mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 1, 2019 2:19:02 GMT -5
Post Malone songs typically arent huge smashes on release, they take a few weeks to grow. If Ed/Justin couldn't do it, I dont think Ed/Bruno will be much different. I highly disagree. Ed/Justin failed while OTR was at the peak of its run. By the time BLOW is released, OTR will be much weaker, and given that Blow will be dropping with the rest of the album, I could see it getting enough hype to overpower Lil Nas X |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2019 3:06:46 GMT -5
Based on everyone's predictions, I'm going to assume Tequila is the most likely candidate for #100 (RIP Love Lies unless November 24th counts).
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jul 1, 2019 11:38:27 GMT -5
Question for Mikesmusicreviews I know in the long run it probably doesn't matter but how many points do you have for All I Want For Christmas Is You? Most everyone else has it somewhere on the top 100 still and so I'm wondering if you just removed or accidentally forgot it.
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 1, 2019 12:44:18 GMT -5
I still don't get the argument for why nov 24th wouldn't count. I get billboard has their own weird things but honestly I feel like they probably just shifted to a system of 52 weeks per year period without telling anyone.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 1, 2019 17:41:45 GMT -5
I still don't get the argument for why nov 24th wouldn't count. I get billboard has their own weird things but honestly I feel like they probably just shifted to a system of 52 weeks per year period without telling anyone. My argument for excluding Nov 24: 1) That chart covers actual activity dating back a further 7 to 10 days which means sales, streams and airplay from mid-November 2018 would be counted in 2019, and that’s just too far back. 2) If the Nov 30, 2019 chart is included, that would mean 54 charts were included in the 2019 year end. 3) Traditionally, the Billboard year begins about December 1. |
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 1, 2019 18:39:39 GMT -5
Question for Mikesmusicreviews I know in the long run it probably doesn't matter but how many points do you have for All I Want For Christmas Is You? Most everyone else has it somewhere on the top 100 still and so I'm wondering if you just removed or accidentally forgot it. It had 695 points. I don’t include Christmas songs because I feel like they’re just hogging up a spot of a song that actually came out this year and spent it’s chart run in this year. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2019 6:22:37 GMT -5
Add "The Git Up" to the list of country songs that might make the 2019 year end list.
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 2, 2019 9:43:11 GMT -5
Robbery is now the first song in the might-make-it-but-probably-not group. With that said....
TL, DR:
Locked: God's Country, If I Can't Have You
Added: Truth Hurts, Hey Look Ma, I Made It
1. Without Me (=)
2. Sunflower (=)
3. Happier (=)
4. 7 Rings (=)
5. SICKO MODE (+1)
6. thank u, next (-1)
Predicted Top 10 Cutoff - 7000
7. Wow. (+1)
8. High Hopes (-1)
9. Old Town Road (=)
10. Eastside (=)
11. Shallow (=)
12. Girls Like You (=)
13. Sucker (+1)
14. Going Bad (-1)
15. Drip Too Hard (=)
16. Better (=)
17. MIDDLE CHILD (=)
18. Dancing With a Stranger (=)
19. Sweet But Psycho (=)
20. Talk (+2)
