Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2013 10:34:02 GMT -5
Since we're nearing the end of the year, I would like some predictions on the year end Hot 100. I prefer if it was a prediction on the entire list, not just the Top 50. it can be as of this week's chart or what you think it'll look like when all is said and done.
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Post by Rocky on Oct 21, 2013 10:57:24 GMT -5
You could've asked in Joseph's or mine thread, but... as of this week with my formula.
- Note: the real Billboard Year-end Hot 100 is composed by adding up the sales + airplay and ??streaming?? that occurred during the song's chart run. Now, we don't know how will they deal with the mid-year formula change when they added youtube. If they have the data from 2012 November on, they can include it. They can do the same thing they did in 2012 when on-demand streaming was added in March - counting just airplay+sales. They can also count airplay + sales + streaming. We don't know.
+ I'm confident that "Blurred Lines" will be the #1 song of the year, but I didn't weight the higher than usual points for it.
1 Thrift Shop Macklemore & Ryan Lewis feat. Wanz 5309
2 Radioactive Imagine Dragons 4505
3 Blurred Lines Robin Thicke feat. T.I. & Pharrell Williams 4238
4 Can't Hold Us Macklemore & Ryan Lewis feat. Ray Dalton 4050
5 Locked Out Of Heaven Bruno Mars 3931
6 Just Give Me a Reason P!nk feat. Nate Ruess 3768
7 Cruise Florida-Georgia Line 3734
8 Ho Hey The Lumineers 3700
9 When I Was Your Man Bruno Mars 3677
10 Mirrors Justin Timberlake 3444
11 Stay Rihanna 3209
12 I Knew You Were Trouble Taylor Swift 3137
13 Get Lucky Daft Punk feat. Pharrell Williams 3076
14 Suit &Tie Justin Timberlake feat. Jay-Z 2522
15 Diamonds Rihanna 2488
16 Cups (When I'm Gone) Anna Kendrick 2468
17 Scream & Shout will.i.am & Britney Spears 2448
18 Sail Awolnation 2412
19 We Can't Stop Miley Cyrus 2378
20 Harlem Shake Baauer 2336
21 I Love It Icona Pop feat. Charli XCX 2211
22 Don't You Worry Child Swedish House Mafia feat. John Martin 2206
23 The Way Ariana Grande feat. Mac Miller 2145
24 Clarity Zedd 2144
25 Treasure Bruno Mars 2059
26 Come & Get It Selena Gomez 2010
27 Started From The Bottom Drake 1999
28 One More Night Maroon 5 1978
29 My Songs Know What You Did In The Dark Fall Out Boy 1914
30 Daylight Maroon 5 1899
31 Feel This Moment Pitbull feat. Christina Aguilera 1889
32 Beauty And a Beat Justin Bieber feat. Nicki Minaj 1872
33 Power Trip J. Cole feat. Miguel 1866
34 f**kin' Problems A$AP Rocky Featuring Drake, 2 Chainz & Kendrick Lamar 1849
35 It's Time Imagine Dragons 1829
36 Sweet Nothing Calvin Harris feat. Florence Welch 1828
37 Home Phillip Phillips 1819
38 Love Me Lil Wayne feat. Drake 1784
39 Holy Grail Jay-Z feat. Justin Timberlake 1768
40 I Will Wait Mumford & Sons 1768
41 Royals Lorde 1713
42 Gangnam Style PSY 1691
43 Safe & Sound Capital Cities 1678
44 Bad Wale feat. Tiara Thomas 1668
45 Roar Katy Perry 1666
46 Gone, Gone, Gone Phillip Phillips 1665
47 Girl On Fire Alicia Keys feat. Nicki Minaj 1664
48 Love Somebody Maroon 5 1647
49 Wagon Wheel Darius Rucker 1645
50 Try P!nk 1626
51 I Need Your Love Calvin Harris feat. Ellie Goulding 1625
52 Same Love Macklemore & Ryan Lewis feat. Mary Lambert 1614
53 Heart Attack Demi Lovato 1598
54 Some Nights Fun. 1587
55 Die Young Ke$ha 1580
56 Wake Me Up! Avicii feat. Aloe Blacc 1522
