jarhys
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Post by jarhys on Oct 31, 2015 10:11:35 GMT -5
and Shake It Off would be in the top 20 of two year-end charts too :O I recall 'Royals' and 'Just The Way You Are' were also in Top-20 for 2 years. Any other recent songs?? Honorable mention: 'Wake Me Up!' (2013-#19 & 2014-#22)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2015 9:51:21 GMT -5
I can't even guesstimate how much it's going to debut with yet, it just keeps getting bigger! General ranges: 200k+ = top 75 175k+ = top 80 160k+ = top 90 130k+ = top 100 I think 200k is within reach for a 3 week total. A 100k+ week, plus 2 more at 60/40? 50/50? i feel like this could even be a conservative figure. Am I crazy? 60/40? Does this mean it's still possible for Hotline Bling to reach #1 if it maintains a certain status quo in YouTube clicks over the next few weeks? No, i was just giving a couple random examples of low-ball point values for the final 2 weeks, which added to this week's low-ball 100k+ would mean at least 200k+ total points for the year, easily putting it in the top 75. Now that I'm seeing it hold so strongly on iTunes and streaming and radio is huge... it looks like 200k should be very easy to surpass.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2015 18:30:45 GMT -5
I read that Adele's first week US streaming estimate is 52m (no confirmed source). If this ends up being true, and if we add points for 1m+ in sales, that alone puts 'Hello' immediately (and easily) in my YE top 100. Not even counting radio.
Holy crap.
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Nov 1, 2015 18:47:26 GMT -5
700K sales estimated for this week, 186 million views on YouTube, so should easily be 200M by the end of the week. This might even finish in the top 50/60.. It's a shame these points are being wasted on it getting an 'okay' peak in this year's chart when they could be used for next year's.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2015 18:57:19 GMT -5
700K sales estimated for this week, 186 million views on YouTube, so should easily be 200M by the end of the week. This might even finish in the top 50/60.. It's a shame these points are being wasted on it getting an 'okay' peak in this year's chart when they could be used for next year's. All the conflicting/changing/confused/rumored estimations... i can't wait for final numbers to be published tomorrow!! As for Hello wasting 3 week's worth of points on this chart year.... at least that gives a future song a fighting chance at #1 for 2016. This first week alone would put her in a HUGE lead over anyone else for awhile if it were the first week of 2016. Just some positive thinking. :) I want some competition throughout the year, not another UF.
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Post by Mikel Echarri on Nov 1, 2015 18:57:34 GMT -5
700K sales estimated for this week, 186 million views on YouTube, so should easily be 200M by the end of the week. This might even finish in the top 50/60.. It's a shame these points are being wasted on it getting an 'okay' peak in this year's chart when they could be used for next year's. Worse is the case of Blank Space... its best week in points was the last counting for the 2014 YE and didn't enter... that points were wasted
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2015 21:58:26 GMT -5
Notice that the last 6 years, the Number 1 song has been my a New Artist? or an artist with their 1st song?
The last time a song was Number 1 that had been from an artist that had other songs before was Boom Boom Pow by Black Eyed Peas in 2009.
As for Pharrell with Happy, yes he featured on other songs before, but that was his first song.
So expect the Number 1 of 2016 to be from a new artist.
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lyhom
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Post by lyhom on Nov 1, 2015 22:09:31 GMT -5
As for Pharrell with Happy, yes he featured on other songs before, but that was his first song. idk, having a whole bloody album out nearly a decade before "happy" was released would disqualify that honestly
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Nov 1, 2015 22:13:21 GMT -5
The last time a song was Number 1 before that had other songs before was Boom Boom Pow by Black Eyed Peas in 2009. What are you talking about before that had you talked about before were you talking about before was that you were in 2009? (That's your post!)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2015 22:50:26 GMT -5
I worded it badly, I will fix it, lol
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Nov 1, 2015 22:55:42 GMT -5
I worded it badly, I will fix it, lol High five!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2015 13:57:44 GMT -5
So... it's official... "Hello" is #1 this week with about 1,112,000 copies and over 160k total chart points... debuting on my YE predictions this week at #82.