21. Bad Guy (+4)
22. ZEZE (-2)
23. Please Me (=)
24. Better Now (-3)
25. Youngblood (-1)
26. Break Up With Your Girlfriend (+1)
27. Money (-1)
Predicted Top 50 Cutoff - 3000
28. a lot (=)
29. MIA (=)
30. Thotiana (=)
31. Beautiful Crazy (=)
32. Lucid Dreams (=)
33. Mo Bamba (=)
34. Look Back At It (+1)
35. Wake Up In The Sky (-1)
36. Be Alright (=)
37. Close To Me (=)
38. Taki Taki (=)
39. You Say (=)
40. Envy Me (=)
41. Pure Water (+1)
42. When The Party's Over (-1)
43. Murder On My Mind (=)
44. I Don't Care (+5)
45. I Like It (-1)
46. Leave Me Alone (-1)
47. Breathin (-1)
48. ME! (+2)
49. Con Calma (+3)
50. Suge (+4)
51. Close Friends (-4)
52. Bury A Friend (-4)
53. Baby Shark (-2)
54. Speechless (-1)
55. Whiskey Glasses (+4)
56. Act Up (+2)
57. Trip (-2)
58. Swervin (-2)
59. Tequila (-2)
60. If I Can't Have You (+4)
61. God's Country (+2)
62. Love Lies (-2)
Predicted Cutoff - 1500
63. Pop Out (+9) WA: 1
64. Robbery (-3)
65. Beautiful (-3)
66. Good As You (+1) WA: 2, WL: 2
67. Eyes On You (+1) WA: 3, WL: 1
68. Look What God Gave Her (+5) WA: 3, WL: 3
69. Here Tonight (-4)
70. All I Want For Christmas Is You (-4)
71. Worth It (+3) WA: 3, WL: 1
72. This Is It (-3)
73. Miss Me More (-3)
74. Put a Date On It (-3)
75. Rumor (+9) WA: 2
76. Natural (-1)
77. Here With Me (+2) WA: 5, WL: 4
78. Mixed Personalities (-2)
79. Girl Like You (-2)
80. Backin It Up (-2)
81. Armed And Dangerous (-1)
82. Uproar (-1)
83. Girls Need Love (+3) WA: 6, WL: 2
84. Make It Sweet (-2)
85. Walk Me Home (+2) WA: 5, WL: 3
86. Ella Quiere Beber (-3)
87. Who Do You Love (-2)
88. Calling My Spirit (=)
89. This Feeling (=)
90. Talk You Out of It (+4) WA: 8, WL: 1
91. GIRL (+4) WA: 7, WL: 3
92. Truth Hurts (NEW) WA: 3
93. Millionaire (-3)
94. Twerk (-3)
95. Sixteen (-3)
96. Arms Around You (-3)
Tracking Cutoff - 1000
97. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (NEW) WA: 4
98. Pure Cocaine (-2)
99. Burning Man (-2)
100. Best Shot (-2)
That Said, this is for 1 of 5 possible scenarios. I'll outline everything that I think billboard might do:
Nov 24-Nov 16: Billboard decides to switch to a strict 52 weeks-a-year system
Nov 24-Nov 23: 24th is added back and everyone celebrates with a nice simple 53 week year. 2020 goes to 53 as well and everyone moves on.
Nov 24-Nov 30: Billboard does not give a f**k about year lengths so they just add 24th to the original year and move on as if nothing happened.
Dec 1-Nov 23: No real reason for it but I guess it's technically possible as a compromise.
Dec 1-Nov 30: What was assumed before the fiasco. Either we f**ked up and 24th was in last year or billboard f**ked up and decided to leave out 24th anyways.
My predictions function around scenario 2 but I will upload the full 100 for all 5 scenarios come year end.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 2, 2019 12:10:44 GMT -5
Inclusive of the July 6, 2019 chart published today, here's how I guees the year-end Top 100 will look:
Old Town Road makes a major jump in the top ten, and is likely to reach the top 3 within the next week or two. It'll have to settle there for a few weeks before making it's final attack on its virtually inevitable #1 position. Sucker, Talk & Bad Guy also look top ten bound, eventually.
Wild ass guess: #100 for the year will be Kane Brown's Good As You.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jul 2, 2019 12:19:19 GMT -5
