Billboard Hot 100 06/09/12

[Deleted]

With "Maybe" up by 7% in overall Hot 100 points and "Somebody" down by 4%, Jepsen continues to narrow the gap between the chart's top two titles, likely setting up a closer battle for next week's No. 1 song.

Could we figure out the formula from this?

[Lozzy]

May 31, 2012 0:10:17 GMT -5 Codex said:

With "Maybe" up by 7% in overall Hot 100 points and "Somebody" down by 4%, Jepsen continues to narrow the gap between the chart's top two titles, likely setting up a closer battle for next week's No. 1 song.

Could we figure out the formula from this?

I tried.

6/2/12

"Call Me Maybe": 293,000 sales, 74 million audience, 989,000 streams
"Somebody That I Used To Know": 289,000 sales 137 audience, 1,200,000 streams

6/9/12

"Call Me Maybe": 301,000 sales, 86 million audience, 1,000,000 streams
"Somebody That I Used To Know": 264,000 sales, 138 million audience, 1,100,000 streams

"Call Me Maybe" up 7% in total chart points, "Somebody That I Used To Know" down 4%

------

assume chart formula is in form 'x = ad + be + cf' where;

'x' represents total chart points
'a' represents total sales points (assume 1 sale point = 1,000 sales)
'b' represents total airplay points (assume 1 airplay point = 1,000,000 impressions)
'c' represents 1,000 on-demand streams (assume 1 streaming point = 1,000 streams)
'd', 'e' and 'f' are coefficients of 'a', 'b' and 'c' respectively

301d + 86e + 1000f = 1.07 (293d + 74e + 989f)
301d + 86e + 1000f = 313.51d + 79.18e + 1058.23f (1)

264d + 138e + 1100f = 0.96 (289d + 137e + 1200f)
264d + 138e + 1100f = 277.44d + 131.52e + 1152f (2)

------

301d + 86e + 1000f = 313.51d + 79.18e + 1058.23f
301d - 313.51d = 79.18e - 86e + 1058.23f - 1000f
-12.51d = -6.82e + 58.23f
d = (58.23f - 6.82e)/-12.51 (3)

sub (3) into (2):

264((58.23f - 6.82e)/-12.51) + 138e + 1100f = 277.44((58.23f - 6.82e)/-12.51) + 131.52e + 1152f
(15372.72f - 1800.48e)/-12.51 + 138e + 1100f = (16155.3312f - 1892.1408e)/-12.51 + 131.52e + 1152f
(15372.72f - 1800.48e)/-12.51 - (16155.3312f - 1892.1408e)/-12.51 = 131.52e - 138e + 1152f - 1100f
(15372.72f - 1800.48e - 16155.3312f + 1892.1408e)/-12.51 = -6.48e + 52f
15372.72f - 1800.48e - 16155.3312f + 1892.1408e = -12.51(-6.48e + 52f)
91.6608e - 782.6112f = 81.0648e - 650.52f
91.6608e - 81.0648e = 782.6112f - 650.52f
10.596e = 132.0912f
e = 12.466138165345413f

sub 'e = 12.466138165345413f' back into (3):

d = (58.23f - 6.82(12.466138165345413f))/-12.51
d = (58.23f - 85.019062287655717f)/-12.51
d = (-26.789062287655717f)/-12.51
d = (26.789062287655717/12.51)f
d = 2.141411853529634f

so

d = 2.141411853529634f
e = 12.466138165345413f

now let's assume d = 1, in other words, sales points are NOT weighted, but airplay and streaming points are

1 = 2.141411853529634f
f = 0.466981630998131

e = 12.466138165345413 * 0.466981630998131
e = 5.821457532701054

so …

sales points are not weighted
airplay points are weighted by 5.821457532701054
streaming points are weighted by 0.466981630998131

x = a + 5.821457532701054b + 0.466981630998131c

------

let's test it out

"Call Me Maybe" for 6/9/12

x = 301 + 5.821457532701054 * 86 + 0.466981630998131 * 1000
x = 301 + 500.645347812290605 + 466.981630998131
x = 1268.626978810421605

