Billboard Hot 100: 01/05/13

[hitseeker.]

Dec 27, 2012 19:05:39 GMT -5 ListenToItTwice said:

^ CMM must have, right? Otherwise what's it doing on Single Sales?

Lol you're right, I didn't explain myself quite clearly; I forgot to add that there must be one sorry

[Rodze]

Who said VEVO counts for the Hot 100?

[kingofpain]

Ugh it's painful to see Swedish House Mafia sitting at 11... I will have a stroke if it doesn't crack the top 10. It had a better digital sales week last week where it actually sat around 11/12. Now it's gone down to around 18/19. It's like what it makes up for in airplay gains, it loses in sales!!!

I also feel the same about Pink's "Try". It's so close to the top 10 but it's airplay gains are hurt by it's digital sales which keep falling. I wonder if both these songs will get screwed?

And will Gotye be able to survive one more week to make it 52 weeks on the Hot 100????

[chartfreak]

Remember just because songs fall on Itunes after Christmas..doesn't mean there sales have dropped.

[Deleted]

Dec 27, 2012 20:24:06 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

Dec 27, 2012 20:19:40 GMT -5 @14887fan said:

So "Home" has now sold over 3 million units. Will it pass "Stronger" to become the the biggest-selling Idol release ever?

I wouldn't be surprised. With the freeze over, it's gaining like crazy on AC and is still rising on POP. Not to mention it has great airplay during the week of gift cards, so could easily sell another 200k+ in next weeks chart and even without it, it was still selling close to or over 100k/wk. I think it'll pass Kelly quite easily.

Not to mention the exposure it will probably get when Idol starts - I can't imagine Idol not making mention of it or playing it in at least one audition episode, and of course he'll be in a prominent position on the wall of winners. Yeah, I'd say another million plus change in 2013 should be very easy for him to accomplish. I've been so surprised and impressed with Phillips' success.

[pnobelysk]

Dec 27, 2012 20:19:40 GMT -5 @14887fan said:

So "Home" has now sold over 3 million units. Will it pass "Stronger" to become the the biggest-selling Idol release ever?

Nope call me maybe ;)

[pnobelysk]

Dec 27, 2012 21:43:18 GMT -5 kingofpain said:

Ugh it's painful to see Swedish House Mafia sitting at 11... I will have a stroke if it doesn't crack the top 10. It had a better digital sales week last week where it actually sat around 11/12. Now it's gone down to around 18/19. It's like what it makes up for in airplay gains, it loses in sales!!!

I also feel the same about Pink's "Try". It's so close to the top 10 but it's airplay gains are hurt by it's digital sales which keep falling. I wonder if both these songs will get screwed?

And will Gotye be able to survive one more week to make it 52 weeks on the Hot 100????

Goyte will Likley survive since it's getting big airplay gains thanks to countdowns

[kylecburke]

Dec 28, 2012 11:05:01 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

Dec 27, 2012 20:19:40 GMT -5 @14887fan said:

So "Home" has now sold over 3 million units. Will it pass "Stronger" to become the the biggest-selling Idol release ever?

Nope call me maybe ;)

THANK YOU! ughh people forget that and it drives ME!

[imbondz]

No Canadian Idol is not the same. If you're going to include cmm when discussing idol news/charts you'd need to include Australian idol, Sweden idol, Zimbabwe idol...etc

[Deleted]

Might as well include UK X-Factor. Home still has to beat Bleeding Love (and possibly What Makes You Beautiful? I forget how much that has sold.) xD

[kylecburke]

Dec 28, 2012 13:16:26 GMT -5 imbondz said:

No Canadian Idol is not the same. If you're going to include cmm when discussing idol news/charts you'd need to include Australian idol, Sweden idol, Zimbabwe idol...etc

Why isn't Canadian Idol the same, and I agree they should all be included. The poster may not have meant it but they stated "biggest-selling Idol release ever" Not American, "IDOL" release and Carly Rae was a finalist on Canadian Idol!.

