Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[kcdawg13]

Oct 18, 2016 6:35:02 GMT -5 scrohr424 said:

Oct 17, 2016 21:40:04 GMT -5 georgetherunner314 said:

Here are those two. Both are only just getting started.

243 266 Ooouuu 45,430
247 264 Do You Mind 43,490

I probably won't include them in updates as I currently just want to include songs with potential to reach the final year-end chart at the moment + the 10 Bubbling Under.

Alright, sounds fair. But thank goodness (at least for Ooouuu).

And on that note, Juju On Dat Beat just bursted up 78 spots to #11. NO. UNACCEPTABLE. STAY AWAY FROM THE YEAR-END LIST YOU PIECE OF CRAP.

Dammit! I am so sick of these crappy Hip-Hop tracks hitting the Top 10! Trap Queen, Watch Me, Panda, Broccoli, etc... They are all so terrible (IMO). I hope Juju drops hard next week or at least bubbles under the Top 10, but with our luck it will probably hit the Top 5. Smh.

Bruno, Abel, Drew, Alex, and Halsey. It's your jobs to block this horrendous song from the top spot. 

[Deleted]

^ Panda and Trap Queen are lit though.

[bigbertha]

I don't think Juju will go #1, but I could see it having crazy longevity like Watch Me did.

[scrohr424]

Oct 18, 2016 13:09:17 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

^ Panda and Trap Queen are lit though.

As stupid as Panda is, there's something about it that makes it hysterical to me.

Trap Queen I've always seen the appeal of, although as far as Fetty goes I liked 679 more.

[georgetherunner314]

WEEK 48 (October 29, 2016)
4 weeks to go!

As we near the closing of this year, I will now only be including the top 100, the 10 Bubbling Under, and any other contenders for the year-end chart (which there only seem to be two). On another note, I plan to release a top 100 video of my predictions on my YouTube channel when all is said and done so stay tuned for that! (Hopefully Jillboard doesn't beat me to it lol)

Notes/Analysis:

• One Dance needs to maintain its 14.6k points from this week to stand a chance at #2, so top 2 ain't happening for it, at least on my predictions.
• Panda will easily overtake Stressed Out to reach the top 5 and it remains unknown whether or not Don't Let Me Down will pass Hello.
• CSTF! should pass 7 Years as should Cheap Thrills barring a fast radio drop.
• Closer is still scoring over 50k points a week so it has still got a chance at top 10!
• Ride and Heathens will battle for a top 20 finish although Ride looks to remain above the latter single.
• Low Life finally drops out and is surely going to be the highest song to have not made the top 10. But, will it be The Weeknd's highest song of the year?!

Now for the cutoff discussion:

• Of the bubbling under, Starboy and Side To Side will easily make it as Tiimmy Turner should as well following the Kanye West remix release.
• No Limit is too close to not reach the cutoff despite its falling on radio. It can still chart 4 weeks in the bottom 50, which should guarantee it a spot
• IGTK and FSMH will drop out very soon, at least in my eyes. Peter Pan has a discount going for it although it's not doing much so I don't think it will earn a spot either.
• THat Part and Different For Girls are also on their last legs and You Don't Own Me will probably be gone next week.
• That leaves only Starving with an opportunity to make the list (it's currently at 14.5k points/wk) and maybe 24K Magic although I'd bet no on it, unfortunately. So, not much has changed since last week.

Legend:
Blue = Actively charting in the hot 100's top 10.
Bold = Actively charting on the hot 100.
* = Reached its highest peak in a separate time period.

[kcdawg13]

"Runaway With Me" is coming. It's gonna debut soon and go #1 for 17 weeks and become the #1 song of 2017. *Sigh* a man can dream.

[Leo ✔]

I really hope the discount can help Peter Pan to make YE Chart. The song deserves, she deserves
#Justice4Kelsea
#BuyPeterPanOniTunes

[Abbaschand]

Oct 18, 2016 22:32:36 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

"Runaway With Me" is coming. It's gonna debut soon and go #1 for 17 weeks and become the #1 song of 2017. *Sigh* a man can dream.

