Billboard Hot 100: 08/24/2013

[Deleted]

Personally, I think "Applause" has less of a chance to hit #1 than "Roar."

[The Upper Hand]

Aug 9, 2013 19:20:08 GMT -5 Rocky said:

Aug 9, 2013 19:03:18 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

Estimates:

"Roar"
HDS: 600,000
Stream: 1,000,000
Airplay: 80,000,000
= 62,888 points

"Blurred Lines"
HDS: 300,000
Stream: 8,000,000
Airplay: 200,000,000
= 69,443 points

By that logic:

"Applause"
HDS: 600,000
Stream: 8,000,000
Airplay: 60,000,000
= 62,888 points

"Blurred Lines"
HDS: 300,000
Stream: 7,500,000
Airplay: 195,000,000
= 69,443 points

Sales / 12
Airplay / 7500
Overall Streaming / 450

50,000 + 8,000 + 17,778 Applause ------- 75,778

25,000 + 26,000 + 16,667 Blurred Lines - 67,667


Timing... It will all depend on the streaming. Will go down for BL, also the airplay.

And I've just tested the formula on the "Harlem Shake" vs "Thrift Shop" famous week. It works almost perfectly.

Points = Sales/12 + Airplay/7,500 + Stream/450

"Baauer (born Harry Rodrigues) has taken advantage of the digital era (and the Hot 100's formula revision) to quickly make his hit the most popular song in the country. The track has surged thanks to the suddenly wildly popular "Harlem Shake" meme. (Its concept: a 30-second video begins with a person dancing to the song alone for 15 seconds, while other people appear unaware of the movement. Then, all participants join in for the clip's second half.) Fueled by the song's audio as a backing track, "Shake" debuts on the BDS-based Streaming Songs chart with an astounding 103 million weekly streams. The title does not appear on On-Demand Songs as only 309,000 of its streams stem from the online subscription services that contribute to that chart.

While "Shake" was released commercially last June, it didn't begin to sell significantly until last week, thanks to the track’s viral momentum, when it moved 18,000 (up from less than 1,000 the week before), according to SoundScan. This week, it blasts onto the Digital Songs chart at No. 3 with 262,000 downloads sold (up 1,359%).

The one element largely missing so far from the success of "Shake" is radio airplay. (Released on the independent Mad Decent label, it does not boast major label promotional backing). In the Hot 100's Feb. 13-19 BDS tracking week, the song registered just 2 million audience impressions, garnering plays on 112 of the 1,235 stations monitored for the Hot 100. Latin pop-formatted WVOZ San Juan, P.R., leads all reporters with 25 plays for "Shake" last week, followed by dance KNHC Seattle. Still, the airplay is up sharply from the previous week, when the song logged a mere two spins nationally.

As "Shake" takes over atop the Hot 100 (and Dance/Electronic Songs, where it leaps from No. 12), it dethrones Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' "Thrift Shop," featuring Wanz, after a four-week reign. Showing just how strong "Shake" is in streaming, "Shop" registered an impressive 10.1 million streams in the chart's tracking week (dipping 1-2 on Streaming Songs), but the figure is clearly exponentially lower than the 103 million for "Shake." "Shake," in fact, leads the Hot 100 with three-and-a-half times the overall chart points total of "Shop."

Still, "Shop" leads Hot Digital Songs for a sixth week, scoring its highest weekly sum (412,000, up 6%) so far.

On Radio Songs, "Shop" bullets again at No. 4 with 111 million impressions, up 8%. It leads Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs for a sixth week.

Points ("Harlem Shake"): 262,000/12 + 2,000,000/7,500 + 103,000,000/450 = 250,988

Points ("Thrift Shop"): 412,000/12 + 111,000,000/7,500 + 10,100,000/450 = 71,558

71,558 x 3.5 = 250,523

[Rocky]

Aug 9, 2013 22:14:14 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

Personally, I think "Applause" has less of a chance to hit #1 than "Roar."

Explain me why. The latter has a music video on its release date and we all know that her sales are more frontloaded. Katy will most likely hit #1 when it nears top 3 on airplay, but as secretpassage's numbers showed it's too early for her. She won't even sell 600k in its release week (we can assume that too). I think both will be #1.

[Deleted]

I doubt Katy will have 80 million BDS on her 9th day though. Probably more than 1 million streams, but still I don't see her getting #1.

To be honest, I'm half expecting her to debut with around 200-300k...

[jayhawk1117]

Aug 10, 2013 5:30:00 GMT -5 Codex said:

I doubt Katy will have 80 million BDS on her 9th day though. Probably more than 1 million streams, but still I don't see her getting #1.

To be honest, I'm half expecting her to debut with around 200-300k...

I feel like you are selling her quite short with a max of 300k, that wouldnt even beat BL in sales which im certain will happen. Id say 325k-550k(Absolute Maximum).