Something interesting is that as of now there's no real clear standout for what's gonna be the top song to have not peaked in the top 10. At this time last two years Say You Won't Let Go and Mine were pretty much locked in for that achievement but this year as of now it's a fight between Youngblood and Money, both of which are totally overtakeable but I'm not sure by what. Pop Out maybe. Better and Sweet But Psycho were so close lol
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Post by reputainbow on Jul 2, 2019 13:54:36 GMT -5
{Top 100}[] = 2019 Peak | Locked | Nearing/Most Likely | Slight Chance (for those not charting) | Currently Charting | Recurrent/Not Charting
1(=) Without Me (Halsey) 4872 [1] (+344)
2(=) Sunflower (Post Malone/Swae Lee) 4782 [1] (+439)
3(+1) Happier (Marshmello/Bastille) 3875 [2] (+323)
4(+1) 7 rings (Ariana Grande) 3849 [1] (+333)
5(+1) Sicko Mode (Travis Scott) 3693 [1] (+244)
6(-3) thank u, next (Ariana Grande) 3589 [1]
7(+1) Wow. (Post Malone) 3552 [2] (+500)
8(+1) Old Town Road (Lil Nas X/Billy Ray Cyrus) 3473 [1] (+1000)
9(-2) High Hopes (Panic! at the Disco) 3450 [4] (+305)
10(+2) Eastside (Benny Blanco/Halsey/Khalid) 2718 [9] (+285)
11(=) Shallow (Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper) 2712 [1] (+246)
12(+5) Sucker (Jonas Brothers) 2560 [1] (+590)
13(+1) Going Bad (Meek Mill/Drake) 2515 [6] (+269)
14(-4) Girls Like You (Maroon 5/Cardi B) 2472 [7]
15(=) Better (Khalid) 2416 [8] (+256)
16(-3) Drip Too Hard (Lil Baby/Yung Gunna) 2310 [8]
17(-1) MIDDLE CHILD (J. Cole) 2273 [4] (+288)
18(=) Dancing With a Stranger (Sam Smith/Normani) 2231 [7] (+385)
19(+2) Sweet But Psycho (Ava Max) 2122 [10] (+352)
20(+16) Talk (Khalid) 2011 [3] (+660)
21(+4) Please Me (Cardi B/Bruno Mars) 1882 [3] (+189)
22(+20) Bad Guy (Billie Eilish) 1870 [2] (+700)
23(-4) ZEZE (Kodak Black/Travis Scott/Offset) 1798 [7]
24(-4) Better Now (Post Malone) 1782 [10]
25(-3) Youngblood (5 Seconds of Summer) 1764 [12]
26(+4) break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored (Ariana Grande) 1731 [2] (+246)
27(+5) Look Back At It (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie) 1711 [27] (+244)
28(-5) A Lot (21 Savage) 1704 [12]
29(-5) Money (Cardi B) 1697 [13]
30(-3) Beautiful Crazy (Luke Combs) 1668 [21] (+112)
31(-5) MIA (Bad Bunny/Drake) 1623 [18]
32(-4) Be Alright (Dean Lewis) 1528 [23]
33(-4) Thotiana (Blueface) 1522 [8]
34(+5) Envy Me (Calboy) 1498 [31] (+175)
35(-4) You Say (Lauren Daigle) 1477 [29]
36(-3) Close to Me (Ellie Goulding/Diplo/Swae Lee) 1458 [24]
37(-3) Lucid Dreams (Juice WRLD) 1452 [5]
38(+7) Pure Water (Mustard/Migos) 1369 [23] (+274)
39(-4) Mo Bamba (Sheck Wes) 1363 [6]
40(-3) Taki Taki (DJ Snake/Selena Gomez/Ozuna/Cardi B) 1350 [18]
41(-3) Wake Up In the Sky (Gucci Mane/Bruno Mars/Kodak Black) 1337 [11]
42(-2) I Like It (Cardi B/Bad Bunny/J Balvin) 1211 [24]
43(-2) Baby Shark (Pinkfong) 1189 [32]
44(+2) Bury a Friend (Billie Eilish) 1176 [14] (+91)
45(-1) Murder On My Mind (YNW Melly) 1168 [14] (+32)
46(+2) When the Party's Over (Billie Eilish) 1163 [29] (+172)
47(-4) Leave Me Alone (Flipp Dinero) 1157 [20]
48(+37) I Don't Care (Ed Sheeran/Justin Bieber) 1130 [2] (+610)
49(+6) Con Calma (Daddy Yankee/Katy Perry/Snow) 1109 [22] (+293)
50(+2) Speechless (Dan + Shay) 1098 [24] (+236)
51(+23) Suge (DaBaby) 1072 [7] (+480)
52(-5) Swervin (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/6ix9ine) 1060 [38]
53(+4) Act Up (City Girls) 1054 [26] (+284)
