Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- Old Town Road¹ (2.465:1 points lead over bad guy): first song with at least a 2:1 points lead for eight weeks since Whitney Houston's I Will Always Love You (9 weeks - Dec. 12, 1992-Feb. 6, 1993);
- Old Town Road² (76,100 points): most points during an eleventh week at #1 in the Streaming Era (2nd most points in week 11: Despacito - 69,100 points - July 29, 2017);
- Old Town Road³ (#1 on-demand): first song to spent 10+ weeks at #1 since rockstar's record-breaking 17 weeks atop the on-demand chart (Oct. 7, 2017-Jan. 27, 2018);
New peak in points: bad guy, Talk;

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - June 22, 2019

[livelightning]

Unless something crazy happens, top 3 will be Old Town Road, Sunflower, Without Me.

[inverse]

Question for fhas how often are you gonna post the full 100 (or 70 or however many it is now)? Also do you have Old Town Road or Without Me at #1 this week

Edit: Also how do you know the chart points for I Will Always Love You and the myriad of #2's that trailed behind it? That's really impressive to have a data set going back that far lol

[fhas]

Jun 23, 2019 22:25:35 GMT -5 inverse said:

Question for fhas how often are you gonna post the full 100 (or 70 or however many it is now)? Also do you have Old Town Road or Without Me at #1 this week

Edit: Also how do you know the chart points for I Will Always Love You and the myriad of #2's that trailed behind it? That's really impressive to have a data set going back that far lol

I don't know, I'm not really motivated. It takes me 3-4 hours to do and sometimes I just don't have the energy to calculate the points, search for chart runs and update my Excel sheet.

Old Town Road is #2 now, it just passed Sunflower on the June 22 chart and should be 2-3 weeks away from reaching #1.

I don't have the data for IWALY. It's just that Billboard has an article for when a song doubles the points of the #2 and Whitney's song is the one with the most weeks with a 2:1 lead.

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8221656/lil-nas-x-old-town-road-drake-taylor-swift-dominant-hot-100-hits

[HeyHeyHey]

Jun 12, 2019 6:03:56 GMT -5 Mylo13 💜 said:

Compared to 2016, there's wayyyy more country songs on here haha!

I just looked this up and was surprised to see only “H.O.L.Y”, “Die a Happy Man” and “Humble and Kind” on the year end chart for country songs that year. Unless I missed any that is a really low number. I wonder what the highest is for the decade, I’m sure 2016 was the lowest.

[inverse]

Jun 24, 2019 5:48:47 GMT -5 fhas said:

Jun 23, 2019 22:25:35 GMT -5 inverse said:

Question for fhas how often are you gonna post the full 100 (or 70 or however many it is now)? Also do you have Old Town Road or Without Me at #1 this week

Edit: Also how do you know the chart points for I Will Always Love You and the myriad of #2's that trailed behind it? That's really impressive to have a data set going back that far lol

I don't know, I'm not really motivated. It takes me 3-4 hours to do and sometimes I just don't have the energy to calculate the points, search for chart runs and update my Excel sheet.

Old Town Road is #2 now, it just passed Sunflower on the June 22 chart and should be 2-3 weeks away from reaching #1.

I don't have the data for IWALY. It's just that Billboard has an article for when a song doubles the points of the #2 and Whitney's song is the one with the most weeks with a 2:1 lead.

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8221656/lil-nas-x-old-town-road-drake-taylor-swift-dominant-hot-100-hits

All good man. Whatever happens I know we all appreciate all that you've done for year end predictions so far including an extremely accurate measurement last year. :)

[Mylo13 💜]

Jun 24, 2019 18:45:23 GMT -5 HeyHeyHey said:

Jun 12, 2019 6:03:56 GMT -5 Mylo13 💜 said:

Compared to 2016, there's wayyyy more country songs on here haha!

I just looked this up and was surprised to see only “H.O.L.Y”, “Die a Happy Man” and “Humble and Kind” on the year end chart for country songs that year. Unless I missed any that is a really low number. I wonder what the highest is for the decade, I’m sure 2016 was the lowest.

As far as I know they're the only ones haha. I'm not even sure what caused that tbh?

[Deleted]

Gonna list 10 songs that I think will be very borderline in making the 2019 year end list, but are still a bit too early to tell:

1) Rumor
This rose to 25 this week, so I'd say it's a pretty safe bet in making the list proper, especially if it gets to 20 weeks.

