Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[spicymapping]

May 28, 2019 17:53:02 GMT -5 dynamac said:

Does Robbery basically have no chance?

It has a chance. By my model, it's 6 weeks away from getting that lock, and that's exactly how many weeks it's got left. It's gonna need a severe ex-machina to get all of those weeks, but it at least can.

[claystripe]

Close Friends really is gonna stay in the 50s the rest of the year, huh?

[Deleted]

I believe the only reason Close Friends wasn't knocked out this week is because it would have gained in chart position if not for the album bombs and Halsey's new song (I think it would have made the top 50). With it staying another week, it's pretty much locked for the 2019 year end list even if they don't count November 24th.

Speaking of recurrent songs, Speechless might have a chance of re-charting next week as it is still gaining in performance. It is currently at 50-54 if it were still on the charts this week and would have been above 50 if not for the album bombs. If it charts for 1-3 weeks (depending if November 24th is counted or not), it should be locked for the 2019 year end list.

[spicymapping]

6/1 Update Woohoo!
Added: Suge
Removed: RATCT
Locked: Pure Water, Bad Guy

1. Without Me (=)
2. Sunflower (=)
3. thank u, next(=)

2018 Top 10 Cutoff - 7,000

4. Happier (=)
5. SICKO MODE (=)
6. 7 Rings (=)
7. High Hopes (=)
8. Wow. (=)

2018 Top 20 Cutoff - 1,805

9. Girls Like You (=)
10. Eastside (=)
11. Shallow (=)
12. Drip Too Hard (=)
13. Old Town Road (+1)
14. Going Bad (-1)
15. Better (=)
16. MIDDLE CHILD (+1)
17. ZEZE (-1)
18. Sucker (+3)
19. Better Now (-1)
20. Youngblood (-1)
21. Money (-1)
22. Dancing With a Stranger (+2)
23. Sweet But Psycho (+2)
24. Please Me (-1)
25. MIA (-3)
26. a lot (=)

2018 Top 50 Cutoff - 2,810

27. Lucid Dreams (=)
28. Thotiana (+1)
29. Mo Bamba (-1)
30. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (+2)
31. Wake Up In The Sky (-1)
32. Be Alright (-1)
33. Beautiful Crazy (+3)
34. Close To Me (-1)
35. Taki Taki (-1)
36. You Say (-1)
37. Look Back At It (=)
38. Talk (+6)
39. I Like It (-1)
40. Leave Me Alone (-1)
41. Breathin (-1)
42. Murder on My Mind (-1)
43. Envy Me (-1)
44. When The Party’s Over (+1)
45. Baby Shark (-2)
46. Bad Guy (+7)
47. Pure Water (+4)
48. Bury a Friend (+1)
49. Trip (-3)
50. Swervin (-3)
51. Close Friends (-1)
52. Tequila (-4)
53. Love Lies (-1)

2018 Top 100 Cutoff - 1,480

54. Beautiful (=)
55. Speechless (=)
56. Here Tonight (+2) (Weeks Away: 4, Weeks Left: 0)
57. All I Want for Christmas Is You (-1)
58. This is It (-1)
59. Con Calma (+3) (Weeks Away: 2)
60. Natural (-1)
61. Girl Like You (-1)
62. Backin’ It Up (-1)
63. Robbery (+4) (Weeks Away: 6, Weeks Left: 6)
64. Armed And Dangerous (-1)
65. Mixed Personalities (-1)
66. Uproar (-1)
67. Make It Sweet (-1)
68. ME! (+16) (Weeks Away: 2)
69. Ella Quiere Beber (-1)
70. Act Up (+4) (Weeks Away: 4)
71. Calling My Spirit (-2)
72. This Feeling (-2)
73. Put a Date On It (=) (Weeks Away: 7, Weeks Left: 3)
74. Who Do You Love (+2) (Weeks Away: 8, Weeks Left: 5)
75. Eyes On You (+3) (Weeks Away: 6, Weeks Left: 6)
76. Millionaire (-5)
77. Twerk (-5)
78. Sixteen (-3)
79. Whiskey Glasses (+11) (Weeks Away: 4)
80. Arms Around You (-3)
81. Miss Me More (+5) (Weeks Away: 8, Weeks Left: 4)
82. Pure Cocaine (-3)
83. Burning Man (-3)
84. Best Shot (-3)
85. Good As You (+8) (Weeks Away: 6)
86. Worth It (+3) (Weeks Away: 8, Weeks Left: 6)
87. Good Girl (-5)
88. Shot Clock (-5)
89. Here With Me (+6) (Weeks Away: 7, Weeks Left: 9)
90. She Got The Best of Me (-5)
91. Lovely (-4)
92. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart (-4)
93. Suge (NEW) (Weeks Away: 4)
94. BAD! (-3)
95. Talk To Me (-3)
96. Take It From Me (-2)
97. Look What God Gave Her (+3) (Weeks Away: 8)
98. Girls Need Love (+1) (Weeks Away: 12, Weeks Left: 7)
99. Undecided (-3)
100. It’s The Most Wonderful Time of the Year (-3)

