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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 18, 2013 12:22:01 GMT -5
Google Hits: ONLY USI wish Billboard found a way to make google hits more accurate and use it as a part of the formula. I think I'II make a formula with google hits included. This way, I can show you how the chart would have looked if they added this. Any help with a formula is appreciated. With google hits included, #1 debuts would be more plausible. Katy and Gaga are #8 and #9 today in google hits, but Roar peaked with 136,000 google hits 1 day and Applause peaked with 85,700 google hits in 1 day. Today's update (8/18/2013) TOP 20 # | Artist & Song | Google hits today | | 1 | Avicii
Wake Me Up | 79,800 | | 2 | Robin Thicke ft. T.I. & Pharrell
Blurred Lines | 76,200 | | 3 | Miley Cyrus
We Can't Stop | 59,000 | | 4 | One Direction
Best Song Ever | 51,100 | | 5 | Capital Cities
Safe and Sound | 41,900 | | 6 | Imagine Dragons
Radioactive | 41,500 | | 7 | Daft Punk ft. Pharrell Williams
Get Lucky | 40,700 | 8 | Katy Perry
Roar | 40,100 | 9 | Lady Gaga
Applause | 40,000 | | 10 | Bruno Mars
Treasure | 37,500 | | 11 | Justin Timberlake
Mirrors | 36,400 | | 12 | Ellie Goulding
Burn | 32,000 | | 13 | Drake ft. Majid Jordan
Hold On, We're Going Home | 31,300 | | 14 | Jay-Z ft. Justin Timberlake
Holy Grail | 27,600 | | 15 | P!nk ft. Lily Allen
True Love | 25,400 | | 16 | Naughty Boy ft. Sam Smith
La La La | 24,900 | | 17 | Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Mary Lambert
Same Love | 23,900 | | 18 | Rihanna ft. Mikky Ekko
Stay | 22,600 | | 19 | P!nk ft. Nate Ruess
Just Give Me A Reason | 22,300 | | 20 | Passenger
Let Her Go | 22,250 |
Other songs Artist & Song | Google hits today | Luke Bryan
That's My Kind Of Night | 22,000 | Lana Del Rey & Cendric Gervais
Summertime Sadness | 21,300 | Robin Thicke ft. Kendrick Lamar
Give It 2 U | 21,100 | PSY
Gangnam Style | 20,300 | Lorde
Royals | 15,200 | John Newman
Love Me Again | 13,800 | Ariana Grande ft. Mac Miller
The Way | 11,800 | Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Ray Dalton
Can't Hold Us | 11,500 | Florida Georgia Line ft. Nelly
Cruise | 10,400 | Zedd ft. Foxes
Clarity | 10,300 | Maroon 5
Love Somebody | 9,460 | Anna Kendrick
Cups (When I'm Gone) | 8,340 | Jason Derulo
The Other Side | 6,720 | Phillip Phillips
Gone, Gone, Gone | 2,760 |
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Post by Rocky on Aug 18, 2013 12:43:54 GMT -5
Taken from the "Wake Me Up" thread:Stop lying. I predicted it would be a smash 1 month ago. But Rocky laughed at me that time! I don't tell a lie josh! Seriously, who said it won't "smash"? Everyone here thought and still think this will be a big hit. #1 =/= smash, and top 5 =/= flop. This sure will be a big top five hit, but #1 is out of question counting in the current direction of pop radio. This should reach top 5 on pop, top 10 on alternative, top 10 on HAC. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2013 13:38:21 GMT -5
I predicted it would be a smash 1 month ago. But Rocky laughed at me that time! I don't tell a lie josh! Seriously, who said it won't "smash"? Everyone here thought and still think this will be a big hit. #1 =/= smash, and top 5 =/= flop. This sure will be a big top five hit, but #1 is out of question counting in the current direction of pop radio. This should reach top 5 on pop, top 10 on alternative, top 10 on HAC. Sorry! I won't tag you anymore! |
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Aug 18, 2013 13:40:11 GMT -5
WYSIWYG- it was as accurate as it could be, given the methodology. It wasn't the most-played tracks, or singles that sold the most copies- rather a compilation of ranked radio-station playlists and store's list of its supposed best sellers. Billboard's methodology is hardly a mess- it's the damn best system it's had in place to date for all-time lists. Because the options are worse- to not do all-time lists at all, or do separate all-time lists, one for 1958-1992, and 1992-present- which would be rather ridiculous. BB didn't spend a few minutes devising the methodology- it took time and precision to make sure everything was on a level playing field (which the methodology accomplishes). But, you're still going to think what you think, so what I post won't matter. Just try to accept- and enjoy- the all-time lists. :) "Roar" leaked last Saturday, so this update reflects that near 8m airplay being removed from the rolling total. Tomorrow's update will remove the big first-full-day numbers. There is no good option that's why I said it's best not to do it at all if you care about accuracy which Billboard likes to say "its just a numbers game". They mix bad data with good data just to make a cash grab. That methodology favors artists and songs that stay on the charts longer not necessarily songs that were the biggest hits or sold the most records or had the most airplay or both. It becomes a game of who stayed on the charts the longest given the rules during the time period those artists were on the charts... |
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3m3r7c
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Post by 3m3r7c on Aug 18, 2013 13:52:46 GMT -5
What do you guys think will be #1 next week BL or roar? Or will it be too close to call?