2) Good As You
This song is also pretty safe due to the fact that it's spent half of its chart run in the top 50 (a few in the top 40 as well).

3) Cool
This didn't drop that much after the album bomb faded. If it continues to slowly gain like it did before, it should make it.

4) Walk Me Home
This song has been in the 50s for a while now, and it needs to stay consistent to have a slim but possible chance for the list.

5) Worth It
Same situation as Walk Me Home. PS: If either song can dodge the recurrent rule, their chances of making it increase by a lot.

6) Clout
This song has been floating in the 40s-50s range for its entire chart run, but it could start dropping real soon and miss.

7) Girls Need Love
The only way this can make the year end list is if it pulls a Close Friends. I doubt that will happen but we'll have to see.

8) Eyes On You
If this can get to 20 weeks in total, it might just be able to sneak on the bottom of the list (same position as This Is It).

9) Here With Me
It actually didn't fall that much this week, so maybe it can hang on for 5 more weeks and make it? I don't think it really can.

10) Robbery
This lasted longer than I expected, but it still needs 2 more weeks to be somewhat safe. I don't see that happening honestly.

[spicymapping]

It's ya boi bacc at it again

TL, DR:
Locked: Act Up, Whiskey Glasses
Added: GIRL

1. Without Me (=)
2. Sunflower (=)
3. Happier (=)
4. 7 Rings (+1)
5. thank u, next (-1)
6. SICKO MODE (=)

Top 10 Cutoff - 7000

7. High Hopes (=)
8. Wow. (=)
9. Old Town Road (=)
10. Eastside (=)
11. Shallow (+1)
12. Girls Like You (-1)
13. Going Bad (=)
14. Sucker (+1)
15. Drip Too Hard (-1)
16. Better (=)
17. MIDDLE CHILD (=)
18. Dancing With a Stranger (=)
19. Sweet But Psycho (=)
20. ZEZE (=)
21. Better Now (=)
22. Talk (+3)
23. Please Me (=)
24. Youngblood (-2)
25. Bad Guy (+4)
26. Money (-2)
27. break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored (-1)

Top 50 Cutoff - 3000

28. a lot (-1)
29. MIA (-1)
30. Thotiana (=)
31. Beautiful Crazy (=)
32. Lucid Dreams (=)
33. Mo Bamba (=)
34. Wake Up In The Sky (=)
35. Look Back At It (+1)
36. Be Alright (-1)
37. Close To Me (=)
38. Taki Taki (=)
39. You Say (=)
40. Envy Me (=)
41. When The Party's Over (=)
42. Pure Water (+1)
43. Murder On My Mind (-1)
44. I Like It (=)
45. Leave Me Alone (=)
46. breathin (=)
47. Close Friends (=)
48. bury a friend (=)
49. I Don't Care (+7)
50. ME! (+1)
51. Baby Shark (-2)
52. Con Calma (-2)
53. Speechless (+1)
54. Suge (+4)
55. Trip (-3)
56. Swervin (-3)
57. Tequila (-2)
58. Act Up (+1)
59. Whiskey Glasses (+1)
60. Love Lies (-3)

Predicted Cutoff - 1500

61. Robbery (+1) WA: 2, WL: 2
62. Beautiful (-1)
63. God's Country (+6) WA: 1
64. If I Can't Have You (+11) WA: 1
65. Here Tonight (-2)
66. All I Want For Christmas Is You (-2)
67. Good As You (+3) WA: 3
68. Eyes On You (-1) WA: 3, WL: 2
69. This is It (-4)
70. Miss Me More (+1) WA: 4, WL: 0
71. Put a Date On It (-5)
72. Pop Out (+11) WA: 2
73. Look What God Gave Her (+7) WA: 3
74. Worth It (+2) WA: 4, WL: 2
75. Natural (-7)
76. Mixed Personalities (-4)
77. Girl Like You (-4)
78. Backin It Up (-4)
79. Here With Me (+2) WA: 6, WL: 5
80. Armed And Dangerous (-3)
81. Uproar (-3)
82. Make It Sweet (-3)
83. Ella Quiere Beber (-1)
84. Rumor (+9) WA: 3
85. Who Do You Love (-1)
86. Girls Need Love (+1) WA: 6, WL: 3
87. Walk Me Home (+4) WA: 6, WL: 4
88. Calling My Spirit (-3)
89. This Feeling (-3)
90. Millionaire (-2)
91. Twerk (-2)
92. Sixteen (-2)
93. Arms Around You (-1)
94. Talk You Out of It (+6) WA: 9, WL: 2
95. GIRL (NEW) WA: 8, WL: 4
96. Pure Cocaine (-2)
97. Burning Man (-2)
98. Best Shot (-2)
99. Good Girl (-2)
100. Shot Clock (-2)