I have a dream that PPAP will be #1 song of 2017 with 100 weeks at #1. LOL.

[inverse]

Wow at You Should Be Here. It's been at 100 for three weeks now! In any case, it's finally going to be passed by No Limit and Starboy. Question for george, how do you know that Father Stretch My Hands is headed out soon?

Closer unfortunately seems to be falling, I hope it gets two more weeks at number 1. Also I hope all of this Lady Gaga nonsense doesn't decrease the sales.

This fight for the 9 and 10 spots is soooo intense. Can't Stop The Feeling picked up around 14000, if it gets that for the last 4 weeks it ends up with 756000. No way it doesn't beat 7 Years, but it isn't gonna be by much. Cheap Thrills picked up around 21,000 and if it gets that for the last 4 weeks it will finish at 760000. So it's also gonna beat 7 Years, but as for Cheap Thrills vs. Can't Stop The Feeling this is going be incredibly close. And Closer got around 55000. If it keeps scoring this much it will end up over 780000 but I don't think it will be scoring that much by year's end. It needs 45000 a week on average to top 7 Years, which should be doable. 50000 a week to contest those other 2 songs. This is so exciting, I love these year-end nail biters.

It's also going to be interesting to see if Work From Home gets the 2 weeks needed to beat Ibiza and My House.

[inverse]

Also there's a mistake at No Limit in which the peak is reported as 16.

[georgetherunner314]

Oct 18, 2016 22:39:11 GMT -5 inverse said:

Wow at You Should Be Here. It's been at 100 for three weeks now! In any case, it's finally going to be passed by No Limit and Starboy. Question for george, how do you know that Father Stretch My Hands is headed out soon?

Closer unfortunately seems to be falling, I hope it gets two more weeks at number 1. Also I hope all of this Lady Gaga nonsense doesn't decrease the sales.

This fight for the 9 and 10 spots is soooo intense. Can't Stop The Feeling picked up around 14000, if it gets that for the last 4 weeks it ends up with 756000. No way it doesn't beat 7 Years, but it isn't gonna be by much. Cheap Thrills picked up around 21,000 and if it gets that for the last 4 weeks it will finish at 760000. So it's also gonna beat 7 Years, but as for Cheap Thrills vs. Can't Stop The Feeling this is going be incredibly close. And Closer got around 55000. If it keeps scoring this much it will end up over 780000 but I don't think it will be scoring that much by year's end. It needs 45000 a week on average to top 7 Years, which should be doable. 50000 a week to contest those other 2 songs. This is so exciting, I love these year-end nail biters.

It's also going to be interesting to see if Work From Home gets the 2 weeks needed to beat Ibiza and My House.

Yeah, I shouldn't have said FSMH was falling out soon as I'm only guessing based on how it has plateaued and only just holding on to its bullet. But, it's not falling on radio yet so it could keep going.

Oct 18, 2016 22:39:50 GMT -5 inverse said:

Also there's a mistake at No Limit in which the peak is reported as 16.

Damn, I need to come up with a better way to update peaks. 2nd week in a row this has happened...

[Leo ✔]

Don't worry for that George, you do an awesome job

[chicken077]

Oct 18, 2016 22:35:05 GMT -5 Leo ✔ said:

I really hope the discount can help Peter Pan to make YE Chart. The song deserves, she deserves
#Justice4Kelsea
#BuyPeterPanOniTunes

GO PETER PAN GO PETER PAN GO KELSEA!!!
Seriously tho, it's like one of my faves of 2016 and it so deserves a position in that list as a country song AND as a pop song. I will be like the happiest guy if it makes the YE even at #100 lol. And of course there's also the descreptancy in points that will hopefully work in Peter Pan's favor.

[Sambalada]

YOU guys who live in America should all buy Peter Pan, push it to the YE chart!!

[Mike is BAD]

Oct 19, 2016 4:27:16 GMT -5 Sambalada said:

YOU guys who live in America should all buy Peter Pan, push it to the YE chart!!

