Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2011 17:46:57 GMT -5
BUBLE BUBBLES OVER His Christmas Album Looks Like Top-Selling Release of Holiday Season
November 30, 2011
Michael Buble’s Christmas is the gift that just keeps on giving. The Reprise crooner will grab the #1 album slot next week, and likely stay there through the holidays, though Adele, Justin Bieber and The Black Keys will all challenge for the top spot.
Adele’s expected batch of Grammy nominations tonight for her 4.7 million-selling XL/Columbia album 21 could well put her in the hunt, while Bieber’s Island/IDJ release, Under the Mistletoe, and Nonesuch’s highly anticipated Black Keys record, El Camino, which comes out Dec. 6, will also be hot on Buble’s heels.
This week’s new release slate is rather slight, with Atlantic’s Trey Songz (18-22k) and the debut album from IMO/RCA’s Hot Chelle Rae (14-17k), who have a smash single in the ubiquitous “Tonight Tonight,” the top debuts.
Adele’s Live at the Royal Albert Hall DVD/CD package which, according to the label, will be counted only on the DVD chart, should do between 55-70k.
The market was down 5% vs. last year’s Black Friday, but up 39% from last week and still leading last year by 2%.
Track sales were up 2% vs. last week, flat vs. same week last year and up 10% year to date.
TEA (Track Equivalent Album) sales were up 30% vs. last week, down 4% vs. same week last year and up 4% year to date.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Nov 30, 2011 18:00:07 GMT -5
I assume Adele's live release would've been able to chart on the Billboard 200 had they marketed it the other way around (as a CD/DVD package)
Those are awful projections for both Songz and Hot Chelle Rae, considering it's pretty much December
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Nov 30, 2011 18:03:33 GMT -5
That Adele reign just won't let up.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 30, 2011 19:04:28 GMT -5
Adele's label made a mistake with the dvd/cd packaging.
Have some balls and release it as a cd/dvd package!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2011 19:15:59 GMT -5
Why does it matter?
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Nov 30, 2011 19:26:25 GMT -5
It's up to the label to decide how it wants these combo packages to chart. Beyonce's label opted for her last one to chart on the Music Videos chart rather than the BB 200.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2011 19:27:23 GMT -5
It doesn't, really, at least not to the label. They'll make money regardless of how it's marketed. It just would have been some more BB chart stats for us nerds to follow. I assume Adele's live release would've been able to chart on the Billboard 200 had they marketed it the other way around (as a CD/DVD package) Those are awful projections for both Songz and Hot Chelle Rae, considering it's pretty much December Did Trey or Atlantic even market this EP for real? I know I wouldn't have heard about it had I not seen it mentioned here on Pulse. The single he released from it isn't charting high (at all?) on the r&b/hip hop chart, so that also doesn't help. Sounds like something he's just putting out there to fill the gap until he releases his actual album. I thought HCR would do better than that, though. But then, again, I'm wonering if lack of real promotion/awareness of the album release is what is doing them in, because I didn't know they were releasing this week until yesterday.
