Billboard Hot 100 : 8/31/2013

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2013 8:06:00 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

^It's not on the 75 position Hot 100 Airplay chart.

#21 on the Adult Top 40 chart which is all airplay.

It's too bad! :'(

[Deleted]

No airplay update?

[nivekwriter1]

Aug 19, 2013 9:56:21 GMT -5 @smirjal said:

No airplay update?

Not yet, but here's a list with 10 high rising radio songs of today according to Kworb, whose numbers are usually close to the real ones.

ROBIN THICKE - Blurred Lines f/T.I. & Pharrell: 290.379 (+ 1.334)
CAPITAL CITIES - Safe and Sound: 111.411 (+ 1.782)
LANA DEL REY - Summertime Sadness: 61.687 (+ 1.723)
LADY GAGA - Applause: 45.439 (+ 5.016)
DRAKE - Hold On We're Going Home f/Majid Jordan: 34.847 (+ 2.091)
PINK - True Love f/Lily Allen: 32.915 (+ 1.529)
AVICII - Wake Me Up: 32.483 (+ 2.448)
BLAKE SHELTON - Mine Would Be You: 27.244 (+ 1.008)
ONE DIRECTION - Best Song Ever: 23.593 (+ 1.032)

Biggest drop

KATY PERRY - Roar: 75.486 (- 8.310)

[Deleted]

ROBIN THICKE - Blurred Lines f/T.I. & Pharrell: 290.379 (+ 1.334)

[nivekwriter1]

Google Hits: ONLY US

I'm expecting Gaga to take over tomorrow, because the release of her video.

Today's update (8/19/2013)

TOP 20

#	Artist & Song	Google hits today
1	Avicii Wake Me Up	83,900 (+ 4,100)
2	Lady Gaga Applause	75,600 (+ 25,600)
3	Robin Thicke ft. T.I. & Pharrell Blurred Lines	72,200 (- 4,000)
4	Miley Cyrus We Can't Stop	56,700 (- 2,300)
5	One Direction Best Song Ever	44,600 (- 6,500)
6	Capital Cities Safe and Sound	41,900 (+/- 0)
7	Daft Punk ft. Pharrell Williams Get Lucky	41,800 (+ 1,100)
8	Katy Perry Roar	39,600 (- 500)
9	Imagine Dragons Radioactive	39,300 (- 2,200)
10	Bruno Mars Treasure	36,00 (- 1,500)
11	Ellie Goulding Burn	34,600 (+ 2,600)
12	Justin Timberlake Mirrors	32,500 (- 3,900)
13	Rihanna ft. Mikky Ekko Stay	29,200 (+ 6,600)
14	Drake ft. Majid Jordan Hold On, We're Going Home	28,300 (- 3,000)
15	P!nk ft. Lily Allen True Love	25,900 (+ 500)
16	Jay-Z ft. Justin Timberlake Holy Grail	24,900 (- 2,600)
17	Naughty Boy ft. Sam Smith La La La	24,100 (- 800)
18	P!nk ft. Nate Ruess Just Give Me A Reason	23,900 (+ 1,600)
19	Passenger Let Her Go	21,700 (- 550)
20	Robin Thicke ft. Kendrick Lamar  Give It 2 U	21,600 (+ 500)

Other songs

Artist & Song	Google hits today
Luke Bryan That's My Kind Of Night	20,500 (- 1,500)
PSY Gangnam Style	20,500 (+ 200)
Lorde Royals	15,00 (- 200)
John Newman Love Me Again	13,300 (- 500)
Ariana Grande ft. Mac Miller The Way	12,700 (+ 900)
Florida-Georgia Line ft. Nelly Cruise	12,300 (+ 1,900)
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Ray Dalton Can't Hold Us	11,000 (- 500)
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Mary Lambert   Same Love	10,600 (- 12,000)
Zedd ft. Foxes Clarity	10,400 (+ 100)
Anna Kendrick Cups (When I'm Gone)	9,460 (+ 1,120)
Maroon 5 Love Somebody	8,800 (- 660)
Jason Derulo Talk Dirty	4,350 (- 590)
Phillip Phillip Gone, Gone, Gone	3,670 (+ 910)
Lady Gaga Burqa	2,510 (- 120)