54(+7) ME! (Taylor Swift/Brendon Urie) 1004 [2] (+333)
55(-6) Breathin (Ariana Grande) 988 [12]
56(+11) Whiskey Glasses (Morgan Wallen) 960 [17] (+314)
57(-3) Close Friends (Lil Baby) 939 [47] (+105)
58(+19) God's Country (Blake Shelton) 904 [18] (+327)
59(-9) Tequila (Dan + Shay) 898 [29]
60(-9) Trip (Ella Mai) 887 [15]
61(-8) Love Lies (Khalid/Normani) 838 [19]
62(+10) Good as You (Kane Brown) 824 [36] (+211)
63(-7) Beautiful (Bazzi/Camila Cabello) 803 [26]
64(+15) Look What God Gave Her (Thomas Rhett) 795 [32] (+242)
65(+34) If I Can't Have You (Shawn Mendes) 790 [2] (+351)
66(+9) Worth It (YK Osiris) 770 [52] (+179)
67(-2) Eyes on You (Chase Rice) 766 [38] (+107)
68(NEW) Pop Out (Polo G/Lil Tjay) 744 [11]
69(-11) All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 729 [3]
70(-11) Robbery (Juice WRLD) 727 [27] (+22)
71(=) Here With Me (Marshmello/CHVRCHES) 723 [31] (+103)
72(-12) This Is It (Scotty McCreery) 676 [42]
73(NEW) Rumor (Lee Brice) 672 [25]
74(-12) Backin' It Up (Pardison Fontaine/Cardi B) 669 [40]
75(-12) Natural (Imagine Dragons) 663 [20]
76(-12) Uproar (Lil Wayne) 662 [35]
77(-11) Girl Like You (Jason Aldean) 652 [46]
78(+16) Walk Me Home (P!nk) 637 [49] (+178)
79(+7) Miss Me More (Kelsea Ballerini) 637 [47] (+130)
80(-12) Who Do You Love (The Chainsmokers/5 Seconds of Summer) 635 [52]
81(-12) Mixed Personalities (YNW Melly/Kanye West) 632 [42]
82(-12) Here Tonight (Brett Young) 626 [42]
83(-10) Twerk (City Girls/Cardi B) 611 [29]
84(-6) Put a Date On It (Yo Gotti/Lil Baby) 605 [46] (+50)
85(NEW) Truth Hurts (Lizzo) 589 [11]
86(-10) Armed and Dangerous (Juice Wrld) 579 [53]
87(+11) Girls Need Love (Summer Walker/Drake) 576 [37] (+136)
88(NEW) Hey Look Ma, I Made It (Panic! At the Disco) 564 [24]
89(NEW) Clout (Offset/Cardi B) 556 [39]
90(-10) Best Shot (Jimmie Allen) 549 [37]
91(-10) Calling My Spirit (Kodak Black) 543 [46]
92(-10) This Feeling (The Chainsmokers/Kelsea Ballerini) 542 [50]
93(-10) She Got the Best of Me (Luke Combs) 531 [31]
94(-10) Nothing Breaks Like a Heart (Mark Ronson/Miley Cyrus) 525 [43]
95(NEW) Beer Never Broke My Heart (Luke Combs) 510 [22]
96(-9) Pure Cocaine (Lil Baby) 505 [46]
97(-9) Millionaire (Chris Stapleton) 503 [47]
98(-9) Sixteen (Thomas Rhett) 496 [42]
99(NEW) Cool (Jonas Brothers) 495 [27]
100(NEW) GIRL (Maren Morris) 489 [59]
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 2, 2019 16:58:29 GMT -5
Something interesting is that as of now there's no real clear standout for what's gonna be the top song to have not peaked in the top 10. At this time last two years Say You Won't Let Go and Mine were pretty much locked in for that achievement but this year as of now it's a fight between Youngblood and Money, both of which are totally overtakeable but I'm not sure by what. Pop Out maybe. Better and Sweet But Psycho were so close lol Youngblood peaked at #7, but in Oct 2018.
Money & A Lot are the genuine non-top 10s in contention.
Highest to peak outside the top 20: Look Back At It by A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie Outside the top 30: Envy Me by Callboy Outside the top 40 (and top 50): Worth It by YK Osiris.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jul 2, 2019 17:11:29 GMT -5
Outside Top 20 is a toss up between Look Back At It and Beautiful Crazy, we're just gonna have to wait and see. Any number of songs could show up to contend for that late in the year like with outside top10.