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yuh yuh
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Post by yuh yuh on Nov 2, 2015 14:26:42 GMT -5
So... it's official... "Hello" is #1 this week with about 1,112,000 copies and over 160k total chart points... debuting on my YE predictions this week at #82. Adele is slaying! ![:bowdown:](http://i.imgur.com/Djn18.gif)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2015 15:27:46 GMT -5
Some news on my predictions. Sangria is slightly ahead of Homegrown, so I think it has a chance to make the list. I got Be Real slightly higher than IWYTK then its Outside and Throw Sum Mo. I still think Throw Sum Mo is a bit too high in your predictions. I believe the 1st 10 weeks of its chart run it did not even reach top 70.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2015 16:35:31 GMT -5
Neither of those songs will make the official list anymore. With Adele's record-breaking #1 hit and all those points it gathered, plus the 2 weeks it still has will easily put it on the year-end list, and with "Here" currently in the top 10 on iTunes and jumping to #15 with 2 weeks to go, is very likely it'll be the last song to sneak in to the list barring a collapse or lack of movement the last 2 weeks which I do not see happening at all, I no longer think "I Want You To Know" and "Where Ya At" will be there like I put on the video which I will be remaking tomorrow. And those songs are all going to be overtaken by the ones I just mentioned, so don't expect to see any of them on the official list at all.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2015 18:33:53 GMT -5
I been thinking about Here sneaking in too but I feel like it will just miss the cut, so we will see. Lets see how Where Ya At and HDISY do the next few weeks. I will post my official predictions right before the actual one comes out. What you think of Crash and Burn though? Im not finished with that one yet but the way its looking at, it may be higher than Sangria on my list. We will see. Also, I am having doubts of El Perdon making it, but we will see.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2015 8:59:05 GMT -5
Doesn't look like Can't Feel My Face will be able to make the top 10 on my predictions, unless Cheerleader really nosedives for the next 2 weeks. My prior prediction of The Weeknd having #10, 11 and 12 on my final list is looking like it'll probably be spot on.
Shut Up And Dance is running out of gas (and time) in its attempt to surpass Blank Space, and while it might be close enough to go either way on the official list, BS has the edge on my predictions.
Hello... not sure what Adele's numbers will be, but it sure is looking like she's going to make huge jumps upward with ease over the next 2 weeks. Anything is possible for her at the moment. Top 50 is highly probable for next week.... and top 40 is entirely possible in the final week. Absolutely incredible. It'll be awhile before we see something like this happen again.
3 months ago, I never would have thought Want To Want Me would still be in the top 20. Super impressive showing for this single.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2015 13:50:07 GMT -5
I duplicated this week's points for the bubbling under songs for the remaining 2 weeks, and this is how things ended up:
95 WAVES - MR. PROBZ (14) 96 PRAYER IN C - LILLYWOOD & ROBIN SCHULZ (23) 97 EL PERDON - NICKY JAM & ENRIQUE IGLESIAS (56) 98 NIGHT CHANGES - ONE DIRECTION (31) 99 I WANT YOU TO KNOW - ZEDD F/ SELENA GOMEZ (17) 100 HERE - ALESSIA CARA (15)
101 THROW SUM MO - RAE SREMMURD F/ NICKI MINAJ & YOUNG THUG (30) 102 HOW DEEP IS YOUR LOVE - CALVIN HARRIS & DISCIPLES (27) 103 WHERE YA AT - FUTURE F/ DRAKE (28) 104 SANGRIA - BLAKE SHELTON (38) 105 HOMEGROWN - ZAC BROWN BAND (35)
So, with some gains in weekly points these 3 could all end up making the cut. Also, there's about 20k point gap between #95 and #105 above.
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yuh yuh
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Post by yuh yuh on Nov 3, 2015 14:09:07 GMT -5
Can't wait for your final list. I look forward to your predictions every week! It'll be interesting to compare them with official list, after it'll be released! :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2015 14:22:36 GMT -5
Thank you! It'll be interesting for sure! I'm expecting lots of differences... just hoping there are no MAJOR differences... especially near the top of the chart.
I'd love to see Daniel's list, if he even has one anymore? Daniel?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2015 15:56:15 GMT -5
On my predictions I actually have Shut Up and Dance barely higher than Sugar for 5th, so we will see.
I wonder what you will think of my list brocolli when it comes out.