[popstop]

^ What is this information? It's interesting, but I don't know what it tells us in respect to the H100. I suppose it measures some sort of popularity, but a google hit doesn't mean someone chose to then listen to the song. They could just be reading about it or checking lyrics.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Can you imagine if, for some reason iTunes wasn't counting some sales of Applause because of the pre-order business and with that and streaming, it actually debuted higher than Roar on the Hot 100. Does anyone think the internet would implode if that, for some STRANGE reason, happened?

[popstop]

This thread would be epic if that happened. Not going to hold my breath on it. I wish the sales for Gaga were stronger.

[Verisimilitude]

“ROAR” IS RIGHT: It looks like Katy Perry’s “Roar” has had an even bigger first week than expected, with a humongous 550k. That’ll be enough to knock Robin Thicke’s “Blurred Lines” out of the top perch, where it’s been a fixture all summer. That’s a huge win for Steve Barnett’s Capitol Music Group and for the brainy Perry herself, who’s very much the captain or her spacecraft. Meanwhile, Lady Gaga’s “Applause” is headed for a first week in the neighborhood of 225k. Round one to Perry in the latest Duel of the Divas. (8/19a)

[Deleted]

Is this from Billboard? Surely they couldnt be talking about digital songs since it was dethroned just 2 or 3 weeks ago by 1D. Katys holding up really well, no wonder predictions keep rising. Its a week after release and Blurred Lines is back down to 0,55.

This is going to be the third biggest debut of all time, correct? After Right Round and We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together. Potentially fourth if we assume Born This Way would have sold more in it's first 7 days.

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2013 11:34:46 GMT -5 Verisimilitude said:

“ROAR” IS RIGHT: It looks like Katy Perry’s “Roar” has had an even bigger first week than expected, with a humongous 550k. That’ll be enough to knock Robin Thicke’s “Blurred Lines” out of the top perch, where it’s been a fixture all summer. That’s a huge win for Steve Barnett’s Capitol Music Group and for the brainy Perry herself, who’s very much the captain or her spacecraft. Meanwhile, Lady Gaga’s “Applause” is headed for a first week in the neighborhood of 225k. Round one to Perry in the latest Duel of the Divas. (8/19a)

I can't....


And it's still #1 on Itunes....

Meanwhile, Lady Gaga’s “Applause” is headed for a first week in the neighborhood of 225k.

[Au$tin]

Aug 19, 2013 11:58:37 GMT -5 @jback said:

Meanwhile, Lady Gaga’s “Applause” is headed for a first week in the neighborhood of 225k.

This may possibly be one of the best uses of a gif ever.

[popstop]

550K is enough to knock Robin to #2? They have to be thinking of Digital songs, not the H100?

[ss8]

yeah, where is that article from? lol. Cant seem to find it anywhere (but it reeks from a Hits Daily kind of article). Theyre usually vague while BB is more concrete and provides more info etc.. I believe shell get the 550k ish but think she'll barely miss #1 on the Hot 100.

[RadioBeatz]

I hope some kind of 'miracle' happens and "Roar" dethrones "Blurred Lines" on the Hot 100.

[areyoureadytojump]

Aug 19, 2013 14:00:21 GMT -5 ss8 said:

yeah, where is that article from? lol. Cant seem to find it anywhere (but it reeks from a Hits Daily kind of article). Theyre usually vague while BB is more concrete and provides more info etc.. I believe shell get the 550k ish but think she'll barely miss #1 on the Hot 100.

www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/rumormill.cgi

[SPRΞΞ]

i'm not expecting #1, but I think #2 is certainly a lock.