Close Friends technically counts for outside top 40, the highest week it got this year was at #47 and so it seems to me like even though its overall peak was higher when looking at it in the context of the 2019 year-end chart it can be considered a #47 peak
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2019 17:47:28 GMT -5
fhas do the year end chart! Lol
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 3, 2019 9:32:17 GMT -5
I kind of feel the need to note just how massive the gap is between #9 and #10. Right now it's at 1,200 points - the equivalent to 3 weeks at #1 and 6 weeks at #10, and it's only growing. Sucker's a full 10 weeks away from breaking the threshold, and it's only breaking that because tun will fall out of the top 9.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 3, 2019 10:32:42 GMT -5
 I see a very similar gap at the lower end of the top ten on my chart. There's only 135 points separating #5 from #7, but just over 1,200 points separating #7 from #11. |
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 3, 2019 12:29:50 GMT -5
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 5, 2019 1:09:12 GMT -5
So I just listened to Blow. I don’t know what I was expecting from Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars and Chris Stapleton, but a hard rock song was not it. That said, I really hope this gets pushed as a single. Rock has been so nonexistent on the charts, and I really wonder if starpower can push this song to becoming a hit. That said, I’d like to rescind my prediction about it going to number one. If that happens, it’ll just be a testament to how truly weird 2019 is.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Jul 5, 2019 3:24:08 GMT -5
Something interesting is that as of now there's no real clear standout for what's gonna be the top song to have not peaked in the top 10. At this time last two years Say You Won't Let Go and Mine were pretty much locked in for that achievement but this year as of now it's a fight between Youngblood and Money, both of which are totally overtakeable but I'm not sure by what. Pop Out maybe. Better and Sweet But Psycho were so close lol Sweet But Psycho would've been that song to do so, but fate gave her a #10 peak, so that eliminates her from the equation. My pick would be either Pop Out or Money, then either of them end up at #31 (as SYWLG was #11, then Mine was #21) |
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 5, 2019 9:01:07 GMT -5
So I just listened to Blow. I don’t know what I was expecting from Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars and Chris Stapleton, but a hard rock song was not it. That said, I really hope this gets pushed as a single. Rock has been so nonexistent on the charts, and I really wonder if starpower can push this song to becoming a hit. That said, I’d like to rescind my prediction about it going to number one. If that happens, it’ll just be a testament to how truly weird 2019 is. When I first heard about the collab it scared the hell out of me because inevitably whatever genre they chose would be out of one of their comfort zones and mess with it. I didn't expect it to be out of all of their comfort zones. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2019 1:15:25 GMT -5
Hoping Eyes On You makes year end
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 6, 2019 19:20:49 GMT -5
July 6, 2019 YE Projections (32/52)
Locked: I Don’t Care, Suge, Whiskey Glasses
Striking distance: If I Can’t Have You, God’s Country, Pop Out, Look What God Gave Her, Worth It
Getting close: none
On: Truth Hurts, Hey Look Ma I Made It, Clout
Off: Night Shift, Burning Man, Arms Around You
Fell off this week: Envy Me, When the Party’s Over, Robbery, Miss Me More
Projected spots
Envy Me: #55
When the Party’s Over: #67
Robbery: will miss the year end
Miss Me More: will miss the year end
1. Old Town Road-Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus (+5,402.75) =
2. Without Me-Halsey (+4,954) =
3. Sunflower-Post Malone & Swae Lee (+4,848) =
4. Happier*-Marshmello & Bastille (+3,989.5) =
5. Sicko Mode*-Travis Scott (+3,776.5) =
6. 7 Rings-Ariana Grande (+3,737) =
7. High Hopes-Panic! At the Disco (+3,662.5) =
8. Thank U, Next-Ariana Grande (3,553) =
9. Wow-Post Malone (+3,505) =
10. Eastside*-Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid (+3,105.5) =
11. Shallow-Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper (+2,787) =
12. Going Bad-Meek Mill ft. Drake (+2,786.5) =
13. Girls Like You*-Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B (2,610) =
14. Better-Khalid (+2,542) =
15. Middle Child-J. Cole (+2,436.5) +1
16. Drip Too Hard-Lil Baby & Gunna (2,405.5) -1