I don't have a credit card.

[bluepotato]

"Too good" only needs 8.1k points average in the next 4 weeks to pass "low life",so "low life" will probably lose its title as the highest ranking non top ten hit in the last week of the chart year.

[scrohr424]

Comments time!
- If both CSTF and Cheap Thrills duplicate their points from this week for the next four weeks (which they probably won't, especially with Cheap Thrills about to leave the Top 10 and CSTF having gains to get from the movie release), CSTF should barely edge out Cheap Thrills.
- It'd be pretty funny if Closer made #15, because with 15 weeks, that'd be akin to Shake It Off in 2014 making #13 with 13 weeks. Same deal with if Heathens makes #21 with 21 weeks.
- I almost forgot that I Got The Keys was still here. I thought it would have dropped off this week. It's at #98 on the Hot 100 currently; it'll probably drop off next week.
- Of the songs not quite there yet, the ones that are definitely set are No Limit (wow, this one gained 9k? That's more than I thought), Starving (gained 14k, unfortunately for me), Starboy and Side To Side. If the inertia keeps up, maybe 24K Magic will make it after all, and Perfect, despite being insanely unlucky, should barely survive. And can Father Stretch My Hands just leave for good already?!?! ._.

[Leo ✔]

SPOILER: Click to show

{...}BUY PETER PAN ON ITUNES.

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2016 15:35:09 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

my 10 favorites:

1. I Took A Pill In Ibiza
2. Stressed Out
3. Cake by the Ocean
4. Hello (if you count it for 2016)
5. Ride
6. Starboy
7. Closer
8. Panda (don't judge)
9. Heathens
10. Cold Water

HM: CAN'T STOP THE FEELING and Me, Myself & I

my 10 least favorite:

10. Broccoli (catchy beat and everything but the lyrics are AWFUL in every way - even worse than those of CBTO which was a huge guilty pleasure of mine)
9. Sorry by Beyonce (I don't really hate it but it's kinda annoying...but at least it's a masterpiece compared to 7/11 )
8. Cheap Thrills (maybe if this song wasn't everywhere I wouldn't mind it...)
7. All the Way Up (haven't heard it in full, and didn't realy even know it existed until scanning the list but it's by Fat Joe and I hate just about everything with him in it so it earns a spot here; I'm glad it wasn't that big a hit ad I never really had to listen to it)
6. Back To Sleep (his worst song easily)
5. Dangerous Woman (I used to love it but it got soooooooooooooooo annoying after being played on my radio stations every 5 minutes holy f**k)
4. Here (again, if you count this for 2016)
3. Me Too
2. Work (to think I once liked it...)
1. One Call Away

DHM: Treat You Better (not nearly as catchy as Stitches and the lyrics just bother me) and Needed Me (okay I don't really dislike it per se but the chorus creeps me the hell out)

oh and Wild Things was overplayed to a fault here (never really liked it to begin with) so I'm really glad it didn't make it big in the US. It's worse than Here IMO

after listening to a bit of Juju On That Beat, it earns a spot at #9 here on my least favorites list. So congrats to Broccoli on barely (and I mean barely) missing the cut. I still think the lyrics of that song are awful lol.

Also this was only for radio songs which is why YouTube crap like "Sweatshirt" wasn't eligible for it. Sweatshirt would've probably been #2 or even #1 otherwise (yes maybe just #2 because I really hate OCA THAT much...sorry to those of you who love the song). And ofc I excluded 2015-peaking songs like Watch Me.

Also sorry I didn't mean to bring this back. I just felt like the list needed a correction because I hadn't listened to JOAB.

[imperialmarch]

Aug 23, 2016 21:29:35 GMT -5 georgetherunner314 said:

WEEK 40 (Sept. 3, 2016)

Well, unfortunately I have not been able to incorporate the top 50 component charts into this week's update, but here it is.