"Call Me Maybe" for 6/2/12

x = 293 + 5.821457532701054 * 74 + 0.466981630998131 * 989
x = 293 + 430.787857419877996 + 461.844833057151559
x = 1185.632690477029555

1185.632690477029555 * 1.07 = 1268.626978810421605

the formula works for "Call Me Maybe"

"Somebody That I Used To Know" for 6/9/12

x = 264 + 5.821457532701054 * 138 + 0.466981630998131 * 1100
x = 264 + 803.361139512745452 + 513.6797940979441
x = 1581.040933610689552

"Somebody That I Used To Know" for 6/2/12

x = 289 + 5.821457532701054 * 137 + 0.466981630998131 * 1200
x = 289 + 797.539681980044398 + 560.3779571977572
x = 1646.917639177801598

1646.917639177801598 * 0.96 = 1581.040933610689552

the formula works for "Somebody That I Used To Know"

------

So, it looks like 'x = a + 5.821457532701054b + 0.466981630998131c' may be something to consider. There are three major faults (besides the fact that I could have easily messed up the math);

– It's highly unlikely that sales points are actually left unweighted. However, as Billboard haven't released the actual 'total chart points' figure for either of these songs (nor any other song ever that I can recall), there's no real way we can know what the actual figures look like. The important thing is that the coefficients of the airplay, sales and streaming totals (represented here as 'd', 'e' and 'f') are in the right ratio.

– This assumes that the chart formula is in the previously defined form 'x = ad + be + cf'. I expect that it is, as this form definitely makes the most sense, but it may be something totally different.

– And for the most obvious one - rounding. The sales, airplay, streaming and percentage increase figures that have been used in the above calculations were all rounded, as Billboard doesn't release exact figures for any of these. To work out an exact formula, it would be necessary to have exact figures. It would also be helpful to have more sets of figures to try this out with, but I don't recall Billboard ever publishing 'change of total chart points' figures before today.

[/size]
Make of that what you will.

[ListenToItTwice]

^ Most dedicated poster 2012. A fascinating read and incredibly worthy attempt.

[ListenToItTwice]

I am absolutely blown away by the success of "Lights" as a single. For me, seeing Ellie Goulding get a top 20 hit (#17 on the Hot 100 this week) is more surprising than seeing Adele get three #1s. Honestly. :O

[Deleted]

Billboard Hot 100

01 01 21 Gotye Featuring Kimbra, Somebody That I Used To Know
02 02 14 Carly Rae Jepsen, Call Me Maybe
03 03 06 Maroon 5 Featuring Wiz Khalifa, Payphone
04 04 23 Fun. Featuring Janelle Monae, We Are Young
05 05 15 Nicki Minaj, Starships
06 06 21 Flo Rida Featuring Sia, Wild Ones
07 07 15 One Direction, What Makes You Beautiful
08 08 20 The Wanted, Glad You Came
09 09 09 Justin Bieber, Boyfriend
10 NE 01 Phillip Phillips, Home

11 13 06 Rihanna, Where Have You Been
12 10 20 Train, Drive By
13 15 05 Usher, Scream
14 16 08 Pitbull, Back In Time
15 11 23 Kelly Clarkson, Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)
16 23 12 Karmin, Brokenhearted
17 22 23 Ellie Goulding, Lights
18 12 16 Calvin Harris, Feel So Close
19 20 13 Eric Church, Springsteen
20 14 15 Katy Perry, Part Of Me

21 17 28 Drake Featuring Rihanna, Take Care
22 24 13 Luke Bryan, Drunk On You
23 18 28 Drake Featuring Lil Wayne, The Motto
24 26 08 Kanye West, Big Sean, Pusha T, 2 Chainz, Mercy
25 30 07 David Guetta Featuring Sia, Titanium
26 21 24 Adele, Rumour Has It
27 25 14 Carrie Underwood, Good Girl
28 28 16 Kirko Bangz, Drank In My Cup
29 31 16 Kip Moore, Somethin' 'Bout A Truck
30 29 21 Jason Mraz, I Won't Give Up