17. Sweet but Psycho-Ava Max (+2,392.75) =
18. Sucker-Jonas Brothers (+2,335) +1
19. Dancing with a Stranger-Sam Smith & Normani (+2,330.5) -1
20. Talk-Khalid (+2,035.5) +4
21. Break Up With your Girlfriend, I’m Bored-Ariana Grande (+1,959) -1
22. Better Now*-Post Malone (1,897.5) -1
23. Please Me-Cardi B & Bruno Mars (+1,894.75) +3
24. Zeze-Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset (1,882.5) -2
25. YoungBlood*-5 Seconds of Summer (1,876) -2
26. Money-Cardi B (1,854) -1
27. A Lot-21 Savage (1,823) =
28. Bad Guy-Billie Eilish (+1,778) +5
29. Beautiful Crazy-Luke Combs (1,763.25) -1
30. Look Back at It-A Boogie wit da Hoodie (+1,732) +1
31. Thotiana-Blueface (1,701.5) -2
32. Mía-Bad Bunny ft. Drake (1,696) -2
33. Be Alright-Dean Lewis (1,631.25) -1
34. Envy Me-Calboy (1,587.75) =
35. Close to Me-Ellie Goulding & Diplo ft. Swae Lee (1,556.25) =
36. You Say-Lauren Daigle (1,527.5) =
37. Lucid Dreams*-Juice WRLD (1,487) =
38. Wake Up in the Sky-Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black (1,461.5) =
39. Mo Bamba-Sheck Wes (1,458.5) =
40. Pure Water-Mustard & Migos (+1,406.5) +3
41. Taki Taki-DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B (1,406) -1
42. When the Party’s Over-Billie Eilish (1,378) -1
43. Murder on my Mind-YNW Melly (1,372.25) -1
44. Me!-Taylor Swift ft. Brendon Urie (+1,249) +5
45. Baby Shark-Pinkfong (1,228.75) -1
46. I Like It*-Cardi B, J Balvin & Bad Bunny (1,226.5) -1
47. Bury a Friend-Billie Eilish (1,211) -1
48. Leave Me Alone-Flipp Dinero (1,209) -1
49. Con Calma-Daddy Yankee & Katy Perry ft. Snow (+1,196) +1
50. Close Friends-Lil Baby (1,187.5) -2
51. Speechless-Dan+Shay (+1,127.5) +2
52. Suge-DaBaby (+1,112) +3
53. Swervin-A Boogie wit da Hoodie ft. 6ix9ine (1,111.75) -2
54. I Don’t Care-Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber (+1,105) +4
55. Breathin-Ariana Grande (1,100) -3
56. Act Up-City Girls (+1,086.25) -2
57. Whiskey Glasses-Morgan Wallen (+1,041.75) -1
58. Trip*-Ella Mai (950) -1
59. Good as You-Kane Brown (+933.75) +3
60. God’s Country-Blake Shelton (+917) +10
61. Tequila*-Dan+Shay (912) -2
62. Eyes on You-Chase Rice (+901.75) +1
63. Worth It-YK Osiris (+891.25) +4
64. Love Lies*-Khalid & Normani (888.5) -4
65. Robbery-Juice WRLD (888.25) -4
66. Look What God Gave Her-Thomas Rhett (+887.25) +3
67. Pop Out-Polo G ft. Lil Tjay (+872.25) +8
68. This is It-Scotty McCreery (864.5) -4
69. Miss Me More-Kelsea Ballerini (863) -4
70. If I Can’t Have You-Shawn Mendes (+854) +8
71. Here Tonight-Brett Young (847.25) -5
72. Girl Like You-Jason Aldean (837.5) -4
73. Rumor-Lee Brice (+829.25) +3
74. Here With Me-Marshmello ft. CHVRCHES (+823.25) =
75. Beautiful-Bazzi ft. Camila Cabello (823) -4
76. Put a Date on It-Yo Gotti ft. Lil Baby (821.75) -4
77. Mixed Personalities-YNW Melly ft. Kanye West (793) -4
78. Walk Me Home-P!nk (+774.75) +3
79. Girls Need Love-Summer Walker & Drake (+769) +1
80. Backin It Up-Pardison Fontaine ft. Cardi B (747.25) -3
81. Who Do You Love-The Chainsmokers ft. 5 Seconds of Summer (740.25) -2
82. Make it Sweet-Old Dominion (723.25) =
83. Calling My Spirit-Kodak Black (705.75) =
84. Uproar-Lil Wayne (698.75) =
85. Girl-Maren Morris (+698.25) +7
86. Natural*-Imagine Dragons (698) -1
87. Armed & Dangerous-Juice WRLD (691.5) -1
88. Ella Quiere Beber-Anuel AA & Romeo Santos (679.25) -1
89. This Feeling-The Chainsmokers & Kelsea Ballerini (669.5) -1
90. Twerk-City Girls ft. Cardi B (665.5) -1
91. Pure Cocaine-Lil Baby (660.75) -1
92. Millionaire-Chris Stapleton (658) -1
93. Talk You Out of It-Florida Georgia Line (+641.75) +3
94. Hey Look Ma, I Made It-Panic! At the Disco (+639.75) NEW
95. Truth Hurts-Lizzo (+639) NEW
96. Sixteen-Thomas Rhett (629) -3
97. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart-Mark Ronson ft. Miley Cyrus (607) -3
98. Shot Clock-Ella Mai (604.25) -3
99. Clout-Offset ft. Cardi B (+603.5) NEW
100. Lovely-Billie Eilish & Khalid (599.5) -3
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jul 7, 2019 13:44:16 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - July 6th 2019Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000  Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jul 7, 2019 13:44:52 GMT -5
Highlights of the week:
- Old Town Road (66,400 points): most points during a 13th week at #1 in the Streaming Era (2nd most points in week 12: Despacito - 59,100 points - August 12, 2017);
- Talk (118.9M audience impressions): strongest radio #1 since High Hopes' 10th week at #1 (122.9M audience - Feb. 2, 2019);
New peak in points: Talk;
13th week at #1 this decade:
- Old Town Road: 59k sales + 82.5M airplay + 88.7M streams = 66,400 points
