Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[fhas]

Nov 18, 2018 15:07:51 GMT -5 nick64 said:

Nov 18, 2018 14:53:52 GMT -5 fhas said:

I'll add them next week.

Will you be able to post the Top 200 that previous predictors have at the end of the year, or do you not have all of the information compiled? No worries at all if you don’t, your work is extemely appreciated.

I don't have time to calculate the points for the top 200 songs.

[tanooki]

If anyone is interested, I wouldn't mind doing a top 200

[rockgolf]

Nov 17, 2018 19:13:21 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Nov 17, 2018 13:50:02 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

#89

Why is the difference so big between your all time chart and the hot 100?

I've decided "I don't know" isn't a good enough answer. Which sent me into a deep data dive. So here goes.

The top 3 songs in 2011 were Party Rock Anthem, We Found Love, and Rolling in the Deep. Billboard and I both put PRA as #1. I've got RITD almost 900 points higher than WFL (9044 vs 8163). So why is that?

Week at #1: Adele - 7, Rihanna - 10

Weeks in the top 5: Adele - 15, Rihanna - 16 (all in the top 4!)

Weeks in top 10: Adele - 20, Rihanna - 23

Advantage in all 3 categories: Rihanna.

Weeks in the top 20: Adele - 30, Rihanna - 29. Okay, Adele ekes out a victory here.

Weeks in the top 40: Adele - 53, Rihanna - 37. BOOM! Adele just stuck around WAAAAY longer, piling up medium sided points.

Weeks on the chart: Adele - 65, Rihanna - 41. Again another massive lead by Adele.

Yet on the BB top 600 of all time, WFL is #27 & RIND is #35.

Clearly my weighting algorithm isn't matching well with Billboards. I'm under-rating weeks at #1-5, overrating weeks below the top ten. This is going to take some recalculating to try to get closer to Billboard's rankings.

[Deleted]

Nov 18, 2018 17:21:58 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Nov 17, 2018 19:13:21 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Why is the difference so big between your all time chart and the hot 100?

I've decided "I don't know" isn't a good enough answer. Which sent me into a deep data dive. So here goes.

The top 3 songs in 2011 were Party Rock Anthem, We Found Love, and Rolling in the Deep. Billboard and I both put PRA as #1. I've got RITD almost 900 points higher than WFL (9044 vs 8163). So why is that?

Week at #1: Adele - 7, Rihanna - 10

Weeks in the top 5: Adele - 15, Rihanna - 16 (all in the top 4!)

Weeks in top 10: Adele - 20, Rihanna - 23

Advantage in all 3 categories: Rihanna.

Weeks in the top 20: Adele - 30, Rihanna - 29. Okay, Adele ekes out a victory here.

Weeks in the top 40: Adele - 53, Rihanna - 37. BOOM! Adele just stuck around WAAAAY longer, piling up medium sided points.

Weeks on the chart: Adele - 65, Rihanna - 41. Again another massive lead by Adele.

Yet on the BB top 600 of all time, WFL is #27 & RIND is #35.

Clearly my weighting algorithm isn't matching well with Billboards. I'm under-rating weeks at #1-5, overrating weeks below the top ten. This is going to take some recalculating to try to get closer to Billboard's rankings.

Thanks you for the information ❣️

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Since Psycho is expected to become recurrent this week, the chances of it ending at #5 would be 50/50.

[hydraflare]

Looks like Psycho will pass Rockstar

[jarhys]

Psycho stays!

[rockgolf]

Nov 18, 2018 15:45:06 GMT -5 tanooki said:

If anyone is interested, I wouldn't mind doing a top 200

I'd be happy to post mine too.

[Zach]

Nov 19, 2018 20:41:05 GMT -5 jarhys said:

Psycho stays!

For some reason it feels to me like Psycho has been charting for much longer than 38 weeks. Seems like an eternity.

[Abbaschand]

