needs to outsell LFN by about 10k. Easy enough. Especially if the remix starts plummeting in a day or 2.

[LegendaryLover]

I'll wait for the sales for this week to release today and predict the charts for next week.

So far, it looks like LMFAO will block Katy, even with the remix. Lighters will be close, but still around 50 chart points away. Moves Like Jagger won't be a huge threat unless their sales are like 250K.

[nighttime]

I guess it all comes down to whether or not consumers are aware that the remix is out there and for 69 cents OR if people just aren't interested regardless. The later would have it falling down the charts in the next few days taking it out of the running. At this point though I think it's still too early to rule out the complete awareness of it.

[slicknickshady]

Good!

10. BAD MEETS EVIL - Lighters f/Bruno Mars: 73.990 (+ 2.997) ▲

EVANESCENCE - What You Want: 0.059

[Enigma.]

One reason why the remix is not doing as well as expected could be that the song itself is pretty old, out for a year already.

[Lozzy]

8/10 airplay updates:

This is the Wednesday update, meaning that the BDS version of this is what will count towards the 8/20 Hot 100 chart.

1. KATY PERRY - Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F.): 147.400 (- 0.083)
2. LMFAO - Party Rock Anthem: 140.392 (- 0.286)
3. NICKI MINAJ - Super Bass: 123.818 (- 1.372)
4. PITBULL - Give Me Everything f/Ne-Yo: 119.423 (- 1.842)
5. LIL WAYNE - How To Love: 112.824 (+ 0.187)
6. ADELE - Rolling In The Deep: 108.945 (- 1.795)
7. LADY GAGA - The Edge Of Glory: 94.049 (- 1.482)
8. BRITNEY SPEARS - I Wanna Go: 88.828 (+ 2.067)
9. ONEREPUBLIC - Good Life: 86.900 (+ 0.890)
10. BAD MEETS EVIL - Lighters f/Bruno Mars: 76.555 (+ 2.565)
.
FILA
.
11. DJ KHALED - I'm On One f/Drake, Rick Ross: 72.151 (- 0.041)
12. HOT CHELLE RAE - Tonight Tonight: 70.155 (+ 0.419)
13. KELLY ROWLAND - Motivation f/Lil Wayne: 67.831 (- 0.853)
14. CHRIS BROWN - She Ain't You: 60.296 (- 0.244)
15. THE BAND PERRY - If I Die Young: 58.663 (+ 1.241) ▲
16. BLACK EYED PEAS - Just Can't Get Enough: 58.658 (- 0.883) ▼
17. BEYONCE - Best Thing I Never Had: 57.158 (+ 0.126)
18. LADY ANTEBELLUM - Just A Kiss: 55.350 (+ 0.073)
19. ZAC BROWN BAND - Knee Deep f/Jimmy Buffett: 52.369 (- 0.509)
20. KATY PERRY - E.T.: 51.734 (- 0.923)
.
OUTRAS
.
BIG SEAN - My Last f/Chris Brown: 49.791 (- 0.734)
DIERKS BENTLEY - Am I The Only One: 48.413 (- 0.227)
LUKE BRYAN - Country Girl (Shake It For Me): 46.511 (+ 0.427)
LUPE FIASCO - Out Of My Head f/Trey Songz: 45.542 (+ 0.025)
BRAD PAISLEY/CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Remind Me: 45.341 (+ 0.356)
FOSTER THE PEOPLE - Pumped Up Kicks: 35.926 (+ 1.286)
MAROON 5 F/CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Moves Like Jagger: 35.627 (+ 1.112)
DAVID GUETTA/FLO RIDA/NICKI M. - Where Them Girls At: 32.778 (+ 0.203)
COLDPLAY - Every Teardrop Is A Waterfall: 32.310 (- 0.051)
RIHANNA - Cheers (Drink To That): 30.221 (+ 1.975)
JAY Z & KANYE WEST - Otis: 29.364 (+ 0.367)
PITBULL - Rain Over Me: 27.058 (+ 0.374)
COBRA STARSHIP - You Make Me Feel... f/Sabi: 24.903 (+ 0.553)
JENNIFER LOPEZ - I'm Into You f/Lil Wayne: 24.259 (+ 0.061)
RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS - Adventures Of Rain Dance...: 19.306 (+ 0.248)
ALEXANDRA STAN - Mr. Saxobeat: 14.894 (+ 0.497)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Sparks Fly: 14.240 (+ 0.313)
BLACK EYED PEAS - Don't Stop The Party: 12.656 (- 0.224)
DRAKE - Headlines: 11.087 (+ 0.965)
ADELE - Someone Like You: 11.066 (+ 0.424)
AVRIL LAVIGNE - Smile: 8.834 (+ 0.040)
BLINK 182 - Up All Night: 6.313 (- 0.072)
LADY GAGA - You And I: 4.521 (+ 0.568)
EVANESCENCE - What You Want: 0.484 (+ 0.425)

[felipe]

Is Otis stalling?

