Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on May 17, 2012 1:20:51 GMT -5
That's nice but I see absolutely no logic. Are you saying this because Carrie is an older Idol? Or is it because she's a bigger star? I'm not sure what you're saying, here... Just hazarding a guess here - maybe he is saying that b/c Carrie was already doing heavy promo for her album; thus, an Idol appearance was not going to increase awareness much more than what she already had. Adam, however, only has the Idol performance and GMA this week, IIRC. So his Idol performance could mean a lot more for him b/c it's one of only two platforms that he has and it reaches a lot of people who otherwise wouldn't know he had an album coming out. Again, this is completely a guess as to what he meant, but that is how I interpreted it. Not sure I want to see what the second week drop for Adam will be like b/c he's basically got nothing going on at radio and relatively little promo lined up this time, but doing anything north of 70k is respectable these days IMO and speaks to the current size of his core fanbase. Now I'm just crossing my fingers and toes in hopes that Kris can hit 40k. I thought about two things 1.) It is a more significant boost Adam if Idol helps him to shift 20k more - that'd be a big difference, for example from 60k to 80k whilst the same boost wasn't significant for Carrie. She was selling pretty well anyway 2.) Also I have a feeling that Carrie is more of a household name and her fanbase is not so devoted. Her audience will not necessarily tune in for Idol to just to see her perform.
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Post by sofaraway26 on May 17, 2012 4:54:53 GMT -5
no prediction for Santana?
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ElijahWood
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Post by ElijahWood on May 17, 2012 7:47:47 GMT -5
Team Adele. I still want 25 weeks to magically happen.
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asg4
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Post by asg4 on May 17, 2012 8:13:57 GMT -5
Team Adele. I still want 25 weeks to magically happen. Adele will be high 60s this week low 60s next week high 50s week after mid 50s low 50s high 40s low 40s high 30s low 30s
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on May 17, 2012 13:22:13 GMT -5
What do you think, could Donna Summer be #1 next week?
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on May 17, 2012 13:29:47 GMT -5
What do you think, could Donna Summer be #1 next week? I HIGHLY doubt it... It's Thursday, and it's a very slow sales week. She'll see an increase, but not enough to overtake Adele, Carrie, and Adam.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on May 17, 2012 13:34:21 GMT -5
She has 4 different Greatest Hits albums in the iTunes top 100 at the moment, so I'm not sure she'll have enough sales concentrated in one album to top the chart. I can see her making the top 10 next week though with one of them... she'll probably need to sell 25k. Maybe she'll have a better chance the following week when the stores are stocked with them.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on May 17, 2012 13:39:18 GMT -5
Just hazarding a guess here - maybe he is saying that b/c Carrie was already doing heavy promo for her album; thus, an Idol appearance was not going to increase awareness much more than what she already had. Adam, however, only has the Idol performance and GMA this week, IIRC. So his Idol performance could mean a lot more for him b/c it's one of only two platforms that he has and it reaches a lot of people who otherwise wouldn't know he had an album coming out. Again, this is completely a guess as to what he meant, but that is how I interpreted it. Not sure I want to see what the second week drop for Adam will be like b/c he's basically got nothing going on at radio and relatively little promo lined up this time, but doing anything north of 70k is respectable these days IMO and speaks to the current size of his core fanbase. Now I'm just crossing my fingers and toes in hopes that Kris can hit 40k. I thought about two things 1.) It is a more significant boost Adam if Idol helps him to shift 20k more - that'd be a big difference, for example from 60k to 80k whilst the same boost wasn't significant for Carrie. She was selling pretty well anyway 2.) Also I have a feeling that Carrie is more of a household name and her fanbase is not so devoted. Her audience will not necessarily tune in for Idol to just to see her perform.You sure about that one? Not to veer off topic but I think the opposite is the case. Carrie's hardcore fan base is one of the most devoted of all today's contemporary artists. She and only a few others can be basically guaranteed almost any fan-voted awards. Fan votes may not correlate directly to viewership of her TV appearances, but she definitely has an extremely devoted fan base, as shown by her unusually high and consistent album sales, fan-voted awards, #1 singles, and massive tours. Carrie, Taylor Swift, and Justin Bieber fall into this category. Unless nominated against each other, they're almost guaranteed anything fan-voted. I think that reflects the opposite of what you said; "her fan base is not so devoted". These same fans are those who tune in to literally every appearance imaginable featuring their respected favorite. I agree with your first point, though.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on May 17, 2012 13:51:11 GMT -5
I thought about two things 1.) It is a more significant boost Adam if Idol helps him to shift 20k more - that'd be a big difference, for example from 60k to 80k whilst the same boost wasn't significant for Carrie. She was selling pretty well anyway 2.) Also I have a feeling that Carrie is more of a household name and her fanbase is not so devoted. Her audience will not necessarily tune in for Idol to just to see her perform.You sure about that one? Not to veer off topic but I think the opposite is the case. Carrie's hardcore fan base is one of the most devoted of all today's contemporary artists. She and only a few others can be basically guaranteed almost any fan-voted awards. Fan votes may not correlate directly to viewership of her TV appearances, but she definitely has an extremely devoted fan base, as shown by her unusually high and consistent album sales, fan-voted awards, #1 singles, and massive tours. Carrie, Taylor Swift, and Justin Bieber fall into this category. Unless nominated against each other, they're almost guaranteed anything fan-voted. I think that reflects the opposite of what you said; "her fan base is not so devoted". These same fans are those who tune in to literally every appearance imaginable featuring their respected favorite. I agree with your first point, though. As I live far away I was just guessing. Good for her if she has built such a following of course.