Notes: 

• No new entries this week although Cold Water and We Don't Talk Anymore (and maybe even Closer) look set to make it next week.
• This week's "cutoff song" according to Casper's predictions last year would be #79, Perfect. That would mean Heathens, For Free, and Into You have all crossed the cutoff this week.
• Stressed Out moves past Hello to #4 while moving past Work on the Hot 100 so maybe there's still hope for it to surpass Work though it only has 4 weeks left.
• Thank goodness Love Yourself and Sorry didn't fall off in the same week; they would've been 2k points apart lol.
• Also, lol at Uber Everywhere getting stuck at #102 for 3 weeks straight before dropping out next week.
• RIP The Sound Of Silence next week.
• I think Don't Let Me Down may actually have a decent chance at reaching the Year-End top 10.
• Another stat: This week's component point distribution averages (for the top 20) were 22% sales, 32% airplay, 47% streams. Streams made up nearly half of the points!

Legend:
Blue = Currently Charting In Top 10
Bold = Currently On Hot 100

This is what the year-end would loook like? Jesus this year sucks, can't wait for december to begin.

[Dylan :)]

Oct 18, 2016 12:30:24 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Oct 18, 2016 6:35:02 GMT -5 scrohr424 said:

Alright, sounds fair. But thank goodness (at least for Ooouuu).

And on that note, Juju On Dat Beat just bursted up 78 spots to #11. NO. UNACCEPTABLE. STAY AWAY FROM THE YEAR-END LIST YOU PIECE OF CRAP.

Dammit! I am so sick of these crappy Hip-Hop tracks hitting the Top 10! Trap Queen, Watch Me, Panda, Broccoli, etc... They are all so terrible (IMO). I hope Juju drops hard next week or at least bubbles under the Top 10, but with our luck it will probably hit the Top 5. Smh.

Bruno, Abel, Drew, Alex, and Halsey. It's your jobs to block this horrendous song from the top spot. 

I completely agree, however, if it is going to be huge (and a future #1), I'd rather it be right now and it be HUGE so that it'll barely make this year's chart and then get caught between years and be low next year

Oct 19, 2016 10:50:25 GMT -5 imperialmarch said:

Aug 23, 2016 21:29:35 GMT -5 georgetherunner314 said:

WEEK 40 (Sept. 3, 2016)



Well, unfortunately I have not been able to incorporate the top 50 component charts into this week's update, but here it is.

This is what the year-end would loook like? Jesus this year sucks, can't wait for december to begin.

Just a tip but if you want to quote a big block of text (especially if you're just going to add one line of text in your reply), you should delete the majority of the thing you're quoting to not take up loads of unneeded space on the page :)

[kcdawg13]

Juju On Dat Beat is so bad. I can't believe it's #11.

Really, I'm stunned. I thought dumb vine memes were dead, but I guess they aren't. Watch Me and Hit The Quan and other stupid dance trends should be left in 2015 and beyond. Never to be seen again.

Juju is now my #1 worst song of 2016, "Hands To Myself" is down to #2. How do you feel america?

[Golden Bluebird]

Oct 19, 2016 10:50:25 GMT -5 imperialmarch said:

Aug 23, 2016 21:29:35 GMT -5 georgetherunner314 said:

WEEK 40 (Sept. 3, 2016)

This is what the year-end would loook like? Jesus this year sucks, can't wait for december to begin.

Why are you quoting George's prediction from nearly two months ago rather than his most recent one?

[inverse]

Umm, I don't wanna be a mini mod or anything, but is it ok if we stop making top 10 lists and get back to the focus of the thread, which is Year End Hot 100 Predictions? Again, really don't want to sound like the forum police but pages 124-127 have been pretty much all opinions on songs, mostly complaining about Meghan Trainor and rap songs. Not saying that you can't comment on what songs you want to land high, it's fine to be like "Really hope Peter Pan makes it, love that song" or "Disappointed that Work will finish top 5" and things like that, but just making posts about top 10 worst song lists was never what this thread was for and I just don't wanna detract from what this thread was supposed to be. Thanks, sorry for the rant 

P. S. Same Old Love is coming for that 42.

[imperialmarch]

Oct 19, 2016 11:02:03 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Juju On Dat Beat is so bad. I can't believe it's #11.

