Billboard Hot 100: 07/21/12

[chartfreak]

That's what I use to say about Madonna.

[Oprah]

I just realized Rihanna is now the same age Madonna was when she debuted. Ain't that interesting!

[d.t.m]

Yas, RiDonna.

[Enigma.]

Jul 8, 2012 19:06:01 GMT -5 josh said:

Rihanna has flops somewhat frequently, but she has no problem bouncing right back from them.

Katy I think will flop at least once next era as well. A mix between Born This Way and Teenage Dream eras. Unless she sticks to very current radio friendly music, then she probably won't flop, although I don't see her getting a bunch of #1s again.

For Katy, it's practically impossible to repeat the success of TD era.

So there will be statements like "OMG only three #1's from her third album, she's so over!"

[weaver]

so...no airplay numbers for today?

[cesarams]

Only afternoon update today...

[cesarams]

MONDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 190.583 (+ 1.157)
2. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 183.325 (+ 1.092)
3. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 179.958 (- 0.891)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 156.939 (+ 0.088)
5. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 113.778 (+ 2.600) [/b]
6. USHER - Scream: 106.008 (+ 0.113)
7. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 104.047 (+ 1.380) ▲
8. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 103.406 (- 0.576) ▼
9. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 101.084 (+ 0.242)
10. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 93.658 (- 0.554)
11. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 89.459 (- 1.379)
12. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 84.800 (- 0.491)
13. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 75.093 (+ 0.685)
14. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 69.530 (- 0.185)
15. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 66.413 (+ 0.611)
16. TRAIN - Drive By: 64.876 (+ 0.066)
17. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 63.500 (+ 0.478)
18. BRANTLEY GILBERT - You Don't Know Her Like I Do: 63.068 (+ 0.997)
19. ELI YOUNG BAND - Even If It Breaks Your Heart: 62.147 (+ 0.234)
20. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 58.265 (+ 0.614)

OTHERS:

KENNY CHESNEY - Come Over: 56.453 (+ 0.787)
LUKE BRYAN - Drunk On You: 54.236 (- 1.166)
CA$H OUT - Cashin' Out: 51.693 (+ 0.143)
TREY SONGZ - Heart Attack: 48.361 (+ 0.343)
HAVANA BROWN - We Run The Night f/Pitbull: 45.781 (+ 0.199)
NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 45.428 (+ 0.237)
THE BAND PERRY - Postcard From Paris: 42.368
USHER - Lemme See f/Rick Ross: 41.123 (+ 0.290)
GYM CLASS HEROES - The Fighter f/Ryan Tedder: 40.717 (- 0.304)
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 39.287 (+ 0.146)
BLAKE SHELTON - Over: 38.669
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 33.339 (+ 0.192)
ONE DIRECTION - One Thing: 33.279 (+ 0.249)
FLO RIDA - Whistle: 27.385 (+ 1.394)
RITA ORA - How We Do (Party): 26.333 (+ 0.016)
OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 24.840 (+ 0.767)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 24.759 (+ 1.020)
PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 23.929 (+ 3.644)
B.O.B - Both Of Us f/Taylor Swift: 22.250 (+ 0.260)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 22.190 (+ 0.879)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 20.613 (+ 0.520)
LINKIN PARK - Burn It Down: 19.913 (- 0.175)
FUN. - Some Nights: 17.930 (+ 0.282)
CHRIS BROWN - Don't Wake Me Up: 10.174
BEYONCE - Dance For You: 6.532
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 4.336
MARINA AND THE DIAMONDS - Primadonna: 3.694
ALICIA KEYS - New Day: 3.436 (+ 0.211)
WILL. I. AM - This Is Love f/Eva Simons: 1.374
KELLY ROWLAND - Ice f/Lil Wayne: 0.176
LAUREN ALAINA - Eighteen Inches: 0.105

[Enigma.]

Blow Me is not selling well but glad it's getting nice radio support.

[Deleted]

KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 113.778 (+ 2.600)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 24.759 (+ 1.020)
PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 23.929 (+ 3.644)
BEYONCE - Dance For You: 6.532
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 4.336

I'm here for all of these.

[kingofpain]

Wow has Rihanna peaked?

[NeRD]

Payphone...

[ListenToItTwice]

Jul 9, 2012 13:23:00 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Blow Me is not selling well but glad it's getting nice radio support.

It'll start selling better once people realize that it exists.

[dlostfan]

Wide Awake is pretty impressive.... with the increase in sales, it has a shot at #3 this week.

Next week it might even aim for #1!

