Billboard Hot 100: 02/25/12

[Verisimilitude]

Feb 14, 2012 23:28:24 GMT -5 moore746 said:

Considering that I Will Always Love You sold 195,000 copies in one day last week and continued to grow in sales through yesterday, I have to think we are going to see massive single sales this week. That bodes well for Katy getting another #1.

HITS said she sold 97K yesterday so Katy must be over 150K by now.

[bigb0882]

I am glad this new single will not count as part of TD and therefore break the record. I wanted her to break the record so badly with TOTGA but it wouldn't be right. You can't just continue to add songs to an album over time and keep saying the album has broken this record and that record. What is to stop someone from constantly re-releasing one album over the course of 10 years until the album only contains #1 tracks? Should they have the honor of having the first full length album with every single song being a single and going to #1? No way.

[imbondz]

Feb 14, 2012 14:14:06 GMT -5 Codex said:

So... re-releases count the same as the original album unless you are going to break a record with it?

LOL!! yes that is correct.

[imbondz]

once the chart is released, can someone figure out approximately where 'I Will Always Love You' would have re-entered if it was allowed to?

[cesarams]

Feb 14, 2012 14:14:06 GMT -5 Codex said:

So... re-releases count the same as the original album unless you are going to break a record with it? Or will all re-releases count separately now?

They're considering two types: album & album with re-release
So, if you count album they're tied.
If you count album with re-release, Katy could win.
It's just like two different records, I think.

[cesarams]

TODAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. ADELE - Set Fire To The Rain: 148.447 (+ 1.662)
2. RIHANNA - We Found Love f/Calvin Harris: 129.390 (- 0.678)
3. FLO RIDA - Good Feeling: 115.185 (- 2.720)
4. BRUNO MARS - It Will Rain: 101.609 (- 1.997)
5. KATY PERRY - The One That Got Away: 95.906 (- 2.604)
6. JESSIE J - Domino: 85.953 (+ 0.761)
7. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 85.070 (+ 2.993)
8. DAVID GUETTA - Turn Me On f/Nicki Minaj: 77.709 (+ 0.715)
9. PITBULL F/CHRIS BROWN - International Love: 70.073 (+ 0.403) ▲
10. JAY Z & KANYE WEST - N***** In Paris: 68.320 (- 2.323) ▼
11. DRAKE - The Motto f/Lil Wayne: 66.428 (+ 0.903) ▲
12. MAROON 5 F/CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Moves Like Jagger: 65.803 (- 0.943) ▼
13. DRAKE - Take Care f/Rihanna: 65.794 (+ 1.779) ▲
14. GAVIN DEGRAW - Not Over You: 65.731 (- 0.316) ▼
15. J. COLE - Workout: 64.613 (- 1.832) ▼
16. WIZ KHALIFA/SNOOP DOGG - Young, Wild & Free f/B. Mars: 63.726 (+ 0.913) ▲
17. DAVID GUETTA - Without You f/Usher: 62.584 (- 1.270) ▼
18. SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE: Love You Like A Love Song: 55.214 (- 0.930)
19. TYGA - Rack City: 55.138 (- 0.139) ▲
20. ADELE - Someone Like You: 55.041 (- 0.370)

OTHERS:

LMFAO - Sexy And I Know It: 54.513 (- 0.976)
DRAKE - Make Me Proud f/Nicki Minaj: 54.190 (- 1.091)
THE BAND PERRY - All Your Life: 51.285 (- 0.568)
GYM CLASS HEROES - Ass Back Home f/Neon Hitch: 51.271 (+ 0.529)
THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 37.224 (+ 1.040)
BEYONCE - Love On Top: 33.223 (+ 0.199)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Ours: 32.327 (+ 0.640)
BLAKE SHELTON - Drink On It: 31.703 (+ 0.309)
RIHANNA - Talk That Talk f/Jay-Z: 30.748 (+ 0.708)
TRAIN - Drive By: 23.999 (+ 0.320)
MADONNA - Give Me All Your Luvin': 21.782 (- 0.100)
LMFAO - Sorry For Party Rocking: 19.674 (+ 0.377)
CHRIS BROWN - Turn Up The Music: 17.486 (+ 0.768)
KATY PERRY - Part Of Me: 16.318 (+ 3.095)
FOO FIGHTERS - These Days: 14.080 (- 0.239)
FOSTER THE PEOPLE - Don't Stop (Color On The Walls: 13.496 (- 0.049)
NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 10.867
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 8.765 (+ 0.341)
FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 6.488 (+ 0.393)
DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 3.065
ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 0.514

[RockaByeBaby]

Katy ;)


No Cassie "King of Hearts"? (lol) :(

[HolidayGuy]

Are Nicki Minaj and her team having spastic moments? They film a video for "Stupid Hoe," it's top 30 at urban radio (as "Stupid Stupid"), she performs "Roman's Holiday" at the Grammys and now releases "Starships"? That's a pretty large first-day audience (unless it went to radio Monday?)