[areyoureadytojump]

www.billboard.com/#/news/adele-s-21-notches-most-weeks-at-no-1-since-1005309992.story

Over on the Digital Songs chart, LMFAO's "Party Rock Anthem" is still No. 1, selling 185,000 (down 8%) and Bad Meets Evil's "Lighters" (featuring Bruno Mars) is steady at No. 2 (164,000; down less than 1%). Making a big move is Maroon 5's "Moves Like Jagger" (featuring Christina Aguilera), which dances 17-3 with 159,000 (up 124%). The band performed the song on both "America's Got Talent" and the "Today" show last week.

Nicki Minaj's "Super Bass" holds at No. 4 (140,000; down 3%), Katy Perry's "Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F.)" falls 3-5 (136,000; down 10%) and Foster the People's "Pumped Up Kicks" runs 13-6 with 134,000 (up 52%). Lil Wayne's "How to Love" moves 6-7 (125,000; down 5%), Hot Chelle Rae's "Tonight Tonight" tumbles 5-8 (123,000; down 8%) and Britney Spears' "I Wanna Go" goes 7-9 (109,000; down 6%). Rounding out the top 10 is Pitbull's "Give Me Everything," slipping 8-10 with 105,000 (down 8%).

Digital track sales this past week totaled 23.18 million downloads, down 1% compared to last week (23.33 million) and up 12% stacked next to the comparable week of 2010 (20.72 million). Year to date track sales are at 777.53 million, up 11% compared to the same total at this point last year (701.98 million).

[areyoureadytojump]

What has been the lowest selling #1 digital single?

185k is low for a #1, but probably not the record.

I'm talking recent times. Not when the chart begain back in 2005.

[Au$tin]

Aug 10, 2011 10:12:59 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

What has been the lowest selling #1 digital single?

185k is low for a #1, but probably not the record.

I'm talking recent times. Not when the chart begain back in 2005.

Oh, okay. I was gonna say...

[Au$tin]

15. THE BAND PERRY - If I Die Young: 58.663 (+ 1.241)

Holy crap!!! :o

[stanr]

OMG 7-10 will be very close!!

1. LMFAO = 140 + 185 = 325
2. KATY = 147 + 136 = 283
3. NICKI = 124 + 140 = 264
4. BME = 77 + 164 = 241
5. LIL WAYNE = 113 + 125 = 238
6. PITBULL = 119 + 105 = 224
7/8/9/10. BRITNEY = 89 + 109 = 198
7/8/9/10. MAROON 5 = 36 + 159 = 195
7/8/9/10. ADELE = 109 + 85 (ESTIMATION) = 194
7/8/9/10. HOT CHELLE RAE = 70 + 123 = 193
11. ONEREPUBLIC = 87 + 100 (ESTIMATION) = 187
12. FOSTER THE PEOPLE = 36 + 134 = 170

[areyoureadytojump]

Aug 10, 2011 10:26:21 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

15. THE BAND PERRY - If I Die Young: 58.663 (+ 1.241)

Holy crap!!! :o

Didn't it come out over a year ago?

[HolidayGuy]

Digital sales were not what they were when Hot Digital Songs debuted in February 2005 (Digital Tracks, of course, debuted around summer 2003), but here's some historical info, anyways. We need info for 2009-present.

Lowest No. 1 tallies for 2005-2008:

2005
35,566 ("Just The Girl," The Click Five)- 10/9/05

2006
61,294 ("Check On It," Beyoncé Feat. Slim Thug)- 1/28/06

2007
98,251 ("Irreplaceable," Beyoncé)- 1/27/07

2008
139,755 ("Disturbia," Rihanna)- 8/16/08

For 2009, "Single Ladies" scanned 148,821 for the chart dated 1/3/09- that may be the low for that year (though the sales occurred in 2008, we'd still count it for 2009).

[herb]

Aug 10, 2011 10:30:12 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Aug 10, 2011 10:26:21 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

15. THE BAND PERRY - If I Die Young: 58.663 (+ 1.241)

Holy crap!!! :o

Didn't it come out over a year ago?