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Linnethia Monique
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Post by Linnethia Monique on Aug 18, 2013 13:56:00 GMT -5
I said it before,but nobody cared! Taken from the "Wake Me Up" thread: But it won't be a smash in US. Stop lying. |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 18, 2013 14:13:46 GMT -5
What's "good data" and "bad data"? There were no computerized monitoring/sales systems available back then, so the data was as good as it could be. Longevity is a key factor in determining overall success. Who cares about all the points "Harlem Shake" had when it was No. 1, if its chart life was relatively short, compared to other singles? Whiel I do think that some acts are ranked artificially high on the all-time list- i.e. Paula Abdul, who had just eight top 10 hits and 15 Hot 100 entries- the biggest hitmakers are ranked pretty much as they should be. And perhaps Katy Perry, who's already top 40- but, she's had great longevity with her singles. This discussion probably belongs in the 55th anniversary thread.  But, it is Hot-100-related. 3m3- it may be close, but I'd probably give the edge to "Blurred Lines." |
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 18, 2013 14:14:29 GMT -5
www.billboard.com/articles/news/5657740/katy-perrys-roar-now-aiming-to-sell-525000-plus-downloads-in-first-weekKaty Perry's 'Roar' Now Aiming to Sell 525,000-Plus Downloads in First Week By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles | August 18, 2013 2:50 PM EDT Katy Perry's "Roar" just keeps getting bigger. Industry sources now suggest that her new single "Roar" could debut with 525,000 to 550,000 downloads sold by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, Aug. 18. Three days ago, the forecast for "Roar" was at 450,000; and six days ago: 400,000. "Roar" will easily give Perry the biggest sales week of the year for a song, and likely her largest sales week. At the present, her largest week was earned by "Firework," which sold 509,000 downloads in the week after Christmas in 2010. Meanwhile, the sales projection for fellow diva Lady Gaga's new song "Applause" is static: It should sell around 200,000 to 225,000 downloads. That was the forecast for the song three days ago as well. The official Nielsen SoundScan sales figures for both songs will be announced on Wednesday, Aug. 21. "Roar" and "Applause" were released to digital retailers on Monday and Tuesday (Aug. 12 and 13), respectively. The songs preview new studio albums for each superstar: Perry's "Roar" leads her "Prism" set, due out Oct. 22. "Applause" is the first single from Gaga's "ArtPop," which arrives on Nov. 11. On Monday, Aug. 12, there were early indications that both "Roar" and "Applause" could sell over 400,000 downloads. At the time, industry sources theorized that, considering both artists' stellar track history with digital song sales, a robust first-week for the two acts seemed likely. Perry's sales start benefits slightly from how it will have a full seven days worth of sales in its debut. Most songs are released to retailers on Tuesday of each week, whereas "Roar" bowed on a Monday. "Roar" will get seven days of sales in its first week, as Nielsen SoundScan's tracking week runs from Monday through Sunday each week. (Yet, most new songs and albums are released to retailers every Tuesday.) Gaga's last studio album, 2011's "Born This Way," was led by its title track, which debuted at No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart with 448,000 downloads after only three days on sale, according to Nielsen SoundScan. (It hit retail on an off-cycle Friday, instead of the usual Tuesday.) In its second chart week (and first full sales week), it moved 509,000 downloads. Perry's last new album, 2010's "Teenage Dream," was ushered in by the single "California Gurls." It bowed at No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart with 294,000. Perry has sold more than 400,000 in two previous weeks: when "Firework" shifted 509,000 over the busy post-Christmas week of 2010, and when "Part of Me" debuted in 2012 (411,000). If both "Applause" and "Roar" debut with sales larger than 200,000, it will be the first time two songs have sold that many copies in their debut week since last October. On the Digital Songs chart dated Oct. 20 (reflecting the sales week ending Oct. 7), three new tunes arrived with sales exceeding 200,000: One Direction's "Live While We're Young" (341,000), Taylor Swift's "Red" (312,000) and Adele's "Skyfall" (261,000).