However the poster above stating may as well include X Factor...Why would we? Those are 2 different shows so no...when stating "biggest-selling Idol release ever" we should not include Xfactor finalists for reasons I shouldn't have to state lol

[Deleted]

Canadian Idol and American Idol are two different shows as well, though.

[badrobot]

Dec 27, 2012 21:39:05 GMT -5 Rodze said:

Who said VEVO counts for the Hot 100?

Billboard did, awhile ago, as part of the passive streaming chart.

Also I'm not sure that "fan videos" don't count. YouTube analyzes the music in every video upload and is able to identify if you are using copyrighted material. If they are able to track that info then it would seem likely that they can also report streaming data for fan videos. It's possible YouTube pays a very minimal sum to labels for play of songs, even if they are uploaded by fans rather than the label. Don't know if Billboard incorporates it, though.

Generally speaking, "the opportunity to move up one spot on the Hot 100" is not a very motivating factor for a record label to be hunting down fan videos on YouTube, particularly considering how popular lip-dubs and such have become, which ultimately help most songs as essentially free promo.

[kylecburke]

Dec 28, 2012 14:11:49 GMT -5 @gagalicious said:

Canadian Idol and American Idol are two different shows as well, though.

Yes they are, and its debatable to compare all "Idols" so to end the confusion "Home" may become the most successful release from a AMERICAN Idol finalist :) haha

[¤ Matthea ¤]

Dec 28, 2012 14:11:49 GMT -5 @gagalicious said:

Canadian Idol and American Idol are two different shows as well, though.

Different shows, the same franchise.

[Rodze]

Dec 28, 2012 14:15:29 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Dec 27, 2012 21:39:05 GMT -5 Rodze said:

Who said VEVO counts for the Hot 100?

Billboard did, awhile ago, as part of the passive streaming chart.

Do you have a link? I don't really remember.

Even in the recent 2012 year-end charts there's no mention of VEVO or Youtube videos.

Maybe it counted for a short period but not anymore?

[Au$tin]

Dec 27, 2012 21:43:18 GMT -5 kingofpain said:

Ugh it's painful to see Swedish House Mafia sitting at 11... I will have a stroke if it doesn't crack the top 10. It had a better digital sales week last week where it actually sat around 11/12. Now it's gone down to around 18/19. It's like what it makes up for in airplay gains, it loses in sales!!!

I also feel the same about Pink's "Try". It's so close to the top 10 but it's airplay gains are hurt by it's digital sales which keep falling. I wonder if both these songs will get screwed?

Nearly all songs are going to see sales increases this week, so there shouldn't be any worry about DYWC falling a few spots on iTunes. A number of songs in front of it will be falling quickly soon once the Christmas Rush is over. And airplay gains are everywhere this time of the year, so don't worry about them either. Both it and "Try" are definitely going top ten once everything returns to normal in about two weeks.

Also, Gotye should be able to stay an extra week on the Hot 100. His sales will go up too, and his airplay will benefit tremendously this week because of all the year-end countdowns from the 59503475023 formats he crossed over into.

[HolidayGuy]

Just got it confirmed- VEVO currently is not part of the streaming component of the Hot 100. Billboard hopes it, as well as YouTube, will contribute in the future. That fake-view issue, though, is something to be cautious of.

Billboard previews next week's Digital Songs:

www.billboard.com/news/taylor-swift-leads-gift-card-fueled-digital-1008063442.story?utm_source=most_recent#/news/taylor-swift-leads-gift-card-fueled-digital-1008063442.story?utm_source=most_recent

Taylor Swift Leads Gift Card-Fueled Digital Song Sales Surge
by Keith Caulfield, L.A. | December 28, 2012

The yearly post-Christmas digital song sales surge is in full effect this week, with a number of tunes aiming for monster sales figures.

Consumers redeeming download gift cards received for Christmas are spurring huge increases for a variety of songs. Based on sales data from industry sources, Billboard forecasts that perhaps six songs could sell more than 300,000 downloads in the tracking week that ends on Sunday, Dec. 30.

