Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[macabyan]

Sept 30, 2014 9:26:45 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Do you think that One Direction and Carrie Underwood's new single will be able to crackt his year's year-end?

Surely "Story of My Life" by One Direction will position within the top 30. As for "Something in the Water" by Underwood, it will not enter this chart unless it pulls off big numbers to break into the current Hot 100 top 10. This prediction is due on 7 weeks and SIIW is not even released yet in the US.

[Future Captain]

Oct 1, 2014 20:28:53 GMT -5 macabyan said:

Sept 30, 2014 9:26:45 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Do you think that One Direction and Carrie Underwood's new single will be able to crackt his year's year-end?

Surely "Story of My Life" by One Direction will position within the top 30. As for "Something in the Water" by Underwood, it will not enter this chart unless it pulls off big numbers to break into the current Hot 100 top 10. This prediction is due on 7 weeks and SIIW is not even released yet in the US.

Oh okay, and actually, when I say One Direction, it refers to their new single, "Steal My Girl" but looks like unless it could debut at number one, it won't stand a chance

[Daniel Collins]

Week 45: Up to week dated 10/11/2014

Formula: Sales/12 + Airplay/8,700 + Streams/550

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	All About That Bass	63,980	41%	33%	26%
2	Shake It Off	56,580	39%	33%	28%
3	Anaconda	38,090	66%	19%	15%
4	Black Widow	34,790	37%	25%	38%
5	Bang Bang	33,420	38%	31%	31%
6	Stay With Me	27,370	33%	19%	48%
7	Habits (Stay High)	26,230	39%	35%	26%
8	Break Free	26,170	44%	18%	38%
9	Don't Tell 'Em	25,910	25%	24%	51%
10	Rather Be	23,870	34%	30%	36%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
1	1	Pharrell Williams	Happy	1,310,030	32	39	1
2	2	Katy Perry	Dark Horse	1,291,150	46	45	1
3	3	John Legend	All Of Me	1,222,330	26	45	1
4	4	OneRepublic	Counting Stars	974,380	47	45	2
5	5	Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX	Fancy	955,740	22	30	1
6	6	Jason Derulo ft. 2 Chainz	Talk Dirty	850,400	-	33	3
7	7	Pitbull ft. Ke$ha	Timber	798,030	-	33	1
8	8	Ariana Grande ft. Iggy Azalea	Problem	783,140	28	22	2
9	9	Bastille	Pompeii	738,230	-	39	5
10	10	Magic!	Rude	736,670	13	23	1
11	11	DJ Snake & Lil Jon	Turn Down For What	681,650	-	37	4
12	12	Eminem ft. Rihanna	The Monster	667,920	-	26	1
13	13	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	658,520	6	25	2
14	14	Nico And Vinz	Am I Wrong	614,840	18	24	4
15	15	A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera	Say Something	590,430	-	24	4
16	16	Lorde	Team	583,380	-	30	6
17	17	Passenger	Let Her Go	571,440	-	27	5
18	18	Idina Menzel	Let It Go (IM)	559,150	-	33	5
19	19	Lorde	Royals	556,520	-	24	1
20	20	Avicii	Wake Me Up	552,570	-	32	5
21	21	Imagine Dragons	Demons	545,000	-	31	6
22	22	One Direction	Story Of My Life	528,820	-	29	8
27	23	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	488,770	1	12	1
23	24	Chris Brown ft. Lil Wayne, French Montana, Too $hort, Tyga	Loyal	452,190	-	36	9
24	25	American Authors	Best Day Of My Life	449,680	-	35	11
25	26	Calvin Harris	Summer	442,650	-	26	7
26	27	Beyonce ft. Jay-Z	Drunk In Love	432,870	-	20	2
29	28	Disclosure ft. Sam Smith	Latch	415,560	37	28	7
28	29	Ellie Goulding	Burn	410,830	-	25	13
30	30	Jason Derulo ft. Snoop Dogg	Wiggle	397,290	-	21	5
31	31	Miley Cyrus	Wrecking Ball	393,560	-	19	1
32	32	Kid Ink ft. Chris Brown	Show Me	390,550	-	29	13
35	33	Sia	Chandelier	383,550	12	21	8
33	34	Katy Perry	Roar	377,800	-	20	7
34	35	Justin Timberlake	Not A Bad Thing	367,910	-	22	8
42	36	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	360,250	2	6	1
37	37	Maroon 5	Maps	357,740	15	15	6
36	38	Paramore	Ain't It Fun	341,000	-	24	10
40	39	Charli XCX	Boom Clap	335,120	11	17	8
38	40	Aloe Blacc	The Man	328,640	-	20	8
39	41	Florida Georgia Line ft. Luke Bryan	This Is How We Roll	323,390	-	28	15
43	42	Enrique Iglesias ft. Decemer Bueno, Gente De Zona	Bailando	320,000	16	22	12
41	43	MKTo	Classic	307,670	-	27	14
52	44	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	302,560	3	8	2