Here's my highly inaccurate Top 150 of 2018

Billboard Hot 100 2018

No. Week(s) on Chart Peak Song Singer (Main) Points Average

1 46 1 Perfect Ed Sheeran 328500 7141.30

2 49 2 Meant To Be (feat. Florida Georgia Line) Bebe Rexha 295500 6030.61

3 36 1 God's Plan Drake 280000 7777.78

4 38 1 Psycho (feat. Ty Dolla $ign) Post Malone 248500 6539.47

5 40 5 The Middle (feat. Grey) Zedd & Maren Morris 242000 6050.00

6 32 1 I Like It (feat. Bad Bunny and J. Balvin) Cardi B 237000 7406.25

7 33 1 Havana (feat. Young Thug) Camila Cabello 231000 7000.00

8 33 1 Rockstar (feat. 21 Savage) Post Malone 225000 6818.18

9 25 1 Girls Like You (feat. Cardi B) Maroon 5 213000 8520.00

10 29 3 Better Now Post Malone 197000 6793.10

11 27 2 Lucid Dreams Juice WRLD 195500 7240.74

12 25 1 Nice For What Drake 190000 7600.00

13 33 5 Boo'd Up Ella Mai 181000 5484.85

14 39 9 Love Lies (feat. Normani) Khalid 180000 4615.38

15 37 1 Sad! XXXTENTACION 179500 4851.35

16 33 6 New Rules Dua Lipa 176500 5348.48

17 37 6 Never Be the Same Camila Cabello 173500 4689.19

18 36 11 Mine Bazzi 172000 4777.78

19 20 1 In My Feelings Drake 162000 8100.00

20 27 3 No Tears Left to Cry Ariana Grande 161500 5981.48

21 23 3 Finesse (feat. Cardi B) Bruno Mars 157000 6826.09

22 25 5 Look Alive (feat. Drake) BlocBoy JB 152000 6080.00

23 24 4 Thunder Imagine Dragons 151000 6291.67

24 35 12 Delicate Taylor Swift 149500 4271.43

25 27 6 Yes Indeed (feat. Drake) Lil Baby 144000 5333.33

26 25 8 Taste (feat. Offset) Tyga 137500 5500.00

27 29 11 Friends (feat. Anne-Marie) Marshmello 134500 4637.93

28 23 5 Bad at Love Halsey 133000 5782.61

29 36 21 Tequila Dan + Shay 129500 3597.22

30 24 7 Youngblood 5 Seconds of Summer 125500 5229.17

31 24 12 Let You Down NF 125500 5229.17

32 40 27 I Like Me Better Lauv 123500 3087.50

33 20 4 No Limit (feat. A$AP Rocky and Cardi B) G-Eazy 119500 5975.00

34 24 8 Feel It Still Portugal. The Man 118500 4937.50

35 26 18 Back to You Selena Gomez 117000 4500.00

36 26 12 Whatever It Takes Imagine Dragons 116000 4461.54

37 23 16 I Fall Apart Post Malone 115500 5021.74

38 29 13 Ric Flair Drip Offset & Metro Boomin 115000 3965.52

39 15 2 Sicko Mode (feat. Drake) Travis Scott 114000 7600.00

40 20 6 MotorSport Migos, Nicki Minaj & Cardi B 114000 5700.00

41 17 3 Fefe (feat. Nicki Minaj and Murda Beatz) 6ix9ine 113500 6676.47

42 22 10 Walk It Talk It (feat. Drake) Migos 110000 5000.00

43 20 7 Pray for Me The Weeknd & Kendrick Lamar 109500 5475.00

44 20 2 Nonstop Drake 107000 5350.00

45 20 14 Him & I (feat. Halsey) G-Eazy 105000 5250.00

46 23 11 In My Blood Shawn Mendes 103500 4500.00

47 20 11 Love. (feat. Zacari) Kendrick Lamar 102500 5125.00

48 26 15 Heaven Kane Brown 100500 3865.38

49 21 7 All the Stars (feat. SZA) Kendrick Lamar 99000 4714.29

50 21 8 Stir Fry Migos 98500 4690.48

51 18 8 God Is a Woman Ariana Grande 97500 5416.67

52 15 3 Gucci Gang Lil Pump 97000 6466.67

53 24 16 Big Bank (feat. 2 Chainz, Big Sean, and Nicki Minaj) YG 95500 3979.17

54 20 12 Gummo 6ix9ine 95000 4750.00

55 16 5 Bodak Yellow Cardi B 94500 5906.25

56 15 6 Too Good at Goodbyes Sam Smith 93500 6233.33

57 20 8 Freaky Friday Lil Dicky & Chris Brown 93500 4675.00

