jughead
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Post by jughead on Oct 27, 2012 7:35:48 GMT -5
I assume you mean Carrie, in which case, can we STOP MAKING THIS CARRIE VS. TAYLOR? Come ON. I was actually referring to Mr. Aldean. Sorry about the confusion. Btw, I am also a huge Carrie fan. :)
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Oct 27, 2012 7:40:40 GMT -5
I assume you mean Carrie, in which case, can we STOP MAKING THIS CARRIE VS. TAYLOR? Come ON. I was actually referring to Mr. Aldean. Sorry about the confusion. Btw, I am also a huge Carrie fan. :) Thanks for clarifying. I'm sorry I was twitchy. Regardless, pointing out that Taylor is outselling pretty much anybody is ... kind of redundant. Because of course she is.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Oct 27, 2012 10:01:26 GMT -5
Billboard is reporting opening week's sales for Red at 1.1 million. How this compares to other Taylor Swift opening weeks: 1. Taylor Swift-2006-39,000 2. Fearless-2008-592,000 3. Speak Now-2010-1.04 million 4. Red-2012-1.1 million
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Oct 27, 2012 13:25:32 GMT -5
I was hoping they meant Big & Rich... ;)
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Oct 28, 2012 18:20:12 GMT -5
I decided to look at gaps between Taylor's country singles peaking on radio:
Late Jan 07 7 months Late Aug 07 4 months Late Dec 07 5 months Late May 08 3 months Late Aug 08
3 months Late Nov 08 4.5 months Early Apr 09 4.5 months Late Aug 09 3.5 months Early Dec 09 3.5 months Late March 10
7.5 months Early Nov 10 4 months Early Mar 11 3.5 months Late June 11 5 months Late Nov 11 4 months Late Mar 12
7 months Late Oct 12
It seems like she usually has about 4 months between singles. I wonder what the chances are of Girls Like Us interrupting the usual schedule, her waiting an extra year between albums, and her releasing extra singles beyond her usual 5 are. These would be connected events.
Shania waited a long time after Come On Over and was able to get 8 T10s from that album.
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matty1122
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Post by matty1122 on Oct 28, 2012 18:41:39 GMT -5
Shania didn't get eight Top 10's from "Up." I think you're thinking of her break between "The Woman In Me" and "Come On Over."
This song is wonderful and the video is perfect. The lines, "I think it's strange that you think I'm funny, 'cause he never did," really hit home. I hope this goes to #1 because it deserves to.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 23:13:19 GMT -5
Changing the subject a little, I'd really like a jhomes87 analyzes of where is this going! Haha she's just awesome at it. I'm hopeful this will go #1 and prove that there's no backlash from country radio. I was out of town for the weekend, just getting back recently, so I didn't see this post 'til now. First, thanks for the compliment. Second, I'll see what I can do. Usually I keep track of the day-to-day numbers for everyone to see how the next chart will shape up, but I had no computer access for the last few days and have a bunch of other non Pulse stuff (homework, lol) to get caught up on. Plus, the numbers this week went crazy with a panel change on Mediabase, so that always makes predictions tricky. I think I can come up with a good long term guess for this song, as to how it will do or when/where it might peak, and post it sometime in the next day or two. Right now, all I can say is that it's looking pretty good so far. I think if country radio didn't want to play Taylor (because of WANEGBT kinda being forced on them, and the album leaning more towards the pop genre), we would've seen it by now. And by that, I mean we would've probably seen "Begin Again" get off to a slow start and maybe only be in the 28-30 range or so. But it's looking good so far, and I think she'll get back to her usual top 5 peak with this. Getting to #1 is a definite possibility as well.
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Nov 4, 2012 14:46:54 GMT -5
No I was talking about Come On Over having 8 T10s on country. Thus why I namechecked Come On Over. There were 5 years between Come on Over and her next album. So Come on Over.
Does anyone have a list of Taylor's Mediabase country peak positions?
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Nov 5, 2012 3:42:33 GMT -5
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Nov 9, 2012 10:44:54 GMT -5
Latest Mediabase 7-day-rolling info:
17 17 TAYLOR SWIFT Begin Again 3308 2998 310 25.937
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on Nov 19, 2012 15:30:30 GMT -5
Up to #13 on Mediabase.
Any guesses on when this will enter the top 10?