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Black Jesus
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Post by Black Jesus on Nov 30, 2011 19:32:34 GMT -5
Jeez. Slaydele is gonna hit 7 million no problem lol
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2011 19:35:30 GMT -5
Hot Chelle Rae= yet another singles artist (Taio, Flo, DeRulo, Jay Sean, etc..) HCR reminds me of All American Rejects for some reason.. With those numbers, doesn't look to be any top 10 debuts next week. Anything major being released before Christmas? Becuase this season is looking to be pretty blah bar Buble/ Adele can't wait for January sales... well with SFTTR blowing up, hopefully Adele will make sure there aren't any 40k #1's this time around
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2011 19:36:09 GMT -5
It's up to the label to decide how it wants these combo packages to chart. Beyonce's label opted for her last one to chart on the Music Videos chart rather than the BB 200. Maybe There is a set policy for this, I can't seem to find it for the CD/DVD being 50-50 weight at the moment I do know that if one format is longer than the other, that is the chart it resides in
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Nov 30, 2011 21:25:16 GMT -5
Trey Songz numbers are not horrible at all. there was 0 promotion for it. It is just a holdover before his new album drops Q2 2012
50-75k for a DVD/cd is great. shows the power Adele has. I will have to get that soon
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Nov 30, 2011 21:32:46 GMT -5
My bad, I figured it was a proper full-length studio album. Still awful for Hot Chelle Rae, mind.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Nov 30, 2011 21:33:34 GMT -5
Does this Buble vs. Adele thing mean that Adele may top 200k this coming week?? I can't see Buble decreasing much from last week
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Nov 30, 2011 21:59:10 GMT -5
Does this Buble vs. Adele thing mean that Adele may top 200k this coming week?? I can't see Buble decreasing much from last week The way I read it, Michael Buble will easily be #1 this week. I think the "Adele, Bieber and The Black Keys will all challenge for the top spot" comment refers to the coming weeks before Christmas, since right before, the article states that Buble will "likely stay there through the holidays". Could be wrong, but that's the way I read it.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Dec 1, 2011 4:06:54 GMT -5
No estimates there but I hope ~150k for The Black Keys.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Dec 1, 2011 9:38:35 GMT -5
Most non-holiday albums see notable declines in the post-Thanksgiving week- so, any losses Adele's album may experience may be softened by the nominations. Or, the album even may increase a little. But to 200K? I wouldn't think so, but we can't underestimate the power of 21. :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2011 9:42:21 GMT -5
It doesn't, really, at least not to the label. They'll make money regardless of how it's marketed. It just would have been some more BB chart stats for us nerds to follow. I assume Adele's live release would've been able to chart on the Billboard 200 had they marketed it the other way around (as a CD/DVD package) Those are awful projections for both Songz and Hot Chelle Rae, considering it's pretty much December Did Trey or Atlantic even market this EP for real? I know I wouldn't have heard about it had I not seen it mentioned here on Pulse. The single he released from it isn't charting high (at all?) on the r&b/hip hop chart, so that also doesn't help. Sounds like something he's just putting out there to fill the gap until he releases his actual album. I thought HCR would do better than that, though. But then, again, I'm wonering if lack of real promotion/awareness of the album release is what is doing them in, because I didn't know they were releasing this week until yesterday. They didn't release any singles from the EP to radio at all. They shot videos. 18-22k is basically his hardcore fans. Not bad at all.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Dec 1, 2011 10:31:33 GMT -5
Billboard thinks that Buble will be #1 next week: www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/industry/record-labels/michael-buble-s-christmas-set-for-second-1005589562.storyMichael Buble's 'Christmas' Set for Second Week at No. 1 By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles After Michael Buble's "Christmas" album squeaked past Nickelback's "Here and Now" to claim the No. 1 slot on the Billboard 200 this past week, it would seem Mr. Buble isn't going anywhere soon. His latest album, "Christmas," should easily hold down the top slot on the chart next week, industry sources suggest -- and perhaps for the rest of the year. While it's too early to tell what the album may sell in the tracking week that ends on Dec. 4, it's expected to get bigger. This past week, the album moved 227,000, according to Nielsen SoundScan. No titles are forecasted to debut in the top 10 next week, with seemingly only Trey Songz's "Inevitable" EP and Hot Chelle Rae's "Whatever" on course for top 30 arrivals. Most of the biggest albums of 2011 have already taken a bow, which is why there is little threat to Buble's reign at No. 1.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Dec 1, 2011 12:35:08 GMT -5
Per a BB staffer, a label has the option of where it wants a CD/DVD combo to chart- not sure if that's only in the case of running time or what.