50	45	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	301,430	4	13	4
48	46	Ariana Grande ft. Zedd	Break Free	299,470	8	13	4
44	47	Imagine Dragons	Radioactive	296,640	-	23	13
45	48	Drake ft. Majid Jordan	Hold On We're Going Home	295,360	-	18	9
46	49	Trey Songz	Na Na	293,810	-	28	21
55	50	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	289,120	5	9	3
47	51	YG ft. Jeezy & Rich Homie Quan	My Hitta	279,410	-	21	19
49	52	Ed Sheeran	Sing	269,230	-	20	13
58	53	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glyne	Rather Be	265,770	10	16	10
51	54	Avicii	Hey Brother	265,370	-	23	16
53	55	Martin Garrix	Animals	262,420	-	25	21
54	56	Brantley Gilbert	Bottoms Up	255,800	-	25	20
56	57	Luke Bryan	Play It Again	252,510	-	20	14
60	58	Coldplay	A Sky Full Of Stars	252,260	21	22	10
57	59	OneRepublic	Love Runs Out	249,940	-	20	15
59	60	Rixton	Me And My Broken Heart	241,220	-	20	14
61	61	Sara Bareilles	Brave	230,670	-	19	23
62	62	Tinashe ft. Schoolboy Q	2 On	226,270	36	21	24
66	63	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	223,570	7	18	7
65	64	Becky G	Shower	219,580	48	17	16
76	65	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	213,030	9	14	9
63	66	Robin Thicke ft. TI, Pharrell	Blurred Lines	212,690	-	17	19
64	67	The Neighbourhood	Sweater Weather	212,490	-	14	14
70	68	Dierks Bentley	Drunk On A Plane	198,460	71	20	27
67	69	Mike-Will-Made-It ft. Miley Cyrus, Wiz Khalifa , Juicy J	23	197,130	-	14	14
68	70	Lady Gaga ft. R.Kelly	Do What U Want	195,540	-	15	16
69	71	Naughty Boy ft. Sam Smith	La La La	195,230	-	20	19
77	72	Lady Antebellum	Bartender	194,850	60	19	31
71	73	Luke Bryan	Drink A Beer	189,700	-	18	31
72	74	Katy Perry	Birthday	189,560	-	18	17
73	75	Shakira ft. Rihanna	Can't Remember To Forget You	188,840	-	19	15
74	76	Beyonce	Partition	188,390	-	21	23
75	77	Michael Jackson & Justin Timberlake	Love Never Felt So Good	187,710	-	20	9
78	78	Zedd ft. Hayley Williams	Stay The Night	185,900	-	13	18
79	79	Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Schoolboy Q and Hollis	White Walls	185,570	-	13	15
80	80	Kongos	Come With Me Now	185,450	-	21	31
81	81	Jake Owen	Beachin'	184,780	-	20	26
82	82	Eric Church	Give Me Back My Hometown	184,350	-	20	36
93	83	Kenny Chesney	American Kids	183,210	34	15	23
83	84	Demi Lovato	Neon Lights	182,160	-	20	36
84	85	Katy Perry	Unconditionally	178,980	-	16	14
85	86	5 Seconds Of Summer	She Looks So Perfect	178,700	-	20	24
91	87	Lil Wayne ft. Drake	Believe Me	178,460	69	18	26
86	88	Lee Brice	I Don't Dance	177,800	-	20	33
87	89	AWOLNATION	Sail	176,340	-	16	32
100	90	Florida Georgia Line	Dirt	174,960	23	12	11
88	91	Miley Cyrus	Adore You	174,670	-	16	21
89	92	TY Dolla $ign & B.O.B.	Paranoid	173,860	-	20	29
90	93	Jason Aldean	When She Says Baby	173,120	-	20	38
92	94	Demi Lovato	Let It Go	171,400	-	20	38
101	95	Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood	Somethin' Bad	168,670	57	19	19
94	96	Nicki Minaj	Pills N Potions	168,340	-	18	24
95	97	Jhene Aiko	The Worst	165,970	-	20	43
96	98	Jerrod Niemann	Drink To That All Night	162,480	-	20	34
97	99	Rascal Flatts	Rewind	161,980	-	20	38
98	100	Thomas Rhett	Get Me Some Of That	161,710	-	20	41

Other Top 20 Songs:

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
112	101	Jason Aldean	Burnin' It Down	161,700	19	10	12
129	111	Ed Sheeran	Don't	150,090	17	16	17
133	119	Echosmith	Cool Kids	140,960	20	12	19
163	144	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	121,190	14	9	14

[Future Captain]

I think Pompeii will end up at number 13-15, considering Rude, Stay WIth Me, Am I Wrong, All About That Bass and possibly Shake It Off will surpass it. It's a shame that it couldn't end up in the top 10. I really wish that it could have a shot in Decade-End Chart. Btw, did anyone here have any prediction or have a source that know about how the Decade-End Chart currently is like? I know this is still very early, with 5 more years that could bring a lot of changes left, but I can't help but wonder. (I think the Decade-End Chart will use inverse point, considering that the rules had already been changed twice at 2012 (On-Demand inclusion), and 2013 (Youtube inclusion), and who know if there will be more change.)