[badrobot]

So Katy will clearly be higher on the chart than Gaga this week, and I have no doubt that Katy's song will be the bigger hit overall, but it would be kind of incredible if video streaming pushed Applause to #1 for one week (on the 9/7 chart) and Katy got stuck at #2.

Although a big part of me just wants Robin to hang on for another 6+ weeks just for the sake of a new record.

[HolidayGuy]

A lot of the video views will be non-USA, so it will be interesting to see where the final numbers fall. "We Can't Stop" had something like 9m-10m U.S. views and jumped to, what, No. 5 after the video release? Airplay wasn't so high at first, but it was up there in sales.

[markb]

Monday Airplay Updates:

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 282.806 (+ 1.094)
2. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 151.543 (- 0.099)
3. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 151.460 (+ 0.917)
4. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 139.372 (- 0.264)
5. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 131.013 (- 3.842)
6. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 125.413 (- 0.500)
7. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 112.909 (+ 0.453)
8. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 109.291 (+ 1.737)
9. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 106.968 (- 0.088)
10. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 103.630 (- 1.389)
11. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 88.246 (- 0.693)
12. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 84.759 (+ 0.942)
13. JASON DERULO – The Other Side: 81.559 (- 1.502) ▲
14. KATY PERRY – Roar: 75.501 (- 8.306)▼
15. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can’t Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 74.907 (- 1.410)
16. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 72.768 (- 0.020)
17. PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 72.139 (- 0.516)
18. BRETT ELDREDGE – Don’t Ya: 66.953 (+ 0.005)
19. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Take Back The Night: 63.540 (- 0.159)
20. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 61.841 (+ 1.721)
Other Updates:
MILEY CYRUS – We Can’t Stop: 61.302 (+ 0.551)
KEITH URBAN – Little Bit Of Everything: 60.981 (+ 0.048)
RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 60.785(- 0.662)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – See You Again: 60.768 (+ 0.528)
EASTON CORBIN – All Over The Road: 55.492 (+ 0.003)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 52.413 (+ 0.680)
J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 49.623 (+ 0.565)
LADY GAGA – Applause: 45.707 (+ 4.861)
KENNY CHESNEY – When I See This Bar: 35.518 (+ 0.038)
DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 32.787 (+ 2.108)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 32.883 (+ 0.890)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 33.522 (+ 1.528)
AVICII – Wake Me Up: 32.497 (+ 2.450)
LORDE – Royals: 28.336 (+ 1.126)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 25.281 (+ 0.369)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Turn The Night Up: 24.921 (+ 0.673)
SARA BAREILLES – Brave: 27.323
ONE DIRECTION – Best Song Ever: 24.974 (+ 1.076)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 19.947 (+ 0.083)
NEIGHBOURHOOD – Sweater Weather: 16.813
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 16.573 (+ 0.592)
MIRANDA LAMBERT – All Kinds Of Kinds: 14.122
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 13.797 (+ 0.312)
FLO RIDA – Can’t Believe It f/Pitbull: 10.798 (+ 0.241)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 10.243 (+ 0.300)
KELLY CLARKSON – Tie It Up: 9.468
KINGS OF LEON – Supersoaker: 8.083
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 6.559 (+ 0.095)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 6.420 (+ 0.874)
KREWELLA – Live For The Night: 6.093
CAGE THE ELEPHANT – Come A Little Closer: 4.650
PHOENIX – Trying To Be Cool: 4.604 (+0.049)
DEMI LOVATO – Made In The USA: 5.452
ARIANA GRANDE – Baby I: 4.920
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 2.857
THIRTY SECONDS TO MARS – City Of Angels: 2.268
IGGY AZALEA – Work: 1.887
DAFT PUNK – Lose Yourself To Dance: 1.268
ICONA POP – All Night: 1.251
MIKA – Popular Song f/Ariana Grande: 1.244
FALL OUT BOY – Alone Together: 1.185
EMINEM – Survival: 1.074
THE WANTED – We Own The Night: 0.901
JOHN MAYER – Who You Love: 0.376
AVRIL LAVIGNE – Rock N Roll: 0.023
I put this one cause no one didn't want to! I hope I made everything right! :)

[ss8]

I'm still not at all a fan of this new chart 'formula'. It's just so shady and complex. Really should've just stayed airplay and sales (more much more accurate, clean and legit). Streaming, You Tube etc..views are basically controlled by loon fans who have nothing else to do but stream and watch videos all day to increase views for free- all w/ the goal of getting that song a higher chart placement. It totally screws up a songs chance to possibly have more weeks at #1 or miss the Top 10 etc..fair and square. Huge on the radio and sales/iTunes= true, legit #s.