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Eloqueen™
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Nov 21, 2012 14:24:04 GMT -5
This lost in both spins and audience today (to cap off a rather abysmal week of updates). This is baffling to me for two reasons: callout scores for the song are great (ranked #2 on this week's Billboard's Bullseye Callout chart) and the song's a clear return to form of what country radio typically loves from her. Surely they aren't holding a grudge because she's more actively branching out into different formats? That would be incredibly backward of programmers. And if even it's due to the distaste held by most for the first single, that still reaks of ridiculousness. What's the situation here? Hmmm.
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Post by countrygirl918 on Nov 21, 2012 15:04:58 GMT -5
Overexposure, maybe? I know plenty of people who are simply tired of hearing and seeing Taylor everywhere. Maybe country radio is as well. I do think it could partially be ramifications of releasing a country remix of her first single from this album, too, which was certainly a slap in the face to what was supposed to be her main format. Perhaps it is a "grudge" against that, as you suggested, although I don't think that would be the only reason.
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Eloqueen™
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Nov 21, 2012 15:08:00 GMT -5
I wouldn't think this would be the case though (especially considering there are a handful of artists who arguably over-saturate country radio more so than Taylor).
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Post by strikeleo on Nov 21, 2012 15:58:03 GMT -5
I don't think we can make much of it yet. Probably just a bump in the road, if the pattern continues throughout next week then I'd say this is peaking, but from what I've gathered, songs sort of slow down before making their way to the top 10 (I recall Carrie's Good Girl did the same).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 16:15:54 GMT -5
I do think that radio might be a little hesitant, just because by now they all know the material on Red, and this is as country as it gets. But, this one's hardly in trouble. It has slowed down, sure, but I think the biggest reason is simply the congestion on the chart right now. Brad Paisley's lead single "Southern Comfort Zone" has come screeching to a halt, and the same goes for Kenny Chesney's wonderful "El Cerrito Place". So there are other format stars that are really struggling right now. Dierks Bentley's "Tip It On Back" is also moving slower down in the teens, and he's coming off 3 consecutive #1 hits. Darius Rucker put 6 of his first 7 singles into the top 3, but lead single "True Believers" is off the pace a bit.
On the flip side, we've had a coupe new acts break through in a big way (Florida Georgia Line and Kip Moore come to mind, and Greg Bates as well), and now radio is welcoming back Gary Allan in a big way, too. Plus, Randy Houser has suddenly started screaming up the chart, and he really looked like a 1-hit wonder to me, having not been this high on the chart since early 2009 (he only had 1 top 15 hit--the #2 "Boots On").
I never thought "Begin Again" was a slam dunk #1 from the start. I do think Taylor's current career trajectory (reaching out so strongly to pop radio) may have some negative results. And then there's also the 'strength' of the chart to take into consideration. But I'm sure this will go at least top 10. I just don't know how any other singles from the album will do.
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Eloqueen™
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Nov 21, 2012 17:19:10 GMT -5
I do think that radio might be a little hesitant, just because by now they all know the material on Red, and this is as country as it gets. But, this one's hardly in trouble. It has slowed down, sure, but I think the biggest reason is simply the congestion on the chart right now. Brad Paisley's lead single "Southern Comfort Zone" has come screeching to a halt, and the same goes for Kenny Chesney's wonderful "El Cerrito Place". So there are other format stars that are really struggling right now. Dierks Bentley's "Tip It On Back" is also moving slower down in the teens, and he's coming off 3 consecutive #1 hits. Darius Rucker put 6 of his first 7 singles into the top 3, but lead single "True Believers" is off the pace a bit. On the flip side, we've had a coupe new acts break through in a big way (Florida Georgia Line and Kip Moore come to mind, and Greg Bates as well), and now radio is welcoming back Gary Allan in a big way, too. Plus, Randy Houser has suddenly started screaming up the chart, and he really looked like a 1-hit wonder to me, having not been this high on the chart since early 2009 (he only had 1 top 15 hit--the #2 "Boots On"). I never thought "Begin Again" was a slam dunk #1 from the start. I do think Taylor's current career trajectory (reaching out so strongly to pop radio) may have some negative results. And then there's also the 'strength' of the chart to take into consideration. But I'm sure this will go at least top 10. I just don't know how any other singles from the album will do. Love how you do what you do. Thanks for that!