Granted, "Roman's Holiday" would be an off-putting track for radio. Same for "Stupid Hoe," I suppose. But, there should have been some better focus. I guess that's why the label pushed back the album release.

[Deleted]

Stupid Hoe won't cross over to pop, and Starships won't cross over to urban, so I think they're just trying to keep both sides happy.

[allow that]

Is it possible to have airplay for Gotye and Calvin Harris please?

[ListenToItTwice]

FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 6.488 (+ 0.393)

Wait that's it? Radio needs to get their asses in gear.

[Rodze]

www.billboard.com/#/news/adele-s-21-hits-20th-week-at-no-1-van-halen-1006195752.story

Over on the Digital Songs chart, fun.'s "We Are Young" (featuring Janelle Monae) makes a splash, rising from No. 22 to No. 1 with 296,000 downloads sold (up 338%). The tune was used in a stunt-filled Chevrolet Super Bowl (Feb. 5) commercial touting its 2012 Sonic.

fun.'s ascent to the top pushes Kelly Clarkson's "Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)" down a slot to No. 1, despite a sales gain. It sold 260,000 and was up by 10%.

Whitney Houston's "I Will Always Love You" debuts at No. 3 with 195,000 (up 6,724%) in the wake of her passing. It's a debut on the chart -- rather than a re-entry -- as the Digital Songs list didn't exist in 1992 when the song was first released.

Adele's "Set Fire to the Rain" is forced backwards -- falling 2-4 -- though it increases in sales: 187,000 (up 14%). Clearly thanks to her Grammy buzz, she has two more songs in the top 10: "Someone Like You" rallies 23-9 with 128,000 (up 91%) and "Rolling in the Deep" (which she performed) zooms 39-10 (126,000; up 174%).

It's the first time a lead act has had three songs concurrently in the top 10 since the chart dated July 25, 2009, when Michael Jackson was at Nos. 2, 8 and 9 with "Man in the Mirror," "Billie Jean" and "Thriller," respectively.

LMFAO's "Sexy and I Know It" rises 9-5 with 170,000 (up 53%) while Madonna's "Give Me All Your Luvin'" (featuring Nicki Minaj & M.I.A.) rises 7-6 with 165,000 (up 44%) in its first full week of availablility. Tyga's "Rack City" slips 4-7 (139,000; up less than 1%) and David Guetta's "Turn Me On" (featuring Minaj) drops 8-9 (139,000; down 6%).


Digital track sales this past week totaled 28.93 million downloads, up 10% compared to last week (26.39 million) and up 8% stacked next to the comparable week of 2011 (26.78 million). Year to date track sales are at 170.50 million, up 7% compared to the same total at this point last year (159.72 million).



-----------------------------
Should be enough for Kelly, I think.

[badrobot]

This only includes songs in the digital top ten, so there will be some other high-airplay songs above these:


Kelly 260 + 85 = 345
Adele Fire 187 + 148 = 335
fun 296 + 7 = 303
LMFAO 170 + 55 = 225
Guetta 139 + 78 = 217
Tyga 139 + 55 = 194
Madonna 165 + 22 = 187
Adele Someone 128 + 55 = 183
Adele Rolling 126 + 27 = 153

[bigb0882]

Kelly outsold Adele by 77K and the difference in airplay yesterday was about 65 so Kelly should have this by 12 points or so, give or take something for streaming.

[badrobot]

I am thinking Madonna will end up #10 or #9 to just barely eke out a top ten.

Rihanna, Flo and maybe Bruno will be above her.

[badrobot]

Actually there is a chance Madonna will miss the top ten this week after all. Domino could also be above her.

[HolidayGuy]

Not knowing the sales outside the top 10, too tough to call right now. I was expecting 11-13, and that's probably what will happen.