BTW I told you 2 months ago, or maybe a month ago, that Here could reach top 100, none of you believed me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2015 17:21:24 GMT -5
On my predictions I actually have Shut Up and Dance barely higher than Sugar for 5th, so we will see. I wonder what you will think of my list brocolli when it comes out. BTW I told you 2 months ago, or maybe a month ago, that Here could reach top 100, none of you believed me. Hey now... slow your roll... I had my doubts about Here awhile back, but I never ruled it out. Keep in mind, I have a spreadsheet with every song and their point estimates in front of me, ranked, every week... so you saying a certain song might make it is not news to me. :) And, to be fair, you told me flat out that there's "no way HDIYL makes it" and now look where it stands. Bottom line, it's too hard to predict far in advance - it's basically lucky guessing - as anything can happen. I may have numbers in front of me at all times, but I will never claim to predict the future. No offense to you intended here, but you seem to have this "i was right, you were wrong" way of communicating in here, or like you want credit for things you say that end up being true... and I don't really get it. It's clear you have your own method for predicting... I just don't know what your method is, so when you say you have something different than I, I'm like ok, that's cool... but your reasons aren't in line with how points are actually compiled. It would be cool to see a more complete list from you, at least semi-regularly, because otherwise it seems like you're lacking a consistent or reliable framework, and just nitpicking my list based on your unknown methods, you know? Anyway, interesting SUAD prediction. I have Sugar with 50,000+ more points than SUAD, so I'm curious what formula gave SUAD the edge for you? Maybe I'm way off somehow. Care to share how you came to this conclusion?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2015 17:29:42 GMT -5
Shut Up and Dance has been on the entire year, that is why. And for the last 20 or so weeks it has been ahead of Sugar in rank.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Nov 3, 2015 17:33:32 GMT -5
Pretty sure Adele is going to make a pretty big impact even though there is 2 weeks left. Maybe top 30?
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Nov 3, 2015 17:42:15 GMT -5
Shut Up and Dance has been on the entire year, that is why. And for the last 20 or so weeks it has been ahead of Sugar in rank. Again, the amount of weeks makes NO difference. Song X may spend 20 weeks on the chart, each week in the 20-30 range with 4000 points (a total of 80000 points). Song Y may spend 40 weeks on the chart, but each week with 200 in the 10-20 range (a total of 8000 points). Does that mean Song Y should rank higher?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2015 17:43:02 GMT -5
I know that, but still, in my predictions it seems like SUAD will be slightly higher than Sugar.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2015 17:49:42 GMT -5
^ So are you assigning point values to the songs each week? If so, are you saying the sum of SUAD's points is higher than Sugar? If you're not assigning points, are you basing it solely on number of weeks in certain parts of the chart and longevity? Obviously Dylan already explained why that's a flawed way of doing it, but I'm just curious. If you know this stuff, but still think differently, I'm perplexed! I wonder if you'd trust your own predictions if you were us, based on your "i know but..." reasoning. :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2015 17:52:32 GMT -5
Pretty sure Adele is going to make a pretty big impact even though there is 2 weeks left. Maybe top 30? Definitely possible given how INCREDIBLY well Hello is doing so far. Mathematically, top 30 is possible if she pulls a couple more huge weeks... according to what i'm looking at, she'll need to average about 115k/week, which is no small order. top 40 is probably a safer bet.... but I'm prepared to be blown away again!
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Nov 3, 2015 18:34:38 GMT -5
Also, thank you Broccoli for your predictions, I also look forward to the weekly post as well! With how slow the chart is atm (although it is picking up again), this chart is much more interesting to watch. I'm also using your predictions to get my song list for my year end mashup (I'll post it in here when I upload it like last year when I used Daniel's predictions) ![:d](http://images.proboards.com/cheesy.gif)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2015 18:56:40 GMT -5
I know that, but still, in my predictions it seems like SUAD will be slightly higher than Sugar. You may end up being correct, I'm not claiming that these numbers are anything but estimates and may be off by 50k, who knows! But I want to illustrate this example from my end, so you and everyone else can see how/why I have a 50k point gap in Sugar's favor. These are rounded approximations and not my actual/full point values. SUAD's first 8 weeks = 37k Sugar's first (1) week = 24k The next 12 weeks: SUAD 37k + 135k = 172k Sugar 24K + 405k = 429k The next 12 weeks: SUAD 172k + 360k = 532k Sugar 429k + 273k = 702k The last 17 weeks: SUAD 532k + 280k = 812k Sugar 702k + 160k = 862k SUAD had a 7 week head start/lead in terms of longevity, but Sugar was able to more than make up for those points in it's first 2 weeks! Sugar had a weekly lead over SUAD for the next 14 weeks, sometimes 4x, 3x and 2x the weekly points of SUAD. SUAD has been trying to catch up - but not fast enough and time has obviously all but run out making it impossible. SUAD's run is SUPER impressive, and I'd be happy if it beat Sugar, tbh! But unless I'm 50k off, I gotta stick with Sugar.
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