[Daniel Collins]

Future Captain I also have a decade-end predictions unlike the year-end predictions , I used inverse point system in this one. I also gave extra points for songs before the streaming inclusion (Mar.2012)

LW TW Song
1 1 Party Rock Anthem
2 2 We Found Love
3 3 Somebody That I Used To Know
4 4 Rolling In The Deep
5 5 Blurred Lines
6 6 Call Me Maybe
7 7 Dark Horse
8 8 Happy
9 9 Royals
10 10 Moves Like Jagger
11 11 Just The Way You Are
12 12 Thrift Shop
13 13 Tik Tok
14 14 One More Night
15 15 We Are Young
17 16 All Of Me
16 17 Radioactive
18 18 Sexy And I Know It
19 19 Counting Stars
20 20 Someone Like You
21 21 E.T.
22 22 Give Me Everything
23 23 Firework
24 24 Love The Way You Lie
25 25 Locked Out of Heaven
26 26 Dynamite
27 27 California Gurls
29 28 Fancy
28 29 Wake Me Up
30 30 Grenade
31 31 Hey Soul Sister
32 32 OMG
33 33 Need You Now
34 34 Some Nights
35 35 Can't Hold Us
36 36 Roar
37 37 Payphone
38 38 Airplanes
39 39 Timber
40 40 Bad Romance
41 41 Superbass
42 42 f**k You
43 43 Stronger
44 44 Wrecking Ball
45 45 Ho Hey
46 46 Break Your Heart
47 47 Talk Dirty
53 48 Rude
48 49 Set Fire To The Rain
49 50 Teenage Dream
50 51 Good Feeling
51 52 DJ Got Us Fallin' In Love
52 53 Just Give Me A Reason
54 54 The Monster
55 55 Diamonds
56 56 Nothin' On You
57 57 Mirrors
58 58 Lights
59 59 Rude Boy
60 60 Pumped Up Kicks
61 61 Starships
62 62 When I Was Your Man
63 63 Cruise
64 64 Only Girl
65 65 Stereo Hearts
67 66 Problem
66 67 Glad You Came
68 68 Just A Dream
69 69 Get Lucky
70 70 Raise Your Glass
71 71 I Knew You Were Trouble
72 72 Like A G6
73 73 Just Can't Get Enough
74 74 Stay
75 75 Last Friday Night
76 76 I Like It
77 77 Pompeii
78 78 We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together
79 79 What's My Name
80 80 It Will Rain
81 81 S&M
82 82 On The Floor
92 83 Stay With Me
83 84 Born This Way
84 85 Holy Grail
85 86 Bedrock
86 87 Empire State Of Mind
87 88 Imma Be
88 89 We Can't Stop
89 90 We R Who We R
90 91 Gangnam Style
91 92 Wild Ones
93 93 Let her Go
94 94 Wide Awake
95 95 Turn Down For What
96 96 Whistle
97 97 Hold On Were Going home
98 98 Say Something
99 99 What Makes You Beautiful
100 100 Without You

[Daniel Collins]

Oct 8, 2014 13:50:49 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

On a side note, no streaming/radio numbers for top five from the Billboard article this week? :s

So I guess I'll end up assuming the values for another time

[tucomrang]

do you guys think Animals by Maroon 5 and Really Don't Care by Demi have a chance to crack the year-end chart this year?

[Joey]

Oct 9, 2014 9:17:02 GMT -5 tucomrang said:

do you guys think Animals by Maroon 5 and Really Don't Care by Demi have a chance to crack the year-end chart this year?

Animals will, probably. Really Don't Care, I really don't know.

[Deleted]

Oct 9, 2014 9:29:53 GMT -5 Joey said:

Oct 9, 2014 9:17:02 GMT -5 tucomrang said:

do you guys think Animals by Maroon 5 and Really Don't Care by Demi have a chance to crack the year-end chart this year?

Really Don't Care, I really don't know.

And I really don't care [if it does or doesn't, I mean]

[Daniel Collins]