57 Little Talks Of Monsters And Men 1506
58 Boys 'Round Here Blake Shelton Featuring Pistol Annies & Friends 1500
59 Catch My Breath Kelly Clarkson 1400
60 The Other Side Jason Derulo 1392
61 Crash My Party Luke Bryan 1383
62 I Cry Flo Rida 1360
63 I Want Crazy Hunter Hayes 1267
64 Summertime Sadness Lana Del Rey 1242
65 Pour It Up Rihanna 1233
66 Adorn Miguel 1226
67 22 Taylor Swift 1217
68 Body Party Ciara 1216
69 Swimming Pools (Drank) Kendrick Lamar 1216
70 Hall Of Fame The Script feat. Will.i.am 1189
71 The A-Team Ed Sheeran 1178
72 Highway Don't Care Tim McGraw feat. Taylor Swift 1178
73 Wrecking Ball Miley Cyrus 1167
74 Sure Be Cool If You Did Blake Shelton 1159
75 Carry On Fun. 1142
76 Wanted Hunter Hayes 1129
77 U.O.E.N.O Rocko Featuring Future & Rick Ross 1116
78 Troublemaker Olly Murs feat. Flo Rida 1115
79 Let Me Love You Ne-Yo 1099
80 Hold On, We're Going Home Drake feat. Majid Jordan 1079
81 Downtown Lady Antebellum 1077
82 Applause Lady Gaga 1075
83 Better Dig Two The Band Perry 1066
84 I'm Different 2 Chainz 1059
85 Mama's Broken Heart Miranda Lambert 1055
86 Next To Me Emeli Sandé 1034
87 Runnin' Outta Moonlight Randy Houser 1033
88 #Beautiful Mariah Carey feat. Miguel 1027
89 Don't Stop The Party Pitbull feat. TJR 1016
90 Redneck Crazy Tyler Farr 1015
91 Rich As Fuck Lil Wayne feat. 2 Chainz 1001
92 Get Your Shine On Florida-Georgia Line 1000
93 Round Here Florida-Georgia Line 976
94 Bugatti Ace Hood feat. Future & Rick Ross 951
95 Poetic Justice Kendrick Lamar feat. Drake 945
96 Best Song Ever One Direction 931
97 #ThatPOWER will.i.am feat. Justin Bieber 927
98 Crooked Smile J. Cole feat. TLC 918
99 Clique Kanye West, Jay-Z, Big Sean 903
100 Don't Ya Brett Eldredge 898
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2013 11:25:46 GMT -5
You could've asked in Joseph's or mine thread, but... as of this week with my formula. - Note: the real Billboard Year-end Hot 100 is composed by adding up the sales + airplay and ??streaming?? that occurred during the song's chart run. Now, we don't know how will they deal with the mid-year formula change when they added youtube. If they have the data from 2012 November on, they can include it. They can do the same thing they did in 2012 when on-demand streaming was added in March - counting just airplay+sales. They can also count airplay + sales + streaming. We don't know. + I'm confident that "Blurred Lines" will be the #1 song of the year, but I didn't weight the higher than usual points for it. 1 Thrift Shop Macklemore & Ryan Lewis feat. Wanz 5309 2 Radioactive Imagine Dragons 4505
3 Blurred Lines Robin Thicke feat. T.I. & Pharrell Williams 4238
4 Can't Hold Us Macklemore & Ryan Lewis feat. Ray Dalton 40505 Locked Out Of Heaven Bruno Mars 3931 6 Just Give Me a Reason P!nk feat. Nate Ruess 3768
7 Cruise Florida-Georgia Line 37348 Ho Hey The Lumineers 3700 9 When I Was Your Man Bruno Mars 3677 10 Mirrors Justin Timberlake 3444
11 Stay Rihanna 3209
12 I Knew You Were Trouble Taylor Swift 3137 13 Get Lucky Daft Punk feat. Pharrell Williams 307614 Suit &Tie Justin Timberlake feat. Jay-Z 2522 15 Diamonds Rihanna 2488 16 Cups (When I'm Gone) Anna Kendrick 246817 Scream & Shout will.i.am & Britney Spears 2448 18 Sail Awolnation 2412
19 We Can't Stop Miley Cyrus 237820 Harlem Shake Baauer 2336 21 I Love It Icona Pop feat. Charli XCX 2211 22 Don't You Worry Child Swedish House Mafia feat. John Martin 2206 23 The Way Ariana Grande feat. Mac Miller 2145 24 Clarity Zedd 2144