Once we get to songs with >1000 points below the top 100, I'll start tracking them too. Talk You Out of It is the lowest song above that right now so it'll be a couple weeks

[spicymapping]

Jun 25, 2019 5:28:49 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Gonna list 10 songs that I think will be very borderline in making the 2019 year end list, but are still a bit too early to tell:

1) Rumor
2) Good As You
3) Cool
4) Walk Me Home
5) Worth It
6) Clout
7) Girls Need Love
8) Eyes On You
9) Here With Me
10) Robbery

My views on these is:

-Rumor is going to make it (sadly, it's one of my least favorite songs of the year and I can't quite figure out why).
-Good As You will float right at the bubble. It has the same weeks needed as weeks left and there's no way it hangs out in the top 50 for all of those weeks. It'll probably be above the cutoff when all is said and done but not by much, and if it isn't it can definitely get in via margin of error.
-Cool is early but I think not, if it stays stable for the next 9 weeks it'll make it on the last one, and considering it's already dropping i'd say no.
-Walk Me Home & Worth It are the best hits from their respective genres this year, a point I will fight you on, and right now they're looking pretty decent - Walk Me Home is rising on radio again and Worth It is getting a massive Spotify boost off of the XXL Freshmen announcement. They both might rise above 50 and both might dodge the 50/20 rule.
-Clout is also too early to tell, but an extremely sloppy projection puts it at just below the cutoff and right at the margin of error. There's basically no way to tell if its on the come up or come down at this point so I have no idea.
-Girls Need Love not gaining this week puts the nail in the coffin unless something big happens.
-Eyes On You, Here With Me and Robbery are all basically confirmed to not hit the estimate but to still be inside the margin of error at this point, though Here With Me might be low on that area and Robbery might be high.

[dynamac]

Do y’all think The London will hold up long enough to make the YE?

[inverse]

With that Close Friends has exited the hot 100 with enough points to likely make the year end with the third lowest peak position ever. Despite debuting at #28 if it were to make this year end list the highest week on the charts that would count would be at #47.

Lowest peaking songs ever:

El Perdon - 56
IDGAF - 49
(Close Friends - 47 projected)
Really Really - 46
Dura - 43
Both - 41
X - 41
Wicked - 41
Do Re Mi - 40
Drowning - 38
No Promises - 38
Studio - 38
The Fighter - 38

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Jun 25, 2019 1:32:50 GMT -5 Mylo13 💜 said:

Jun 24, 2019 18:45:23 GMT -5 HeyHeyHey said:

I just looked this up and was surprised to see only “H.O.L.Y”, “Die a Happy Man” and “Humble and Kind” on the year end chart for country songs that year. Unless I missed any that is a really low number. I wonder what the highest is for the decade, I’m sure 2016 was the lowest.

As far as I know they're the only ones haha. I'm not even sure what caused that tbh?

Country songs were likely weak in 2016, compared to 2019, which is very strong.

[Deleted]

Jun 25, 2019 19:51:34 GMT -5 dynamac said:

Do y’all think The London will hold up long enough to make the YE?

Still too early to tell, but since it seems like it's just slowly falling, I think it will make it unless it falls hard in the next few weeks.

[rockgolf]

Gotta run. Details to follow:

[rockgolf]

I'm back. Now, where was I?

So pretty obviously the above is my prediction on the top 100 songs of the year on the Hot 100 inclusive of the week of Jun 29, 2019.

Sunflower's lead is down to 226 but given they've both fallen out of the top 10, I can't see it catching up to Without Me.