[dlostfan]

Predictions:

Song : Sales - Airplay

1. Call Me Maybe: 230k - 135M
2. Payphone: 190k - 138M
3. Wide Awake: 230k - 88M
4. Somebody That I Used to Know: 140k - 129M
5-6 Where Have You been - 100k - 114M
5-6 Lights - 150k - 73M

[NeRD]

^^^I would combine those posts. :)

[cesarams]

TUESDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 190.974 (+ 0.391)
2. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 184.197 (+ 0.872)
3. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 179.444 (- 0.514)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 156.989 (+ 0.050)
5. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 116.271 (+ 2.493)
6. USHER - Scream: 106.802 (+ 0.794)
7. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 105.443 (+ 1.396)
8. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 102.916 (- 0.490)
9. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 100.394 (- 0.690)
10. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 92.424 (- 1.234)
11. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 88.607 (- 0.852)
12. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 84.383 (- 0.417)
13. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 75.091 (- 0.002)
14. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 69.250 (- 0.280)
15. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 66.730 (+ 0.317)
16. TRAIN - Drive By: 65.349 (+ 0.473)
17. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 64.240 (+ 0.740)
18. BRANTLEY GILBERT - You Don't Know Her Like I Do: 62.391 (- 0.677)
19. ELI YOUNG BAND - Even If It Breaks Your Heart: 62.265 (+ 0.118)
20. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 58.923 (+ 0.658)

OTHERS:

KENNY CHESNEY - Come Over: 56.866 (+ 0.413)
CA$H OUT - Cashin' Out: 51.752 (+ 0.059)
TREY SONGZ - Heart Attack: 47.983 (- 0.378)
HAVANA BROWN - We Run The Night f/Pitbull: 46.166 (+ 0.385)
NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 45.637 (+ 0.209)
USHER - Lemme See f/Rick Ross: 41.814 (+ 0.691)
GYM CLASS HEROES - The Fighter f/Ryan Tedder: 40.393 (- 0.324)
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 39.641 (+ 0.354)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 33.826 (+ 0.487)
ONE DIRECTION - One Thing: 33.134 (- 0.145)
FLO RIDA - Whistle: 28.317 (+ 0.932)
PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 26.960 (+ 3.031) [/b]
RITA ORA - How We Do (Party): 26.326 (- 0.007)
OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 25.534 (+ 0.694)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 24.918 (+ 0.159)
B.O.B - Both Of Us f/Taylor Swift: 22.249 (- 0.001)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 22.210 (+ 0.020)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 21.255 (+ 0.642)
LINKIN PARK - Burn It Down: 19.874 (- 0.039)
FUN. - Some Nights: 18.144 (+ 0.214)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 4.077
ALICIA KEYS - New Day: 3.541 (+ 0.105)

[NeRD]

P!NK is coming. :)


My predictions:

1-2 Call Me Maybe
1-2 Payphone
3. Wide Awake
4. STIUTK
5. Lights
6. Where Have You Been


For some reason, I think CMM will continue to block Payphone from #1 indefinitely until some other song takes over. I think Wide Awake will be stuck at #3 for a couple weeks until Payphone and CMM's airplay decreases more. I see it having a pretty good chance at #1 around the end of this month, or the first of August. (Unless FloRida or P!nk reaches #1 on Itunes, or Ke$ha finally releases her damn single. )

[jebsib]

Why are so many people convinced Kesha's new song will have it in the bag? Is her track record that absolute?

[badrobot]

^First, I'm no Kesha fan, but there was a snippet of her song that sounded quite good a little while ago, plus the dearth of new material from other artists, plus the fact that her track record has been quite remarkable (I mean, she sings on the 2 songs with the highest 1-week digital sales totals, plus her last lead single debuted at #1, which is still quite rare) -- I think it's safe to assume her new song stands a very huge chance of going to #1.

[Living Legend]

I think Carly will spend a 5th week at #1. Then next week it will be a close battle between Carly & Katy.

[Deleted]

Retro Top 10's this week

1 year ago (7/23/11)

1 1 Party Rock Anthem - LMFAO ft. Lauren Bennett & GoonRock (2nd week of 6 @ #1)
2 2 Give Me Everything - Pitbull ft. Ne-Yo, AfroJack & Nayer
3 3 Rolling In The Deep - Adele
4 4 Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F.) - Katy Perry
5 5 Super Bass - Nicki Minaj
6 6 The Edge Of Glory - Lady Gaga
7 8 How To Love - Lil' Wayne
8 9 Good Life - OneRepublic
9 10 Tonight Tonight - Hot Chelle Rae
10 7 E.T. - Katy Perry ft. Kanye West


5 years ago (7/21/07)

1 1 Umbrella - Rihanna ft. Jay-Z (7th and final week @ #1)
2 3 Hey There Delilah - Plain White T's
3 4 Big Girls Don't Cry - Fergie
4 2 Party Like A Rockstar - Shop Boyz
5 5 Buy U A Drank (Shawty Snappin') - T-Pain ft. Yung Joc
6 6 The Way I Are - Timbaland ft. Keri Hilson
7 7 Makes Me Wonder - Maroon 5
8 13 A Bay Bay - Hurricane Chris
9 11 Big Things Poppin' (Do It) - T.I.
10 14 Bartender - T-Pain ft. Akon


10 years ago (7/20/02)

1 1 Hot In Herre - Nelly (4th week of 7 @ #1)
2 2 Without Me - Eminem
3 3 Hero - Chad Kroeger ft. Josey Scott
4 7 Complicated - Avril Lavigne
5 9 I Need A Girl (Part Two) - P Diddy & Ginuwine ft. Loon, Mario Winans & Tammy Ruggeri
6 4 Oh Boy - Cam'ron ft. Juelz Santana
7 6 The Middle - Jimmy Eat World
8 8 A Thousand Miles - Vanessa Carlton
9 5 Foolish - Ashanti
10 11 I'm Gonna Be Alright - Jennifer Lopez ft. Nas