Taylor Swift's "I Knew You Were Trouble" is shaping up to be the biggest beneficiary of gift card downloads, as it could sell somewhere in the range of 525,000 to 575,000. Sources have suggested that around 200,000 of that figure was registered on Christmas Day alone. Last week (ending Dec. 23), "Trouble" sold 221,000 according to Nielsen SoundScan and ranked at No. 2 on Billboard's Digital Songs chart.

"Trouble" should easily jump back to No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart next week with the largest sales frame for a song since August. That month, Swift's own "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" bowed with 623,000 sold.

"Trouble's" forecasted figure -- like all others projected in this story -- could change drastically by the end of the week. As many songs saw huge bursts of gains on Christmas Day, we'll have to wait and see if many of them sustain their popularity through the week.

That said, another title in the hunt for a 300,000-plus week is Bruno Mars' current Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 single "Locked Out of Heaven." The cut could sell maybe 425,000 to 450,000. (Up from 226,000 last week.) At the present, "Locked" seems like it will hold at No. 1 on the Hot 100 next week, even if Swift's "Trouble" sells as well as we're hearing. "Locked's" Hot 100 airplay lead over "Trouble" is still quite wide and "Trouble" has yet to become available to streaming services. (The Hot 100 blends sales, airplay and streaming data to determine its rankings.)

Also expected to move major units this week: the Lumineers' "Ho Hey" (350,000 to 375,000), Justin Bieber's "Beauty and a Beat" (featuring Nicki Minaj) (340,000 to 380,000), Rihanna's "Diamonds" (300,000 to 350,000) and PSY's resurgent "Gangnam Style" (325,000 to 375,000). Last week, the titles sold a respective 149,000; 119,000; 141,000 and 116,000.

Unlike this year, where all of the gift card impact will be housed in a single SoundScan tracking week, last year's holiday haul was dispersed over two weeks. As Christmas fell on a Sunday in 2011 (the final day in SoundScan's tracking week), we saw sales bumps in both the week ending Dec. 25, 2011 and Jan. 1, 2012.

In the week ending Dec. 25, 2011, there was just one song that sold more than 300,000: LMFAO's "Sexy and I Know It" (395,000; up 159% compared to the previous week). The next-biggest sellers were Katy Perry's "The One That Got Away" (297,000; up 157%), Rihanna's "We Found Love" (276,000; up 86%) and Bruno Mars' "It Will Rain" (266,000; up 112%). Overall digital song volume that week stood at 38.25 million (up 70%).

The next week, the major impact of downloads cards were felt, as many consumers seemed to redeem their gifts on Dec. 26 (the first day of the tracking week that ended Jan. 1, 2012).

Three songs surpassed 300,000 in sales that week while another four moved more than 250,000. "Sexy and I Know It" yet again was the biggest title (417,000; up 6%), followed by "We Found Love" (319,000; up 16%), "The One That Got Away" (308,000; up 4%), LMFAO's "Party Rock Anthem" (296,000; up 38%), "It Will Rain" (280,000; up 5%), Adele's "Set Fire to the Rain" (267,000; up 23%) and Flo Rida's "Good Feeling" (257,000; up 18%).

Song sales volume for the seven days ending Jan. 1 was 46.42 million (up 21%) -- the biggest week for song downloads since the week ending Dec. 28, 2008 (47.73 million).

[Agent Yoncé]

Didn't realize last year's song sales after Xmas was that basic.

[pnobelysk]

Dec 28, 2012 13:16:26 GMT -5 imbondz said:

No Canadian Idol is not the same. If you're going to include cmm when discussing idol news/charts you'd need to include Australian idol, Sweden idol, Zimbabwe idol...etc

I would include them If they ended up on American charts like Carly has ...

[Envoirment]

Can't we just put them all in the "Talent competition competitors" category? It would make it easier that way.

1. Call Me Maybe
2. Bleeding Love
3. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)
4. What Makes You Beautiful
5. Before He Cheats
6. No Air
7. Home

I think that's the top 7.