[kcdawg13]

thank u, next finishing Top 10 would be killer

[Groovy]

How is 7 rings and Old Town Road not projected to finish in the top 5 and they’re the longest number 1’s this year?

[samo🦕]

May 31, 2019 14:02:50 GMT -5 Groovy said:

How is 7 rings and Old Town Road not projected to finish in the top 5 and they’re the longest number 1’s this year?

That's just showing where the songs are now. By the end of the year, they'll have a lot more points, so they'll be much higher than they currently are. The list isn't a prediction of the eventual YE, it's just showing which songs have more points as of now.

[spicymapping]

^What he said. If I had to predict from this moment what the YE Top 10 is gonna look like I'm gonna say

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Wow.
5. 7 Rings
6. Bad Guy
7. Happier
8. Sucker
9. thank u, next
10. SICKO MODE

[Mylo13 💜]

May 29, 2019 1:16:54 GMT -5 inverse said:

May 29, 2019 0:01:42 GMT -5 dynamac said:

Back at the Barnyard is a triumph of the cinematic art form and it's slander shall not be tolerated

Shaun The Sheep is obviously the better farm animals show my guy

Late but correct haha

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Thanks to oldbloke@UKMix:

CHART YEAR: BILLBOARD 200 WEEK 28

Rank TITLE Artist Est. EAS
1 A STAR IS BORN (OST) Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper 1,257,000
2 THANK U NEXT Ariana Grande 1,251,000
3 CHAMPIONSHIPS Meek Mill 1,114,000
4 BEERBONGS AND BENTLEYS Post Malone 968,000
5 ASTROWORLD Travis Scott 960,000
6 SCORPION Drake 953,000
7 BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (OST) Queen 902,000
8 WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP WHERE DO WE GO Billie Eilish 894,000
9 HOODIE SZN A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie 875,000
10 THE GREATEST SHOWMAN Soundtrack 761,000
11 I AM > I WAS 21 Savage 741,000
12 SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE Soundtrack 726,000
13 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU Luke Combs 689,000
14 GOODBYE AND GOOD RIDDANCE Juice WRLD 659,000
15 DRIP HARDER Lil Baby & Gunna 633,000
16 INVASION OF PRIVACY Cardi B 611,000
17 DONT SMILE AT ME Billie Eilish 596,000
18 DYING TO LIVE Kodak Black 587,000
19 ? XXXTentacion 582,000
20 SWEETENER Ariana Grande 556,000
21 DEATH RACE FOR LOVE Juice WRLD 549,000
22 FREE SPIRIT Khalid 538,000
23 ORIGINS Imagine Dragons 530,000
24 STONEY Post Malone 508,000
25 THA CARTER V Lil Wayne 505,000
26 STREET GOSSIP Lil Baby 504,000
27 LOOK UP CHILD Lauren Daigle 503,000
28 DUMMY BOY 6ix9ine 482,000
29 NOT ALL HEROES WEAR CAPES Metro Boomin 474,000
30 ELLA MAI Ella Mai 471,000
31 HAMILTON: AN AMERICAN MUSICAL Original Cast 469,000
32 ÷ Ed Sheeran 468,000
33 EXPERIMENT Kane Brown 462,000
34 A LOVE LETTER TO YOU 3 Trippie Redd 453,000
35 PRAY FOR THE WICKED Panic At The Disco 451,000
36 FUTURE HNDRXX PRESENTS: THE WIZRD Future 451,000
37 X 100PRE Bad Bunny 444,000
38 DAN + SHAY Dan + Shay 442,000
39 GREATEST HITS Queen 428,000
40 AMERICAN TEEN Khalid 417,000
41 DELTA Mumford & Sons 407,000
42 KAMIKAZE Eminem 407,000