Week 46: Up to week dated 10/18/2014

Formula: Sales/12 + Airplay/8,700 + Streams/550

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	All About That Bass	59,230	43%	28%	29%
2	Shake It Off	55,220	41%	28%	31%
3	Black Widow	33,870	35%	22%	43%
4	Bang Bang	32,670	39%	27%	34%
5	Anaconda	31,830	63%	19%	18%
6	Habits (Stay High)	28,690	43%	26%	31%
7	Don't Tell 'Em	25,630	25%	24%	51%
8	Animals (2)	24,750	44%	39%	17%
9	Stay With Me	24,630	35%	17%	48%
10	Break Free	24,260	45%	16%	39%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
1	1	Pharrell Williams	Happy	1,322,650	33	40	1
2	2	Katy Perry	Dark Horse	1,301,450	47	46	1
3	3	John Legend	All Of Me	1,236,190	27	46	1
4	4	OneRepublic	Counting Stars	984,380	50	46	2
5	5	Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX	Fancy	969,180	30	31	1
6	6	Jason Derulo ft. 2 Chainz	Talk Dirty	850,400	-	33	3
7	7	Pitbull ft. Ke$ha	Timber	798,030	-	33	1
8	8	Ariana Grande ft. Iggy Azalea	Problem	795,400	35	23	2
10	9	Magic!	Rude	756,970	14	24	1
9	10	Bastille	Pompeii	738,230	-	39	5
13	11	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	683,150	9	26	2
11	12	DJ Snake & Lil Jon	Turn Down For What	681,650	-	37	4
12	13	Eminem ft. Rihanna	The Monster	667,920	-	26	1
14	14	Nico And Vinz	Am I Wrong	631,500	22	25	4
15	15	A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera	Say Something	590,430	-	24	4
16	16	Lorde	Team	583,380	-	30	6
17	17	Passenger	Let Her Go	571,440	-	27	5
18	18	Idina Menzel	Let It Go (IM)	559,150	-	33	5
19	19	Lorde	Royals	556,520	-	24	1
20	20	Avicii	Wake Me Up	552,570	-	32	5
23	21	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	548,000	1	13	1
21	22	Imagine Dragons	Demons	545,000	-	31	6
22	23	One Direction	Story Of My Life	528,820	-	29	8
24	24	Chris Brown ft. Lil Wayne, French Montana, Too $hort, Tyga	Loyal	452,190	-	36	9
25	25	American Authors	Best Day Of My Life	449,680	-	35	11
26	26	Calvin Harris	Summer	442,650	-	26	7
27	27	Beyonce ft. Jay-Z	Drunk In Love	432,870	-	20	2
28	28	Disclosure ft. Sam Smith	Latch	426,460	41	29	7
36	29	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	415,470	2	7	1
29	30	Ellie Goulding	Burn	410,830	-	25	13
33	31	Sia	Chandelier	403,660	15	22	8
30	32	Jason Derulo ft. Snoop Dogg	Wiggle	397,290	-	21	5
31	33	Miley Cyrus	Wrecking Ball	393,560	-	19	1
32	34	Kid Ink ft. Chris Brown	Show Me	390,550	-	29	13
34	35	Katy Perry	Roar	377,800	-	20	7
37	36	Maroon 5	Maps	376,510	18	16	6
35	37	Justin Timberlake	Not A Bad Thing	367,910	-	22	8
39	38	Charli XCX	Boom Clap	354,860	16	18	8
38	39	Paramore	Ain't It Fun	341,000	-	24	10
42	40	Enrique Iglesias ft. Decemer Bueno, Gente De Zona	Bailando	336,690	21	23	12
45	41	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	335,300	3	14	3
44	42	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	334,390	5	9	2
40	43	Aloe Blacc	The Man	328,640	-	20	8
46	44	Ariana Grande ft. Zedd	Break Free	323,730	10	14	4
41	45	Florida Georgia Line ft. Luke Bryan	This Is How We Roll	323,390	-	28	15
50	46	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	321,790	4	10	3
43	47	MKTo	Classic	307,670	-	27	14
47	48	Imagine Dragons	Radioactive	296,640	-	23	13
48	49	Drake ft. Majid Jordan	Hold On We're Going Home	295,360	-	18	9
49	50	Trey Songz	Na Na	293,810	-	28	21
53	51	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glyne	Rather Be	288,450	11	17	10
51	52	YG ft. Jeezy & Rich Homie Quan	My Hitta	279,410	-	21	19
52	53	Ed Sheeran	Sing	269,230	-	20	13
58	54	Coldplay	A Sky Full Of Stars	266,800	25	23	10
54	55	Avicii	Hey Brother	265,370	-	23	16
55	56	Martin Garrix	Animals	262,420	-	25	21
56	57	Brantley Gilbert	Bottoms Up	255,800	-	25	20
57	58	Luke Bryan	Play It Again	252,510	-	20	14
63	59	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	252,260	6	19	6
59	60	OneRepublic	Love Runs Out	249,940	-	20	15
60	61	Rixton	Me And My Broken Heart	241,220	-	20	14
65	62	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	238,660	7	15	7
62	63	Tinashe ft. Schoolboy Q	2 On	238,560	34	22	24
61	64	Sara Bareilles	Brave	230,670	-	19	23
64	65	Becky G	Shower	229,380	51	18	16
66	66	Robin Thicke ft. TI, Pharrell	Blurred Lines	212,690	-	17	19
67	67	The Neighbourhood	Sweater Weather	212,490	-	14	14
72	68	Lady Antebellum	Bartender	202,250	63	20	31
68	69	Dierks Bentley	Drunk On A Plane	198,460	-	20	27
69	70	Mike-Will-Made-It ft. Miley Cyrus, Wiz Khalifa , Juicy J	23	197,130	-	14	14
70	71	Lady Gaga ft. R.Kelly	Do What U Want	195,540	-	15	16
71	72	Naughty Boy ft. Sam Smith	La La La	195,230	-	20	19
83	73	Kenny Chesney	American Kids	193,310	49	16	23
73	74	Luke Bryan	Drink A Beer	189,700	-	18	31
74	75	Katy Perry	Birthday	189,560	-	18	17
75	76	Shakira ft. Rihanna	Can't Remember To Forget You	188,840	-	19	15
90	77	Florida Georgia Line	Dirt	188,810	28	13	11
76	78	Beyonce	Partition	188,390	-	21	23
77	79	Michael Jackson & Justin Timberlake	Love Never Felt So Good	187,710	-	20	9
78	80	Zedd ft. Hayley Williams	Stay The Night	185,900	-	13	18
79	81	Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Schoolboy Q and Hollis	White Walls	185,570	-	13	15
80	82	Kongos	Come With Me Now	185,450	-	21	31
81	83	Jake Owen	Beachin'	184,780	-	20	26
82	84	Eric Church	Give Me Back My Hometown	184,350	-	20	36
87	85	Lil Wayne ft. Drake	Believe Me	183,410	81	19	26
84	86	Demi Lovato	Neon Lights	182,160	-	20	36
85	87	Katy Perry	Unconditionally	178,980	-	16	14
86	88	5 Seconds Of Summer	She Looks So Perfect	178,700	-	20	24
101	89	Jason Aldean	Burnin' It Down	178,430	20	11	12
88	90	Lee Brice	I Don't Dance	177,800	-	20	33
95	91	Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood	Somethin' Bad	176,670	60	20	19
89	92	AWOLNATION	Sail	176,340	-	16	32
91	93	Miley Cyrus	Adore You	174,670	-	16	21
92	94	TY Dolla $ign & B.O.B.	Paranoid	173,860	-	20	29
93	95	Jason Aldean	When She Says Baby	173,120	-	20	38
94	96	Demi Lovato	Let It Go	171,400	-	20	38
111	97	Ed Sheeran	Don't	169,000	17	17	17
96	98	Nicki Minaj	Pills N Potions	168,340	-	18	24
105	99	Schoolboy Q ft. BJ The Chicago Kid	Studio	167,420	58	18	38
97	100	Jhene Aiko	The Worst	165,970	-	20	43