[jayhawk1117]

I feel like Lady Gaga's #s will be higher because shes been gone since You and I which was April 2011 (I Think) and Katy has been gone for a little over a year

[Duca]

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 274.834 (+1.734)
2. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 157.626 (-1.744)
3. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 155.576 (-0.371)
4. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 149.153 (+0.946)
5. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 135.962 (+0.851)
6. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 122.856 (+0.433)
7. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 117.327 (-1.007)
8. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 108.125 (+1.096)
9. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 105.911 (+0.860)
10. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 99.246 (+1.280)
11. JASON DERULO – The Other Side: 94.304 (-0.851)
12. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 90.905 (+0.944)
13. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can’t Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 87.028 (- 0.670)
14. PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 78.382 (-0.904)
15. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 69.878 (+0.028)
16. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 67.353 (+2.110) ▲
17. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Cruise f/Nelly: 66.560 (-1.060) ▼
18. RANDY HOUSER – Runnin’ Outta Moonlight: 65.615 (-0.294) ▼
19. HUNTER HAYES – I Want Crazy: 64.868 (+0.651) ▲
20. RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 64.211 (-0.995) ▼

JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Take Back The Night: 64.150 (+0.348)
BRETT ELDREDGE – Don’t Ya: 63.137 (+0.600)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – See You Again: 59.563 (-0.059)
KEITH URBAN – Little Bit Of Everything: 59.092 (+0.574)
MILEY CYRUS – We Can’t Stop: 58.021 (+0.544)
EASTON CORBIN – All Over The Road: 50.587 (+0.667)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 46.513 (+0.718)
J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 46.467 (+0.459)
LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 45.473 (+2.219)
KENNY CHESNEY – When I See This Bar: 35.414 (+0.057)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 28.885 (+0.341)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 28.210 (+0.858)
DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 22.801 (+3.268)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 22.395 (+0.583)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Turn The Night Up: 21.943 (+0.107)
ONE DIRECTION – Best Song Ever: 20.631 (+0.668)
LABRINTH – Beneath Your Beautiful: 18.471 (-0.196)
NEIGHBOURHOOD – Sweater Weather: 16.442 (-0.013)
AVICII – Wake Me Up: 14.881 (+1.748)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 9.102 (+0.126)
FLO RIDA – Can’t Believe It f/Pitbull: 6.684 (+0.729)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 5.694 (+0.043)
THE WANTED – We Own The Night: 0.737

[Acid Eyes]

I see Katy starting with better airplay but Gaga starting with higher sales/more streams.

[Az Paynter]

Aug 10, 2013 6:29:49 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

I feel like Lady Gaga's #s will be higher because shes been gone since You and I which was April 2011 (I Think) and Katy has been gone for a little over a year

Marry The Night.

[HolidayGuy]

Yah, 80 million airplay for either for the first full week seems rather high, especially since any radio promotion will not be part of the equation.

I know "Born This Way" debuted huge in airplay, but IO don't think there's as much hype/excitement this time around.

[Rocky]

If feel like... khm so it doesn't matter who's gone for a longer time Katy will get more Airplay from HAC/AC and maybe even CHR. I don't mean a lot more, but definitely still end up with higher audience numbers. Gaga will make it up with sales and you can't compare their streaming. I'm starting to doubt that BL will fall that much for Gaga's second week and he will break 220M BDS this week.

[#Joseph.T]

the 10th week #1 for BL since We Found Love(2011-2012)

[Duca]

Aug 10, 2013 7:13:08 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Aug 10, 2013 6:29:49 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

I feel like Lady Gaga's #s will be higher because shes been gone since You and I which was April 2011 (I Think) and Katy has been gone for a little over a year

Marry The Night.

No one remembers 'Divorce the Charts.'

[Rocky]

Aug 10, 2013 8:28:27 GMT -5 Duca said:

Aug 10, 2013 7:13:08 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Marry The Night.

No one remembers 'Divorce the Charts.'

8D I love you. You are a mess.

[Az Paynter]

Aug 10, 2013 8:28:27 GMT -5 Duca said:

Aug 10, 2013 7:13:08 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Marry The Night.

No one remembers 'Divorce the Charts.'

Clearly you do if you're gonna make a joke about it~

[Duca]

Aug 10, 2013 8:52:40 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Aug 10, 2013 8:28:27 GMT -5 Duca said:

No one remembers 'Divorce the Charts.'

Clearly you do if you're gonna make a joke about it~

People who post on music boards obviously remember gigantic flops by A-listers. She tried so hard to make it happen. I wonder how the song would have performed if it were the lead single since it was the original choice.

[Rocky]

Aug 10, 2013 9:03:02 GMT -5 Duca said:

Aug 10, 2013 8:52:40 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Clearly you do if you're gonna make a joke about it~

People who post on music boards obviously remember gigantic flops by A-listers. She tried so hard to make it happen. I wonder how the song would have performed if it were the lead single since it was the original choice.

It's probably my least favourite single by her (Telephone is close), but I feel like I shouldn't bash it as a stan. It's a good song, but too loud for radio - heck even I had to lower the volume every time it came on my playlist - and should have never been a single. It would have done much better as a first single, but it was too weak to go as a 5th single, and I didn't even mention how big of a flop You and I was worldwide. "Hair" was the only radio-ready song on BTW after YIA, they should have gone with that as a WW 4th single and release it in US as the fifth. Then throw Scheisse WW.