My methodology tries to accommodate for massive chart hits like Old Town Road, but in an odd way. The first week a song is #1 is worth 325 points, but subsequent weeks are each bumped up by 5 points. So the 12th week at #1 is worth 425 points. In reality, most #1 hits have their biggest weeks at the start of their run (what I call front-loading) but I can't see ahead how long a song will be at #1 so in this method the song's biggest point gains are at the end of its chart reign (or as I call it, back-loading). So while other methods have OTR further up right now, its still just over 2,000 points behind first on my chart. Six more weeks at #1 (and I don't consider that unlikely) and it'll be near the top. Certainly still on trajectory for #1 of the year.

Khalid & Billie Eilish make big leaps into the top 25, and easily should be in the top 20 by year's end. Probably top 15 and Khalid is radio-friendly enough he could easily stay on long enough to make the top 10.

God's Country & If I Can't Have You have likely cemented their place in the final Top 100 by passing 1,100 points. Pop Out and the very catchy Truth Hurts look to be on their way there very soon.

There are 22 weeks left in BB2019, and if a new song jumped in at #1 and stayed there until Nov 30, it would get 9460 points. In 3 weeks, that theoretical maximum drops to 7,885, which at least 2 other songs will pass. In other words, on this chart it's virtually impossible now for an uncharted song to become #1 for the year.

So my interim prognostication on what will be the top ten of the year?

1. Old Town Road

2. Without Me

3. Sunflower

4. Wow.

5. 7 Rings

6. Happier

7. Sucker

8. Talk

9. Sicko Mode

10. High Hopes

[spicymapping]

Since we're all so busy with top 10 talks, I'm going to add top 20 because why not? There will prob be 1/2 songs Not currently charting in the teens, an I won't count those just because of how much of a PITA it would be to predict them.

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Wow.
5. 7 Rings
6. Happier
7. Sucker
8. Bad Guy
9. SICKO MODE
10. thank u, next
11. Talk
12. High Hopes
13. Eastside
14. I Don't Care
15. Dancing With a Stranger
16. Going Bad
17. Shallow
18. Girls Like You
19. Sweet But Psycho
20. Better

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - June 29th 2019

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000



Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- Old Town Road (69,300 points): most points during a 12th week at #1 in the Streaming Era (2nd most points in week 12: Despacito - 63,600 points - August 5, 2017);
- Talk (114.7M audience impressions): strongest radio #1 since High Hopes' 12th week at #1 (115.1M audience - Feb. 16, 2019);
New peak in points: bad guy, Talk, Suge, No Guidance;

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - June 29, 2019

[fhas]

Old Town Road is now the #1 song of the year.

Updated through June 29 (Week 32):

1. Old Town Road 990,900
2. Without Me 973,440
3. Sunflower 930,980

[rockgolf]

fhas: If you had to guess, how many weeks total do you think OTR will spend at #1?

[fhas]

Jun 30, 2019 19:14:01 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

fhas : If you had to guess, how many weeks total do you think OTR will spend at #1?

You know, I would love to have an answer for this but it's really hard.

The 14th week is 99% guaranteed.

Week 15 could be tricky if Post/Young Thug or Ed/Bruno song has a strong debut, but I still think it's hard to beat OTR if it's above 50k.

Week 16 is hard because I don't have any idea about how strong OTR is gonna be in three weeks and that's the week where Ed Sheeran's album could boost I Don't Care.

Week 17 is impossible to project.

My best prediction is 16 weeks at #1.

[tanooki]

Post Malone songs typically arent huge smashes on release, they take a few weeks to grow. If Ed/Justin couldn't do it, I dont think Ed/Bruno will be much different.


I may be crazy saying it, but i still think 18-20 weeks is possible given the right circumstances.

[kingvavis]

Jun 30, 2019 19:41:08 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Post Malone songs typically arent huge smashes on release, they take a few weeks to grow. If Ed/Justin couldn't do it, I dont think Ed/Bruno will be much different.


I may be crazy saying it, but i still think 18-20 weeks is possible given the right circumstances.

Psycho was a big debut for Post. I could see his new single outpacing that given his momentum.

[mikerivera]

June 29, 2019 YE Projections (31/52) 

Locked: Act Up
Striking distance: I Don’t Care, Good as You, Miss Me More, Eyes On You
Getting close: Rumor, Girls Need Love

On: Talk You Out of It
Off: Take It From Me

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a new #1 song of the year: Old Town Road. And at the rate it’s still going at, it probably won’t be passed. (Also in the top 10, Thank U Next continues its descent, with High Hopes now passing it).