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McCreerian
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Post by McCreerian on Nov 21, 2012 18:53:06 GMT -5
"Stay Stay Stay" is as Country as it gets from "Red." Thats really the only thing on the album that can stand alongside "Mean" and "Our Song."
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Nov 21, 2012 22:37:50 GMT -5
I think this will still be a pretty big country airplay hit for her yet, and that the slowdown is more due to the chart congestion. I mean, we're seeing a lot of singles in the same boat as her right now. This song has done pretty well thus far though, so I'm not worried. I'm really hoping for a No. 1 hit from this one, because it may wind up being a bit of an underperforming era at country radio for her (though I see a few more obvious single choices including I Almost Do, Stay x3, and All Too Well).
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Nov 22, 2012 1:23:53 GMT -5
After listening to Taylor's album many times now, I think she has a few solid country hits on there. "Stay Stay Stay" is certain for country radio, "I Almost Do" would work, and a Target track such as "Come Back...Be Here" also has potential. I have a feeling she will release "Red" to both pop and country... maybe she'll give it a country edit? I could see her having 5 country top 10 hits from this album though.
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on Nov 22, 2012 9:52:02 GMT -5
After listening to Taylor's album many times now, I think she has a few solid country hits on there. "Stay Stay Stay" is certain for country radio, "I Almost Do" would work, and a Target track such as "Come Back...Be Here" also has potential. I have a feeling she will release "Red" to both pop and country... maybe she'll give it a country edit? I could see her having 5 country top 10 hits from this album though. Agreed. My perfect era (ignoring WANEGBT): 01. Begin Again 02. Red (maybe remove the "red" echo in an edit) 03. I Almost Do (or All Too Well if they can make a good radio edit) 04. Stay Stay Stay 05. Come Back... Be Here Alternate singles could include Treacherous or Everything Has Changed if they want to promote the tour, although the latter could be risky.
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peterca
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Post by peterca on Nov 22, 2012 11:37:03 GMT -5
I wonder how many tracks will be released. Five to Pop and five to Country?
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on Nov 22, 2012 11:39:26 GMT -5
^ Around there, yeah. The pop singles could go:
01. We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together 02. I Knew You Were Trouble. 03. Red (I feel like they'll need to give this a pop remix for it to work) 04. 22 05. Holy Ground/Starlight/Everything Has Changed
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2012 12:33:56 GMT -5
^ Around there, yeah. The pop singles could go: 01. We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together 02. I Knew You Were Trouble. 03. Red (I feel like they'll need to give this a pop remix for it to work) 04. 22 05. Holy Ground/Starlight/Everything Has Changed "Red" needs a pop mix? It sounds pretty pop already to me.
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on Nov 22, 2012 12:37:23 GMT -5
^ It's just as country as anything from Speak Now (other than Mean), IMO. And all the singles they released from that to pop failed.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Nov 22, 2012 13:18:52 GMT -5
^ It's just as country as anything from Speak Now (other than Mean), IMO. And all the singles they released from that to pop failed. Which songs were pop singles – did they ever try releasing "Better Than Revenge" to pop radio?
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on Nov 22, 2012 13:34:49 GMT -5
^ It's just as country as anything from Speak Now (other than Mean), IMO. And all the singles they released from that to pop failed. Which songs were pop singles – did they ever try releasing "Better Than Revenge" to pop radio? Mine and Back To December both peaked at #11 or #12, and Story of Us peaked at #21. After SOU flopped they gave up on pop for the rest of the era (I maintain they should have at least tried with Sparks Fly, but alas).
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Nov 22, 2012 13:42:03 GMT -5
I'm surprised they would release "Mean" to pop radio – that seemed like the 'most country' song on the album. Songs like "Better Than Revenge" seemed to me like they would be more likely to succeed on pop radio. (That one reminded me of Avril)
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on Nov 22, 2012 13:43:50 GMT -5
^ Oops, meant Mine, not Mean. I agree BTR could have worked as a pop single. But then again I thought SOU would do well too and it didn't.
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peterca
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Post by peterca on Nov 23, 2012 11:09:44 GMT -5
This song has been flat all week. If it doesn't move soon, its gonna get steamrolled by The Band Perry and Jason Aldean as both songs have gained about 4 million AIs this week already.
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