58 20 20 Wolves (feat. Marshmello) Selena Gomez 92500 4625.00

59 23 24 Wait Maroon 5 91000 3956.52

60 20 13 Plug Walk Rich the Kid 90000 4500.00

61 20 11 Be Careful Cardi B 89000 4450.00

62 17 13 Natural Imagine Dragons 89000 5235.29

63 20 14 Bartier Cardi (feat. 21 Savage) Cardi B 87000 4350.00

64 23 20 Lights Down Low (feat. gnash) MAX 86500 3760.87

65 18 9 Sorry Not Sorry Demi Lovato 85500 4750.00

66 19 21 How Long Charlie Puth 85000 4473.68

67 17 1 This Is America Childish Gambino 84000 4941.18

68 19 18 Young, Dumb, and Broke Khalid 81000 4263.16

69 18 18 Eastside (feat. Halsey and Khalid) Benny Blanco 78500 4361.11

70 21 26 One Kiss (feat. Dua Lipa) Calvin Harris 78500 3738.10

71 13 3 Happier (feat. Bastille) Marshmello 77000 5923.08

72 15 13 Shape of You Ed Sheeran 74500 4966.67

73 20 28 You Make It Easy Jason Aldean 74500 3725.00

74 15 5 No Brainer (feat. Justin Bieber and Friends) DJ Khaled 73000 4866.67

75 15 14 I Get the Bag (feat. Migos) Gucci Mane 73000 4866.67

76 19 29 Sky Walker (feat. Travis Scott) Miguel 71500 3763.16

77 20 32 Simple Florida Georgia Line 71500 3575.00

78 21 36 Te Bote (feat. Friends) Casper Magico 71500 3404.76

79 18 26 Plain Jane (feat. Nicki Minaj) A$AP Ferg 69500 3861.11

80 20 30 Marry Me Thomas Rhett 69500 3475.00

81 21 36 Lemon (feat. Drake) N*E*R*D & Rihanna 69000 3285.71

82 15 11 Trip Ella Mai 68000 4533.33

83 20 21 King's Dead (feat. Kendrick Lamar and Future) Jay Rock 65500 3275.00

84 21 22 Get Along Kenny Chesney 65500 3119.05

85 14 8 1-800-273-8255 (feat. Alessia Cara and Khalid) Logic 63500 4535.71

86 21 41 X Nicky Jam X J. Balvin 63000 3000.00

87 20 13 Moonlight XXXTENTACION 62000 3100.00

88 18 4 Call Out My Name The Weeknd 61500 3416.67

89 20 34 One Number Away Luke Combs 61000 3050.00

90 18 35 I'm a Mess Bebe Rexha 61000 3388.89

91 11 9 What Lovers Do (feat. SZA) Maroon 5 60500 5500.00

92 18 29 Broken lovelytheband 60500 3361.11

93 16 9 Say Something (feat. Chris Stapleton) Justin Timberlake 60000 3750.00

94 16 7 I'm Upset Drake 59500 3718.75

95 20 18 Changes XXXTENTACION 59500 2975.00

96 20 29 Mercy Brett Young 59500 2975.00

97 19 31 Outside Today YoungBoy Never Broke Again 59000 3105.26

98 21 43 Dura Daddy Yankee 59000 2809.52

99 9 4 Drip Too Hard Lil Baby & Gunna 57500 6388.89

100 12 16 Believer Imagine Dragons 55500 4625.00

101 11 10 Mi Gente (feat. Beyonce) J. Balvin & Willy William 55000 5000.00

102 20 41 All Girls Are the Same Juice WRLD 55000 2750.00

103 12 7 Mo Bamba Sheck Wes 54500 4541.67

104 17 28 Powerglide (feat. Juicy J) Rae Sremmurd 54000 3176.47

105 16 10 Chun-Li Nicki Minaj 53500 3343.75

106 15 31 Beautiful (feat. Camila Cabello) Bazzi 53500 3566.67

107 15 8 High Hopes Panic! at the Disco 53000 3533.33

108 15 13 Apecrap The Carters 53000 3533.33

109 19 41 New Freezer (feat. Kendrick Lamar) Rich the Kid 53000 2789.47

110 23 49 IDGAF Dua Lipa 52500 2282.61

111 17 28 Ring (feat. Kehlani) Cardi B 52000 3058.82

112 11 15 Bank Account 21 Savage 50000 4545.45

113 20 42 Sit Next to Me Foster the People 50000 2500.00

114 19 32 Drowns the Whiskey (feat. Miranda Lambert) Jason Aldean 49500 2605.26

115 15 40 Let Me Go (feat. Florida Georgia Line and Watt) Hailee Steinfeld & Alesso 49500 3300.00