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Aug 18, 2013 14:31:27 GMT -5
I predicted it would be a smash 1 month ago. But Rocky laughed at me that time! I don't tell a lie josh! Seriously, who said it won't "smash"? Everyone here thought and still think this will be a big hit. #1 =/= smash, and top 5 =/= flop. This sure will be a big top five hit, but #1 is out of question counting in the current direction of pop radio. This should reach top 5 on pop, top 10 on alternative, top 10 on HAC. I disagree. |
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 18, 2013 14:32:12 GMT -5
Wow! Roar just keeps exceeding Billboard's expectations! On kworb, it's gotten few green updates recently and has the main version of Blurred Lines down below .6 for the first time in over a day. It's held up much better than I (and apparently Billboard) had expected!
Amazing. :'(
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2013 14:45:33 GMT -5
I predicted it would be a smash 1 month ago. But Rocky laughed at me that time! I don't tell a lie josh! Seriously, who said it won't "smash"? Everyone here thought and still think this will be a big hit. #1 =/= smash, and top 5 =/= flop. This sure will be a big top five hit, but #1 is out of question counting in the current direction of pop radio. This should reach top 5 on pop, top 10 on alternative, top 10 on HAC. pleaseeee stop lying Mr.Rocky! |
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C.Ro
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Post by C.Ro on Aug 18, 2013 15:21:13 GMT -5
Airplay counts for the Hot 100 until sunday or monday?
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 18, 2013 15:29:02 GMT -5
^Tuesday (Wed.-Tues. period for audience-based charts). With 4,000-odd posts, you should know that by now. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2013 15:39:35 GMT -5
That's quite a lot for "Roar," but depending on how much BL falls this week, it still might not be enough to unseat him from the top of the Hot 100.
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Post by Rocky on Aug 18, 2013 15:41:44 GMT -5
"Please, don't tag me, please don't tag me / I always say how I won't tag you / but you're always gonna come right back to this..."Seriously, who said it won't "smash"? Everyone here thought and still think this will be a big hit. #1 =/= smash, and top 5 =/= flop. This sure will be a big top five hit, but #1 is out of question counting in the current direction of pop radio. This should reach top 5 on pop, top 10 on alternative, top 10 on HAC. Sorry! I won't tag you anymore! Don't take it personally. :) Something Hot 100-related (my prediction for next week's top 10):Digital sales01 - Roar - 623,000 02 - Blurred Lines - 325,000 03 - Applause - 258,000 04 - That's My Kind Of Night - 185,000 05 - Holy Grail - 166,000 06 - We Can't Stop - 152,000 07 - Wake Me Up - 139,000 08 - Crash My Party - 130,000 09 - Radioactive - 112,000 10 - Summertime Sadness - 106,000 Hot 10001 - Blurred Lines - 70,860 = (325,000/12)+(220,000,000/7,500)+(6,500,000/450) = 27083+29333+14444 02 - Roar - 68,362 = (623,000/12)+( 65,000,000/7,500)+(3,500,000/450) = 51917+ 8667+ 7778 03 - Applause - 36,877 = (258,000/12)+( 32,000,000/7,500)+(5,000,000/450) = 21500+ 4266+11111 04 - We Can't Stop - 34,448 = (152,000/12)+( 47,000,000/7,500)+(7,000,000/450) = 12666+ 6266+15556 05 - Radioactive - 33,955 = (112,000/12)+(118,000,000/7,500)+(4,000,000/450) = 9333+15733+ 8889 06 - Holy Grail - 30,833 = (166,000/12)+( 65,000,000/7,500)+(3,750,000/450) = 13833+ 8667+ 8333 07 - Get Lucky - 30,500 = ( 98,000/12)+(105,000,000/7,500)+(3,750,000/450) = 8167+14000+ 8333 08 - Cups - 29,122 = (102,000/12)+( 88,000,000/7,500)+(4,000,000/450) = 8500+11733+ 8889 09 - Treasure - 25,644 = ( 80,000/12)+(109,000,000/7,500)+(2,000,000/450) = 6667+14533+ 4444 10 - Wake Me Up - 23,539 = (139,000/12)+( 23,000,000/7,500)+(4,000,000/450) = 11583+ 3067+ 8889 "Applause" can be anywhere between #3 and #7, but top 5 is very likely. "Roar" will be #2, but I think close to "Blurred Lines". |
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Post by Rocky on Aug 18, 2013 15:45:15 GMT -5
pleaseeee stop lying Mr.Rocky! I'm not lying. Look, I bolded you the important part. That post is pure positive, and top 10 = smash. |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 18, 2013 16:21:30 GMT -5
^You're predicting higher sales for both "Roar" and "Applause" than what Billboard projected? The airplay also may be a little higher than what the BDS numbers will look like. The streaming numbers, as always, are unknown, given that YouTube posts worldwide counts. Should be an interesting week. :) |
