Thoughts on #1s

[someguy]

I really like how the chart has been lately up at the top. It's good to see songs spending less time at #1 and allowing other songs to get to the top. George Strait's "I Hate Everything", Sara Evans' "Suds In The Bucket", Phil Vassar's "In A Real Love", Lonestar's "Mr. Mom" and Gary Allan's "Nothing On But The Radio" (most likely) have all either spent 1 or 2 weeks on top before falling. I like it much better like this than having song after song spend 4-7 weeks at #1 - that makes for a boring chart.

If Gary gets #1 this week (which I'd say is quite likely), the streak should continue. Kenny Chesney looks like a good candidate for #1 next week, and he'll probably either spend 1 or 2 weeks on top before Tim overtakes him. The video for "Anything But Mine" is up on CMT, so I imagine it'll go for adds soon after "The Woman With You" hits #1.

After Tim, Blake Shelton may get #1, though I suspect he'll be shut out at #2. Further down the chart, Alan Jackson's "Monday Morning Church", Brad Paisley's "Mud On The Tires", Keith Urban's "You're My Better Half" and Gretchen Wilson's "When I Think About Cheating" all appear to be good candidates for the top spot at this time. I'd also say Rascal Flatts have a shot, though I think they'll stall out at around #5.

I also wouldn't rule out Reba, though she needs to get going a little faster if she's going to be competitive.

[Marv]

The fact that the charts are indeed faster is a direct result of the fact that both R&R & BB slashed the sizes of their respective reporting panels thirteen months ago at the request of Nashville's label honchos, who held meeting with the editors at both trades in July of last year.

There were WAAAAY too many country stations playing WAAAY too much library-based music and not giving the avalanche of GREAT new country music which has hit the format since 'Somebody Like You' 2.5 years ago a chance to take hold and become familiar with it's audience.

That is particularly true in reference to the LARGE number of 12-24 year-olds who've been abandoning the struggling shrinking/crumbling CHR/Pop (formerly known as Top 40) format in droves over the past 12-18 months, as recent stories in R&R have confirmed.

You've undoubtedly noticed that superstars now have no trouble hitting R&Rs top 20 in no more than 3-4 weeks, which is great for the format, and hitting the top ten 3-4 weeks later.  When an exceptional song such as 'Live Like You Were Dying' streaks to #1 in SEVERN weeks, and sets TONS of weekly airplay records (such as averaging FORTY-EIGHT spins per week per station in early August, an unprecedented feat), you know that that has to be GREAT news for the format.

Faster charts leads to more singles from any given CD; more single leads to more CD sales for the somewhat cautious fans out there who'll wait until they hear the 2nd or 3rd single from a CD before heading for Circuit City or Best Buy to plunk down their $14 to buy that CD.

When the format gets a REAL shot of VERY fresh air via a song which sounds like NOTHING else has SOUNDED at the format IN YEARS, and country radio's core audience (25-54 year-old) women east the song up ROYALLY, while such a song simultaneously grabs the attention of all of the males out there because of its take-no-prisoners ATTITUDE, that is REALLY great for the format.

When such a song hits R&Rs top 10 in just FOUR weeks (EXTREMELY rare for ANY debut single!!), and spends FIVE weeks at #1, that is also GREAT for the format; that's the story of how 'RedNeck Woman' re-invvigorated country radio in a manner not seen in MANY years.

It's also a very good sign for the format when songwriters become country music artists in their own right. The fact that Rachel Proctor's MUCH-acclaimed debut CD (she co-wrote 'Where Would You Be?' by Martina McBride) has received the praise it richly deserves is wonderful news for country radio.

You can certainly add Phil Vassar to that list; he wrote Tim McGraw's month-long charttopper 'My Next Thirty Years', 'Just Another Day In Paradise' is a staple in the library of virtually every country station out there (it was #5 in terms of airplay per Medibase three months ago, according to a Lon Helton column in R&R), and he just had a number one single with 'In A Real Love'.

Add to that the much-praised debut CDs from ladies such as Gretchen Wilson & Julie Roberts, as well as STRONG new material from the likes of Keith Urban and Joe Nichols, and it is VERY easy to see why country music sales are expected to be up by as much as TWENTY percent this year, vs. a meager 5-6% rise for CD sales overall, thanks in a HUGE part to CHR/Pop radio no longer being a mass-appeal format.

The format is awash in new stars, 'Redneck Woman's' blow-your-doors-off attitude has invigorated Nashville's songwriters into pushing the envelope A LOT when writing new music, and the format's undeniable return to its traditonal roots since September 11th 2001, are all unmistakeably evident to any country radio listener out there, and trhe fact that the charts are MUCH quicker this year can only be recognized as being a sign of MORE good things to come.