31 32 14 Rihanna Featuring Chris Brown, Birthday Cake
32 27 14 Usher, Climax
33 36 19 Tyga Featuring Lil Wayne, Faded
34 19 08 Jennifer Lopez Featuring Pitbull, Dance Again
35 NE 01 Katy Perry, Wide Awake
36 34 36 Rihanna Featuring Calvin Harris, We Found Love
37 33 14 Jason Aldean, Fly Over States
38 35 39 Adele, Set Fire To The Rain
39 38 62 LMFAO Featuring Lauren Bennett & GoonRock, Party Rock Anthem
40 42 11 Neon Trees, Everybody Talks

41 41 07 Ca$hOut, Cashin Out
42 39 39 LMFAO, Sexy And I Know It
43 43 08 Demi Lovato, Give Your Heart A Break
44 72 08 Gloriana, (Kissed You) Good Night
45 40 35 Flo Rida, Good Feeling
46 54 11 Eli Young Band, Even If It Breaks Your Heart
47 37 26 David Guetta Featuring Nicki Minaj, Turn Me On
48 49 49 Maroon 5 Featuring Christina Aguilera, Moves Like Jagger
49 55 08 Nicki Minaj Featuring 2 Chainz, Beez In The Trap
50 56 12 Zac Brown Band, No Hurry

51 52 14 B.o.B, So Good
52 57 19 Tim McGraw, Better Than I Used To Be
53 53 11 Young Jeezy Featuring Ne-Yo, Leave You Alone
54 58 05 Wiz Khalifa, Work Hard, Play Hard
55 46 13 LoveRance Featuring IamSu & Skipper Or 50 Cent, UP !
56 65 09 Havana Brown Featuring Pitbull, We Run The Night
57 51 19 Miranda Lambert, Over You
58 64 18 Brantley Gilbert, You Don't Know Her Like I Do
59 60 08 Nicki Minaj Featuring Chris Brown, Right By My Side
60 45 10 Taylor Swift, Eyes Open

61 95 02 Gym Class Heroes Featuring Ryan Tedder, The Fighter
62 61 13 Travis Porter Featuring Tyga, Ayy Ladies
63 63 12 Drake Featuring Lil Wayne, HYFR (Hell Yeah F*****g Right)
64 67 14 Fun., Some Nights
65 59 02 Kenny Chesney, Come Over
66 73 03 Dierks Bentley, 5-1-5-0
67 48 09 Alex Clare, Too Close
68 70 06 Toby Keith, Beers Ago
69 66 06 Linkin Park, Burn It Down
70 71 08 DJ Khaled Featuring Chris Brown, Rick Ross, Nicki Minaj & Lil Wayne, Take It To The Head

71 69 08 Trey Songz, Heart Attack
72 68 15 Chris Brown, Turn Up The Music
73 62 03 2 Chainz Featuring Drake, No Lie
74 76 09 One Direction, One Thing
75 89 03 Calvin Harris Featuring Ne-Yo, Let's Go
76 NE 01 Lupe Fiasco, Around My Way (Freedom Ain't Free)
77 77 05 Hunter Hayes, Wanted
78 74 05 Grouplove, Tongue Tied
79 79 09 Josh Turner, Time Is Love
80 82 10 Drake Featuring The Weekend, Crew Love

81 91 04 B.o.B Featuring Taylor Swift, Both Of Us
82 81 08 Of Monsters And Men, Little Talks
83 78 12 M83., Midnight City
84 90 02 J. Cole Featuring Missy Elliott, Nobody's Perfect
85 88 04 Jana Kramer, Why Ya Wanna
86 87 03 The Band Perry, Postcard From Paris
87 84 08 Andy Grammer, Fine By Me
88 75 15 Rascal Flatts, Banjo
89 NE 01 Chris Brown, Don't Wake Me Up
90 NE 01 Jason Derülo, Undefeated

91 98 02 Love And Theft, Angel Eyes
92 97 04 Future, Same Damn Time
93 99 06 John Legend Featuring Ludacris, Tonight (Best You Ever Had)
94 80 18 Blake Shelton, Drink On It
95 100 02 Dustin Lynch, Cowboys And Angels
96 NE 01 Rita Ora, How We Do (Party)
97 NE 01 Phillip Phillips, We've Got Tonight
98 86 09 Chris Cagle, Got My Country On
99 94 09 Michel Teló, Ai Se Eu Te Pego
100 96 14 Skrillex Featuring Sirah, Bangarang

[Spidey]

There really needs to be a shake-up in the Top 10 of the Hot 100. It's really starting to get boring.