[areyoureadytojump]

Billboard.com

HOT DIGITAL SONGS

1. Fun. f/ Janelle Monae, "We Are Young" (296,000)
2. Kelly Clarkson, "Stronger" (260,000)
3. Whitney Houston, "I Will Always Love You" (195,000)
4. Adele, "Set Fire To The Rain" (187,000)
5. LMFAO, "Sexy & I Know It" (170,000)
6. Madonna f/ Nicki Minaj & M.I.A., "Give Me All Your Luvin'" (165,000)
7. Tyga, "Rack City" (139,000)
8. David Guetta f/ Nicki Minaj, "Turn Me On" (139,000)
9. Adele, "Someone Like You" (128,000)
10. Adele, "Rolling In The Deep" (126,000)

[damku13]

Does anyone have yesterday's airplay numbers for Whitney's tracks? If re-currents were allowed to re-enter the Hot 100 (which I know they're not), I'm curious to see where Whitney's IWALY would rank

[ListenToItTwice]

Feb 15, 2012 11:09:19 GMT -5 badrobot said:

This only includes songs in the digital top ten, so there will be some other high-airplay songs above these:


Kelly 260 + 85 = 345
Adele Fire 187 + 148 = 335
fun 296 + 7 = 303

Mathematically speaking, though, that top 3 is guaranteed.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and call this the best top three in Hot 100 history, per my personal tastes. Damn.

[badrobot]

So, actually I think Madonna will be above Bruno, didn't realize his sales were only 69k last week.

My guess for the top ten:

Kelly 260 + 85 = 345
Adele Fire 187 + 148 = 335
fun 296 + 7 = 303
Rihanna ~110k + 129 = 239 (probably a slight increase post-Grammys)
LMFAO 170 + 55 = 225
Flo Rida ~105 + 115 = 220
Guetta 139 + 78 = 217
Tyga 139 + 55 = 194
Madonna 165 + 22 = 187
Jessie J ~100 + 86 = 186
Adele Someone 128 + 55 = 183
Snoop Dogg ~115k + 64 = 179
Bruno ~65k + 102 = 167

Madonna should get #9 or #10 after all, fingers crossed!

[newpower99]

Feb 15, 2012 11:22:57 GMT -5 damku13 said:

Does anyone have yesterday's airplay numbers for Whitney's tracks? If re-currents were allowed to re-enter the Hot 100 (which I know they're not), I'm curious to see where Whitney's IWALY would rank

It would have about 220 chart points (195 sales+ guessing 25 airplay) which looks like it would be about #6-7 if eligible. ..give or take

[HolidayGuy]

The higher the airplay, the more of a discrepancy between Mediabase/BDS.

Snoop Dogg and Jesse J are the ones who may squash its top 10 chances. And then there's that Pitbull track- it leads GMAYL by some 49 million Mediabase- and was at #14 in sales last week.

[Agent Yoncé]

Pretty slow day for 'LOT.' Hopefully we get a good one tomorrow :)

[badrobot]

Isn't BDS usually lower than Mediabase?

That would hurt Jessie J/Snoop/Pitbull all more than Madonna.

[chartfreak]

Come on Madonna, get that top 10, but I think the Grammy's screwed your chance. I hope I am wrong!

[dlostfan]

Nice for Stronger.

[cesarams]

Feb 15, 2012 11:39:57 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Isn't BDS usually lower than Mediabase?

That would hurt Jessie J/Snoop/Pitbull all more than Madonna.

No. I think BDS end the week charting at Sunday, and not at Tuesday, how some people say. So we count till Wednesday numbers while the real important are the numbers of the Monday's update. After they put out the top ten of this week, look at the Monday's update and do the comparison.

[chartfreak]

Feb 15, 2012 11:27:23 GMT -5 badrobot said:

So, actually I think Madonna will be above Bruno, didn't realize his sales were only 69k last week.

My guess for the top ten:

Kelly 260 + 85 = 345
Adele Fire 187 + 148 = 335
fun 296 + 7 = 303
Rihanna ~110k + 129 = 239 (probably a slight increase post-Grammys)
LMFAO 170 + 55 = 225
Flo Rida ~105 + 115 = 220
Guetta 139 + 78 = 217
Tyga 139 + 55 = 194
Madonna 165 + 22 = 187
Jessie J ~100 + 86 = 186
Adele Someone 128 + 55 = 183
Snoop Dogg ~115k + 64 = 179
Bruno ~65k + 102 = 167

Madonna should get #9 or #10 after all, fingers crossed!

How accurate have you been in the past?

[badrobot]

^Well, those should be pretty reliable (roughly) for the ones we have actual sales data for.

If they are within a few points of each other, they can easily swap. I'd say we have these possibilities:

1 Kelly
2 Adele
3 fun
4/5 Rihanna
4/5/6 LMFAO
5/6/7 Flo Rida
6/7 David Guetta
8 Tyga
9/10/11/12 Madonna
9/10/11/12 Jessie J
10/11/12/13 Adele
10/11/12/13 Snoop Dogg
10/11/12/13 Pitbull (based on HG's comment)

Lots of close calls.