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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2015 8:05:53 GMT -5
Next Week:
Watch Me > Cheerleader Can't Feel My Face > Take Me To Church
And with Earned It ending it's chart run, Watch Me and Cheerleader will almost 100% both end up ahead of it on my final list.
Like I'm Gonna Lose You will be the only new entry.
3 more weeks to go! Adele probably will only need 2 of those weeks to make it in at the rate she's going.
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 27, 2015 9:57:20 GMT -5
Hopefully they can still manage to be ahead of it on the official chart ![:d](http://images.proboards.com/cheesy.gif) Can't wait to see Adele's points next week.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2015 10:03:25 GMT -5
Hopefully they can still manage to be ahead of it on the official chart ![:d](http://images.proboards.com/cheesy.gif) Can't wait to see Adele's points next week. I'm thinking she will have well over 80k next week. I mean, if she sells 1m, that's over 80k right there. So even if she doesn't... add radio and streaming... it's gonna be nuts.
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 27, 2015 10:05:35 GMT -5
Hopefully they can still manage to be ahead of it on the official chart ![:d](http://images.proboards.com/cheesy.gif) Can't wait to see Adele's points next week. I'm thinking she will have well over 80k next week. I mean, if she sells 1m, that's over 80k right there. So even if she doesn't... add radio and streaming... it's gonna be nuts. How much points does #100 have? I wonder what the chances of her starting out in the Top 100 are
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2015 10:09:34 GMT -5
I'm thinking she will have well over 80k next week. I mean, if she sells 1m, that's over 80k right there. So even if she doesn't... add radio and streaming... it's gonna be nuts. How much points does #100 have? I wonder what the chances of her starting out in the Top 100 are She'll need about 130k to make it in the 1st week. That's basically triple the points of The Hills this week.
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lyhom
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Post by lyhom on Oct 27, 2015 11:19:24 GMT -5
tbh I doubt "Hello" makes it to the official list just because it only has 3 weeks of eligibility for the year and to my knowledge the least amount of weeks a song has spent on the chart to make a year end list since 1991 is 6 (I know "Unbreak My Heart" did it in 1996, don't know about anything else)
that being said though it doesn't matter too much since next year it will likely be massive
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2015 11:32:44 GMT -5
Whats looking to be the solution between Back to Back, Where Ya At, HDISY, Love Myself, Strip It Down, and maybe even Here?
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Oct 27, 2015 11:55:09 GMT -5
How much points does #100 have? I wonder what the chances of her starting out in the Top 100 are She'll need about 130k to make it in the 1st week. That's basically triple the points of The Hills this week. It is possible imo.. Assume digital is 900k (75k points) with 50m radio (5k points) and 45m streaming (10+m on-demand and 35m YouTube if 30% of views are from us) Then 130k!!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2015 12:28:46 GMT -5
tbh I doubt "Hello" makes it to the official list just because it only has 3 weeks of eligibility for the year and to my knowledge the least amount of weeks a song has spent on the chart to make a year end list since 1991 is 6 (I know "Unbreak My Heart" did it in 1996, don't know about anything else) that being said though it doesn't matter too much since next year it will likely be massive You can have your doubt. ;) Given that it's based on points... it's entirely possible - and even highly likely. There is no minimum time, and just because it hasn't happened before, doesn't mean it can't or won't, especially given this particular circumstance. If it breaks 100k this week, there's no way it wont make it on the official year end list with 2 more weeks to add onto that total. 'Hello' is potentially giving us overall numbers/points we haven't seen before in terms of weekly chart points... at least in its current formula/methodology... something to keep in mind. I don't think anyone would have thought Baauer's chart run would warrant #4 for the year, but based on points, it happened.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2015 12:37:16 GMT -5
Whats looking to be the solution between Back to Back, Where Ya At, HDISY, Love Myself, Strip It Down, and maybe even Here? Love Myself looks like its out of the running for sure.... not even top 120 if it kept it's current weekly points, which it won't. The others are all still in the running, but they'll all require weekly point increases of varying degrees, obviously. I plugged this week's results into the next 3 weeks, and while none of them made it in the top 100 they are all in the top 120 (some right outside the top 100). So with point increases, over 3 weeks anything can happen. Adele is basically a shoe-in for top 100, so she'll block one of the above contenders.