116 10 6 I Love It Kanye West & Lil Pump 49000 4900.00

117 12 24 The Way Life Goes (feat. Nicki Minaj) Lil Uzi Vert 49000 4083.33

118 17 48 Good Old Days (feat. Kesha) Macklemore 49000 2882.35

119 19 52 Jackie Chan (feat. Preme and Post Malone) Tiesto & Dzeko 48000 2526.32

120 13 11 River (feat. Ed Sheeran) Eminem 47500 3653.85

121 13 14 Breathin Ariana Grande 47500 3653.85

122 14 31 Roll in Peace (feat. XXXTENTACION) Kodak Black 47000 3357.14

123 14 18 End Game (feat. Ed Sheeran and Future) Taylor Swift 46500 3321.43

124 19 48 Hotel Key Old Dominion 46500 2447.37

125 20 51 Up Down (feat. Florida Georgia Line) Morgan Wallen 46500 2325.00

126 15 28 Japan Famous Dex 45500 3033.33

127 20 54 Pick It Up (feat. A$AP Rocky) Famous Dex 44000 2200.00

128 11 21 Unforgettable (feat. Swae Lee) French Montana 43500 3954.55

129 11 24 Attention Charlie Puth 43500 3954.55

130 14 35 She Got the Best of Me Luke Combs 43500 3107.14

131 16 35 Sunrise, Sunburn, Sunset Luke Bryan 43500 2718.75

132 18 43 Most People are Good Luke Bryan 43500 2416.67

133 18 44 You Say Lauren Daigle 43500 2416.67

134 20 44 Five More Minutes Scotty McCreery 43500 2175.00

135 20 64 Betrayed Lil Xan 43000 2150.00

136 18 34 Candy Paint Post Malone 42500 2361.11

137 20 45 Medicine Queen Naija 42500 2125.00

138 16 49 Yours Russell Dickerson 42500 2656.25

139 20 51 Written in the Sand Old Dominion 42000 2100.00

140 19 50 Singles You Up Jordan Davis 41500 2184.21

141 9 19 Despacito (feat. Justin Bieber) Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee 41000 4555.56

142 19 47 Echame La Culpa Luis Fonsi & Demi Lovato 41000 2157.89

143 7 5 Shallow (feat. Bradley Cooper) Lady Gaga 40500 5785.71

144 18 28 Lose It Kane Brown 40000 2222.22

145 19 53 Tell Me You Love Me Demi Lovato 40000 2105.26

146 10 29 The Weekend SZA 39500 3950.00

147 18 45 Broken Halos Chris Stapleton 39500 2194.44

148 6 4 Without Me Halsey 38500 6416.67

149 9 14 Wake Up in the Sky (feat. Kodak Black) Gucci Mane & Bruno Mars 38500 4277.78

150 20 49 El Farsante Ozuna & Romeo Santos 38500 1925.00


Here's my highly inaccurate weekly point system

No. Points

1 10000

2-3 9000

4-5 8000

6-10 7000

11-15 6000

16-20 5500

21-25 5000

26-30 4500

31-40 4000

41-50 3500

51-60 3000

61-70 2500

71-80 2000

81-90 1500

91-100 1000

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

So Psycho gets the YE #5 on lock.

[tanooki]

2018 Year-End Final Predictions


1. God's Plan 12557
2. Perfect 11983
3. Meant to Be 9402
4. Havana 9076
5. rockstar 8601
6. Psycho 8436
7. I Like It 8165
8. In My Feelings 7701
9. Girls Like You 7443
10. The Middle 6965
11. Nice For What 6687
12. Lucid Dreams 6222
13. Better Now 6018
14. New Rules 5612
15. Finesse 5533
16. Boo'd Up 5486
17. SAD! 5370
18. Never Be the Same 5358
19. Mine 5312
20. Love Lies 5270

21. Yes Indeed 5034
22. No Tears Left to Cry 5003
23. Thunder 5001
24. Taste 4970
25. Look Alive 4918
26. Delicate 4906
27. Bad At Love 4794
28. FRIENDS 4780
29. No Limit 4753
30. FEFE 4740
31. Tequila 4657
32. Let You Down 4612
33. Youngblood 4603
34. I Like Me Better 4584
35. Motorsport 4464
36. Ric Flair Drip 4481
37. Whatever It Takes 4367
38. Feel It Still 4280
39. Pray For Me 4056
40. Back To You 3985

41. SICKO MODE 3670
42. I Fall Apart 3629
43. In My Blood 3610
44. Gucci Gang 3597
45. Walk It Talk It 3523
46. All the Stars 3418
47. Him & I 3314
48. Stir Fry 3202
49. This Is America 3132
50. Nonstop 3114
51. LOVE. 3005
52. Heaven 2950
53. Too Good At Goodbyes 2914
54. GUMMO 2865
55. Plug Walk 2862
56. Be Careful 2839
57. Freaky Friday 2801
58. God is a woman 2781
59. Wait 2683
60. Bodak Yellow 2654

61. Wolves 2645
62. Big Bank 2613
63. How Long 2600
64. Natural 2595
65. Sorry Not Sorry 2592
66. Bartier Cardi 2588
67. One Kiss 2532
68. Young, Dumb & Broke 2445
69. Shape of You 2409
70. Lights Down Low 2393
71. You Make It Easy 2364
72. Skywalker 2350
73. I Get The Bag 2299
74. Happier 2232
75. Te Bote 2218
76. Marry Me 2198
77. Simple 2169
78. Eastside 2167
79. No Brainer 2104
80. Call Out My Name 2044