43 GREATEST HITS I II & III: THE PLATINUM COLLECTION Queen 401,000
44 MAP OF THE SOUL: PERSONA BTS 392,000
45 REALER YoungBoy Never Broke Again 370,000
46 EVOLVE Imagine Dragons 369,000
47 LOVE Michael Buble 357,000
48 TRAVELLER Chris Stapleton 357,000
49 SKINS XXXTentacion 354,000
50 TRENCH Twenty One Pilots 352,000
51 STOKELEY Ski Mask The Slump God 350,000
52 CHRISTMAS Michael Buble 344,000
53 17 XXXTentacion 343,000
54 DRIP OR DROWN 2 Gunna 342,000
55 COSMIC Bazzi 340,000
56 DAMN. Kendrick Lamar 333,000
57 REPUTATION Taylor Swift 329,000
58 QUEEN Nicki Minaj 325,000
59 DIAMONDS Elton John 323,000
60 CULTURE II Migos 321,000
61 LUV IS RAGE 2 Lil Uzi Vert 316,000
62 SHAWN MENDES Shawn Mendes 316,000
63 SUNCITY Khalid 315,000
64 HARDER THAN EVER Lil Baby 315,000
65 FATHER OF 4 Offset 312,000
66 VICTORY LAP Nipsey Hussle 312,000
67 SWIMMING Mac Miller 309,000
68 KANE BROWN Kane Brown 297,000
69 LOVE ME NOW Tory Lanez 297,000
70 TAKE CARE Drake 296,000
71 VIEWS Drake 294,000
72 CURTAIN CALL: THE HITS Eminem 294,000
73 LEGEND Bob Marley & the Wailers 293,000
74 GOLDEN HOUR Kacey Musgraves 290,000
75 H.E.R. H.E.R. 290,000
76 DNA Backstreet Boys 285,000
77 REARVIEW TOWN Jason Aldean 285,000
78 GREATEST HITS Journey 283,000
79 EVIL GENIUS Gucci Mane 281,000
80 LOVE YOURSELF: ANSWER BTS 279,000
81 CAMILA Camila Cabello 278,000
82 RED PILL BLUES Maroon 5 278,000
83 I AM YOU YNW Melly 277,000
84 PRESENT...WRLD ON DRUGS Future & Juice WRLD 275,000
85 MORE LIFE Drake 271,000
86 BABY ON BABY DaBaby 270,000
87 KOD J Cole 269,000
88 CHRONICLE:THE 20 GREATEST HITS Creedence Clearwater Revival 267,000
89 PERCEPTION NF 265,000
90 LIFE CHANGES Thomas Rhett 264,000
91 MOANA Soundtrack 264,000
92 LUCA BRASI 3 Kevin Gates 263,000
93 FRIENDS KEEP SECRETS (EP) Benny Blanco 262,000
94 2014 FOREST HILLS DRIVE J Cole 260,000
95 RUMOURS Fleetwood Mac 259,000
96 EXPECTATIONS Bebe Rexha 259,000
97 YOUNGBLOOD 5 Seconds Of Summer 257,000
98 UNTIL DEATH CALL MY NAME YoungBoy Never Broke Again 255,000
99 CTRL SZA 253,000
100 CHRISTMAS IS HERE Pentatonix 251,000
101 STARBOY The Weeknd 251,000
102 NIGHT VISIONS Imagine Dragons 251,000
103 THE ESSENTIAL Michael Jackson 247,000
104 24K MAGIC Bruno Mars 246,000
105 WE ALL SHINE YNW Melly 239,000
106 X Ed Sheeran 238,000
107 GREATEST HITS 2Pac 235,000
108 LIFE'S A TRIP Trippie Redd 234,000
109 FEED THE STREETS II Roddy Ricch 232,000
110 CRY PRETTY Carrie Underwood 231,000
111 NORTHSBEST Lil Mosey 231,000
112 BLACK PANTHER: THE ALBUM Soundtrack 230,000
113 BAD HABITS NAV 228,000
114 THE BEATLES (WHITE ALBUM) Beatles 228,000
115 THE ESSENTIAL Billy Joel 223,000
116 BLURRYFACE Twenty One Pilots 223,000
117 BRETT YOUNG Brett Young 221,000
118 4RESPECT 4FREEDOM 4LOYALTY 4WHATIMPORTANT YoungBoy Never Broke Again 220,000
119 GOOD KID M.A.A.D CITY Kendrick Lamar 220,000
120 HOPELESS FOUNTAIN KINGDOM Halsey 219,000
121 BIRDS IN THE TRAP SING MCKNIGHT Travis Scott 219,000
122 AURA Ozuna 217,000
123 1989 Taylor Swift 216,000
124 BALLADS 1 Joji 214,000
125 ABBEY ROAD Beatles 213,000
126 BEAUTY BEHIND THE MADNESS The Weeknd 212,000
127 CAN'T SAY I AIN'T COUNTRY Florida Georgia Line 212,000
128 THRILLER Michael Jackson 210,000