- Despacito: 84k sales + 141.0M airplay + 49.8M streams = 59,100 points
- UpTown Funk!: 165k sales + 166.0M airplay + 16.2M streams = 52,200 points
- Old Town Road: 14.8% sales + 17.7% airplay + 67.5% streaming
- Despacito: 19.7% sales + 28.4% airplay + 51.9% streaming
- UpTown Funk!: 30.1% sales + 33.4% airplay + 36.5% streaming
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jul 7, 2019 13:46:36 GMT -5
Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - July 6, 2019
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2019 14:32:47 GMT -5
Crazy to think that, this deep into OTR's run, it would've still been #1 even with 0 airplay and sales. That 17th week is looking more and more likely.
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,095
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Post by inverse on Jul 8, 2019 1:17:44 GMT -5
Not a big deal at all but for Mike I think you made a mistake with Swervin and I Don't Care, they're in the wrong order according to how many points they have. Doesn't matter in the long run because I Don't Care is just gonna shoot up another hundred fifty points next week but thought I'd point it out just in case IDC should actually have more points or something
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T. Eddy
Charting
I post like once a month
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Post by T. Eddy on Jul 8, 2019 2:54:29 GMT -5
Month 7, June 2019:
It may be a week into July, but the current chart (July 6th) still covered the final week of June, so I suppose this still counts. My computer was fixed just in time to make and release this forecast, and the July forecast also shouldn’t be an issue. As per usual I don’t really discuss songs that are already agreed to be locked.
This prediction is based on the July 6th Hot 100.
Guaranteed to make the YE:
Suge(Up to a new peak of #7 and still gaining. At this point it’s high enough and close enough in points to be a safe bet)
Truth Hurts(Up to #11 and still making gains. While it isn’t locked yet, it should have no problem getting there soon)
God’s Country(#18 and slowly rising. I doubt this will crack the top 10, but it seems very likely to make the YE)
Pop Out(#19 and already seems have peaked, however, I still believe that it will get the points it needs to make the YE like previous high peaking yet short-lived streaming hits(Thotiana, Murder on My Mind, etc))
Likely to make the YE:
Money In the Grave(#8, and while it’s still really early in its run, I think it’s at least likely considering the history of previous Drake singles)
No Guidance(#9 and still holding in the top 10 for a 3rd week by being consistent in streaming and gaining in radio. It’s still too early to be absolutely sure, but I think it has a chance)
You Need to Calm Down(Down hard to #13 in its second week, however, it’s also making quick gains on the radio. It’s hard to tell how it will perform from here on, but I think it’s at least likely)
Hey Look Ma, I Made It(#24 and making gains on the radio. Seems likely but not guaranteed)
Never Really Over(#27 and stable, but starting to get big on radio. I’m not sure whether it’ll get huge, stay consistent enough to secure a spot in the lower half, or miss entirely)
The Git Up(#29 and rising fast. I doubt that this will be as big as OTR, but it absolutely could get into the top 10, and probably the YE)
Beer Never Broke My Heart(Down to #33 but not out. So far it’s been charting all over the top 40, and if that continues then it should have no problem securing a spot on the YE)
Might make the YE:
The London(#30 and seems to be trending downward, but it could head out slowly enough to make the YE)
EARFQUAKE(#46 and in the same situation as The London, but slightly less likely to make the YE)
Cross Me(#39, I Don’t Care is so far appearing to be the more prominent single, but Cross Me has managed to secure its own radio momentum that may or may not continue)
Shotta Flow(Up to #48 off of strong streaming gains. It’s hard to tell whether or not those will continue at this point in its run)
Good as You(Down to #58 as it starts to be rotated out, but so far it’s performed well enough to possibly sneak into the bottom of the YE if it can get a full 20 weeks)
Someone You Loved(Rising at #53 due to gains on radio. The momentum might continue, it might not, it could go either way)
Just Us(#60, so far the only DJ Khaled song that has a serious chance at the 2019 YE thanks to mild radio momentum. Right now I’m just not sure where it’ll end up just yet)
Cool(#55 and slowly climbing upwards thanks to radio gains, but with Sucker and now Only Human also on the airwaves, I doubt this will get as big as Sucker until maybe later.)
