the next few #1s?

[gcook]

shaniagotchagood said:

I think Sara Evans has a shot at #1..

I was just coming back to mention that. I think that Sara probably does have a dencent shot, but knowing my luck the song will stall around 3.

[Marv]

Country radio has learned its lessons from the early nineties; they had tons of new artists (Garth, Clint, Alan & B&D) who would eventually become superstars, but because they ran those singles up and down the charts so fat, a lot of those songs never took hold with the audience to the point where they could become REALLY familiar with the audience, as various consultants have written in numerous R&R columns over the years.

When country radio starting slowing their charts down in 1997 or thereabouts, that gave lots of stations chances to build their libraries, and pick up tons of new listeners, especially the 'soccer moms' who started bailing out of the CHR/Pop format in 1989.

That's why CHR/Pop has lost millions of listeners since 1989, several of its key stations have either lost 40%-60%+ of their listeners, or left the format entirely, while country radio continues to roll along as the most-listened to format out there, with news-talk a distant second, with 7,000,000 fewer weekly listeners.

The fact that even Tim McGraw has been caught up in the 'great country chart slowdown' which Lon Helton has written about a lot shouldn't surprise anybody; the fact that 'Real Good Man' needed TWENTY-FOUR weeks to hit #1 should be a dead giveaway.

However, thanks to Gretchen Wilson and Mr. McGraw, the country charts MAY start speeding up real soon; we'll have to wait and see.

[Perp]

Thanks for the interesting insights, Marv. :)

[chriskolm]

I think Sara will be #1 in 2 or 3 weeks. Hopefully!

[Perp]

Billboard Top 4 for this week (ending 9/12), issue date 9/17:

#1 Keith, 4831 spins, +83
#2 Tim, 4271 spins, -284
#3 Sara, 4212 spins, +448
#4 Gretchen, 4037 spins, +128

Sara trailed Keith by over 600 spins two days ago on Billboard, and her recent very fast spin gains stumbled a bit on Mediabase today, so it's very likely Keith will remain #1 next week.  


Mediabase R&R panel top spins:
home.earthlink.net/~oceanblue831/shedaisy/graphs/top_spins_for_week.gif

Top audience:
home.earthlink.net/~oceanblue831/shedaisy/graphs/top_aud_for_week.gif

[Marv]

Keith Urban is also #1 in R&R, ending Tim's record breaking TEN week spree at the top, and his new CD comes out on Tuesday. Nice timing, huh?

[someguy]

I think Keith will end up with 4 weeks at #1 before Sara takes over. After her, it looks like it'll be George Strait. Toby Keith appears to be out of the running, but he may still pick back up. Brooks & Dunn also appear to be a long shot at this point. Further down, songs with a decent shot are Kenny Chesney, Lonestar, possibly Gary Allan, maybe Reba (hopefully), and whatever Tim releases next.

[Marv]

That Toby Keith song BARELY won acceptance on 'After Midnite'; only 52% 'picked' the song', while 48% chose to 'flick' it.

I guess the callout is going too well either, and he'll probably meander his way to the top 5, but not much more.

[smack]

I added if I was right or wrong so far lol...Here's the next list:

9/29  KU
10/6  KU
10/13 KU
10/20 GS
10/27 GS or AJ
11/3 AJ or Phil Vasser

I do think possibly we could see Gary Allan or Lonestar in the next 8-10 weeks, but I have not heard lonestar's song yet.  I'm basing that solely on chart movement.  Notice, I took Joe Nichols and Toby out of my list!

Now, look below at my quote, I'll put who was actually at #1

smack said:

It's a really tough call, but here is:

8/25  TM
9/1    KU   TM
9/8    KU   TM
9/15  GW or AJ   KU
9/22  AJ or GS    KU
9/22  GS    oops, duplicate
9/29  TK     should be KU
10/6  Joe Nichols should be KU

[Marv]

The way Toby's single is going, they might have to release another single before Christmas to support his upcoming CD.

He's locked up being the #1 single artist in R&R for the third straight year, but Tim and Kenny are REALLY going to challenge him in 2005.

[Marv]

Considering that 'Remember When' has now clinched being #1 for the year in R&R, it would certainly be nice if 'Too Much Of A Good Thing' hits the top as well.

Did Alan ever have the #1 single of the year between 1992 & 1996?