81. Get Along 2041
82. Plain Jane 2015
83. Moonlight 1998
84. Lemon 1984
85. King's Dead 1970
86. 1-800-273-8255 1954
87. I'm Upset 1953
88. X (Equis) 1936
89. What Lovers Do 1902
90. Changes 1886
91. Trip 1878
92. One Number Away 1885
93. Mercy 1864
94. Say Something 1831
95. Outside Today 1796
96. IDGAF 1753
97. Dura 1747
98. All Girls Are the Same 1685
99. I'm A Mess 1670
100. Powerglide 1647

--

101. APESHIT 1620
102. Chun Li 1616
103. Believer 1601
104. broken 1596
105. New Freezer 1585
106. Drip Too Hard 1579
107. Mi Gente 1559
108. Beautiful 1524
109. Bank Account 1480
110. River 1461

Others:
The Way Life Goes 1450
Ring 1438
Drowns the Whiskey 1410
I Love It 1340
Mo Bamba 1320
Sit Next To Me 1311
High Hopes 1211
Candy Paint 1191
Let Me Go 1043
Japan 955
Roll In Peace 950
thank u, next 912
Lie 888
Betrayed 871
You Say 864
Zombie 815
Killshot 611
Lost In Japan 541
Falling Down 513
Fine China 498
Barbie Dreams 412

[brady47]

Post Malone KILLED it this year!

-Psycho @ #5
-Rockstar @ #6 (#56 last year)
-Better Now @ #13 (and still charting in the top 10)
-I Fall Apart @ #42 (with some of its chart run cut off in 2017)

"Congratulations" gave me so much hype when I was studying for exams lol and it blew up after, amazing to see how successful 2018 was for him!

[brady47]

Really hope "IDGAF" makes it! Seems like it'll be really close

Too bad "New Rules" had a good portion of its chart run cut off in 2017.

[brady47]

It's interesting how many relatively "low peaking songs" are going to end up high on the year end chart

- Mine (#11 peak) - #20 year end
- Delicate (#12 peak) - #24 year end
- Tequila (#21 peak) - #30 year end
- I Like Me Better (#27 peak) - #33 year end (the most impressive to me!)
- Back To You (#18 peak) - #40 year end
- IDGAF (#49 peak) - #99 year end

[Deleted]

Nov 20, 2018 14:18:38 GMT -5 brady47 said:

It's interesting how many relatively "low peaking songs" are going to end up high on the year end chart

- Mine (#11 peak) - #20 year end
- Delicate (#12 peak) - #24 year end
- I Like Me Better (#27 peak) - #33 year end (the most impressive to me!)
- Back To You (#18 peak) - #40 year end
- IDGAF (#49 peak) - #99 year end

Don't forget Tequila, which might make the top 30 despite only peaking at 21.

[tanooki]

Tequila got really fucking lucky with the CMAs giving it a final boost

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Nov 20, 2018 14:24:04 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Nov 20, 2018 14:18:38 GMT -5 brady47 said:

It's interesting how many relatively "low peaking songs" are going to end up high on the year end chart

- Mine (#11 peak) - #20 year end
- Delicate (#12 peak) - #24 year end
- I Like Me Better (#27 peak) - #33 year end (the most impressive to me!)
- Back To You (#18 peak) - #40 year end
- IDGAF (#49 peak) - #99 year end

Don't forget Tequila, which might make the top 30 despite only peaking at 21.

If I'm not mistaken, except for IDGAF, all others had relatively long Hot 100 chart runs of 26 weeks or more.

[rockgolf]

Top 200 songs of 2018 (Modified Inverse Points system)

Here's my top 200 in graphic form. I'll also post in text below for easy searching.

The "weeks" values are for the entire chart run of each song, not just those weeks counted in 2018.

[rockgolf]

And for those who prefer text:

# Pnts Title | Artist
1 8603 Perfect | Ed Sheeran
2 8457 God's Plan | Drake
3 6884 Meant To Be | Bebe Rexha
4 6680 Girls Like You | Maroon 5
5 6318 Rockstar | Post Malone
6 6273 I Like It | Cardi B
7 6211 Psycho | Post Malone
8 6050 Havana | Camila Cabello
9 5703 Nice For What | Drake
10 5201 The Middle | Zedd
11 5174 In My Feelings | Drake
12 5006 Lucid Dreams | Juice Wrld
13 4747 Better Now | Post Malone
14 3982 Boo'd Up | Ella Mai
15 3883 Sad! | Xxxtentacion
16 3812 New Rules | Dua Lipa
17 3653 Finesse | Bruno Mars
18 3646 No Tears Left To Cry | Ariana Grande
19 3604 Never Be The Same | Camila Cabello
20 3581 Love Lies | Khalid
21 3574 Mine | Bazzi
22 3549 Thunder | Imagine Dragons
23 3330 Look Alive | Blocboy JB
24 3093 Yes Indeed | Lil Baby
25 3042 Taste | Tyga
26 3026 Sicko Mode | Travis Scott
27 2895 Delicate | Taylor Swift
28 2817 Bad At Love | Halsey
29 2771 Fefe | 6ix9ine
30 2738 No Limit | G-Eazy
31 2708 Youngblood | 5 Seconds Of Summer
32 2699 Friends | Marshmello
33 2566 Let You Down | NF
34 2542 Motor Sport | Migos
35 2477 Feel It Still | Portugal, The Man
36 2415 Pray For Me | The Weeknd
37 2407 I Fall Apart | Post Malone
38 2361 Gucci Gang | Lil Pump
39 2351 Nonstop | Drake
40 2307 Back To You | Selena Gomez
41 2296 Whatever It Takes | Imagine Dragons
42 2269 Walk It Talk It | Migos
43 2254 Tequila | Dan+Shay
44 2184 Him & I | G-Eazy
45 2125 Bodak Yellow (Money Moves) | Cardi B
46 2088 Ric Flair Drop | Offset
47 2083 God Is A Woman | Ariana Grande
48 2082 I Like Me Better | Lauv
49 2071 Love. | Kendrick Lamar
50 2059 In My Blood | Shawn Mendes
51 2049 All the Stars | Kendrick Lamar
52 2041 Stir Fry | Migos
53 2033 Too Good At Goodbyes | Sam Smith
54 2013 This Is America | Childish Gambino
55 1919 Gummo | 6ix9in
56 1907 Freaky Friday | Lil Dicky
57 1864 Heaven | Kane Brown
58 1832 Natural | Imagine Dragons
59 1811 Big Bank | YG
60 1807 Happier | Marshmello
61 1790 Plug Walk | Rich the Kid
62 1753 Wolves | Selena Gomez
63 1736 Be Careful | Cardi B
64 1721 Sorry Not Sorry | Demi Lovato
65 1673 How Long | Charlie Puth
66 1631 Wait | Maroon 5
67 1612 Bartier Cardi | Cardi B
68 1558 Eastside | Benny Blanco
69 1548 Lights Down Low | Max and Gnash
70 1543 No Brainer | DJ Khaled
71 1508 Young Dumb & Broke | Khalid
72 1496 Shape of You | Ed Sheeran
73 1477 I Get The Bag | Gucci Mane
74 1435 One Kiss | Calvin Harris
75 1398 Trip | Ella Mai
76 1391 Plain Jane | A$AP Ferg
77 1363 Drip Too Hard | Lil Baby
78 1355 You Make It Easy | Jason Aldean
79 1330 What Lovers Do | Maroon 5
80 1277 Moonlight | Xxxtentacion
81 1273 Sky Walker | Miguel
82 1254 1-800-273-8255 | Logic
83 1233 Marry Me | Thomas Rhett
84 1184 Call Out My Name | The Weeknd
85 1177 Te Boté | Casper Magico
86 1173 Simple | Florida Georgia Line
87 1168 I'm Upset | Drake
88 1156 Say Something | Justin Timberlake
89 1145 Mo Bamba | Sheck Wes
90 1143 Mi Gente | J. Balvin
91 1075 King's Dead | Jay Rock
92 1064 I Love It | Kanye West
93 1052 Get Along | Kenny Chesney
94 1042 I'm A Mess | Bebe Rexha
95 1039 Broken | Lovelytheband
96 1013 Lemon | N*E*R*D
97 1001 Believer | Imagine Dragons
98 996 Bank Account | 21 Savage
99 988 Mercy | Brett Young
100 981 Outside Today | YoungBoy Never Broke Again
101 976 High Hopes | Panic! At the Disco
102 967 Zeze | Kodak Black