Other Top 20 Songs:

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
119	107	Echosmith	Cool Kids	158,840	19	13	19
144	117	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	143,530	12	10	12
216	189	Maroon 5	Animals (2)	79,430	8	7	8
418	287	One Direction	Steal My Girl	20,860	13	1	13

To answer tucomrang's question: "Really Don't Care" climbs 103-101 now that the song is at #93 on the Hot 100 on its 18th week (1 week is counted in 2013 so only 17 for 2014).

[Daniel Collins]

Hey macabyan! Why did you delete your question?

His question is whether "Talk Dirty" would stay at #6 or some song might beat it.

^"Rude" is the closest but it needs 93k+ points to do that but we only have 6 weeks left and "Rude" might just get 70k points max so I think the top 6 is now fixed. The only thing that could happen is the switch between "Fancy" and "Counting Stars".

[macabyan]

Haha never mind that, thank you very much!

"Hey Daniel, do you think any song can still dethrone Talk Dirty from #6? I don't think it deserves it."

Oct 11, 2014 2:10:50 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

6	6	Jason Derulo ft. 2 Chainz	Talk Dirty	850,400	-	33	3

[Deleted]

Oct 9, 2014 9:17:02 GMT -5 tucomrang said:

do you guys think Animals by Maroon 5 and Really Don't Care by Demi have a chance to crack the year-end chart this year?

"Animals" will make it because is in its 7th week on the Hot 100 and is now in the Top 10 with no chance of slowing down, and with 5 weeks left, I think is a given. For "Really Don't Care" however, is a whole different story. The only way that song makes it is if it charts the full 20 weeks and no less. A #26 peak is less than inspiring, so unless it charts the entire 20 weeks, it won't make the cut, and right now it seems unlikely given that is currently at #93 in its 18th week and is been dropping significantly, so is not looking good for that song.