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peterca
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Post by peterca on May 17, 2012 18:19:51 GMT -5
Current iTunes albums chart shows Adam at #3 and two Donna Summer albums in the top 20. Carrie is ahead of Adele.
RANK ARTIST TITLE 1 Various Artists - American Idol - Top 3 - Season 11 2 Tenacious D - Rize of the Fenix 3 Adam Lambert - Trespassing (Deluxe Version) 4 Beach House - Bloom 5 Garbage - Not Your Kind of People (Deluxe) 6 Glee Cast - Glee: The Music - The Graduation Album 7 Carrie Underwood - Blown Away 8 SMASH Cast - The Music of SMASH (Soundtrack) 9 ADELE - 21 10 Owl City - Shooting Star - EP 11 Various Artists- American Idol - Top 4 - Season 11 12 Gotye - Making Mirrors 13 Jack White - Blunderbuss 14 Donna Summer - On the Radio - Greatest Hits, Vol. 1 & 2 15 B.o.B - Strange Clouds 16 Willie Nelson - Heroes 17 Donna Summer - The Journey: The Very Best of Donna Summer 18 Fun. - Some Nights 19 Luke Bryan - Tailgates & Tanlines 20 Norah Jones - Little Broken Hearts
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on May 17, 2012 18:43:24 GMT -5
Where's Best Coast? Bummed that they aren't performing as well as Beach House appears to be; I like The Only Place quite a bit so far.
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pnobelysk
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Post by pnobelysk on May 17, 2012 19:03:00 GMT -5
Adele will be high 60s this week low 60s next week high 50s week after mid 50s low 50s high 40s low 40s high 30s low 30s not likley since adele has a special in june
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2012 19:21:38 GMT -5
With an appearance tonight on American Idol, we're giving Adam Lambert the edge for #1 next week. Idol alumni hold down two of the Top 3 as Sony Music lands a whopping seven titles in the Top 10. Adele will record her lowest total yet and still likely remain at #2. In its 65 weeks on the chart, 21 has only dipped below 100k twenty times. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:
*Adam Lambert (19/RCA) 70-75k Adele (XL/Columbia) 60-65k Carrie Underwood (19/Arista Nashville) 55-60k Now 42 (Capitol/EMI) 45-50k *Tenacious D (Columbia) 45-50k *Glee Cast: The Graduation (Columbia) 40-45k Lionel Richie (Mercury Nashville) 40-45k Norah Jones (Blue Note/EMI) 35-40k One Direction (Syco/Columbia) 30-35k Smash Cast (Columbia) 28-32k *Beach House (Sub Pop) 24-27k Jack White (Third Man/Columbia) 23-26k *Garbage (Stun Volume) 18-21k Gotye (Fairfax/Universal Republic) 18-21k Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville) 18-21k
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2012 19:22:38 GMT -5
Adam Lambert #1
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KMJ1
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Post by KMJ1 on May 17, 2012 19:56:19 GMT -5
Adam may get it but I still say its gonna be closer and not 100% gauranteed. Adele or Carrie could somehow barely beat him if his AI performance doesn't make that much of an impact. He'll get initial heavy front loaded sales but it wont last long. Theres NO hit single. Even if he gets #1, the #s are very lackluster and will drop like hot potato. Its looking like the recent Evanescence #1 debut situation (though I dunno how much they sold to date with their new album) but it went nowhere but down and is already forgotten. #1 is important but record companies need album sales and hit singles. W/ a 70kish 1st week, the album may not even go close to gold. Won't work for the record company regardless of the #1 debut.