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lyhom
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Post by lyhom on Oct 27, 2015 12:42:48 GMT -5
tbh I doubt "Hello" makes it to the official list just because it only has 3 weeks of eligibility for the year and to my knowledge the least amount of weeks a song has spent on the chart to make a year end list since 1991 is 6 (I know "Unbreak My Heart" did it in 1996, don't know about anything else) that being said though it doesn't matter too much since next year it will likely be massive You can have your doubt. ;) Given that it's based on points... it's entirely possible - and even highly likely. There is no minimum time, and just because it hasn't happened before, doesn't mean it can't or won't, especially given this particular circumstance. If it breaks 100k this week, there's no way it wont make it on the official year end list with 2 more weeks to add onto that total. 'Hello' is potentially giving us overall numbers/points we haven't seen before in terms of weekly chart points... at least in its current methodology... something to keep in mind. fair, although I'd believe you more if I felt your predictions were more accurate tbh (that being said it's more of an either way situation where I wouldn't be surprised at either result)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2015 12:46:40 GMT -5
You can have your doubt. ;) Given that it's based on points... it's entirely possible - and even highly likely. There is no minimum time, and just because it hasn't happened before, doesn't mean it can't or won't, especially given this particular circumstance. If it breaks 100k this week, there's no way it wont make it on the official year end list with 2 more weeks to add onto that total. 'Hello' is potentially giving us overall numbers/points we haven't seen before in terms of weekly chart points... at least in its current methodology... something to keep in mind. fair, although I'd believe you more if I felt your predictions were more accurate tbh (that being said it's more of an either way situation where I wouldn't be surprised at either result) While i'm certain my predictions will have a ton of conflicts with the official list, i think most songs should end up in the general rank range. Curious... what do you believe are some examples of inaccuracies in my predictions, and why?
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lyhom
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Post by lyhom on Oct 27, 2015 12:51:04 GMT -5
honestly it's more nitpicking if anything else (and to be fair when daniel's predictions last year had nearly the whole top half be right it's hard to follow, especially with the limited knowledge we have) but there's things like "El Perdon" possibly making it and how high "Watch Me" is for me then again though I'm not the one making the list so ![](http://yoursmiles.org/ssmile/fun/s0244.gif)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2015 12:53:10 GMT -5
Yeah, I mean, if I were just observing the charts each week and not assigning points on a spreadsheet, I'd probably feel the way you do about both of those examples. It's pretty crazy... but it's the way the point estimations/totals add up... so I gotta go with it!
There's considerable guesstimating on my behalf, which, over time can really add up and cause inaccuracies, so I'm not claiming to be accurate - but hoping to be in the ballpark!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2015 13:33:42 GMT -5
How far ahead of Blank Space is Sugar now, according to your predictions (broccoli)?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2015 13:51:19 GMT -5
How far ahead of Blank Space is Sugar now, according to your predictions (broccoli)? 854860 SUGAR - MAROON 5 (2) 829750 BLANK SPACE - TAYLOR SWIFT (1)
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yuh yuh
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Post by yuh yuh on Oct 28, 2015 14:08:27 GMT -5
Now it seems to be sure that Sugar is ahead. I personally don't care as I love(d) both songs ![](http://yoursmiles.org/ssmile/fun/s0244.gif)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2015 14:23:28 GMT -5
Now it seems to be sure that Sugar is ahead. I personally don't care as I love(d) both songs ![](http://images.proboards.com/tongue.gif) I sure hope so, or my predictions are gonna be a bust. haha. ![(rofl)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/rofl.png)
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Post by leredlum on Oct 28, 2015 14:43:10 GMT -5
With only three weeks to chart, what's the ceiling for Hello on the year-end list?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2015 15:18:53 GMT -5
With only three weeks to chart, what's the ceiling for Hello on the year-end list? I can't even guesstimate how much it's going to debut with yet, it just keeps getting bigger! General ranges: 200k+ = top 75 175k+ = top 80 160k+ = top 90 130k+ = top 100 I think 200k is within reach for a 3 week total. A 100k+ week, plus 2 more at 60/40? 50/50? i feel like this could even be a conservative figure. Am I crazy?