25 Treasure Bruno Mars 205926 Come & Get It Selena Gomez 2010 27 Started From The Bottom Drake 1999 28 One More Night Maroon 5 1978 29 My Songs Know What You Did In The Dark Fall Out Boy 1914 30 Daylight Maroon 5 1899 31 Feel This Moment Pitbull feat. Christina Aguilera 1889 32 Beauty And a Beat Justin Bieber feat. Nicki Minaj 1872 33 Power Trip J. Cole feat. Miguel 1866 34 f**kin' Problems A$AP Rocky Featuring Drake, 2 Chainz & Kendrick Lamar 1849 35 It's Time Imagine Dragons 1829 36 Sweet Nothing Calvin Harris feat. Florence Welch 1828 37 Home Phillip Phillips 1819 38 Love Me Lil Wayne feat. Drake 1784 39 Holy Grail Jay-Z feat. Justin Timberlake 176840 I Will Wait Mumford & Sons 1768
41 Royals Lorde 1713
42 Gangnam Style PSY 1691 43 Safe & Sound Capital Cities 167844 Bad Wale feat. Tiara Thomas 1668 45 Roar Katy Perry 166646 Gone, Gone, Gone Phillip Phillips 1665 47 Girl On Fire Alicia Keys feat. Nicki Minaj 1664 48 Love Somebody Maroon 5 164749 Wagon Wheel Darius Rucker 1645 50 Try P!nk 1626 51 I Need Your Love Calvin Harris feat. Ellie Goulding 1625 52 Same Love Macklemore & Ryan Lewis feat. Mary Lambert 1614 53 Heart Attack Demi Lovato 1598 54 Some Nights Fun. 1587 55 Die Young Ke$ha 1580 56 Wake Me Up! Avicii feat. Aloe Blacc 152257 Little Talks Of Monsters And Men 1506 58 Boys 'Round Here Blake Shelton Featuring Pistol Annies & Friends 1500 59 Catch My Breath Kelly Clarkson 1400 60 The Other Side Jason Derulo 1392 61 Crash My Party Luke Bryan 1383 62 I Cry Flo Rida 1360 63 I Want Crazy Hunter Hayes 1267 64 Summertime Sadness Lana Del Rey 124265 Pour It Up Rihanna 1233 66 Adorn Miguel 1226 67 22 Taylor Swift 1217 68 Body Party Ciara 1216 69 Swimming Pools (Drank) Kendrick Lamar 1216 70 Hall Of Fame The Script feat. Will.i.am 1189 71 The A-Team Ed Sheeran 1178 72 Highway Don't Care Tim McGraw feat. Taylor Swift 1178 73 Wrecking Ball Miley Cyrus 116774 Sure Be Cool If You Did Blake Shelton 1159 75 Carry On Fun. 1142 76 Wanted Hunter Hayes 1129 77 U.O.E.N.O Rocko Featuring Future & Rick Ross 1116 78 Troublemaker Olly Murs feat. Flo Rida 1115 79 Let Me Love You Ne-Yo 1099 80 Hold On, We're Going Home Drake feat. Majid Jordan 107981 Downtown Lady Antebellum 1077 82 Applause Lady Gaga 107583 Better Dig Two The Band Perry 1066 84 I'm Different 2 Chainz 1059 85 Mama's Broken Heart Miranda Lambert 1055 86 Next To Me Emeli Sandé 1034 87 Runnin' Outta Moonlight Randy Houser 1033 88 #Beautiful Mariah Carey feat. Miguel 1027 89 Don't Stop The Party Pitbull feat. TJR 1016 90 Redneck Crazy Tyler Farr 101591 Rich As f**k Lil Wayne feat. 2 Chainz 1001 92 Get Your Shine On Florida-Georgia Line 1000 93 Round Here Florida-Georgia Line 97694 Bugatti Ace Hood feat. Future & Rick Ross 951 95 Poetic Justice Kendrick Lamar feat. Drake 945 96 Best Song Ever One Direction 93197 #ThatPOWER will.i.am feat. Justin Bieber 927 98 Crooked Smile J. Cole feat. TLC 91899 Clique Kanye West, Jay-Z, Big Sean 903 100 Don't Ya Brett Eldredge 898 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2013 11:29:06 GMT -5
i'm not seeing "Power Trip" in the top 50. And do you see "Get Lucky making the Top 5? Also, do you think "Demons", "Counting Stars", "Still Into You" and "Let Her Go" will make the list? Which songs that are on the current charts do you see making the list?