129 LIFE OF A DARK ROSE Lil Skies 208,000
130 GREATEST HITS Bob Seger & 6he Silver Bullet Band 208,000
131 MUDBOY Sheck Wes 208,000
132 MERRY CHRISTMAS Mariah Carey 208,000
133 ANTI Rihanna 207,000
134 FANOUS CRYP Blueface 207,000
135 QUAVO HUNCHO Quavo 205,000
136 DANGEROUS WOMAN Ariana Grande 201,000
137 A PENTATONIX CHRISTMAS Pentatonix 200,000
138 SIGNED TO THE STREETS 3 Lil Durk 198,000
139 HEARTBREAK ON A FULL MOON Chris Brown 198,000
140 LAST DAY OF SUMMER Summer Walker 196,000
141 SHELBY Lil Skies 195,000
142 COME OVER WHEN YOU'RE SOBER PART 2 Lil Peep 195,000
143 METALLICA Metallica 192,000
144 IN THE LONELY HOUR Sam Smith 192,000
145 HURTS 2B HUMAN P!nk 190,000
146 DUA LIPA Dua Lipa 189,000
147 WASTELAND BABY Hozier 187,000
148 GIRL CODE City Girls 183,000
149 GREATEST HITS Notorious B.I.G. 182,000
150 GIRL Maren Morris 182,000
151 EAST ATLANTA LOVE LETTER 6LACK 179,000
152 THE CHRISTMAS SONG Nat King Cole 179,000
153 BACK IN BLACK AC/DC 178,000
154 THEIR GREATEST HITS 1971-1975 Eagles 178,000
155 1 Beatles 178,000
156 NEVERMIND Nirvana 177,000
157 21 Adele 175,000
158 FREUDIAN Daniel Caesar 174,000
159 CALIFORNIA SUNRISE Jon Pardi 171,000
160 RAP OR GO TO THE LEAGUE 2 Chainz 171,000
161 FORTNITE EXTENDED SET Marshmello 169,000
162 FATHER OF THE BRIDE Vampire Weekend 168,000
163 DIE LIT Playboi Carti 168,000
164 THE GREATEST SHOWMAN: REIMAGINED Various 165,000
165 NOTHING WAS THE SAME Drake 165,000
166 IGOR Tyler The Creator 165,000
167 A CHARLIE BROWN CHRISTMAS Vince Guaraldi 165,000
168 GREATEST HITS Guns N'Roses 160,000
169 GREATEST HITS SO FAR... Zac Brown Band 157,000
170 50 NUMBER ONES George Strait 156,000
171 CRASH TALK ScHoolboy Q 154,000
172 GREATEST HITS Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers 152,000
173 IF I KNOW ME Morgan Wallen 148,000
174 HOMECOMING: THE LIVE ALBUM Beyonce 146,000
175 13 REASONS WHY SEASON 2: A NETFLIX ORIGINAL SERIES Soundtrack 146,000
176 WHILE WE WAIT Kehlani 146,000
177 T R A P S O U L Bryson Tiller 146,000
178 THE WORLD IS YOURS 2 Rich The Kid 145,000
179 DOO-WOPS AND HOOLIGANS Bruno Mars 144,000
180 DEATH OF A BACHELOR Panic At The Disco 140,000
181 FATHER OF ASAHD DJ Khaled 137,000
182 TICKET TO L.A. Brett Young 136,000
183 FROM A ROOM: VOLUME 1 Chris Stapleton 135,000
184 A DECADE OF DESTRUCTION Five Finger Death Punch 134,000
185 THE BEST OF EVERYTHING: THE DEFINITIVE CAREER SPANNING HITS COLLECTION Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers 133,000
186 CUZ I LOVE YOU Lizzo 133,000
187 GREATEST HITS Red Hot Chili Peppers 132,000
188 DRIP SEASON 3 Gunna 132,000
189 ULTIMATE CHRISTMAS Frank Sinatra 132,000
190 PEOPLE Hillsong United 132,000
191 BLONDE Frank Ocean 130,000
192 HONKY TONK TIME MACHINE George Strait 129,000
193 ANTHEM OF THE PEACEFUL ARMY Greta Van Fleet 129,000
194 PROJECT BABY TWO Kodak Black 128,000
195 SICK BOY (EP) Chainsmokers 126,000
196 A LEGENDARY CHRISTMAS John Legend 126,000
197 THE DIRT (OST) Motley Crue 121,000
198 THE CLASSIC CHRISTMAS ALBUM Perry Como 119,000
199 NOEL Josh Groban 118,000
200 THE BEST OF-20TH CENTURY MASTERS CHRISTMAS COLLECTION Bing Crosby 117,000