[jarhys]

Will All About That Bass make it to the top 10?
6 weeks for 200K+ points

[Deleted]

Wow that's a big gap between 2 and 3 this week! I guess Black Widow and Bang Bang might not ever reach higher than their #3 peak then :(
And Radioactive won't make top 50 I guess :(
And if Fancy will be still on the chart for two more weeks after CS then it will pass it for sure.
And I doubt that AATB will get top ten tbh. At this point the songs start crashing and it needs 40k average weekly points over the next 6 weeks which probably won't happen but I guess it is possible. I just don't feel like it will hold up that long

[Daniel Collins]

My prediction for week 52:
Top 6 seems on lock.
1. Happy
2. Dark Horse
3. All Of Me
4. Fancy
5. Counting Stars
6. Talk Dirty
7-8 Rude vs. Problem , for now I'll go for Rude(7) and Problem(8)
9-10 "Timber" vs. "Pompeii" vs. "Stay With Me" vs. "All About That Bass"
For now I'll go for "Timber" at #9 and "Stay With Me" at #10, AATB(11) Pompeii(12)

[Future Captain]

I think, once AATB and SIO reach top 20 in the Year-End, there will be no other songs that would enter the top 20.
This is how I think top 20 Year-End is going to be:
1. Happy
2. Dark Horse
3. All of Me
4. Fancy
5. Counting Stars (Ironic echo, anyone?)
6. Talk Dirty
7. Rude
8. Problem
9. Stay With Me
10. AATB
11. Timber
12. Pompeii
13. TDFW
14. Am I Wrong
15. The Monster
16. Shake It Off
17. Say Something
18. Team
19. Let Her Go
20. Let It Go (Basically, Let ... Go in a stack)
Kudos for anyone who get why Counting Stars position is an ironic echo

[rimetm]

Oct 12, 2014 7:03:58 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Kudos for anyone who get why Counting Stars position [#5] is an ironic echo

Easy, and it extends to more than the position! Both had their first year-end in the 60s (#66 for Apologize and #63 for Counting Stars), both end up with the majority of their 25 top 10 weeks in the second year (both reaching #2 peaks as well), and ending up at #5 on the year-end of their second appearance.

[Daniel Collins]

Week 47: Up to week dated 10/25/2014

Formula: Sales/12 + Airplay/8,700 + Streams/550

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	All About That Bass	55,230	44%	26%	30%
2	Shake It Off	51,920	40%	27%	33%
3	Black Widow	31,740	34%	20%	46%
4	Habits (Stay High)	31,690	41%	26%	33%
5	Bang Bang	31,100	39%	25%	36%
6	Don't Tell 'Em	25,970	24%	24%	52%
7	Animals	24,220	38%	39%	23%
8	Anaconda	23,950	57%	23%	20%
9	Stay With Me	23,790	34%	19%	47%
10	Hot Boy	22,490	68%	19%	13%

Strong points for top 2, average for Nos.3-5 and LOW for 6-10. In an average week the #10 song is getting 25k-30k points.

The last movement in the top 5 would happen next week as "Fancy"is going to beat "Counting Stars". As of now, I'm still not sure if "All About That Bass" would make the top 10. We'll only have 5 weeks after this so , we are getting nearer the final year-end.