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Post by Rocky on Oct 21, 2013 11:38:25 GMT -5
i'm not seeing "Power Trip" in the top 50. And do you see "Get Lucky making the Top 5? Also, do you think "Demons", "Counting Stars", "Still Into You" and "Let Her Go" will make the list? Which songs that are on the current charts do you see making the list? I am seeing it in the top 50. No way. Yes. Yes. Maybe? Maybe? on which current chart? On last week's BB Hot 100? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2013 11:52:40 GMT -5
i'm not seeing "Power Trip" in the top 50. And do you see "Get Lucky making the Top 5? Also, do you think "Demons", "Counting Stars", "Still Into You" and "Let Her Go" will make the list? Which songs that are on the current charts do you see making the list? I am seeing it in the top 50. No way. Yes. Yes. Maybe? Maybe? on which current chart? On last week's BB Hot 100? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2013 11:53:20 GMT -5
i'm not seeing "Power Trip" in the top 50. And do you see "Get Lucky making the Top 5? Also, do you think "Demons", "Counting Stars", "Still Into You" and "Let Her Go" will make the list? Which songs that are on the current charts do you see making the list? I am seeing it in the top 50. No way. Yes. Yes. Maybe? Maybe? on which current chart? On last week's BB Hot 100? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2013 11:54:17 GMT -5
yes, that one.
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Post by when the pawn... on Oct 21, 2013 12:09:11 GMT -5
As far as top artists go, I think it could be like...
1 Justin Timberlake
2 Taylor Swift
3 Bruno Mars
4 Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
5 Rihanna
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Post by surreallife on Oct 21, 2013 14:44:54 GMT -5
Top 50? I can barely wrap my head around a Top 10. This is my best guess assuming that Billboard maintains its' policy of adding actual points a song accumulated each week it was on the HOT100.
1. Thrift Shop
2. Blurred Lines
3. Radioactive
4. Harlem Shake
5. Can't Hold Us
6. Just Give Me A Reason
7. Ho Hey
8. Locked Out Of Heaven
9. When I Was Your Man
10. Cruise
"I Knew You Were Trouble" could sneak into the #9 or 10 spot. I am assuming that the average point totals per song on the HOT 100 went up when YouTube streams were added on March 2nd, 2013 (similar to what occurred in the 2012 chart year).
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Kris
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Post by Kris on Oct 21, 2013 14:54:35 GMT -5
Harlem Shake at #4? It only spent 20 weeks on the chart.
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Post by Living Legend on Oct 21, 2013 15:41:15 GMT -5
As far as top artists go, I think it could be like... 1 Justin Timberlake 2 Taylor Swift 3 Bruno Mars 4 Macklemore & Ryan Lewis 5 Rihanna I think Justin and Taylor will be super close in points. He has her beat for Billboard 200 Artist but she'll have him beat for Hot 100 Artist. |
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Post by surreallife on Oct 21, 2013 17:34:35 GMT -5
Harlem Shake at #4? It only spent 20 weeks on the chart. Yeah but the first two weeks at #1 were huge, probably over 500,000 chart points. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2013 14:47:52 GMT -5
Top 50? I can barely wrap my head around a Top 10. This is my best guess assuming that Billboard maintains its' policy of adding actual points a song accumulated each week it was on the HOT100. 1. Thrift Shop 2. Blurred Lines 3. Radioactive 4. Harlem Shake 5. Can't Hold Us 6. Just Give Me A Reason 7. Ho Hey 8. Locked Out Of Heaven 9. When I Was Your Man 10. Cruise "I Knew You Were Trouble" could sneak into the #9 or 10 spot. I am assuming that the average point totals per song on the HOT 100 went up when YouTube streams were added on March 2nd, 2013 (similar to what occurred in the 2012 chart year). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2013 14:55:13 GMT -5
there's no way "Harlem Shake" even cracks the top 10, regardless of its chart performance. All the other songs below it have twice as many weeks as "Harlem Shake",if anything, it'll finish in the Top 20. "Get Lucky" will likely make the year end Top 10 because it peaked at #2 for 5 straight weeks in the summer, and usually that's a good sign you'll finish in the top 10. Also, no way "I Knew You Were Trouble" will crack the Top 10, it'll be in the 11 to 15 range.