[tanooki]

143 METALLICA Metallica 192,000

Classic

[inverse]

Wait I'm confused is the number 143 some sort of reference

[rockgolf]

May 31, 2019 18:00:11 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

^What he said. If I had to predict from this moment what the YE Top 10 is gonna look like I'm gonna say

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Wow.
5. 7 Rings
6. Bad Guy
7. Happier
8. Sucker
9. thank u, next
10. SICKO MODE

I agree with this largely. No songs released later will be able to get close to the year-end top ten. There aren’t enough weeks left and Old Town Road is going to hog the #1 spot for at least the next two months.

[fhas]

Jun 1, 2019 8:13:45 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

May 31, 2019 18:00:11 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

^What he said. If I had to predict from this moment what the YE Top 10 is gonna look like I'm gonna say

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Wow.
5. 7 Rings
6. Bad Guy
7. Happier
8. Sucker
9. thank u, next
10. SICKO MODE

I agree with this largely. No songs released later will be able to get close to the year-end top ten. There aren’t enough weeks left and Old Town Road is going to hog the #1 spot for at least the next two months.

Last year, In My Feelings (released on June 29) was #9 despite charting for only 20 weeks.

In 2016, Closer (released on July 29) was #10 with 15 weeks on the chart.

[fhas]

May 31, 2019 20:52:18 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Thanks to oldbloke@UKMix:

CHART YEAR: BILLBOARD 200 WEEK 28

Rank TITLE Artist Est. EAS
3 CHAMPIONSHIPS Meek Mill 1,114,000
What a huge surprise! I didn't realize that Meek's album was that big.

4 BEERBONGS AND BENTLEYS Post Malone 968,000
5 ASTROWORLD Travis Scott 960,000
6 SCORPION Drake 953,000
The golden trio.

[jodakyellow]

May 31, 2019 23:47:34 GMT -5 inverse said:

Wait I'm confused is the number 143 some sort of reference

I think he’s just saying it’s a classic album and he’s happy to see it in the chart after all these years?

Someone correct me if I’m wrong

[rockgolf]

Jun 1, 2019 8:20:25 GMT -5 fhas said:

Last year, In My Feelings (released on June 29) was #9 despite charting for only 20 weeks.

In 2016, Closer (released on July 29) was #10 with 15 weeks on the chart.

Except for Thank U, Next, every song in the top ten is still in the chart. GLY will drop out next week. But the others will still keep padding their leads. I'd love to see a new song come along and have that kind of impact, but it would have to be another left field hit like Old Town Road, and things like that happen maybe once in ten years.

[rockgolf]

My estimated top songs of the year inclusive of the June 1, 2019 chart:

I've added a column at the end showing each song's position on the Hot 100 this week.

Sunflower keeps gaining on Without Me, but I don't think it's going to catch up, there's just too much of a gap.

Old Town Road didn't go far this week, but if it stays #1 for as few as eight more weeks (which given its steady mammoth lead is entirely possible), it will be in top 3 territory. I have little doubt it will end up the #1 song of the year. There's an old joke that the only way a hugely successful politician could lose their lead would be if they were found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy. Given how even murder charges haven't hurt certain chart performances this year, even that won't stop Lil Nas X. He's held better than 2-to-1 leads against debuts by Swift, Sheeran and Bieber. This will be the summer of Old Town Road.