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C.Ro
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Post by C.Ro on Aug 18, 2013 16:22:22 GMT -5
^Tuesday (Wed.-Tues. period for audience-based charts). With 4,000-odd posts, you should know that by now.  Thanks :) |
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Post by Rocky on Aug 18, 2013 16:51:00 GMT -5
^You're predicting higher sales for both "Roar" and "Applause" than what Billboard projected? The airplay also may be a little higher than what the BDS numbers will look like. The streaming numbers, as always, are unknown, given that YouTube posts worldwide counts. Should be an interesting week. :) I tried my best. :( For the sales pf "Roar", "Blurred Lines" and "Applause" was going with my estimations I made on Thursday, but I was lazy to change them cause it'd change the other titles too. Still doesn't make a big difference, everything stays around those positions. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2013 16:52:54 GMT -5
How are you predicting 258k for Gaga when Billboard is sure that it'll be between 200-225k? Katy is very high too, they're predicting 525-550k and it's already Sunday, it won't climb that much even with good longevity.
Could Luke Bryan debut above Gaga?
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Post by Rocky on Aug 18, 2013 17:08:40 GMT -5
Could Luke Bryan debut above Gaga? Mmmm... no? Seriously it can't. If you meant the digital songs. "That's My Kind of Night" IS currently above her, but not that much and she had a 2:1 on the song for a while. They will be closer than my numbers (lol), but I don't think so. You can quote on me. |
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markb
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Post by markb on Aug 18, 2013 19:16:10 GMT -5
My final prediction!!
Roar: (560.000/12) + (75.000.000/7.500) + (5.600.000/450) = 69.112
Blurred Lines: (305.000/12) + (225.000.000/7.500) + (6.100.000/450) = 68.972
Very close obviously, But I hope luck is on your side Katy! :))
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2013 19:26:27 GMT -5
BL isn't likely to drop that much in streaming in just one week.
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Aug 18, 2013 19:29:30 GMT -5
How are you predicting 258k for Gaga when Billboard is sure that it'll be between 200-225k? Katy is very high too, they're predicting 525-550k and it's already Sunday, it won't climb that much even with good longevity. Could Luke Bryan debut above Gaga? Billboard's predictions shouldn't be taken that seriously. It was obvious from the get go that Katy was going for 500k+, but they were conservative. Wouldn't be surprised if Katy sells 550k+. Gaga is a different matter though, but I'm sure she could push for a little more than 225k. My sales predictions: Katy Perry - 565k Robin Thicke - 300k Lady Gaga - 235k I think Katy might scrape in at #1 or be very close at #2. |
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Aug 18, 2013 21:07:44 GMT -5
Basically next week consits of
Roar vs Blurred Lines for #1
We Cant Stop vs Applause for #3
Wake Me Up vs Summertime Sadness for #10
Katy selling either 550k or 600k
Correct me if I'm wrong
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Aug 18, 2013 21:10:28 GMT -5
Basically next week consits of Roar vs Blurred Lines for #1 We Cant Stop vs Applause for #3 Wake Me Up vs Summertime Sadness for #10 Katy selling either 550k or 600k Correct me if I'm wrong Lorde exterminating the "competition" |
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Aug 18, 2013 21:15:35 GMT -5
Basically next week consits of Roar vs Blurred Lines for #1 We Cant Stop vs Applause for #3 Wake Me Up vs Summertime Sadness for #10 Katy selling either 550k or 600k Correct me if I'm wrong Lorde exterminating the "competition" Her song may be amazing but this week its not competition this week |
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Aug 18, 2013 21:18:08 GMT -5
Lorde exterminating the "competition" Her song may be amazing but this week its not competition this week I forgot this was the Billboard Hot 10  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2013 6:52:42 GMT -5
where is onerepublic "counting stars" in airplay?
It's gonna be one of the best songs of 1R!
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 19, 2013 8:06:00 GMT -5
^It's not on the 75 position Hot 100 Airplay chart.
#21 on the Adult Top 40 chart which is all airplay.
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