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
1	1	Pharrell Williams	Happy	1,334,880	35	41	1
2	2	Katy Perry	Dark Horse	1,312,150	43	47	1
3	3	John Legend	All Of Me	1,250,460	24	47	1
4	4	OneRepublic	Counting Stars	984,380	-	46	2
5	5	Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX	Fancy	981,640	33	32	1
6	6	Jason Derulo ft. 2 Chainz	Talk Dirty	850,400	-	33	3
8	7	Ariana Grande ft. Iggy Azalea	Problem	806,240	40	24	2
7	8	Pitbull ft. Ke$ha	Timber	798,030	-	33	1
9	9	Magic!	Rude	776,010	15	25	1
10	10	Bastille	Pompeii	738,230	-	39	5
11	11	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	706,940	9	27	2
12	12	DJ Snake & Lil Jon	Turn Down For What	681,650	-	37	4
13	13	Eminem ft. Rihanna	The Monster	667,920	-	26	1
14	14	Nico And Vinz	Am I Wrong	647,300	21	26	4
21	15	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	603,230	1	14	1
15	16	A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera	Say Something	590,430	-	24	4
16	17	Lorde	Team	583,380	-	30	6
17	18	Passenger	Let Her Go	571,440	-	27	5
18	19	Idina Menzel	Let It Go (IM)	559,150	-	33	5
19	20	Lorde	Royals	556,520	-	24	1
20	21	Avicii	Wake Me Up	552,570	-	32	5
22	22	Imagine Dragons	Demons	545,000	-	31	6
23	23	One Direction	Story Of My Life	528,820	-	29	8
29	24	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	467,390	2	8	1
24	25	Chris Brown ft. Lil Wayne, French Montana, Too $hort, Tyga	Loyal	452,190	-	36	9
25	26	American Authors	Best Day Of My Life	449,680	-	35	11
26	27	Calvin Harris	Summer	442,650	-	26	7
28	28	Disclosure ft. Sam Smith	Latch	437,630	38	30	7
27	29	Beyonce ft. Jay-Z	Drunk In Love	432,870	-	20	2
31	30	Sia	Chandelier	422,880	14	23	8
30	31	Ellie Goulding	Burn	410,830	-	25	13
32	32	Jason Derulo ft. Snoop Dogg	Wiggle	397,290	-	21	5
33	33	Miley Cyrus	Wrecking Ball	393,560	-	19	1
36	34	Maroon 5	Maps	393,370	19	17	6
34	35	Kid Ink ft. Chris Brown	Show Me	390,550	-	29	13
35	36	Katy Perry	Roar	377,800	-	20	7
38	37	Charli XCX	Boom Clap	372,110	17	19	8
37	38	Justin Timberlake	Not A Bad Thing	367,910	-	22	8
41	39	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	367,040	3	15	3
42	40	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	358,340	8	10	2
46	41	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	352,890	5	11	3
40	42	Enrique Iglesias ft. Decemer Bueno, Gente De Zona	Bailando	351,820	22	24	12
44	43	Ariana Grande ft. Zedd	Break Free	345,070	11	15	4
39	44	Paramore	Ain't It Fun	341,000	-	24	10
43	45	Aloe Blacc	The Man	328,640	-	20	8
45	46	Florida Georgia Line ft. Luke Bryan	This Is How We Roll	323,390	-	28	15
51	47	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glyne	Rather Be	308,650	12	18	10
47	48	MKTo	Classic	307,670	-	27	14
48	49	Imagine Dragons	Radioactive	296,640	-	23	13
49	50	Drake ft. Majid Jordan	Hold On We're Going Home	295,360	-	18	9
50	51	Trey Songz	Na Na	293,810	-	28	21
59	52	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	283,950	4	20	4
54	53	Coldplay	A Sky Full Of Stars	280,420	30	24	10
52	54	YG ft. Jeezy & Rich Homie Quan	My Hitta	279,410	-	21	19
53	55	Ed Sheeran	Sing	269,230	-	20	13
55	56	Avicii	Hey Brother	265,370	-	23	16
62	57	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	264,630	6	16	6
56	58	Martin Garrix	Animals	262,420	-	25	21
57	59	Brantley Gilbert	Bottoms Up	255,800	-	25	20
58	60	Luke Bryan	Play It Again	252,510	-	20	14
63	61	Tinashe ft. Schoolboy Q	2 On	250,370	36	23	24
60	62	OneRepublic	Love Runs Out	249,940	-	20	15
61	63	Rixton	Me And My Broken Heart	241,220	-	20	14
65	64	Becky G	Shower	238,380	55	19	16
64	65	Sara Bareilles	Brave	230,670	-	19	23
66	66	Robin Thicke ft. TI, Pharrell	Blurred Lines	212,690	-	17	19
67	67	The Neighbourhood	Sweater Weather	212,490	-	14	14
77	68	Florida Georgia Line	Dirt	202,470	29	14	11
68	69	Lady Antebellum	Bartender	202,250	-	20	31
73	70	Kenny Chesney	American Kids	201,110	61	17	23
69	71	Dierks Bentley	Drunk On A Plane	198,460	-	20	27
70	72	Mike-Will-Made-It ft. Miley Cyrus, Wiz Khalifa , Juicy J	23	197,130	-	14	14
71	73	Lady Gaga ft. R.Kelly	Do What U Want	195,540	-	15	16
89	74	Jason Aldean	Burnin' It Down	195,260	20	12	12
72	75	Naughty Boy ft. Sam Smith	La La La	195,230	-	20	19
74	76	Luke Bryan	Drink A Beer	189,700	-	18	31
75	77	Katy Perry	Birthday	189,560	-	18	17
97	78	Ed Sheeran	Don't	188,950	13	18	13
76	79	Shakira ft. Rihanna	Can't Remember To Forget You	188,840	-	19	15
78	80	Beyonce	Partition	188,390	-	21	23
85	81	Lil Wayne ft. Drake	Believe Me	188,060	87	20	26
79	82	Michael Jackson & Justin Timberlake	Love Never Felt So Good	187,710	-	20	9
80	83	Zedd ft. Hayley Williams	Stay The Night	185,900	-	13	18
81	84	Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Schoolboy Q and Hollis	White Walls	185,570	-	13	15
82	85	Kongos	Come With Me Now	185,450	-	21	31
83	86	Jake Owen	Beachin'	184,780	-	20	26
84	87	Eric Church	Give Me Back My Hometown	184,350	-	20	36
86	88	Demi Lovato	Neon Lights	182,160	-	20	36
87	89	Katy Perry	Unconditionally	178,980	-	16	14
88	90	5 Seconds Of Summer	She Looks So Perfect	178,700	-	20	24
90	91	Lee Brice	I Don't Dance	177,800	-	20	33
107	92	Echosmith	Cool Kids	176,790	16	14	16
91	93	Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood	Somethin' Bad	176,670	-	20	19
92	94	AWOLNATION	Sail	176,340	-	16	32
99	95	Schoolboy Q ft. BJ The Chicago Kid	Studio	174,820	63	19	38
93	96	Miley Cyrus	Adore You	174,670	-	16	21
94	97	TY Dolla $ign & B.O.B.	Paranoid	173,860	-	20	29
95	98	Jason Aldean	When She Says Baby	173,120	-	20	38
96	99	Demi Lovato	Let It Go	171,400	-	20	38
98	100	Nicki Minaj	Pills N Potions	168,340	-	18	24

Other Top 20 Songs:

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
117	101	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	166,020	10	11	10
115	105	Jason Derulo	Trumpets	164,180	18	20	18
189	171	Maroon 5	Animals (2)	103,650	7	8	7

[rimetm]

Typo: Trumpets should be bold and its position is #18 (hence why you gave info on it ). I don't know if this affects the points it has.