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Zeebz
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Post by Zeebz on Oct 22, 2013 16:12:20 GMT -5
there's no way "Harlem Shake" even cracks the top 10, regardless of its chart performance. All the other songs below it have twice as many weeks as "Harlem Shake",if anything, it'll finish in the Top 20. "Get Lucky" will likely make the year end Top 10 because it peaked at #2 for 5 straight weeks in the summer, and usually that's a good sign you'll finish in the top 10. Also, no way "I Knew You Were Trouble" will crack the Top 10, it'll be in the 11 to 15 range. "Harlem Shake", like another poster stated, had massive points in it's first few weeks. It's first week at number one had 3 and a half time the points of a normal number one, and large amounts in other weeks as well. This will give it a high performance on the year end chart because it'll be like the song had anywhere from 10 to 13 weeks on top. That is huge, plus the other weeks it spent on the chart. It doesn't really matter that it had a relatively short life outside of the top ten, it'll be there because of those massive amounts of points. A potential reason for "Get Lucky" being outside is that it is younger than the other songs, and thus does not have as many points as the top ten songs. That also may be why "I Knew You Were Trouble." may sneak in, it's older and accrued many points during the pre-holiday buying season. Also, it had great longevity. "Get Lucky" is also falling harder than many of those. Number one songs typically have more points anyways. I'm not saying it couldn't make it, but it is unlikely. |
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Post by Rocky on Oct 22, 2013 18:10:59 GMT -5
there's no way "Harlem Shake" even cracks the top 10, regardless of its chart performance. All the other songs below it have twice as many weeks as "Harlem Shake",if anything, it'll finish in the Top 20. "Get Lucky" will likely make the year end Top 10 because it peaked at #2 for 5 straight weeks in the summer, and usually that's a good sign you'll finish in the top 10. Also, no way "I Knew You Were Trouble" will crack the Top 10, it'll be in the 11 to 15 range. No. That's wrong in many aspects. First: Songs being #2 in the summer or slaying in the summer have usually lower points in those weeks then for example the weeks after Christmas and the very late Summer- early Fall. Second: "Get Lucky" debuted late, even later than "Blurred Lines". Third: "Get Lucky" will for sure be below "Mirrors", because it's already below it for a couple of weeks despite that managed to reach #2 for a single week, and GL for 5. |
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Post by surreallife on Oct 22, 2013 18:30:51 GMT -5
"Get Lucky"s year-end position could surprise on the downside. Although it did spend five weeks at #2, its' point totals those weeks were not huge, since its' sales peaked at #4 (airplay and streaming were strong). I don't believe it ever hit 200,000 in weekly downloads. My guess it will end up between 15 and 20. "Mirrors" could very well sneak into the top 10. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if "Roar" does very well since its' point totals were very impressive for several weeks running. Like 2012, 2007 and 2005, 2013 will be an interesting year for the HOT100 year-end countdown due to the change in the methodology part way through the year.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Oct 23, 2013 22:03:59 GMT -5
Well one big question mark is how will video streaming be counted, considering the first few months of the year did not include that in the formula?
I would be shocked if Harlem Shake made the top ten. The most similar song I can think of is "Born This Way," which had a huge start and even spent longer at #1, and barely made the top 20 in 2011. I think everyone saying that HS's big lead in its first week or 2 is going to somehow be this overwhelming factor are way overstating it. The year-end chart ALWAYS seems to show that longevity is far more important than having a high peak and short life. Ellie Goulding's "Lights" should be held up as the shining example of that.
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Post by Rocky on Oct 24, 2013 2:04:28 GMT -5