Good observation. It is. I believe that it also make it to the 2010 year end chart.

[colson]

I wouldn't be surprised if MLJ comes close to doubling that tally next week. It could get close to 300k.

[Deleted]

Aug 10, 2011 10:35:27 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Digital sales were not what they were when Hot Digital Songs debuted in February 2005 (Digital Tracks, of course, debuted around summer 2003), but here's some historical info, anyways. We need info for 2009-present.

Lowest No. 1 tallies for 2005-2008:

2005
35,566 ("Just The Girl," The Click Five)- 10/9/05

2006
61,294 ("Check On It," Beyoncé Feat. Slim Thug)- 1/28/06

2007
98,251 ("Irreplaceable," Beyoncé)- 1/27/07

2008
139,755 ("Disturbia," Rihanna)- 8/16/08

For 2009, "Single Ladies" scanned 148,821 for the chart dated 1/3/09- that may be the low for that year (though the sales occurred in 2008, we'd still count it for 2009).

I think this is right:

2009:
3- Britney Spears- 172k (10/31/2009)

2010:
Break Your Heart- Taio Cruz- 176k (4/3/2010)

2011 so far:
Party Rock Anthem- LMFAO- 185k (8/20/2011)



Also, the highest selling number ones by year:
2005:
Gold Digger- Kanye West- 81k (9/17/2005)

2006:
Hips Don't Lie- Shakira- 267k (6/17/2006)

2007:
Fergalicious- Fegie- 295k (1/13/2007)
non holiday week- Umbrella- Rihanna- 277k (6/9/2007)

2008:
Low- Flo Rida- 467k (1/12/2008)
non holiday week- Live You Life- TI & Rihanna- 335k (10/18/2008)

2009:
Right Round- Flo Rida- 636k (2/28/2009)

2010:
Tik Tik- Ke$ha- 610k (1/9/2010)
non holiday week- Not Afraid- Eminem- 379k (5/22/2010)

2011 so far:
Grenade- Bruno Mars- 559k (1/8/2011)
non holiday week- Born This Way- Lady Gaga- 509k (3/5/2011)

[Cerbius]

Go MLJ! Looks like it may match (or even beat) its initial Hot 100 peak this week. It will undoubtedly advance into the top 3 next week.

[popstop]

If the airplay/sales trends hold, I don't see Lighters being a threat next week with those numbers. Even if they gain another 30 points in airplay, they'd still be short, and that's before adding in the remix. Katy only has to outgun PRA. She'll need about 45-50K on the remix to do it.

[@DiegoMarcondes_]