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mamooshka
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Post by mamooshka on Oct 28, 2015 20:29:47 GMT -5
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Post by bobbybob on Oct 28, 2015 21:02:33 GMT -5
At least the rest of the 2015 chart year, quite probably longer. For context, it's gonna be selling more than twice as much as a song like "See You Again" or "Bad Blood" sold the week those songs went to #1. It should easily be able to maintain enough momentum in sales and streams for a few weeks. Plus, it will probably top airplay at a quick rate. This, along with how much of a massive success her last album and its singles were.
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Oct 29, 2015 11:53:29 GMT -5
YEAR-END PREDICTIONS:
1. Uptown Funk 1660k 2. Thinking Out Loud 1125k 3. See You Again 1080k 4. Trap Queen 965k 5. Sugar 900k
6/7 Shut Up + Dance 830k 6/7 Blank Space 825k 8. Watch Me 780k 9/10 Cheerleader 750k 9/10 Earned It 750k
11. The Hills 735k 12. Can't Feel My Face 720k 13. Love Me Like You Do 670k 14. Take Me To Church 663k
15/16 Bad Blood 585k 15/16 Lean On 580k 17 Want To Want Me 570k 18 Shake It Off 550k 19 Where Are U Now 515k
20 Lips Are Movin 480k 21.Fight Song 475k 22.I'm Not the Only One 470k
23-28 Worth It 450k 23-28 All About That Bass 450k 23-28 Good For You 445k 23-28 Post To Be 445k 23-28 Hotline Bling 445k 23-28 679 445k
29. Honey, I'm Good 435k 30. Style 425k 31. What Do You Mean 415k
32-34 G.D.FR. 400k 32-34 Hey Mama 395k 32-34 Photograph 390k 35/36 Stitches 370k 35/36 Jealous 370k
37-39 Hello 350k 37-39 Time of Our Lives 350k 37-39 Talking Body 350k 40 Locked Away 340k
* #1 is a no brainer. * Thinking Out Loud seems to have #2 locked beating See You Again. * Trap Queen and Sugar are locked for #4 and #5 respectively. * For #6, the fight will be between Blank Space and Shut Up and Dance. * Watch Me, thanks to its consistently high streaming, should get #2 spot. * Cheerleader hasn't held well at all and will finish below Watch Me, and will battle with Earned It for #9.
* The Weeknd will also have #11 and #12 spot, so that makes it 3 in Top-12. What is surprising is that the Hills will actually finish higher than Can't Feel My Face. * Bad Blood and Shake It Off are guaranteed spots in Top-20, thus Taylor Swift will also have 3 songs in the Top-20. * #20 is still undecided and it will be interesting to see which songs grabs this spot.
* Hotline Bling will enter Top-30 whereas What Do You Mean should just miss it. * HELLO looks to enter Top-40 just based on 3 weeks of run. WOW!!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2015 21:05:02 GMT -5
Natalie La Rose Somebody not in top 40??? Anyways, I will have my predictions up right before year ends. Sooo..
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 30, 2015 5:18:54 GMT -5
After the official chart?
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Oct 30, 2015 9:35:40 GMT -5
Natalie La Rose Somebody not in top 40??? Anyways, I will have my predictions up right before year ends. Sooo.. I have it finishing just below Locked Away for #41 position. Though it may end up beating Locked Away, or Hello may have significant drops in points next couple of weeks, in which case it will make it.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2015 9:48:37 GMT -5
After the official chart? Before it comes out
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2015 8:47:07 GMT -5
With only three weeks to chart, what's the ceiling for Hello on the year-end list? I can't even guesstimate how much it's going to debut with yet, it just keeps getting bigger! General ranges: 200k+ = top 75 175k+ = top 80 160k+ = top 90 130k+ = top 100 I think 200k is within reach for a 3 week total. A 100k+ week, plus 2 more at 60/40? 50/50? i feel like this could even be a conservative figure. Am I crazy? 60/40? Does this mean it's still possible for Hotline Bling to reach #1 if it maintains a certain status quo in YouTube clicks over the next few weeks?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2015 8:50:07 GMT -5