[HolidayGuy]

^There's probably something in place that can pick up on refreshing practices, a huge number of views from one outlet, etc.


Katy Perry, Lady Gaga Soar At Radio Ahead Of Hot 100 Vaults
By Gary Trust | August 19, 2013 3:35 PM EDT

Perry's 'Roar' and Lady Gaga's 'Applause' scale the Pop Songs airplay chart, helping set the stage for their expected lofty ranks on this week's Hot 100

In its first full week of airplay, Katy Perry's "Roar" rockets up Billboard's Nielsen BDS-based Pop Songs chart, while Lady Gaga's "Applause," released last Monday (Aug. 12), blasts in as the chart's highest debut by a woman this year.

The airplay, meanwhile, bodes well for the songs' fortunes on the Billboard Hot 100, highlights of which will be revealed on Wednesday (Aug. 21) on Billboard.com.

RADIO GAGA (AND PERRY)

"Roar" debuted at No. 34 on Pop Songs last week after less than two days of airplay. This week (reflecting the Aug. 12-18 tracking period), it flies to No. 15 with Greatest Gainer honors (up 4,248 plays, to 5,910). Meanwhile, "Applause" arrives at No. 20, representing the best bow by a solo female since Taylor Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" began at No. 18 the week of Sept. 1, 2012. "Applause" starts with 3,566 first-week plays; it received hourly spins on participating Clear Channel Media and Entertainment-owned radio stations on Aug. 12 (as "Roar" did the previous day; the airplay contributed to last week's chart).

Impressively for each song, of the Pop Songs panel's 164 stations, 162 played "Roar" in the past seven days, while 158 spun "Applause."

"Applause" returns Lady Gaga to Pop Songs for the first time since 2011, when "Marry the Night" became the fifth top 15 hit from her last studio album, "Born This Way."

"Applause" introduces "ARTPOP," due Nov. 11. "Roar" previews Perry's "Prism" (Oct. 22).

"Roar" rises 38-16 on Adult Pop Songs and enters at No. 36 on Rhythmic, while "Applause" starts on the former tally at No. 35.

HOT (100) FORECAST

As reported yesterday, sources suggest that "Roar" could sell between 525,000 and 550,000 downloads when its first-week sales are tabulated. "Applause" is projected to sell between 200,000 and 225,000 in its opening frame.

With the Hot 100 to be released on Wednesday marking the first encompassing each song's first full week of airplay, sales and streaming (the three metrics that feed the Hot 100's data pool), what ranks could be expected for "Roar" and "Applause"?

"Roar" is currently at No. 14 on the building Radio Songs chart with 47 million all-format audience impressions. "Applause" is set to start perhaps just outside the airplay chart's top 40, currently boasting 23 million in audience.

Partial-week streaming figures show "Roar" at 3.2 million U.S. streams and "Applause" at 2.5 million, according to BDS. Both figures represent audio streams and YouTube plays for lyric videos and user-generated content. Gaga's official video for "Applause" premiered earlier today and will affect next week's chart. (Streaming data for this week's chart covers the week ending Aug. 18.)

Based on the rough numbers above, Perry could challenge for the Hot 100's summit (vaulting from its airplay-only-fueled No. 85 debut last week), while Lady Gaga is likely to debut in the top 10.