[kingofpain]

Well... at least Ellie Goulding is in the top 20 and I'm glad Havana Brown moved up :)

[Deleted]

May 31, 2012 10:07:49 GMT -5 Spidey said:

There really needs to be a shake-up in the Top 10 of the Hot 100. It's really starting to get boring.

Agreed.

I just noticed that the same 8 songs have been in the top 10 since 4/4/12 (fun's 5th week at #1). So that's 9 weeks in a row....

[Kishi KCM]

Yay for Michel Telo! =)

[Honeymoon]

Yeah aside from a few nice jumps and debuts (and by all accounts, with nearly 300k sold, Phillips should've easily been top five with the previous formula), this chart is a bore. Either streaming should be reduced or sales increased. You just can't ignore how massive sales are at the moment, the Hot 100 should reflect that to some degree. And with streaming such a big part of the component now, will "Party Rock Anthem", "Sexy and I Know It", "Moves Like Jagger" et all EVER go away?

[SPRΞΞ]

The On-Demand chart might be the reason the chart is so boring now.

[Deleted]

The lack of hot new releases is probably a better reason

[badrobot]

^I agree with 2m.

BTW, if you want boring charts, go back about 7-9 years when the Hot 100 looked nearly identical to the slow-moving airplay chart.

[Honeymoon]

May 31, 2012 11:05:18 GMT -5 badrobot said:

^I agree with 2m.

BTW, if you want boring charts, go back about 7-9 years when the Hot 100 looked nearly identical to the slow-moving airplay chart.

That was because there was very low single sales, physically or digitally, so there was not really a way for them to include them fairly in any substantial way. It's not really comparable to the situation of the current chart.

And I don't think it's because of a lack of new hits... "Where Have You Been" and "Scream", for example, would probably be top ten this week with the old formula. There's no way for knowing this for sure obviously but streaming (and airplay for that matter) do hinder the initial success of new hits, typically.

[Deleted]

Obviousy there are new releases every week. By "hits" I mean big enough to crack the top 10 on its own

Justin Bieber may do it next week

[Agent Yoncé]

I wonder if Usher will release his video now. He's so close to the Top 10 w/o one. Doesn't he have another performance happening?

[Deleted]

People were begging for streaming to be included, and now that it is, they're complaining it slows down the chart. Maybe the general public just doesn't move on from songs very quickly. The Hot 100 moved very quickly in the late 80s and it was an inaccurate mess. It might be more fun to watch a fast moving chart, but the components of the Hot 100 aren't exactly fast moving.

[Au$tin]

May 31, 2012 12:11:19 GMT -5 @jazzysoul47 said:

People were begging for streaming to be included, and now that it is, they're complaining it slows down the chart. Maybe the general public just doesn't move on from songs very quickly. The Hot 100 moved very quickly in the late 80s and it was an inaccurate mess. It might be more fun to watch a fast moving chart, but the components of the Hot 100 aren't exactly fast moving.

This exactly. The general public aren't like us music and chart fanatics. They see a song reach its peak and then get bored with it, because they don't notice if a song's peaked in popularity or not. I mean I still have friends who jam to "Rolling in the Deep" like it's the latest hot smash. And streaming really shows this. I do wish it were a bit quicker, and I think with more and more people discovering streaming and learning how to utilize the Internet to help them discover new music, eventually it will move much more swiftly than it does today.

[cesarams]

Slizzard. I'm your fan, want your autograph

[fridayteenage]

Party Rock Anthem went down this week...one whole spot. At this rate it'll be #1 or #2 on longest-charters ever.

[josh]

This chart includes sales from after the BBMAs. I figured PRA and SAIKI would be bulleted, but they weren't. Hopefully next week since sales have gone down they will both see big decreases. :)

[ListenToItTwice]

We can only hope. I think PRA has a somewhat clear shot at being the #2 longest-charter (thanks to the stability in airplay and, in turn, sales that its status as a new 'perennial summer hit' will bring it), but #1 is a long ways away.