I would think Buble will hold down the top spot. We'll see what HITS' updated projections look like.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2011 13:00:11 GMT -5
Per a BB staffer, a label has the option of where it wants a CD/DVD combo to chart- not sure if that's only in the case of running time or what. I would think Buble will hold down the top spot. We'll see what HITS' updated projections look like. Is that for combos with 50-50 weight or is that for something like a 3CD/1 DVD or 3DVD/1CD set
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Dec 1, 2011 13:10:37 GMT -5
I don't recall if there was a specification made in regards to the CD/DVD percentages. It would make sense for a set containing more DVDs than CDs to appear on the videos chart- and a package housing more CDs than DVDs should appear on the BB 200 (the running time for the dominant format also should exceed that for the other format, but I don't know for sure what the rules are).
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Post by neverduplicated on Dec 1, 2011 13:37:44 GMT -5
Per a BB staffer, a label has the option of where it wants a CD/DVD combo to chart- not sure if that's only in the case of running time or what. I would think Buble will hold down the top spot. We'll see what HITS' updated projections look like. Is that for combos with 50-50 weight or is that for something like a 3CD/1 DVD or 3DVD/1CD set It can't be purely runtime because the DVD of Taylor Swift's Speak Now tour is much longer than the CD, yet it's charting on the albums chart.
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Dec 1, 2011 18:44:39 GMT -5
Mary J. Blige selling more than Rihanna. :o :o
Michael Buble has a commanding lead for #1 this week. At this level, he will likely remain in that spot until the end of the year. At midweek, it doesn't appear that any debuts will hit the Top 15 on next week's chart. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:
Michael Buble (Reprise) 250-275k Adele (XL/Columbia) 120-130k Justin Bieber (Island/IDJ) 120-130k Drake (YM/CM/Universal Republic) 90-100k Mary J. Blige (Geffen) 80-85k Nickelback (Roadrunner) 70-75k Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJ) 70-75k Andrea Bocelli (Decca) 60-65k Now 40 (Capitol/EMI) 50-55k Coldplay (Capitol/EMI) 45-50k Jackie Evancho (Syco/Columbia) 40-45k Glee Christmas, Vol. 2 (Columbia) 40-45k Daughtry (19/RCA) 35-40k Lady Antebellum (Capitol Nashville) 35-40k Susan Boyle (Syco/Columbia) 35-40k (12/1p)
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Dec 1, 2011 18:54:27 GMT -5
As expected.
Jackie Evancho close to the top 10. And look at SuBo's album- it's not going to lose any sales?
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Dec 1, 2011 18:56:04 GMT -5
Wait, since Mary had that $1.99 Amazon deal, her sales on Soundscan will probably be 10-15K less than projected on HDD.
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I Wish
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Post by I Wish on Dec 1, 2011 19:01:54 GMT -5
Wasn't Rihanna's album on sale for $1.99 on Google Music for the day too? Idk how big of an effect that'll be, but it might do something.
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₫anny Jerz ♔
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Post by ₫anny Jerz ♔ on Dec 1, 2011 19:04:34 GMT -5
Ouch @ HCR's estimates. Looks like Buble has another big-seller in his hands and Adele will sail right to her next certification.
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Kishi KCM
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Post by Kishi KCM on Dec 1, 2011 19:21:06 GMT -5
Rihanna has this weeks #1 WW album, so it's no big sweat. ;)
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Rodze
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Post by Rodze on Dec 1, 2011 19:32:43 GMT -5
I'm sort of disappointed with Adele sales. She spent the whole year selling over 100k, so I was expecting her to easily stay over 200k during these last weeks. =P
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2011 20:04:55 GMT -5
Adele may be "losing" some of her extra sales to her DVD/CD package.
Hits has Mary at just a 50% drop; that's solid. I wonder if maybe some of her fanbase just wasn't aware of the album's release last week. But then, Billboard/Soundscan may have different numbers. I know they had her at almost 10k less than Hits did for her opening week...did the 1.99 Amazon sale stretch into this week as well?
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