103 964 Apeshit | The Carters
104 959 Chun-Li | Nicki Minaj
105 959 X | Nicky Jam
106 955 Changes | Xxxtentacion
107 941 One Number Away | Luke Combs
108 924 Beautiful | Bazzi
109 921 Powerglide | Rae Sremmurd
110 916 The Way Life Goes | Lil Uzi Vert
111 914 Without Me | Halsey
112 886 Dura | Daddy Yankee
113 883 Shallow | Lady Gaga
114 857 River | Eminem
115 847 Ring | Cardi B
116 835 Breathin' | Ariana Grande
117 817 Despacito | Luis Fonsi
118 811 All Girls Are The Same | Juice Wrld
119 808 End Game | Taylor Swift
120 805 Taki Taki | DJ Snake
121 794 New Freezer | Rich the Kid
122 789 Attention | Charlie Puth
123 784 Let Me Go | Hailee Steinfeld
124 767 Roll In Peace | Kodak Black
125 761 Unforgettable | French Montana
126 747 Wake Up In The Sky | Gucci Mane
127 747 Drowns The Whiskey | Jason Aldean
128 744 Japan | Famous Dex
129 736 Good Old Days | Macklemore
130 734 IDGAF | Dua Lipa
131 723 The Weekend | SZA
132 708 Sit Next To Me | Foster the People
133 698 She Got The Best Of Me | Luke Combs
134 694 Mia | Bad Bunny
135 685 Lucky You | Eminem
136 680 Jackie Chan | DJ Tiesto
137 660 Thank U, Next | Ariana Grande
138 658 Sunrise, Sunburn, Sunset | Luke Bryan
139 654 Silence | Marshmello
140 649 Up Down | Morgan Wallen
141 648 Uproar | Lil Wayne
142 639 Hotel Key | Old Dominion
143 629 Killshot | Eminem
144 628 Most People Are Good | Luke Bryan
145 618 Yours | Russell Dickerson
146 613 You Say | Lauren Daigle
147 609 Life Changes | Thomas Rhett
148 608 Kod | J. Cole
149 605 Ball For Me | Post Malone
150 599 Pick It Up | Famous Dex
151 596 Candy Paint | Post Malone
152 578 Five More Minutes | Scotty McCreery
153 572 Lose It | Kane Brown
154 564 Betrayed | Lil Xan
155 555 Broken Halos | Chris Stapleton
156 552 Like I Loved You | Brett Young
157 552 Medicine | Queen Naija
158 545 Pills And Automobiles | Chris Brown
159 543 …Ready For It? | Taylor Swift
160 540 Singles You Up | Jordan Davis
161 539 What About Us | P!nk
162 539 Mona Lisa | Lil Wayne
163 535 Drew Barrymore | Bryce Vine
164 534 Esskeetit | Lil Pump
165 532 Tell Me You Love Me | Demi Lovato
166 519 Stargazing | Travis Scott
167 512 Rubbin Off The Paint | YBN Nahmir
168 511 Greatest Love Story | LANCO
169 510 Échame La Culpa | Luis Fonsi
170 497 Written In The Sand | Old Dominion
171 493 El Farsante | Ozuna
172 489 Africa | Weezer
173 483 No Excuses | Meghan Trainor
174 480 Filthy | Justin Timberlake
175 466 Sunflower | Post Malone
176 463 Falling Down | Lil Peep
177 461 Blue Tacoma | Russell Dickerson
178 452 Everybody | Logic
179 448 Break Up in the End | Cole Swindell
180 446 Smile (Living My Best Life) | Lil' Duval
181 432 Don't Matter To Me | Drake
182 426 All On Me | Devin Dawson
183 421 Barbie Dreams | Nicki Minaj
184 416 You Broke Up With Me | Walker Hayes
185 416 Drip | Cardi B
186 416 W O R K I N M E | Quavo
187 410 No Smoke | YoungBoy Never Broke Again
188 406 Losing Sleep | Chris Young
189 404 Lie | NF
190 403 Nowadays | Lil Skies
191 400 Zombie | Bad Wolves
192 394 Drunk Me | Mitchell Tenpenny
193 387 Better | Khalid
194 384 Bed | Nicki Minaj
195 383 All Mine | Kanye West
196 379 Mob Ties | Drake
197 378 Close Friends | Lil Baby
198 375 Round Here Buzz | Eric Church
199 374 That's On Me | Yella Beezy
200 373 Look What You Made Me Do | Taylor Swift