Well one big question mark is how will video streaming be counted, considering the first few months of the year did not include that in the formula? I would be shocked if Harlem Shake made the top ten. The most similar song I can think of is "Born This Way," which had a huge start and even spent longer at #1, and barely made the top 20 in 2011. I think everyone saying that HS's big lead in its first week or 2 is going to somehow be this overwhelming factor are way overstating it. The year-end chart ALWAYS seems to show that longevity is far more important than having a high peak and short life. Ellie Goulding's "Lights" should be held up as the shining example of that. Actually, on the Year-end Hot 100 the songs with the biggest chance are all high peaking monster hits with slow fall a la "Locked Out Of Heaven", "Thrift Stop", etc. Yeah, it's true that the longevity matters, but most of the times a song with crazy longevity, charting for 35+ weeks, but only lower top 20-higher top 30 peak will finish lower than a song that peaks at - say #6 - and falls off the chart in exactly 20 weeks. Another type that usually gets high rankings is the "Radioactive"-"Lights" which gets high peaks and stays in the top ten for at least 15 weeks, but spends more than that rising to top ten. |
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Oct 24, 2013 8:31:16 GMT -5
Well one big question mark is how will video streaming be counted, considering the first few months of the year did not include that in the formula? I would be shocked if Harlem Shake made the top ten. The most similar song I can think of is "Born This Way," which had a huge start and even spent longer at #1, and barely made the top 20 in 2011. I think everyone saying that HS's big lead in its first week or 2 is going to somehow be this overwhelming factor are way overstating it. The year-end chart ALWAYS seems to show that longevity is far more important than having a high peak and short life. Ellie Goulding's "Lights" should be held up as the shining example of that. Actually, on the Year-end Hot 100 the songs with the biggest chance are all high peaking monster hits with slow fall a la "Locked Out Of Heaven", "Thrift Stop", etc. Yeah, it's true that the longevity matters, but most of the times a song with crazy longevity, charting for 35+ weeks, but only lower top 20-higher top 30 peak will finish lower than a song that peaks at - say #6 - and falls off the chart in exactly 20 weeks. Another type that usually gets high rankings is the "Radioactive"-"Lights" which gets high peaks and stays in the top ten for at least 15 weeks, but spends more than that rising to top ten. You're acting like you're disagreeing with me but you're saying the exact same thing I did. I never said LOW-PEAKING songs with longevity win, so I don't know how on earth you interpreted that out of my post, especially since the example I cited was a song that peaked at #2. |
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#Joseph.T
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Post by #Joseph.T on Nov 2, 2013 4:57:58 GMT -5
this is my final prediction for Top 20
1.Thrift Shop
2.Blurred Lines
3.Radioactive
4.Locked Out Of Heaven
5.Can't Hold Us
6.Just Give Me A Reason
7.Mirrors
8.Ho Hey
9.Cruise
10.When I Was Your Man
11.Get Lucky
12.Royals
13.Stay
14.Roar
15.I Knew You Were Trouble
16.We Can't Stop
17.Sail
18.Diamonds
19.Cups
20.Harlem Shake
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kingofpain
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Posts: 1,816
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Post by kingofpain on Nov 8, 2013 9:20:02 GMT -5
Um, I could have sworn Get Lucky came out BEFORE Blurred Lines here? In fact, it was heading up to number one before Blurred Lines cockblocked it when it exploded. Am I wrong on this?
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Post by Rocky on Nov 8, 2013 9:39:28 GMT -5
Um, I could have sworn Get Lucky came out BEFORE Blurred Lines here? In fact, it was heading up to number one before Blurred Lines cockblocked it when it exploded. Am I wrong on this? "Blurred Lines" debuted in the lower part of the chart, started rising slowly, then a few weeks later "Get Lucky" debuted in the 20's if I recall correctly. It was in a better position with high streaming numbers so reached top 10 slowly rising towards the #1 spot. The same time "Blurred Lines" was performed at the Voice and that gave it enough sales to jump to #2. The rocketing airplay and still rising digital sales made it to jump above "Get Lucky" like 3 weeks before going #1 and blocking it. ;) I hope it wasn't that messy. |
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Daniel Collins
4x Platinum Member
With every broken bone, I swear I lived
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Post by Daniel Collins on Nov 16, 2013 11:24:36 GMT -5
I used the usual formula for the top 10 : 12:1 sales , 350:1 streaming , 7500:1 airplay based on the data given in the articles. I use some estimates for the songs below the top 10.
DPP = difference per position
11 = 20,000 pts. → 15 = 16,000 pts. (1,000 DPP)
16 = 15,500 pts. → 20 = 13,500 pts. (500 DPP)
21 = 13,200 pts. → 40 = 7,500 pts. (300 DPP)
41 = 7,400 pts. → 60 = 5,500 pts. (100 DPP)
61 = 5,450 pts. → 80 = 4,500 pts. (50 DPP)
81 = 4,480 pts. → 100 = 4,100 pts. (20 DPP)
With 1 week away from the official year-end this is how my list goes based on the computation shown above.