[c0ldasfire]

I am very happy to see that "Titanium" is finally becoming a hit!

[Honeymoon]

May 31, 2012 12:11:19 GMT -5 @jazzysoul47 said:

People were begging for streaming to be included, and now that it is, they're complaining it slows down the chart. Maybe the general public just doesn't move on from songs very quickly. The Hot 100 moved very quickly in the late 80s and it was an inaccurate mess. It might be more fun to watch a fast moving chart, but the components of the Hot 100 aren't exactly fast moving.

It just depends on one's subjective interpretation of "popularity", doesn't it? I personally value sales info much more than I do airplay figures or streaming.

And Billboard does the same doesn't it? They remove songs that have logged 20+ weeks if they fall below #50 (assuming they don't collect enough points to make the top 50 again, they cannot re-enter or remain on the Hot 100). So I don't think there's a wrong or right way to do it. I just personally prefer a chart where sales are more influential and always have. You can probably guess that I wasn't a fan of the Hot 100 around '01-'04.

[cesarams]

May 31, 2012 17:47:33 GMT -5 ListenToItTwice said:

We can only hope. I think PRA has a somewhat clear shot at being the #2 longest-charter (thanks to the stability in airplay and, in turn, sales that its status as a new 'perennial summer hit' will bring it), but #1 is a long ways away.

I can't PRA will stay on hot 100 more than RITD. I mean, I loved PRA last summer but RITD it's miles and miles ahead of it.

[forg]

Good thing RITD smashed earlier and it was able to take the Billboard Yearend #1 otherwise PRA would have taken it and it would have been 4 consecutive years of dance songs on top but I do like PRA though, it's just fun song to be with a crowd like I Gotta Feeling and Low back in the day

Also props to Moves Like Jagger, still hanging on the chart

I'm Yours' longevity record is hard to beat since it didn't have the usual chart run as it stayed mostly low key during its early chart run before gaining new life.

And yeah the chart is static right now but good thing I like most of the songs in the top 10 so not complaining here that much. But definitely wish some newsongs climb already

Still sad Rumour Has It only peaked at #16. I wish it went to the top 10 at least

[Deleted]

May 31, 2012 19:47:58 GMT -5 forg said:

Good thing RITD smashed earlier and it was able to take the Billboard Yearend #1 otherwise PRA would have taken it and it would have been 4 consecutive years of dance songs on top but I do like PRA though, it's just fun song to be with a crowd like I Gotta Feeling and Low back in the day

On the next decade chart, the order will be reversed though

[neverduplicated]

May 31, 2012 10:37:53 GMT -5 Honeymoon said:

Either streaming should be reduced or sales increased. You just can't ignore how massive sales are at the moment, the Hot 100 should reflect that to some degree.

Considering how big sales are at the moment, they are reflected the most heavily of any compenent on the Hot 100. The number 1 song in airplay is "only" getting 138 points because of its airplay. The entire top 10 in digital sales got just about or more than that amount of points from sales, with the top song getting over 300 points. So I'd say sales count for a lot more than airplay. Which is why some songs that have virtually no airplay but have healthy sales can still do decently on the charts. As for streaming, I know we're all not totally certain how much it accounts for in chart points, but I think it's a good addition to the charts in terms of reflecting what's actually popular. 1 million people choosing to listen to a song through a subscription service should definitely be accounted for when judging what the most popular/successful song in the country is.

[Rodze]

If you're paying attention, you'll know sales have been heavily down-weighted.

[neverduplicated]

May 31, 2012 0:10:17 GMT -5 Codex said:

With "Maybe" up by 7% in overall Hot 100 points and "Somebody" down by 4%, Jepsen continues to narrow the gap between the chart's top two titles, likely setting up a closer battle for next week's No. 1 song.

Could we figure out the formula from this?

I've been doing some math based on this information, and it seems like the weighting could be...

Sales - 1 (per thousand sales)
Airplay - 3.24 (per million impressions)
Streaming - 1.29 (per ten thousand streams)

Using these numbers does make those percentage increases and decreases work, but we may need numbers for other songs before we could verify.