[inverse]

So it looks like there’s gonna be several low peaks on the year end list, albeit not as many as last year.

IDGAF - 49
Dura - 43
X - 41
Te Bote - 36
Lemon - 36
I’m A Mess - 35
One Number Away - 34
Outside Today - 31
Marry Me - 30
Three at 29. Possible that some of these miss though.

[Deleted]

Nov 20, 2018 21:45:10 GMT -5 inverse said:

So it looks like there’s gonna be several low peaks on the year end list, albeit not as many as last year.

IDGAF - 49
Dura - 43
X - 41
Te Bote - 36
Lemon - 36
I’m A Mess - 35
One Number Away - 34
Outside Today - 31
Marry Me - 30
Three at 29. Possible that some of these miss though.

Don't forget Simple, which peaked at 32.

[aussie1]

New rules being top 15 with a #6 peak and only 5 weeks in the top ten seems impressive.

[kimberly]

Nov 21, 2018 2:06:54 GMT -5 aussie1 said:

New rules being top 15 with a #6 peak and only 5 weeks in the top ten seems impressive.

New Rules is a huge, I mean HUUUGE radio hit. I heard it like 5 times in the last two days, more times than Happier or High Hopes if we wanna compare.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Here's my prediction on the YE Hot 100 of 2018:

1. GOD'S PLAN
2. PERFECT
3. MEANT TO BE
4. HAVANA
5. PSYCHO
6. ROCKSTAR
7. I LIKE IT
8. IN MY FEELINGS
9. GIRLS LIKE YOU
10. THE MIDDLE
11. NICE FOR WHAT
12. LUCID DREAMS
13. BETTER NOW
14. BOO'D UP
15. FINESSE
16. SAD!
17. NEW RULES
18. LOVE LIES
19. NEVER BE THE SAME
20. MINE
--
21. NO TEARS LEFT TO CRY
22. LOOK ALIVE
23. THUNDER
24. DELICATE
25. YES INDEED
26. TASTE
27. FRIENDS
28. BAD AT LOVE
29. FEFE
30. LET YOU DOWN
31. TEQUILA
32. YOUNGBLOOD
33. I LIKE ME BETTER
34. NO LIMIT
35. SICKO MODE
36. MOTORSPORT
37. BACK TO YOU
38. WHATEVER IT TAKES
39. FEEL IT STILL
40. RIC FLAIR DRIP
--
41. PRAY FOR ME
42. I FALL APART
43. WALK IT TALK IT
44. GUCCI GANG
45. NONSTOP
46. HIM & I
47. IN MY BLOOD
48. LOVE.
49. THIS IS AMERICA
50. STIR FRY
51. ALL THE STARS
52. TOO GOOD AT GOODBYES
53. HEAVEN
54. FREAKY FRIDAY
55. BODAK YELLOW (MONEY MOVES)
56. BIG BANK
57. GOD IS A WOMAN
58. GUMMO
59. PLUG WALK
60. BE CAREFUL
--
61. WOLVES
62. WAIT
63. BARTIER CARDI
64. SORRY NOT SORRY
65. HOW LONG
66. LIGHTS DOWN LOW
67. NATURAL
68. YOUNG, DUMB, & BROKE
69. ONE KISS
70. HAPPIER
71. EASTSIDE
72. YOU MAKE IT EASY
73. NO BRAINER
74. SHAPE OF YOU
75. TE BOTE
76. I GET THE BAG
77. SIMPLE
78. SKY WALKER
79. MARRY ME
80. PLAIN JANE
--
81. CALL OUT MY NAME
82. LEMON
83. GET ALONG
84. KING'S DEAD
85. TRIP
86. MOONLIGHT
87. I'M UPSET
88. X
89. 1-800-273-8255
90. I'M A MESS
91. WHAT LOVERS DO
92. MERCY
93. ONE NUMBER AWAY
94. CHANGES
95. SAY SOMETHING
96. BROKEN
97. DURA
98. OUTSIDE TODAY
99. IDGAF
100. DRIP TOO HARD

[Abbaschand]

Whoa. We got A LOT of predictor this year! And everybody is predicting differently? I like it!

[rockgolf]

Nov 21, 2018 7:12:13 GMT -5 Abbaschand said:

Whoa. We got A LOT of predictor this year! And everybody is predicting differently? I like it!

But the differences are all pretty small. There's a consensus on nearly all the top ten, as a group, if not the specific sequence. Hope there's some math nerd out there who'll determine which was the most accurate. But I don't think we'll see that list until fhas has posted.

[brady47]

Nov 21, 2018 2:06:54 GMT -5 aussie1 said:

New rules being top 15 with a #6 peak and only 5 weeks in the top ten seems impressive.

It's even more impressive because a good portion of it's chart run was in 2017

[rockgolf]

Nov 21, 2018 13:30:20 GMT -5 brady47 said:

Nov 21, 2018 2:06:54 GMT -5 aussie1 said:

New rules being top 15 with a #6 peak and only 5 weeks in the top ten seems impressive.

It's even more impressive because a good portion of it's chart run was in 2017

When the 2018 YE predictions have settled down, I'll be maintaining a "complete" 2018 chart. It will include the full runs of all songs that first reached their highest position in calendar year 2018 (That is Jan 1 2018-Dec 31 2018.) It'll get updated regularly until the last song to peak in 2018 falls off the chart. My guess would be either Thank U, Next or a song that peaks in December (Happier?).

For the 2017 full-year chart, the last week was only a few weeks ago, when Perfect fell off the Hot 100. You can view that list (and a few earlier years) here.

[Mike Schwartz]

Nov 17, 2018 13:59:59 GMT -5 lazer said:

Nov 17, 2018 13:56:48 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

When does Billboard release the official year-end chart?

December 9.

Is it possible that it will be released on Dec 10th as the 9th is a Sunday?