Probably the autumn too.

[spicymapping]

it’s been a year america who the hell still cares about the greatest showman enough to keep it in the top ten of the year

[mikerivera]

June 1, 2019 YE Projections (27/52) 

Last week’s year end projections.
Locked: Pure Water, Close Friends
Striking distance: Bad Guy
Getting close: Me, Act Up, Put a Date On It, Who Do You Love

In the top 10, Happier passes Thank U Next, and Old Town Road jumps Sicko Mode, High Hopes and 7 Rings

On: Suge, God’s Country
Off: Down to the Honkeytonk, You

Fell off this week: Thank U, Next, Drip Too Hard, Be Alright, Baby Shark, Mixed Personalities, Make it Sweet
Projected spots
Thank U, Next: #12
Drip Too Hard: #24
Be Alright: #53
Baby Shark: #70
Mixed Personalities: will miss year end
Make it Sweet: will miss year end

1. Without Me-Halsey (+4,465) =
2. Sunflower-Post Malone & Swae Lee (+4,253) =
3. Happier*-Marshmello & Bastille (+3,559) +1
4. Thank U, Next-Ariana Grande (3,553) -1
5. Old Town Road-Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus (+3,460.75) +3
6. Sicko Mode*-Travis Scott (+3,455.5) -1
7. High Hopes-Panic! At the Disco (+3,274) -1
8. 7 Rings-Ariana Grande (+3,271) -1
9. Wow-Post Malone (+2,879) =
10. Eastside*-Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid (+2,737.5) =
11. Girls Like You*-Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B (+2,610) =
12. Shallow-Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper (+2,466) +1
13. Going Bad-Meek Mill ft. Drake (+2,434.5) +1
14. Drip Too Hard-Lil Baby & Gunna (2,405.5) -2
15. Better-Khalid (+2,210) =
16. Middle Child-J. Cole (+2,061) =
17. Better Now*-Post Malone (1,897.5) =
18. Sweet but Psycho-Ava Max (+1,888.75) +3
19. Zeze-Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset (1,882.5) -1
20. YoungBlood*-5 Seconds of Summer (1,876) -1
21. Money-Cardi B (1,854) -1
22. Dancing with a Stranger-Sam Smith & Normani (+1,783.5) +2
23. A Lot-21 Savage (+1,771) -1
24. Mía-Bad Bunny ft. Drake (1,696) -1
25. Thotiana-Blueface (+1,650) +1
26. Sucker-Jonas Brothers (+1,634) +6
27. Be Alright-Dean Lewis (1,631.25) -2
28. Break Up With your Girlfriend, I’m Bored-Ariana Grande (+1,628) =
29. Please Me-Cardi B & Bruno Mars (+1,618.5) =
30. Beautiful Crazy-Luke Combs (+1,592.75) =
31. Close to Me-Ellie Goulding & Diplo ft. Swae Lee (1,556.25) -4
32. You Say-Lauren Daigle (1,527.5) -1
33. Lucid Dreams*-Juice WRLD (1,487) =
34. Wake Up in the Sky-Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black (1,461.5) =
35. Mo Bamba-Sheck Wes (1,458.5) =
36. Look Back at It-A Boogie wit da Hoodie (+1,407.5) +1
37. Taki Taki-DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B (1,406) -1
38. Envy Me-Calboy (+1,338.75) =
39. Murder on my Mind-YNW Melly (+1,285.25) =
40. Talk-Khalid (+1,240.5) +4
41. Baby Shark-Pinkfong (1,228.75) -1
42. I Like It*-Cardi B, J Balvin & Bad Bunny (1,226.5) -1
43. Leave Me Alone-Flipp Dinero (1,209) -1
44. When the Party’s Over-Billie Eilish (+1,138.5) +2
45. Swervin-A Boogie wit da Hoodie ft. 6ix9ine (1,111.75) -2
46. Breathin-Ariana Grande (1,100) -1
47. Bury a Friend-Billie Eilish (+1,063) =
48. Pure Water-Mustard & Migos (+1,050.5) =
49. Close Friends-Lil Baby (+1,024) =
50. Bad Guy-Billie Eilish (+965) +6