[forg]

Dec 27, 2012 21:43:18 GMT -5 kingofpain said:

And will Gotye be able to survive one more week to make it 52 weeks on the Hot 100????

yes thanks to rise in airplay brought by year-end countdowns

[Deleted]

The reason Carly usually gets excluded from most-successful-Idol lists is because she wasn't introduced to the US audience as a former talent show competitor. We came to be familiar with her the 'old fashioned' way and the press didn't try to piggyback on the Idol tidbit after CMM exploded - nor has the Idol franchise itself tried to step forward in the US and 'claim' her as one of its own. That makes a HUGE difference in how someone is perceived; the general public and media just look at reality show competitors in a different way than they do at 'normal' stars. So Carly is viewed in a different way from say, Leona, One Direction, or Susan Boyle, who when brought to the US were branded as having the Cowell stamp of approval before we heard one note from them. Insisting Carly be included on any list may be technically accurate but it isn't going to change that perception in a significant amount so it never bothers me when she's mistakenly left off. As far as her success here is concerned she's not attached to the Idol brand; it did nothing for her one way or the other.

I'm with Envoirment, I tend to consider all talent competitions under the same umbrella. Regardless of who owns what franchise people tend to look at all the contestants under the same light (well, when they're initially aware someone is from one of these shows). If I do make any separation it's as one list of US acts only, and then one list that includes all the international ones. Of course, the American Idol franchise is the show that tends to dominate, but that is because it's had more time to establish a stronghold, not because of some difference in brand that needs to be recognized.

On a side note, I knew "Bleeding Love" was huge but for some reason I didn't realize it had sold 4 million until now. I always thought it was just under that. Well, WDKY and "Home" will likely both edge past it by the end of 2013.

[Envoirment]

Dec 28, 2012 23:27:16 GMT -5 @cynthiarose said:

On a side note, I knew "Bleeding Love" was huge but for some reason I didn't realize it had sold 4 million until now. I always thought it was just under that. Well, WDKY and "Home" will likely both edge past it by the end of 2013.

It passed 4 million a while ago now (I think back in late 2010). It should be at about ~4.4 million now.

[SPRΞΞ]

I hope Bruno stays at #1 and blocks everyone.

[Deleted]

Dec 28, 2012 23:33:03 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

Dec 28, 2012 23:27:16 GMT -5 @cynthiarose said:

On a side note, I knew "Bleeding Love" was huge but for some reason I didn't realize it had sold 4 million until now. I always thought it was just under that. Well, WDKY and "Home" will likely both edge past it by the end of 2013.

It passed 4 million a while ago now (I think back in late 2010). It should be at about ~4.4 million now.

correct - closer to 4.5

[Deleted]

Dec 28, 2012 23:33:03 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

Dec 28, 2012 23:27:16 GMT -5 @cynthiarose said:

On a side note, I knew "Bleeding Love" was huge but for some reason I didn't realize it had sold 4 million until now. I always thought it was just under that. Well, WDKY and "Home" will likely both edge past it by the end of 2013.

It passed 4 million a while ago now (I think back in late 2010). It should be at about ~4.4 million now.

Yeah, like 2m I figured it was at about 4.5 million now too. (The wiki page has her at 4.277 million as of November 2011.)

I'm still kind of amazed at how "Home" is going so strong. Still in the top 10, not at its peak yet, and with two or three different events in the next month or two that will extend its run even more. It's a shame it didn't get a Grammy nomination but I'm also not surprised...if they sent it to alternative he probably got ignored by the purists who don't consider him an alt artist.

[badrobot]

This article indicates Nielsen includes Vevo. atrl.net/forums/showthread.php?t=117725

HG who confirmed for you? Keith?

[Rodze]

Dec 29, 2012 14:12:33 GMT -5 badrobot said:

This article indicates Nielsen includes Vevo. atrl.net/forums/showthread.php?t=117725

HG who confirmed for you? Keith?

Thanks for the link! I remember that news now.

However, as you said, it only says Nielsen is tracking VEVO, not that Billboard is using it for the Hot 100.

[chartfreak]

Dec 28, 2012 17:17:56 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Just got it confirmed- VEVO currently is not part of the streaming component of the Hot 100. Billboard hopes it, as well as YouTube, will contribute in the future. That fake-view issue, though, is something to be cautious of.