1.Thrift Shop
2.Blurred Lines
3.Harlem Shake
4.Radioactive
5.Can't Hold Us
6.Just Give Me A Reason
7.Locked Out of Heaven
8.When I Was Your Man
9.Mirrors
10.Ho Hey
11.Cruise
12.Roar
13.Get Lucky
14.I Knew You Were Trouble
15.Stay
16.Royals
17.We Can't Stop
18.Suit & Tie
19.Wrecking Ball
20.Scream & Shout
21.Wake Me Up
22.Holy Grail
23.Diamonds
24.Cups
25.Don't You Worry Child
26.I Love It
27.Started Form The Bottom
28.Treasure
29.Clarity
30.Beauty And A Beat
31.Safe & Sound
32.Come & Get It
33.The Way
34.One More Night
35.Hold On Were Going home
36.Home
37.Sail
38.Applause
39.Feel This Moment
40.Daylight
41.Summertime Sadness
42.Love Me
43.Die Young
44.Fuckin' Problems
45.Girl on Fire
46.Same Love
47.Some Nights
48.Gangnam Style
49.MSKWYDITD
50.Sweet Nothing
51.Try
52.It's Time
53.I Cry
54.Heart Attack
55.Power Trip
56.Love Somebody
57.I Will Wait
58.Wagon Wheel
59.I Need Your Love
60.Bad
61.Boys Round Here
62.Demons
63.Gone,Gone,Gone
64.Little Talks
65.Counting Stars
66.Berzerk
67.Let Me Love You
68.The Other Side
69.Catch My Breath
70.The Fox
71.The A Team
72.Crash My Party
73.Swimming Pools
74.Best Song Ever
75.Pour It Up
76.22
77.I Want Crazy
78.That's My Kind Of Night
79.Adorn
80.Carry On
81.#Beautiful
82.Highway Don't Care
83.It Goes Like This
84.Hall of Fame
85.Body Party
86.Sure Be Cool If You Did
87.Wanted
88.UOENO
89.Don't Stop The Party
90.Troublemaker
91.I'm Different
92.Mamas Broken Heart
93.Still Into You
94.Crooked Smile
95.Runnin' Outta Moonlight
96.Clique
97.Next To Me
98.Round Here
99.Better Dig Two
100.#thatpower
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2013 20:45:21 GMT -5
I used the usual formula for the top 10 : 12:1 sales , 350:1 streaming , 7500:1 airplay based on the data given in the articles. I use some estimates for the songs below the top 10. DPP = difference per position 11 = 20,000 pts. → 15 = 16,000 pts. (1,000 DPP) 16 = 15,500 pts. → 20 = 13,500 pts. (500 DPP) 21 = 13,200 pts. → 40 = 7,500 pts. (300 DPP) 41 = 7,400 pts. → 60 = 5,500 pts. (100 DPP) 61 = 5,450 pts. → 80 = 4,500 pts. (50 DPP) 81 = 4,480 pts. → 100 = 4,100 pts. (20 DPP) With 1 week away from the official year-end this is how my list goes based on the computation shown above. 1.Thrift Shop 2.Blurred Lines 3.Harlem Shake 4.Radioactive 5.Can't Hold Us 6.Just Give Me A Reason 7.Locked Out of Heaven 8.When I Was Your Man 9.Mirrors 10.Ho Hey 11.Cruise 12.Roar 13.Get Lucky 14.I Knew You Were Trouble 15.Stay 16.Royals 17.We Can't Stop 18.Suit & Tie 19.Wrecking Ball 20.Scream & Shout 21.Wake Me Up 22.Holy Grail 23.Diamonds 24.Cups 25.Don't You Worry Child 26.I Love It 27.Started Form The Bottom 28.Treasure 29.Clarity 30.Beauty And A Beat 31.Safe & Sound 32.Come & Get It 33.The Way 34.One More Night 35.Hold On Were Going home 36.Home 37.Sail 38.Applause 39.Feel This Moment 40.Daylight 41.Summertime Sadness 42.Love Me 43.Die Young 44.f**kin' Problems 45.Girl on Fire 46.Same Love 47.Some Nights 48.Gangnam Style 49.MSKWYDITD 50.Sweet Nothing 51.Try 52.It's Time 53.I Cry 54.Heart Attack 55.Power Trip 56.Love Somebody 57.I Will Wait 58.Wagon Wheel 59.I Need Your Love 60.Bad 61.Boys Round Here 62.Demons 63.Gone,Gone,Gone 64.Little Talks 65.Counting Stars 66.Berzerk 67.Let Me Love You 68.The Other Side 69.Catch My Breath 70.The Fox 71.The A Team 72.Crash My Party 73.Swimming Pools 74.Best Song Ever 75.Pour It Up 76.22 77.I Want Crazy 78.That's My Kind Of Night 79.Adorn 80.Carry On 81.#Beautiful 82.Highway Don't Care 83.It Goes Like This 84.Hall of Fame 85.Body Party 86.Sure Be Cool If You Did 87.Wanted 88.UOENO 89.Don't Stop The Party 90.Troublemaker 91.I'm Different 92.Mamas Broken Heart 93.Still Into You 94.Crooked Smile 95.Runnin' Outta Moonlight 96.Clique 97.Next To Me 98.Round Here 99.Better Dig Two 100.#thatpower |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2013 20:50:33 GMT -5
first off, why is "Harlem Shake" #3, when "Radioactive" was in the chart the entire year. Second, in other words you're telling me you calculated according to the data for actual Hot 100? it seems weird that "Clique" and "#thatPower" are on that list, especially since both songs' chart performances were very weak. And finally, do you think "Best Song Ever", "Brave" and/or "Let Her Go" have any chance of sneaking in to the year end Hot 100?