More Mediabase

8/10/11 Update

KENNY CHESNEY - You And Tequila f/Grace Potter = 40.895 (+0.105)
JAKE OWEN - Barefoot Blue Jean Night= 40.653 (+0.479)
RODNEY ATKINS -Take A Back Road= 33.188 (+0.680)
TRACE ADKINS -Just Fishin'= 32.4681 (+0.274)
KEITH URBAN -Long Hot Summer= 30.715 (+0.492)
TOBY KEITH -Made In America= 29.724 (+0.558)
BILLY CURRINGTON -Love Done Gone= 28.960 (-0.039)
SCOTTY MCCREERY - I Love You This Big = 25.955 (-0.076)
BIG SEAN -Marvin & Chardonnay= 24.593 (+0.951)
ANDY GRAMMER - Keep Your Head Up= 23.321 (-0.144)
MIGUEL -Quickie= 22.449 (+0.615)
AFROJACK -Take Over Control f/Eva Simons= 22.318 (+0.411)
BLAKE SHELTON -God Gave Me You= 21.692 (+0.939)
THOMPSON SQUARE -I Got You= 21.564 (+0.075)
DRAKE -Marvin's Room= 19.037 (+0.393)
GYM CLASS HEROES- Stereo Hearts f/Adam Levine = 18.974 (+0.988)
FOO FIGHTERS - Walk= 16.763 (+0.314)
DEV -In The Dark= 14.618 (+0.415)
NEW BOYZ -Better With The Lights Off= 12.875 (+0.080)
TINIE TEMPAH -Till I'm Gone f/Wiz Khalifa= 12.196 (+0.040)
TYGA -Far Away f/Chris Richardson= 11.410 (+0.231)
IYAZ -Pretty Girls= 11.396 (+0.530)
WALE - That Way f/Jeremih & Rick Ross= 11.379 (+0.368)
JENNIFER HUDSON - No One Gonna Love You= 10.888 (+0.082)
THE SCRIPT -Nothing= 10.207 (+0.548)
MATT NATHANSON -Faster= 10.139 (+0.181)
RASCAL FLATTS -Easy= 9.604 (+0.040)
KREAYSHAWN -Gucci Gucci= 9.344 (+0.148)
ESTELLE -Break My Heart f/Rick Ross= 8.833 (-0.090)
THEORY OF A DEADMAN -Lowlife= 7.895 (+0.032)
CHRIS BROWN -Wet The Bed= 7.262 (+0.442)
MONICA -Anything f/Rick Ross & Lil Kim= 7.186 (+0.209)
STAIND -Not Again= 6.677 (+0.084)
MIRANDA LAMBERT -Baggage Claim= 6.559 (+1.002)
WIZ KHALIFA -No Sleep= 6.593 (+0.279)
GOO GOO DOLLS -All That You Are= 6.365 (+0.126)
CHRISTINA PERRI -Arms= 6.308 (+0.085)
GAME -Pot Of Gold f/Chris Brown= 5.683 (+0.171)
LLOYD -Dedication To My Ex...= 5.569 (+0.398)
J. COLE -Workout= 5.281 (+0.112)
KELLIE PICKLER -Tough= 5.184 (+0.185)
ACE HOOD -Body 2 Body f/Chris Brown= 4.725 (+0.232)
BUSH - The Sound Of Winter= 4.706 (+0.041)
SEAN PAUL -Got 2 Luv U f/Alexis Jordan= 4.155 (+0.170)
MUMFORD & SONS -Roll Away Your Stone= 4.130 (+0.031)
JOE JONAS - See No More= 4.023 (+0.041)
GAVIN DEGRAW - Not Over You = 3.874 (+0.030)
COLBIE CAILLAT -Brighter Than The Sun= 3.735 (+0.077)
SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA-Save The World=3.308 (-0.044)
CODY SIMPSON -On My Mind= 2.957 (+0.041)
YOUNG JEEZY -Shake Life= 2.809 (+0.276)
DEMI LOVATO - Skyscraper = 2.529 (-0.011)
JANE'S ADDICTION -Irresistible Force= 2.483 (-0.250)
MICHELLE BRANCH -Loud Music= 2.496 (+0.075)
INCUBUS -Promises, Promises= 1.900 (+0.024)
LENNY KRAVITZ -Stand= 1.679 (-0.067)
DAVID GUETTA - Little Bad Girl f/Taio Cruz= 1.603 (+0.016)
NAYER -Suave (Kiss Me) f/Mohombi= 1.578 (+0.148)
THE BAND PERRY - All Your Life= 1.459 (-0.014)
KELLY ROWLAND -Lay It On Me f/Big Sean= 1.450 (+0.101)
KOOKS -Junk Of The Heart= 1.179 (+0.089)
SWITCHFOOT -Dark Horses= 1.022 (+0.041)
KAT DELUNA- Drop It Low= 0.922 (+0.026)
CHERLISE -Love U Right f/Lil Wayne= 0.692 (+0.045)
SUPERHEAVY -Miracle Worker= 0.677 (+0.040)
JASON DERULO -It Girl= 0.601 (+0.199)
50 CENT -I'm On It= 0.531 (+0.031)
TYRESE -Too Easy f/Ludacris= 0.519 (+0.031)
T.I. -We Don't Get Down Like Y'all= 0.443
NICKI MINAJ -Fly f/Rihanna= 0.440 (+0.171)
IFFY -Do You= 0.381 (-0.006)
PIA TOSCANO -This Time= 0.361 (+0.011)
SKYLAR GRAY - Invisible = 0.348 (-0.004)
CASEY JAMES-Let's Don't Call It A Night= 0.323 (-0.011)
TIMBALAND -Pass At Me f/Pitbull= 0.174 (+0.007)
SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE -Love You Like A Love Song= 0.127 (-0.005)
KELLY CLARKSON -Let Me Down= 0.118 (+0.005)
KERLI - Army of Love = 0.069 (+0.002)
LEONA LEWIS -Collide= 0.043 (+0.001)
SHAKIRA -Rabiosa f/Pitbull= 0.035 (+0.017)
CSS (CANSEI DE SER SEXY) -Hits Me Like A Rock= 0.013 (=)

[Keelzit]

I'm loving IWG's increases. It's on track to outdo TTWE! :o