51. Trip*-Ella Mai (950) -1
52. Tequila*-Dan+Shay (912) -1
53. Love Lies*-Khalid & Normani (888.5) -1
54. This is It-Scotty McCreery (864.5) -1
55. Here Tonight-Brett Young (+845.75) +3
56. Girl Like You-Jason Aldean (837.5) -2
57. Speechless-Dan+Shay (830) -2
58. Beautiful-Bazzi ft. Camila Cabello (823) -1
59. Con Calma-Daddy Yankee & Katy Perry ft. Snow (+820) +2
60. Robbery-Juice WRLD (+768) +2
61. Mixed Personalities-YNW Melly ft. Kanye West (765.75) -2
62. Me!-Taylor Swift ft. Brendon Urie (+761) +15
63. Backin It Up-Pardison Fontaine ft. Cardi B (747.25) -3
64. Act Up-City Girls (+725.75) +11
65. Make it Sweet-Old Dominion (723.25) -2
66. Who Do You Love-The Chainsmokers ft. 5 Seconds of Summer (+708.25) -4
67. Calling My Spirit-Kodak Black (705.75) -3
68. Put a Date on It-Yo Gotti ft. Lil Baby (+704.25) +5
69. Uproar-Lil Wayne (698.75) -4
70. Natural*-Imagine Dragons (698) -4
71. Eyes on You-Chase Rice (+694.75) +5
72. Armed & Dangerous-Juice WRLD (691.5) -5
73. Ella Quiere Beber-Anuel AA & Romeo Santos (679.25) -5
74. This Feeling-The Chainsmokers & Kelsea Ballerini (669.5) -5
75. Miss Me More-Kelsea Ballerini (+666.5) -4
76. Twerk-City Girls ft. Cardi B (665.5) -5
77. Pure Cocaine-Lil Baby (660.75) -5
78. Millionaire-Chris Stapleton (658) -4
79. Worth It-YK Oriris (+652) +2
80. Whiskey Glasses-Morgan Wallen (+644.75) +7
81. Good as You-Kane Brown (+643.25) +5
82. Sixteen-Thomas Rhett (629) -4
83. Here With Me-Marshmello ft. CHVRCHES (+621.25) +9
84. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart-Mark Ronson ft. Miley Cyrus (607) -4
85. Shot Clock-Ella Mai (604.24) -3
86. Lovely-Billie Eilish & Khalid (599.5) -3
87. Burning Man-Dierks Bentley ft. Brothers Osborne (585) -3
88. Arms Around You-XXXTENTACION & Lil Pump ft. Maluma & Swae Lee (584.5) -3
89. Look What God Gave Her-Thomas Rhett (+576.75) +6
90. Take it From Me-Jordan Davis (566.75) -2
91. Best Shot-Jimmie Allen (566.5) -2
92. Good Girl-Dustin Lynch (564.5) -2
93. Undecided-Chris Brown (563.5) -2
94. Girls Need Love-Summer Walker & Drake (+561.75) =
95. Walk Me Home-P!nk (+530.75) +4
96. Night Shift-Jon Pardi (+530.5) +1
97. She Got the Best of Me-Luke Combs (530) -4
98. Suge-DaBaby (+529) NEW
99. Talk to Me-Tory Lanez & Rich the Kid (503.5) -3
100. God’s Country-Blake Shelton (+503) NEW

[kierz7]

Jun 1, 2019 9:29:00 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Jun 1, 2019 8:20:25 GMT -5 fhas said:

Last year, In My Feelings (released on June 29) was #9 despite charting for only 20 weeks.

In 2016, Closer (released on July 29) was #10 with 15 weeks on the chart.

Except for Thank U, Next, every song in the top ten is still in the chart. GLY will drop out next week. But the others will still keep padding their leads. I'd love to see a new song come along and have that kind of impact, but it would have to be another left field hit like Old Town Road, and things like that happen maybe once in ten years.

Huh?

It’s very possible.

-Rihanna has YET to release her lead single.
-Adele has YET to release her lead single.
-Taylor Swift has YET to release a 2nd single(who knows how that may perform.
-An A-List Rapper could randomly release a song/collab. soon and have it become a hit (ie. Drake, 21 Savage, Travis Scott...)
etc.

Like...