Fell off this week: Beautiful Crazy, Bury a Friend, Close Friends, Put a Date On It
Projected spots
Beautiful Crazy: #44
Bury a Friend: #72
Close Friends: #74
Put a Date On It: will miss the year end

1. Old Town Road-Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus (+5,066.75) +1
2. Without Me-Halsey (+4,863) -1
3. Sunflower-Post Malone & Swae Lee (+4,736) =
4. Happier*-Marshmello & Bastille (+3,908) =
5. Sicko Mode*-Travis Scott (+3,719.5) =
6. 7 Rings-Ariana Grande (+3,655) =
7. High Hopes-Panic! At the Disco (+3,592) +1
8. Thank U, Next-Ariana Grande (3,553) -1
9. Wow-Post Malone (+3,386) =
10. Eastside*-Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid (+3,037.5) =
11. Shallow-Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper (+2,727.5) =
12. Going Bad-Meek Mill ft. Drake (+2,725.5) =
13. Girls Like You*-Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B (2,610) =
14. Better-Khalid (+2,482) =
15. Drip Too Hard-Lil Baby & Gunna (2,405.5) =
16. Middle Child-J. Cole (+2,370) =
17. Sweet but Psycho-Ava Max (+2,308.75) =
18. Dancing with a Stranger-Sam Smith & Normani (+2,231.5) =
19. Sucker-Jonas Brothers (+2,202) =
20. Break Up With your Girlfriend, I’m Bored-Ariana Grande (+1,905.5) +4
21. Better Now*-Post Malone (1,897.5) -1
22. Zeze-Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset (1,882.5) -1
23. YoungBlood*-5 Seconds of Summer (1,876) -1
24. Talk-Khalid (+1,864.5) +5
25. Money-Cardi B (1,854) -2
26. Please Me-Cardi B & Bruno Mars (+1,849.25) =
27. A Lot-21 Savage (1,823) -2
28. Beautiful Crazy-Luke Combs (1,763.25) -1
29. Thotiana-Blueface (1,701.5) -1
30. Mía-Bad Bunny ft. Drake (1,696) =
31. Look Back at It-A Boogie wit da Hoodie (+1,677.5) +1
32. Be Alright-Dean Lewis (1,631.25) -1
33. Bad Guy-Billie Eilish (+1,603) +6
34. Envy Me-Calboy (+1,587.75) =
35. Close to Me-Ellie Goulding & Diplo ft. Swae Lee (1,556.25) -2
36. You Say-Lauren Daigle (1,527.5) -1
37. Lucid Dreams*-Juice WRLD (1,487) -1
38. Wake Up in the Sky-Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black (1,461.5) -1
39. Mo Bamba-Sheck Wes (1,458.5) -1
40. Taki Taki-DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B (1,406) =
41. When the Party’s Over-Billie Eilish (+1,378) +1
42. Murder on my Mind-YNW Melly (1,372.25) -1
43. Pure Water-Mustard & Migos (+1,343) =
44. Baby Shark-Pinkfong (1,228.75) =
45. I Like It*-Cardi B, J Balvin & Bad Bunny (1,226.5) =
46. Bury a Friend-Billie Eilish (1,211) =
47. Leave Me Alone-Flipp Dinero (1,209) =
48. Close Friends-Lil Baby (1,187.5) =
49. Me!-Taylor Swift ft. Brendon Urie (+1,177) +2
50. Con Calma-Daddy Yankee & Katy Perry ft. Snow (+1,131) +2
51. Swervin-A Boogie wit da Hoodie ft. 6ix9ine (1,111.75) -2
52. Breathin-Ariana Grande (1,100) -2
53. Speechless-Dan+Shay (+1,069) =
54. Act Up-City Girls (+1,016.75) +1
55. Suge-DaBaby (+989) +4
56. Whiskey Glasses-Morgan Wallen (+965.75) +2
57. Trip*-Ella Mai (950) -3
58. I Don’t Care-Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber (+947) +12
59. Tequila*-Dan+Shay (912) -3
60. Love Lies*-Khalid & Normani (888.5) -3
61. Robbery-Juice WRLD (+888.25) =
62. Good as You-Kane Brown (+885.25) +2
63. Eyes on You-Chase Rice (+866.75) +2
64. This is It-Scotty McCreery (864.5) -4
65. Miss Me More-Kelsea Ballerini (+863) +3
66. Here Tonight-Brett Young (847.25) -4
67. Worth It-YK Osiris (+843) +2
68. Girl Like You-Jason Aldean (837.5) -5
69. Look What God Gave Her-Thomas Rhett (+836.25) +3
70. God’s Country-Blake Shelton (+829) +5
71. Beautiful-Bazzi ft. Camila Cabello (823) -5
72. Put a Date on It-Yo Gotti ft. Lil Baby (821.75) -5
73. Mixed Personalities-YNW Melly ft. Kanye West (793) -2
74. Here With Me-Marshmello ft. CHVRCHES (+790.5) +1
75. Pop Out-Polo G ft. Lil Tjay (+785.25) +6
76. Rumor-Lee Brice (+751.25) +10
77. Backin It Up-Pardison Fontaine ft. Cardi B (747.25) -3
78. If I Can’t Have You-Shawn Mendes (+747) +13
79. Who Do You Love-The Chainsmokers ft. 5 Seconds of Summer (740.25) -3
80. Girls Need Love-Summer Walker & Drake (+728.75) +3
81. Walk Me Home-P!nk (+727.5) +4
82. Make it Sweet-Old Dominion (723.25) -5
83. Calling My Spirit-Kodak Black (705.75) -5
84. Uproar-Lil Wayne (698.75) -5
85. Natural*-Imagine Dragons (698) -5
86. Armed & Dangerous-Juice WRLD (691.5) -4
87. Ella Quiere Beber-Anuel AA & Romeo Santos (679.25) -3
88. This Feeling-The Chainsmokers & Kelsea Ballerini (669.5) -1
89. Twerk-City Girls ft. Cardi B (665.5) -1
90. Pure Cocaine-Lil Baby (660.75) -1
91. Millionaire-Chris Stapleton (658) -1
92. Girl-Maren Morris (+651) +2
93. Sixteen-Thomas Rhett (629) -1
94. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart-Mark Ronson ft. Miley Cyrus (607) -1
95. Shot Clock-Ella Mai (604.25) =
96. Talk You Out of It-Florida Georgia Line (+602) NEW
97. Lovely-Billie Eilish & Khalid (599.5) -1
98. Night Shift-Jon Pardi (590.5) -1
99. Burning Man-Dierks Bentley ft. Brothers Osborne (585) -1
100. Arms Around You-XXXTENTACION & Lil Pump ft. Maluma & Swae Lee (584.5) -1