Only the Madonnas, Mariahs, Beyonce and a select few others can get away w/ the front loaded #1s, get away with it lol and people will still be interested and eager for the next album lol. Adam Lambert isnt even remotely in the ballpark to their level. He needs a hit single/album soon (that sells) and its not looking that way.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2012 19:58:38 GMT -5
10K higher projection than #2 and 20K higher than #3, those are big numbers for this to be overturned this weekend. It has happened before but the one that did it, did it with a TV special
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KMJ1
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Post by KMJ1 on May 17, 2012 20:09:58 GMT -5
^ u mean Lionel Ritchie? Adam is just performing a song or two right? Big difference from an entire special
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KMJ1
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Post by KMJ1 on May 17, 2012 20:13:40 GMT -5
also the #s to look at are the 65kish (high end) for Adele possibly, vs. 70kish (low end) for Adam. Adam will prob. get the bulk of the sales early on while Adele will be consistent all week.Could be much closer and down to a razor thin margin (either way). Even Billboard was saying its looking favorable for Adam will get it but not a total done deal.
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Post by ListenToItTwice on May 17, 2012 20:16:44 GMT -5
These are some sad-ass numbers. Lionel's dropping off sharp; took him a while.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2012 20:19:50 GMT -5
^ u mean Lionel Ritchie? Adam is just performing a song or two right? Big difference from an entire special And projected to be #1 The post I was responding to said that Adele or Carrie would overtake What TV special do they have?
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asg4
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Post by asg4 on May 17, 2012 21:56:16 GMT -5
Every one is dropping like s**t. New releases r always front loaded and they have already taken that into account in the projections.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on May 17, 2012 22:07:02 GMT -5
John Mayer is out next week, it won't match the opening numbers of its predecessors but it should easily pass the six-figure mark even without a hit single.
Kris Allen is out next week too, although that will be lucky to go top ten. I don't know what else is coming?
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asg4
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Post by asg4 on May 17, 2012 22:11:17 GMT -5
John Mayer is out next week, it won't match the opening numbers of its predecessors but it should easily pass the six-figure mark even without a hit single. Kris Allen is out next week too, although that will be lucky to go top ten. I don't know what else is coming? 05.22.12 GARBAGE (PHYSICAL RELEASE) NOT YOUR KIND OF PEOPLE STUN VOLUME 05.22.12 HALEY REINHART LISTEN UP! 19/INTERSCOPE 05.22.12 JOHN MAYER BORN AND RAISED COLUMBIA 05.22.12 KIMBRA VOWS WARNER BROS. 05.22.12 KRIS ALLEN THANK YOU CAMELLIA 19/RCA 05.22.12 MERCYME HURT & THE HEALER FAIR TRADE/COLUMBIA 05.22.12 SLASH APOCALYPTIC LOVE DIK HAYD/EMI LABEL 05.22.12 THE CULT CHOICE OF WEAPON COOKING VINYL
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Post by areyoureadytojump on May 17, 2012 22:15:24 GMT -5
John Mayer is out next week, it won't match the opening numbers of its predecessors but it should easily pass the six-figure mark even without a hit single. Kris Allen is out next week too, although that will be lucky to go top ten. I don't know what else is coming? May 22, 2012 John Mayer - Born and Raised Haley Reinhart - Listen Up! Sade - Live The Cult - Choice Of Weapon Sara Bareilles - Once Upon Another Time Slash - Apocalyptic Love Kris Allen - Thank You Camellia Kimbra - Vows May 29, 2012 Scissor Sisters - Magic Hour Regina Spektor - What We Saw... Travis Porter - From Day 1 The Walkmen - Heaven Sigur Ros - Valtari June 5, 2012 Patti Smith - Banga Shawn Colvin - All Fall Down Alan Jackson - Thirty Miles West Brandi Carlile - Bear Creek Joe Walsh - Analog Man The Beach Boys - That's Why God..... Chris Robinson - Big Moon Ritual Eric Benet - The One Emeli Sandé - Our Version Of Events June 12, 2012 Usher - Looking For Myself Rush - Clockwork Angels Mary Chapin Carpenter - Ashes & Roses Metric - Synthetica Josh Turner - Punching Bag Ed Sheeran - + Waka Flocka Flame - Triple F Life June 19, 2012 Fiona Apple - The Idler Wheel... Smashing Pumpkins - Oceania Justin Bieber - Believe Lita Ford - Living Like A Runaway Kenny Chesney - Welcome To The Fishbowl Walk The Moon - Self Titled Juvenile - Rejuvenation June 26, 2012 Maroon 5 - Overexposed Linkin Park - Living Things R. Kelly - Write Me Back The Offspring - Days Go By Chris Rene - TBA Ashanti - Braveheart M.I.A. - TBA Aaron Lewis - The Road Wisin & Yandel - TBA July 3, 2012 Chris Brown - Fortune Flo Rida - Wild Ones 50 Cent - TBA July 10, 2012 Duran Duran - Diamond in the Mind (Live) Zac Brown - Uncaged July 17, 2012 Nas - Life Is Good Matisyahu - Spark Seeker Jennifer Lopez - Greatest Hits July 24, 2012 Cher Lloyd - TBA July 31, 2012 Rick Ross - God Forgives, I Don’t August 7, 2012 Trey Songz - Chapter 5 August 14, 2012 Rickie Lee Jones - TBA The-Dream - The Love, IV 2 Chainz - TBA August 21, 2012 The Darkness - Hot Cakes Lynyrd Skynyrd - Last of a Dying Breed August 28, 2012 Alanis Morissette - Havoc & Bright Lights Wiz Khalifa - ONIFC September 4, 2012 T.I. - Trouble Man September 11, 2012 Nelly Furtado - The Spirit Indestructible Akon - Stadium September 18, 2012 Green Day - Uno! Muse - TBA Ne-Yo - R.E.D. September 25, 2012 No Doubt - TBA
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on May 17, 2012 22:39:07 GMT -5
Adele with the big TV special will be #1 on week of June 5th.
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halo19
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Post by halo19 on May 18, 2012 2:56:55 GMT -5
Glad to see Garbage looking to be a Top 15 entry, even with separate iTunes and other releases. Honestly, I could see a week-2 increase, with it physically being available at all markets and even being available at other digital retail next week. It might not be much of an increase, but that still would be cool. There are probably a lot of Garbage fans who still buy physical more than digital, keeping in mind this is a band whose peak was in the latter half of the 90s, when CD sales were at a peak.
That said, John Mayer is clearly the #1 entry for next week.
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Post by when the pawn... on May 18, 2012 8:57:01 GMT -5
I'd really love to see Adam get a #1 album - I know the album will likely freefall in the next few weeks but how many Idol contestants get #1 albums on a 2nd album?
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snowflakes
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Post by snowflakes on May 18, 2012 9:49:43 GMT -5
I'm hoping Adam gets that #1 too but do we know for sure he's a lock. Any chance for Adele or Carrie to take it? Also are sales between now and Sunday already factored in the projection numbers? He's going to need his single to take off to sustain his album sales either that or the album gets some really good word of mouth that it takes off on it's on. I mean it can happen right? I see so many artists come out of nowhere without radio play only to have radio catch up later. The two singles released are good but they are the weakest of the album and neither one he wrote. I wish the labels would let these Idols do their thing especially someone like Adam. Neither singles "screams" Adam. *sigh*
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rosemoor
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Post by rosemoor on May 18, 2012 10:30:01 GMT -5
I don't know sara bareilles is having a new album coming out.
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asg4
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Post by asg4 on May 18, 2012 10:53:04 GMT -5
I'm hoping Adam gets that #1 too but do we know for sure he's a lock. Any chance for Adele or Carrie to take it? Also are sales between now and Sunday already factored in the projection numbers? He's going to need his single to take off to sustain his album sales either that or the album gets some really good word of mouth that it takes off on it's on. I mean it can happen right? I see so many artists come out of nowhere without radio play only to have radio catch up later. The two singles released are good but they are the weakest of the album and neither one he wrote. I wish the labels would let these Idols do their thing especially someone like Adam. Neither singles "screams" Adam. *sigh* They have a complex formula to come up with the projections uses a whole lot of demographic info and some modelling with i bet with some statistics and correlation I am sure some mathematician is coming up with the projections so they r fairly accurate but things can change sometimes so the sales thru the weekend r guestimated
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