Eyes on You(#84, and while it is headed out, if it can get a full 20 weeks it'll have a small chance of getting in)
Look What God Gave Her(#54, seems to have peeked so far, but it seems to be fairly likely at this point)
Unlikely to make the YE:
Press(Up to #43 off of the video, but it will likely resume plummeting off the charts next week)
Nightmare(Down to #50, and while it’s not falling as fast as I thought it would, it’s definitely trending downwards and seems likely to miss)
Go Loko(Mostly consistent at #52, but it’s been floating around too low to be a serious contender. Not impossible, but unlikely)
Clout(#56, and so far it’s hard to tell if it’s trending up or down, but even then it’s been so far not performing well enough to seem likely for the YE)
Worth It(#59, and has been stranded in the 50’s for months now. Other songs have managed to make the YE with really low peaks in the past, but usually they do it by somehow getting past the 20-50 rule, and I’m not sure that Worth it will beat that rule.)
Walk Me Home(Down to #62 and not catching on for the radio fast enough. It might survive by getting past the 20-50 rule, but that seems unlikely)
Easier(#64. While it took awhile before Youngblood really caught on, so far Easier isn’t showing any indication that it’ll get nearly as big)
All To Myself(#67, not quite making the big gains that previous Dan + Shay singles have made, and with Speechless still lingering on the charts, I don’t see All to Myself getting nearly as big.)
Here With Me(Continuing to fall down to #87, and with new Marshmallow singles ready to chart, a comeback just seems unlikely)
Big Ole Freak(Down to #94 and seems unlikely to make a recovery)
Too Early to Tell:
Senorita(Just debuted at #2, and so far it’s hard to tell what will happen in the following weeks, but regardless, I still think it’s at least pretty likely even if previous #2 debuts have missed the YE)
Panini/Rodeo(Debuted at #16 and #22 respectively this week, and so far it’s hard to tell if either of them will get on the 2019 YE, especially since the two are pretty close, although Panini is performing slightly better so far)
Megatron(Just debuted at #20, so it’s hard to tell where it’ll go, but it’s already looking like it’ll take a hard fall next week since it’s already doing much worse on streaming)
Ran$om(Up to #51, but it’s early in its run, so I’m not sure where it will go from here)
One Thing Right(Just debuted at #57, and as it has just debuted, it’s hard to tell where it’ll go from here)
It’s You(Just leaped up to #70, but as it is only on it’s 2nd week, it’s hard to tell where it will end up)
Trampoline(Up to #77 and has been slowly building up steam, but so far it’s hard to tell if it’ll get high enough and fast enough to make the YE just yet)
Wake Up(Up to #82 thanks to some radio, so far it’s hard to tell if that momentum will continue or not)
La La Land(Yet another primarily radio song at the bottom of the charts slowly making gains, this one at #85. Too early to tell if it’ll start gaining faster or not)
Dropouts:
When the Party’s Over(Left this week, will make the YE)
Bury a Friend(Left the week of June 29th, will probably make the YE)
Homicide(Left the week of June 22nd, will miss the YE, although it will probably return next week due to the video, I still doubt it’ll make the YE)
Boy With Luv(Left the week of June 22nd, will miss the YE)
Racks in the Middle(Left once the week of June 22nd, returned for a week, then left again this week. Will miss the YE)
Earth(Left the week of June 15th, will miss the YE)
Don’t Call Me Up(Left the week of June 15th, will miss the YE)
Edit: I added Eyes on You and Look What God Gave Her since I missed them when I made the chart yesterday.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2019 3:08:09 GMT -5
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mikerivera
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2018
Posts: 1,778
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 8, 2019 3:45:49 GMT -5
Not a big deal at all but for Mike I think you made a mistake with Swervin and I Don't Care, they're in the wrong order according to how many points they have. Doesn't matter in the long run because I Don't Care is just gonna shoot up another hundred fifty points next week but thought I'd point it out just in case IDC should actually have more points or something Fixed |
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