Having STRONG opening week sales this year from Tim McGraw, Toby Keith, Shania Twain, George Strait & Alan Jackson isn't too shabby either!!!!

[reception]

It's good to see that songs falling from #1 don't plummet like they used to.

[smack]

Billboard is changing in 4 chart weeks to based on audience rather than spins. Had this happened, Tim would've been #1 for 10 weeks I believe. I think we will see a mixed reaction to this change...some songs will stay on longer, some will drop like rocks. Larger market stations will control the country chart more than previous.

[drock89]

smack said:

Billboard is changing in 4 chart weeks to based on audience rather than spins. Had this happened, Tim would've been #1 for 10 weeks I believe. I think we will see a mixed reaction to this change...some songs will stay on longer, some will drop like rocks. Larger market stations will control the country chart more than previous.

Pardon my French but this sucks. UHHHHHHH!!!!

[Deleted]

shaniagotchagood said:

Pardon my French but this sucks. UHHHHHHH!!!!

I agree. If I'm understanding this right, this basically means that smaller market stations will have to play their same roster of 6-8 artists twice as much to have any effect on the chart.

While a big market station will play a Tim, Kenny or Gretchen song 25 times a day, a smaller market station would have to play that same song 50 times or more to get the same Audience impression.

More of the same artists.

Great. Just great.

[WhySoSerious?]

You could also make the argument that spins on small market stations should count less because less people are hearing them. Should a station with 100 listeners count the same as one being heard by 1000?

[smack]

I agree...this is how the hot 100 is formulated anyways, and I think it said the country chart was the only one ranked on spins yet.

TCorey said:

You could also make the argument that spins on small market stations should count less because less people are hearing them.  Should a station with 100 listeners count the same as one being heard by 1000?

[drock89]

TCorey said:

You could also make the argument that spins on small market stations should count less because less people are hearing them. Should a station with 100 listeners count the same as one being heard by 1000?

They would have to redo the weight scale, correct?

[smack]

How would they do that? I remember reading back in the early 90s, BB had bronze (small), silver and gold (large) markets. I assume they still do these. Chances are, a large market, such as chicago, they are monitoring 2 country stations, and they probably are both weighted pretty heavy. I know the station up in milwaukee got dropped because BB changed it's policies to force country stations monitored by BB to play at least 40% currents last summer. WMIL had to change to compete with a new station broadcasting in the area that played more gold. But either way, I believe the stations in chicago got more than twice the weight that milwaukee's did. Keep in mind though, chicago's metro area is 3x the size or more of milwaukee's. Chicago's metro area is about 5 million, milwaukee is about 1.4 million. But also, people outside the metro area can hear those stations too. If you are about 30 miles south of milwaukee, you can get either milwaukee or chicago. 20 miles west of milwaukee, you can get milwaukee or madison stations. 30 miles NW, you can get milwaukee, madison, appleton, and in some cases greenbay. So I'm not sure exactly how they calculate the audience.

shaniagotchagood said:

They would have to redo the weight scale, correct?

[drock89]

Off subject, but they need to force more percentage of current music..

[smack]

I hate stations that play the same songs over and over....sounds too much like top 40 stations then. Some of those play their top 5 songs over 100/week. Country seems to avg about 60 for the top song.

shaniagotchagood said:

Off subject, but they need to force more percentage of current music..

[Marv]

Actually, the trades and the labels DID force MANY stations to boost their percentage of current airplay substantially if they wished to remain on the panel, but both trades slashed their panels at the request of the labels in October of 2003, and the charts have gotten somewhat faster.

There were meetings between the record label execs and the publishers of both R&R & BB in which the labels requested that such changes be made, and that both trades dramatically upgrade the percentage of currents any given station MUST play to remain a reporter.

The labels had done their research and found tjhat there were FAR too many stations which were playing VERY little new music, whether it be by a format superstar or a newcomer; in some cases they found stations playing as little as FIFTEEN percent currents, which is downright disastrous for the format.

R&R added two reporters last week and now stands at 115 reporters, vs. 153 reporters in early October of last year before they slashed their panel size.

Since the top 3-5 songs at any given station are rarely played more than five or six times per day as 'power' tracks, newer artists do have better odds for moving up the charts, as Gretchen Wilson and Keith Urban have clearly demonstrated recently.

Considering that only ONE of 2004's top ten singles never made it to #1, that was nonetheless good news for the format as well, since that particular song (Letters From Home) will wind up #4 for the year, behind 'Remember When'. 'American Soldier', and 'When The Sun Goes Down'; 'LFH' was certainly among the VERY best singles of the year, and that's beyond debate.