YEAR-END PREDICTIONS: 1. Uptown Funk 1660k 2. Thinking Out Loud 1125k 3. See You Again 1080k 4. Trap Queen 965k 5. Sugar 900k 6/7 Shut Up + Dance 830k 6/7 Blank Space 825k 8. Watch Me 780k 9/10 Cheerleader 750k 9/10 Earned It 750k 11. The Hills 735k 12. Can't Feel My Face 720k 13. Love Me Like You Do 670k 14. Take Me To Church 663k 15/16 Bad Blood 585k 15/16 Lean On 580k 17 Want To Want Me 570k 18 Shake It Off 550k 19 Where Are U Now 515k 20 Lips Are Movin 480k 21.Fight Song 475k 22.I'm Not the Only One 470k 23-28 Worth It 450k 23-28 All About That Bass 450k 23-28 Good For You 445k 23-28 Post To Be 445k 23-28 Hotline Bling 445k 23-28 679 445k 29. Honey, I'm Good 435k 30. Style 425k 31. What Do You Mean 415k 32-34 G.D.FR. 400k 32-34 Hey Mama 395k 32-34 Photograph 390k 35/36 Stitches 370k 35/36 Jealous 370k 37-39 Hello 350k 37-39 Time of Our Lives 350k 37-39 Talking Body 350k 40 Locked Away 340k * #1 is a no brainer. * Thinking Out Loud seems to have #2 locked beating See You Again. * Trap Queen and Sugar are locked for #4 and #5 respectively. * For #6, the fight will be between Blank Space and Shut Up and Dance. * Watch Me, thanks to its consistently high streaming, should get #2 spot. * Cheerleader hasn't held well at all and will finish below Watch Me, and will battle with Earned It for #9. * The Weeknd will also have #11 and #12 spot, so that makes it 3 in Top-12. What is surprising is that the Hills will actually finish higher than Can't Feel My Face. * Bad Blood and Shake It Off are guaranteed spots in Top-20, thus Taylor Swift will also have 3 songs in the Top-20.* #20 is still undecided and it will be interesting to see which songs grabs this spot. * Hotline Bling will enter Top-30 whereas What Do You Mean should just miss it. * HELLO looks to enter Top-40 just based on 3 weeks of run. WOW!! and Shake It Off would be in the top 20 of two year-end charts too :O
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Oct 31, 2015 9:16:12 GMT -5
YEAR-END PREDICTIONS: 1. Uptown Funk 1660k 2. Thinking Out Loud 1125k 3. See You Again 1080k 4. Trap Queen 965k 5. Sugar 900k 6/7 Shut Up + Dance 830k 6/7 Blank Space 825k 8. Watch Me 780k 9/10 Cheerleader 750k 9/10 Earned It 750k 11. The Hills 735k 12. Can't Feel My Face 720k 13. Love Me Like You Do 670k 14. Take Me To Church 663k 15/16 Bad Blood 585k 15/16 Lean On 580k 17 Want To Want Me 570k 18 Shake It Off 550k 19 Where Are U Now 515k 20 Lips Are Movin 480k 21.Fight Song 475k 22.I'm Not the Only One 470k 23-28 Worth It 450k 23-28 All About That Bass 450k 23-28 Good For You 445k 23-28 Post To Be 445k 23-28 Hotline Bling 445k 23-28 679 445k 29. Honey, I'm Good 435k 30. Style 425k 31. What Do You Mean 415k 32-34 G.D.FR. 400k 32-34 Hey Mama 395k 32-34 Photograph 390k 35/36 Stitches 370k 35/36 Jealous 370k 37-39 Hello 350k 37-39 Time of Our Lives 350k 37-39 Talking Body 350k 40 Locked Away 340k * #1 is a no brainer. * Thinking Out Loud seems to have #2 locked beating See You Again. * Trap Queen and Sugar are locked for #4 and #5 respectively. * For #6, the fight will be between Blank Space and Shut Up and Dance. * Watch Me, thanks to its consistently high streaming, should get #2 spot. * Cheerleader hasn't held well at all and will finish below Watch Me, and will battle with Earned It for #9. * The Weeknd will also have #11 and #12 spot, so that makes it 3 in Top-12. What is surprising is that the Hills will actually finish higher than Can't Feel My Face. * Bad Blood and Shake It Off are guaranteed spots in Top-20, thus Taylor Swift will also have 3 songs in the Top-20.* #20 is still undecided and it will be interesting to see which songs grabs this spot. * Hotline Bling will enter Top-30 whereas What Do You Mean should just miss it. * HELLO looks to enter Top-40 just based on 3 weeks of run. WOW!! and Shake It Off would be in the top 20 of two year-end charts too :O I recall 'Royals' and 'Just The Way You Are' were also in Top-20 for 2 years. Any other recent songs??
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