15 years ago (7/19/97)

1 1 I'll Be Missing You - Puff Daddy ft. Faith Evans & 112 (6th week of 11 @ #1)
2 2 Bitch - Meredith Brooks
3 4 Return Of The Mack - Mark Morrison
4 3 MMMBop - Hanson
5 5 Look Into My Eyes - Bone Thugs-N-Harmony
6 10 Quit Playing Games (With My Heart) - Backstreet Boys
7 12 It's Your Love - Tim McGraw & Faith Hill
8 7 Say You'll Be There - Spice Girls
9 9 Do You Know (What It Takes) - Robyn
10 8 Sunny Came Home - Shawn Colvin


Hot 100 Airplay from 15 years ago

1 1 Sunny Came Home - Shawn Colvin (2nd week of 4 @ #1)
2 2 MMMBop - Hanson
3 4 Semi-Charmed Life - Third Eye Blind

[josh]

A year after being #1 and LMFAO's about to fall off the charts.

[jgizzle89]

Ke$ha won't go #1 in her first week because it's impossible with this new system. She would need to sell something like 500k...

[josh]

But keep in mind that labels learned something with "Boyfriend" only making #2. They learned that you need streaming, so if they are intent on debuting at #1, they need to release and push at streaming as well as radio and iTunes/Amazon/etc.

We haven't seen a REALLY big debut since "Boyfriend," so we don't know if it's truly possible or not. The big real test will be Ke$ha and Gaga's debuts, seeing how much they sell, how big airplay gets right away, and how much/if they send to streaming right away or not.

[brucelover]

Jul 10, 2012 12:31:20 GMT -5 josh said:

But keep in mind that labels learned something with "Boyfriend" only making #2. They learned that you need streaming, so if they are intent on debuting at #1, they need to release and push at streaming as well as radio and iTunes/Amazon/etc.

We haven't seen a REALLY big debut since "Boyfriend," so we don't know if it's truly possible or not. The big real test will be Ke$ha and Gaga's debuts, seeing how much they sell, how big airplay gets right away, and how much/if they send to streaming right away or not.

Didn't "Payphone" sell something ridiculous like 480k? Almost as much as Boyfriend.

[NeRD]

Jul 10, 2012 13:59:29 GMT -5 brucelover said:

Jul 10, 2012 12:31:20 GMT -5 josh said:

But keep in mind that labels learned something with "Boyfriend" only making #2. They learned that you need streaming, so if they are intent on debuting at #1, they need to release and push at streaming as well as radio and iTunes/Amazon/etc.

We haven't seen a REALLY big debut since "Boyfriend," so we don't know if it's truly possible or not. The big real test will be Ke$ha and Gaga's debuts, seeing how much they sell, how big airplay gets right away, and how much/if they send to streaming right away or not.

Didn't "Payphone" sell something ridiculous like 480k? Almost as much as Boyfriend.

But Gotye sold well over 500k that same week with more streaming and airplay.

[badrobot]

Debuting at #1 is hard, but it's quite possible someone like Kesha could get to it in week 2.

[dlostfan]

Next week I could see WA selling 40-50k more than CMM. And by then the Airplay gap will be reduced to 30-35M. So it is more or less upto streaming. CMM still has the upper hand but WA has a realistic chance, especially if it extends its lead in digital sales during the course of the week.

As for Payphone, I feel like it will get the record or something for weeks in Top-3 or something but won't be able to reach #1. It will need a significant push within 2-3 weeks if it wants to get there.

[SPRΞΞ]

On last week's write up, Carly had 131M, and Rihanna had 110M. Let's say Katy had 100M. As of right now, it would seem to me that sales and airplay between the two will cancel out, and then it comes down to streaming, in which Carly is ahead, and obviously #1 again. I think as long as Katy keep gaining on airplay, and stays ahead of her on sales, it will always come down to streaming. I'm not sure what is going to dethrone her at this point. It could be none of the current songs, because the songs that are surging in sales, have low airplay and low streaming. In all reality, Carly could pull a 10-week #1 sprint, cuz even with No Doubt, streaming and airplay will be too low. You need to be high on all 3 at this point. You can't disregard streaming, and that takes awhile, even if downloads and initial airplay are strong.

[SPRΞΞ]

Jul 10, 2012 12:31:20 GMT -5 josh said:

But keep in mind that labels learned something with "Boyfriend" only making #2. They learned that you need streaming, so if they are intent on debuting at #1, they need to release and push at streaming as well as radio and iTunes/Amazon/etc.

We haven't seen a REALLY big debut since "Boyfriend," so we don't know if it's truly possible or not. The big real test will be Ke$ha and Gaga's debuts, seeing how much they sell, how big airplay gets right away, and how much/if they send to streaming right away or not.

Even if Gaga debuts huge, her streaming will be zero. I think #1 debuts are history. Streaming just makes up too much of the equation.