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Kris
2x Platinum Member
Joined: June 2013
Posts: 2,222
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Post by Kris on Nov 16, 2013 21:19:53 GMT -5
If Harlem Shake receives anything lower than rank 30 I will be severely disappointed.
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Daniel Collins
4x Platinum Member
With every broken bone, I swear I lived
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Post by Daniel Collins on Nov 16, 2013 23:51:06 GMT -5
first off, why is "Harlem Shake" #3, when "Radioactive" was in the chart the entire year Harlem Shake peaked with 250,000+ chart points just in the first week, enough for it to be #60 on the year end. Radioactive has the peak of 40,000+ chart points. Their totals as of the moment : Harlem Shake : 1,061,000 & Radioactive: 1,031,000. In fact , when Harlem Shake went to its 3rd week atop it is already the #1 of the year. Thrift Shop & Blurred Lines are the only 2 songs that managed to earn more points in the long run. . Second, in other words you're telling me you calculated according to the data for actual Hot 100? The top 10 are the only ones with the most accurate data because of the information given weekly. it seems weird that "Clique" and "#thatPower" are on that list, especially since both songs' chart performances were very weak. And finally, do you think "Best Song Ever", "Brave" and/or "Let Her Go" have any chance of sneaking in to the year end Hot 100? Best Song Ever is already #74 on this list. Brave is #102 and Let Her Go is #104 and both of them could sneak in next week( if Brave would still manage to be in the top 50). |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2013 8:08:38 GMT -5
I used the usual formula for the top 10 : 12:1 sales , 350:1 streaming , 7500:1 airplay based on the data given in the articles. I use some estimates for the songs below the top 10. DPP = difference per position 11 = 20,000 pts. → 15 = 16,000 pts. (1,000 DPP) 16 = 15,500 pts. → 20 = 13,500 pts. (500 DPP) 21 = 13,200 pts. → 40 = 7,500 pts. (300 DPP) 41 = 7,400 pts. → 60 = 5,500 pts. (100 DPP) 61 = 5,450 pts. → 80 = 4,500 pts. (50 DPP) 81 = 4,480 pts. → 100 = 4,100 pts. (20 DPP) With 1 week away from the official year-end this is how my list goes based on the computation shown above. 1.Thrift Shop 2.Blurred Lines 3.Harlem Shake 4.Radioactive 5.Can't Hold Us 6.Just Give Me A Reason 7.Locked Out of Heaven 8.When I Was Your Man 9.Mirrors 10.Ho Hey 11.Cruise 12.Roar 13.Get Lucky 14.I Knew You Were Trouble 15.Stay 16.Royals 17.We Can't Stop 18.Suit & Tie 19.Wrecking Ball 20.Scream & Shout 21.Wake Me Up 22.Holy Grail 23.Diamonds 24.Cups 25.Don't You Worry Child 26.I Love It 27.Started Form The Bottom 28.Treasure 29.Clarity 30.Beauty And A Beat 31.Safe & Sound 32.Come & Get It 33.The Way 34.One More Night 35.Hold On Were Going home 36.Home 37.Sail 38.Applause 39.Feel This Moment 40.Daylight 41.Summertime Sadness 42.Love Me 43.Die Young 44.f**kin' Problems 45.Girl on Fire 46.Same Love 47.Some Nights 48.Gangnam Style 49.MSKWYDITD 50.Sweet Nothing 51.Try 52.It's Time 53.I Cry 54.Heart Attack 55.Power Trip 56.Love Somebody 57.I Will Wait 58.Wagon Wheel 59.I Need Your Love 60.Bad 61.Boys Round Here 62.Demons 63.Gone,Gone,Gone 64.Little Talks 65.Counting Stars 66.Berzerk 67.Let Me Love You 68.The Other Side 69.Catch My Breath 70.The Fox 71.The A Team 72.Crash My Party 73.Swimming Pools 74.Best Song Ever 75.Pour It Up 76.22 77.I Want Crazy 78.That's My Kind Of Night 79.Adorn 80.Carry On 81.#Beautiful 82.Highway Don't Care 83.It Goes Like This 84.Hall of Fame 85.Body Party 86.Sure Be Cool If You Did 87.Wanted 88.UOENO 89.Don't Stop The Party 90.Troublemaker 91.I'm Different 92.Mamas Broken Heart 93.Still Into You 94.Crooked Smile 95.Runnin' Outta Moonlight 96.Clique 97.Next To Me 98.Round Here 99.Better Dig Two 100.#thatpower |
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