All of the above have the chance to chart in the year end top ten should they release a song between now and late-August and have it be a smash hit.

[spicymapping]

Jun 1, 2019 17:41:34 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Jun 1, 2019 9:29:00 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Except for Thank U, Next, every song in the top ten is still in the chart. GLY will drop out next week. But the others will still keep padding their leads. I'd love to see a new song come along and have that kind of impact, but it would have to be another left field hit like Old Town Road, and things like that happen maybe once in ten years.

between now and late-August 

Okay for a song released soon it's possible but late august? Even if every week from its release on out was spent at #1 it wouldn't even be top 10 if all of those weeks were average #1 weeks.

[kierz7]

Jun 1, 2019 18:11:07 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Jun 1, 2019 17:41:34 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

between now and late-August 

Okay for a song released soon it's possible but late august? Even if every week from its release on out was spent at #1 it wouldn't even be top 10 if all of those weeks were average #1 weeks.

The Y/E tracking ends on the last week of November.

If a song were to debut at #1 the first week of September and remain at number one for ten weeks until mid-November it could EASILY make the Y/E top ten overall. No?

If that same song were to peak at #1 in early September and stay atop the charts for only five weeks yet remain in the top ten until the last tracking week in November it could also make the Y/E top ten. No?

I know the charts move at a different pace today but didn't Kanye West's "Golddigger" hit #1 in mid-September, finally dethroning "We Belong Together", and stay there for 10 weeks and peak at #6 on the Y/E charts in 2005?

[brady47]

Katy Perry's "Roar" was also released in late August and hit #10 on the 2013 year end (with 15 weeks)

[rockgolf]

Different era. Songs move much slower on the charts now.

[spicymapping]

Jun 1, 2019 19:25:43 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Jun 1, 2019 18:11:07 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Okay for a song released soon it's possible but late august? Even if every week from its release on out was spent at #1 it wouldn't even be top 10 if all of those weeks were average #1 weeks.

The Y/E tracking ends on the last week of November.

If a song were to debut at #1 the first week of September and remain at number one for ten weeks until mid-November it could EASILY make the Y/E top ten overall. No?

If that same song were to peak at #1 in early September and stay atop the charts for only five weeks yet remain in the top ten until the last tracking week in November it could also make the Y/E top ten. No?

I know the charts move at a different pace today but didn't Kanye West's "Golddigger" hit #1 in mid-September, finally dethroning "We Belong Together", and stay there for 10 weeks and peak at #6 on the Y/E charts in 2005?

Gold Digger did, but we aren't talking about when they hit #1, we're talking about release, which gold digger was released early July. Ten Weeks at #1 alone is nowhere near enough points to go top 10. IMF barely made top 10 with 11 weeks at #1 and even more weeks in the top 10. If we're comparing to 2018, a song with about equal points to 10 weeks at #1 is look alive - which didn't even make top 20.

[fhas]

June 1, 2019 - 28/52 weeks (53.85%)
Based on chart performance on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart dated Nov. 24, 2018, to Nov. 16, 2019.

Locked last week:
---> Pure Water (Mustard & Migos)

Locked this week:
---> bad guy (Billie Eilish)

Added this week:
---> Con Calma (Daddy Yankee & Katy Perry feat. Snow --- #59 this week)
---> ME! (Taylor Swift feat. Brendon Urie --- #64 this week)
---> Robbery (Juice WRLD --- #65 this week)

Estimated Cutoff ---> 180,000 points (margin of error: 7% --- 167,400-192,600)
*I think the song at #100 will be around 180k points, but it's possible that it finishes with 167.4k-192.6k

SPOILER: Click to show

{ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (CLICK HERE TO SHOW):
Billboard year starts on Dec. 1 and the Nov. 24 chart is not counted}

[fhas]

SPOILER: Click to show

{LAST YEAR - TOP 10 - AFTER 28 WEEKS (CLICK HERE TO SHOW)}

[samo🦕]

[inverse]

Jun 1, 2019 20:46:40 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Different era. Songs move much slower on the charts now.

What? This is in no way a different era from 2016 and 2018 or really 2013 either. If Drake were to drop another leadoff single in July it would probably pretty easily make the year end top 10. What we never think about is that there's still another 24 weeks at #1 that haven't happened yet, if one song (other than OTR) can get like seven or eight of them it could probably finish top 10