[Daniel Collins]

^Noticed it before you commented but still ,thanks. I like it better when it is noticed immediately.

No, it doesn't affect the points. The formatting is the only one that depends on the position on Hot 100 and that's just the column that I haven't updated.

[rimetm]

By the way, I must thank you so much for doing this chart. I'm a stepmaker, and I've been using your chart as a reference for what songs to step and safely put up for claims for a massive collaboration project that eventually will step all 100 year-end tracks. A YouTube chartmaker I correspond with is also aware of this thread, as he released a top 100 for now video around the end of September!

[macabyan]

I agree with rimetm. I'm a mashup artist and this chart has been really beneficial on choosing which songs I should include on my year-end mix. Kudos Daniel!

[Daniel Collins]

Wow! That's great. Yes, Jillboard has informed me before posting the video on YouTube. Don't forget to post the final outcome of your project here. :)

So how many songs have you have finished/claimed?

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

I must now accept the reality that CS won't be higher than Fancy :'( :'( :'( I'm also thinking Rude won't pass Problem at this rate.... could still happen but I'm not sure. Rude will definitely pass Timber for sure though

[Daniel Collins]

rimetm macabyan Thanks for making my day!




I wasn't aware that this is helping both of you in some way. Post your final projects in here if you like or you could just pm me :)

Mr. Thonk Eyes There's still a chance for "Rude" to beat "Problem". Don't lose hope. "Problem" is in the #40 and I don't think it could stay for the next 5 weeks and "Rude" would still be in the 21-30 range once the year is over.

[Deleted]

I honestly don't think either "Drink A Beer" or "Give Me Back My Hometown" will make the official list, because neither song had an impressive chart run. I think GMBMH won't be there because it spent most of its time in the 40's and 50's, and that really won't get you on the year end list, and "Drink A Beer" charted less than 20 weeks. If it had charted the full 20, it'd be there, but a song that peaked at 31 with 18 weeks, that's not going to get it done. I actually think "All About That Bass" has a good chance at making the Top 10 in the official list, given how much it's sold and everything, it could do what "Roar" did last year, make the year end Top 10 despite being released late in the summer. I think "Rude" will be above "Problem" in the official list simply because it was #1, and "Timber" won't make the Top 10. And I think "Bang Bang", "Black Widow", and "Anaconda" will be in the Top 20 on the official list since they've been in the Top 10 for a while. And there's a strong possibility that either "Jealous" or "I'm Not The Only One" might make a late run to make the official list, if one or both of those songs reach the Top 10 by the end of the year, they might enter the list because they'll finish the year with double-digit weeks, and for being in the Top 10, that's big. But anyways, I like your predictions and your lists, and these are just based on numbers you do, and is just fun to guess. I always look forward to these, It'll be interesting to seeing how it looks in 5 weeks.

[Deleted]

Oct 18, 2014 12:12:15 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

rimetm macabyan Thanks for making my day!




I wasn't aware that this is helping both of you in some way. Post your final projects in here if you like or you could just pm me :)

Mr. Thonk Eyes There's still a chance for "Rude" to beat "Problem". Don't lose hope. "Problem" is in the #40 and I don't think it could stay for the next 5 weeks and "Rude" would still be in the 21-30 range once the year is over.

Lmao that picture though! What song is that from anyway? (I've been wondering for some time now)

[Joey]

Oct 18, 2014 15:22:47 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Oct 18, 2014 12:12:15 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

rimetm macabyan Thanks for making my day!




I wasn't aware that this is helping both of you in some way. Post your final projects in here if you like or you could just pm me :)

Mr. Thonk Eyes There's still a chance for "Rude" to beat "Problem". Don't lose hope. "Problem" is in the #40 and I don't think it could stay for the next 5 weeks and "Rude" would still be in the 21-30 range once the year is over.

Lmao that picture though! What song is that from anyway? (I've been wondering for some time now)

That's the title lol, Thank You by MKTO. Good song, but still prefer Classic.

[Deleted]

Oct 18, 2014 21:37:20 GMT -5 Joey said:

Oct 18, 2014 15:22:47 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Lmao that picture though! What song is that from anyway? (I've been wondering for some time now)

That's the title lol, Thank You by MKTO. Good song, but still prefer Classic.

Really? :O that doesn't look like them at all in the pic! I actually thought it was Austin Mahone and Big Sean or something haha