Really, I'm stunned. I thought dumb vine memes were dead, but I guess they aren't. Watch Me and Hit The Quan and other stupid dance trends should be left in 2015 and beyond. Never to be seen again.

Juju is now my #1 worst song of 2016, "Hands To Myself" is down to #2. How do you feel america?

Me too is the worst for me, followed by threat you better and work from home. Work, one dance, sorry, love yourself(dhm), 7 years, no, back to sleep, too good, needed me, gold, i hate you i love you and so much more trash will also make an appearance on my worst list.

[imperialmarch]

Oct 19, 2016 10:58:45 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Oct 18, 2016 12:30:24 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Dammit! I am so sick of these crappy Hip-Hop tracks hitting the Top 10! Trap Queen, Watch Me, Panda, Broccoli, etc... They are all so terrible (IMO). I hope Juju drops hard next week or at least bubbles under the Top 10, but with our luck it will probably hit the Top 5. Smh.

Bruno, Abel, Drew, Alex, and Halsey. It's your jobs to block this horrendous song from the top spot. 

I completely agree, however, if it is going to be huge (and a future #1), I'd rather it be right now and it be HUGE so that it'll barely make this year's chart and then get caught between years and be low next year

Oct 19, 2016 10:50:25 GMT -5 imperialmarch said:

This is what the year-end would loook like? Jesus this year sucks, can't wait for december to begin.

Just a tip but if you want to quote a big block of text (especially if you're just going to add one line of text in your reply), you should delete the majority of the thing you're quoting to not take up loads of unneeded space on the page :)

Good idea

[kcdawg13]

Oct 19, 2016 12:51:13 GMT -5 inverse said:

Umm, I don't wanna be a mini mod or anything, but is it ok if we stop making top 10 lists and get back to the focus of the thread, which is Year End Hot 100 Predictions? Again, really don't want to sound like the forum police but pages 124-127 have been pretty much all opinions on songs, mostly complaining about Meghan Trainor and rap songs. Not saying that you can't comment on what songs you want to land high, it's fine to be like "Really hope Peter Pan makes it, love that song" or "Disappointed that Work will finish top 5" and things like that, but just making posts about top 10 worst song lists was never what this thread was for and I just don't wanna detract from what this thread was supposed to be. Thanks, sorry for the rant 

P. S. Same Old Love is coming for that 42.

Sure, we can get back to the basics. I just wanted to state that Juju is a terrible song.

Now it's time to get back on topic. I really hope Juju doesn't make any YE list, the song doesn't deserve it.

[MTSChart21]

How many points does No Problem have?

[imperialmarch]

Oct 19, 2016 12:33:52 GMT -5 Golden Bluebird said:

Oct 19, 2016 10:50:25 GMT -5 imperialmarch said:

This is what the year-end would loook like? Jesus this year sucks, can't wait for december to begin.

Why are you quoting George's prediction from nearly two months ago rather than his most recent one?

I pressed on the one that was in this threat page, so I haven't got a clue why it shows an old one.

[georgetherunner314]

Oct 19, 2016 8:19:34 GMT -5 bluepotato said:

"Too good" only needs 8.1k points average in the next 4 weeks to pass "low life",so "low life" will probably lose its title as the highest ranking non top ten hit in the last week of the chart year.

Wow, I had not realized that. Guess "Low Life" won't be named the biggest non-Top 10 song of 2016, then.

Oct 19, 2016 13:27:05 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

How many points does No Problem have?

136 143 No Problem Chance The Rapper Ft. Lil Wayne & 2 Chainz 108,030

My predictions of the bottom 50 aren't really accurate as I use estimates that don't vary from week to week for the most part, so the point total could easily be quite incorrect. I still don't think it stands a chance to make year-end, though I'd really like it to, unless it jumps into the top 30 or something.