Billboard previews next week's Digital Songs:

www.billboard.com/news/taylor-swift-leads-gift-card-fueled-digital-1008063442.story?utm_source=most_recent#/news/taylor-swift-leads-gift-card-fueled-digital-1008063442.story?utm_source=most_recent

Taylor Swift Leads Gift Card-Fueled Digital Song Sales Surge
by Keith Caulfield, L.A. | December 28, 2012

The yearly post-Christmas digital song sales surge is in full effect this week, with a number of tunes aiming for monster sales figures.

Consumers redeeming download gift cards received for Christmas are spurring huge increases for a variety of songs. Based on sales data from industry sources, Billboard forecasts that perhaps six songs could sell more than 300,000 downloads in the tracking week that ends on Sunday, Dec. 30.

Taylor Swift's "I Knew You Were Trouble" is shaping up to be the biggest beneficiary of gift card downloads, as it could sell somewhere in the range of 525,000 to 575,000. Sources have suggested that around 200,000 of that figure was registered on Christmas Day alone. Last week (ending Dec. 23), "Trouble" sold 221,000 according to Nielsen SoundScan and ranked at No. 2 on Billboard's Digital Songs chart.

"Trouble" should easily jump back to No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart next week with the largest sales frame for a song since August. That month, Swift's own "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" bowed with 623,000 sold.

"Trouble's" forecasted figure -- like all others projected in this story -- could change drastically by the end of the week. As many songs saw huge bursts of gains on Christmas Day, we'll have to wait and see if many of them sustain their popularity through the week.

That said, another title in the hunt for a 300,000-plus week is Bruno Mars' current Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 single "Locked Out of Heaven." The cut could sell maybe 425,000 to 450,000. (Up from 226,000 last week.) At the present, "Locked" seems like it will hold at No. 1 on the Hot 100 next week, even if Swift's "Trouble" sells as well as we're hearing. "Locked's" Hot 100 airplay lead over "Trouble" is still quite wide and "Trouble" has yet to become available to streaming services. (The Hot 100 blends sales, airplay and streaming data to determine its rankings.)

Also expected to move major units this week: the Lumineers' "Ho Hey" (350,000 to 375,000), Justin Bieber's "Beauty and a Beat" (featuring Nicki Minaj) (340,000 to 380,000), Rihanna's "Diamonds" (300,000 to 350,000) and PSY's resurgent "Gangnam Style" (325,000 to 375,000). Last week, the titles sold a respective 149,000; 119,000; 141,000 and 116,000.

Unlike this year, where all of the gift card impact will be housed in a single SoundScan tracking week, last year's holiday haul was dispersed over two weeks. As Christmas fell on a Sunday in 2011 (the final day in SoundScan's tracking week), we saw sales bumps in both the week ending Dec. 25, 2011 and Jan. 1, 2012.

In the week ending Dec. 25, 2011, there was just one song that sold more than 300,000: LMFAO's "Sexy and I Know It" (395,000; up 159% compared to the previous week). The next-biggest sellers were Katy Perry's "The One That Got Away" (297,000; up 157%), Rihanna's "We Found Love" (276,000; up 86%) and Bruno Mars' "It Will Rain" (266,000; up 112%). Overall digital song volume that week stood at 38.25 million (up 70%).

The next week, the major impact of downloads cards were felt, as many consumers seemed to redeem their gifts on Dec. 26 (the first day of the tracking week that ended Jan. 1, 2012).

Three songs surpassed 300,000 in sales that week while another four moved more than 250,000. "Sexy and I Know It" yet again was the biggest title (417,000; up 6%), followed by "We Found Love" (319,000; up 16%), "The One That Got Away" (308,000; up 4%), LMFAO's "Party Rock Anthem" (296,000; up 38%), "It Will Rain" (280,000; up 5%), Adele's "Set Fire to the Rain" (267,000; up 23%) and Flo Rida's "Good Feeling" (257,000; up 18%).

Song sales volume for the seven days ending Jan. 1 was 46.42 million (up 21%) -- the biggest week for song downloads since the week ending Dec. 28, 2008 (47.73 million).

Should this be in the newer Hot 100 thread since these sales contribute to that chart??