[josh]

Aug 10, 2013 7:13:08 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Aug 10, 2013 6:29:49 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

I feel like Lady Gaga's #s will be higher because shes been gone since You and I which was April 2011 (I Think) and Katy has been gone for a little over a year

Marry The Night.

January 2012.

[Az Paynter]

Aug 10, 2013 9:03:02 GMT -5 Duca said:

Aug 10, 2013 8:52:40 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Clearly you do if you're gonna make a joke about it~

People who post on music boards obviously remember gigantic flops by A-listers. She tried so hard to make it happen. I wonder how the song would have performed if it were the lead single since it was the original choice.

...joke. Missed it. You.

[RadioBeatz]

Aug 10, 2013 8:05:40 GMT -5 #Joseph.T said:

the 10th week #1 for BL since We Found Love(2011-2012)

and it'll probably beat it.

[skaterboyccs]

In the long run Katy will be #1 for weeks.

Gaga's just overhyped.

[lugus15]

Yeah, I think Same Love will reach the top ten this week. I believe Love Somebody barely got more points last week, and thus the #10 placement. This week, Love Somebody is stalling in Airplay and falling down in sales. Same Love will get more points. Plus, no new songs have sold that much that they will debut in the top ten.

Fingers crossed.

PS: If indeed SL reaches the top ten this week, then I would be extremely happy. I was rooting, for quite some weeks now, for all of the following to become top ten hits: Clarity, Safe & Sound, Love Somebody and Same Love.

[#Joseph.T]

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 276.862 (+ 2.028)
2. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 155.509 (- 2.117)
3. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 155.123 (- 0.453)
4. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 150.235 (+ 1.082)
5. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 135.533 (- 0.429)
6. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 122.846 (- 0.010)
7. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 116.112 (- 1.215)
8. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 108.532 (+ 0.407)
9. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 106.135 (+ 0.224)
10. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 99.853 (+ 0.607)
11. JASON DERULO – The Other Side: 93.346 (- 0.958)
12. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 91.052 (+ 0.147)
13. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can’t Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 85.900 (- 1.128)
14. PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 77.853 (- 0.529)
15. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 70.514 (+ 0.636)
16. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 69.356 (+ 2.003)
17. RANDY HOUSER – Runnin’ Outta Moonlight: 65.486 (- 0.129) ▲
18. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Cruise f/Nelly: 64.991 (- 1.569) ▼
19. HUNTER HAYES – I Want Crazy: 64.947 (+ 0.079)
20. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Take Back The Night: 64.419 (+ 0.269) ▲

BRETT ELDREDGE – Don’t Ya: 63.970 (+ 0.833)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – See You Again: 59.454 (- 0.109)
KEITH URBAN – Little Bit Of Everything: 59.207 (+ 0.115)
MILEY CYRUS – We Can’t Stop: 58.382 (+ 0.361)
EASTON CORBIN – All Over The Road: 51.596 (+ 1.009)
LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 48.005 (+ 2.532)
J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 47.000 (+ 0.533)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 46.588 (+ 0.075)
KENNY CHESNEY – When I See This Bar: 35.681 (+ 0.267)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 29.659 (+ 0.774)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 28.839 (+ 0.629)
DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 26.206 (+ 3.405)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 22.598 (+ 0.203)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Turn The Night Up: 22.406 (+ 0.463)
ONE DIRECTION – Best Song Ever: 20.693 (+ 0.062)
LORDE – Royals: 20.636
TAYLOR SWIFT – Red: 20.288
LABRINTH – Beneath Your Beautiful: 18.538 (+ 0.067)
AVICII – Wake Me Up: 16.327 (+ 1.446)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 9.021 (- 0.081)
KATY PERRY – Roar: 7.928 :o :o
FLO RIDA – Can’t Believe It f/Pitbull: 7.639 (+ 0.955)
KINGS OF LEON – Supersoaker: 7.471
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 5.715 (+ 0.021)
ARIANA GRANDE – Baby I: 3.306
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 1.389 (+ 0.438)
FALL OUT BOY – Alone Together: 0.464
MGMT – Your Life Is A Lie: 0.317

[Deleted]

LMAO.

The difference between Blurred Lines and Get Lucky is as much as the #6 song.

[Az Paynter]

^ That CAN'T be real. Shut up I know it is

[Enigma.]

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 276.862 (+ 2.028)

These updates are just crazy. C'mon aren't you in the States sick of this already?

[allow that]

Aug 11, 2013 11:04:08 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

C'mon aren't you in the States sick of this already?

Yes.

[Verisimilitude]

I'm still struggling to see what makes "Blurred Lines" different from any of his other 2000's singles for the world to be enamored with it so much.

[Linnethia Monique]

Aug 11, 2013 11:17:42 GMT -5 Verisimilitude said:

I'm still struggling to see what makes "Blurred Lines" different from any of his other 2000's singles for the world to be enamored with it so much.

It's really his first single that attracts all ages of listeners. Most of his other material has either been too Urban, too HAC, etc. I've seen people in both their early teens and late 60s/70s rocking to this at BBQs, etc.

[jayhawk]

KATY PERRY – Roar: 7.928. This is after a few hours in ONE day.