Can Perry soar to No. 1? Key are sales of Robin Thicke's "Blurred Lines" (featuring T.I. and Pharrell), which has led the Hot 100 for 10 weeks. The song will easily maintain its command on Radio Songs, which last week was fueled by a record-extending 227 million impressions. With such an expected large lead in airplay again for "Lines," the battle for No. 1 on the Hot 100 will seemingly come down to the download sales of "Lines." (In a potential roadblock, Perry simply has the misfortune of running up against the track with the biggest weekly radio audience dating to the Radio Songs chart's launch in 1990.)

Last week, "Lines" sold a hefty 346,000, according to Nielsen SoundScan, although the sum marked a 14% decline. This week’s sales projections for "Lines," according to industry sources, are for between 260,000 and 280,000. Overall streams for "Lines" should be near 7 million, down slightly from its sum last week (7.6 million).

So where does our prediction stand? Too close to call, with two days of radio airplay remaining, sales to be finalized and streaming data for the entire week yet to be compiled. (Sorry! But it simply appears that close a race …)

Again, visit Billboard.com on Wednesday (Aug. 21) to find out how all three songs fare … and who'll be No. 1 on the Hot 100.

Additional reporting by Keith Caulfield and Silvio Pietroluongo

[ss8]

I think Robin will barely get it (like they said due to sales being 'just' good enough but more so due to his massive airplay #s). That'll end up being his firewall. Im gonna say he has a 55-60% chance but just enough to get another week. Next week, Katy should get it for sure. Dunno how BL could stay at #1 after this week w/ airplay and esp. sales starting to decline.

[Deleted]

Katy = 550000/12 (45833.33) [phone]/7500 (6933.33) + 3200000/450 (7111.11) = (59877)
Robin = 270000/12 (22500) + 230000000/7500 (30666.66) + 7000000/450 (15555.55) = (68722)

Seems in favor of Robin

Even if Katy sold 580k and Robin sold 260k, thats still only 62377 for Katy and 67888 for Robin.

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2013 15:17:42 GMT -5 ss8 said:

I think Robin will barely get it (like they said due to sales being 'just' good enough but more so due to his massive airplay #s). That'll end up being his firewall. Im gonna say he has a 55-60% chance but just enough to get another week. Next week, Katy should get it for sure. Dunno how BL could stay at #1 after this week w/ airplay and esp. sales starting to decline.

Katy's sales are going to plummet next week, while Robin will still have massive airplay to back himself up. I think he's safe for at least another 3 weeks. I think Roar will dethrone Blurred Lines the week of the video release, if it doesn't do it by then.

[Envoirment]

Aug 19, 2013 15:18:11 GMT -5 Codex said:

Katy = 550000/12 (45833.33) [phone]/7500 (6933.33) + 3200000/450 (7111.11) = (59877)
Robin = 270000/12 (22500) + 230000000/7500 (30666.66) + 7000000/450 (15555.55) = (68722)

Seems in favor of Robin

Even if Katy sold 580k and Robin sold 260k, thats still only 62377 for Katy and 67888 for Robin.

Katy's streaming is going to be higher as they said "Partial-week streaming", so most likely is the first few days or so of streaming? If so, it could be VERY close. I think it'll be one of the closest battles in a while.

[HolidayGuy]

Will sales for "Roar" "plummet," though? Guess we have to watch how it performs throughout the week. Pop bars for "Blurred Lines" are at a little more than .60 with all versions combined. Nonetheless, if BL was dethroned, it very well may return to the top.

[Deleted]

Oh, I misread that part. Partial-week? Well, if she manages to get 7 million streaming, that'll add 8444 points to both numbers. Wow! With the first set that would mean they have near identical points. :o And with the second set it would be a clear lead. I didn't realize but her lyric video already has 14 million views on youtube? That could be 7 million but for all we know it could be 4 million, especially seeing how well Roar is doing globally.

[leoapp]

OMG, will definitely become one of the closest #1 Hot 100 battles ever...
What was the last time this happened? WYL vs Womanizer was also interesting

[popstop]

Born This Way beat ET for a final week at #1 thanks to vinyl sales of all things.