[inverse]

If Worth It were to just hold its position for two weeks and fall off after that it would be at 939 with a fighting chance with a chart run of Peak 52 weeks 20. We are officially living in the absurdist era of Billboard charts.

The atrocity Eyes On You would be at 942.75 if it held its position for the last two weeks. Lets hope it only charts one more week at like 90 then falls off.

[Deleted]

Jul 1, 2019 0:49:31 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

55. Suge-DaBaby (+989) +4
56. Whiskey Glasses-Morgan Wallen (+965.75) +2
57. Trip*-Ella Mai (950) -3
58. I Don’t Care-Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber (+947) +12
59. Tequila*-Dan+Shay (912) -3
60. Love Lies*-Khalid & Normani (888.5) -3
61. Robbery-Juice WRLD (+888.25) =
62. Good as You-Kane Brown (+885.25) +2
63. Eyes on You-Chase Rice (+866.75) +2
64. This is It-Scotty McCreery (864.5) -4
65. Miss Me More-Kelsea Ballerini (+863) +3

How many points do you think will be the final cutoff this year and what song would most likely be #100?

I know you said Love Lies a few months ago but the cutoff point could have changed for all we know.

[mikerivera]

Jul 1, 2019 1:03:57 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Jul 1, 2019 0:49:31 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

55. Suge-DaBaby (+989) +4
56. Whiskey Glasses-Morgan Wallen (+965.75) +2
57. Trip*-Ella Mai (950) -3
58. I Don’t Care-Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber (+947) +12
59. Tequila*-Dan+Shay (912) -3
60. Love Lies*-Khalid & Normani (888.5) -3
61. Robbery-Juice WRLD (+888.25) =
62. Good as You-Kane Brown (+885.25) +2
63. Eyes on You-Chase Rice (+866.75) +2
64. This is It-Scotty McCreery (864.5) -4
65. Miss Me More-Kelsea Ballerini (+863) +3

How many points do you think will be the final cutoff this year and what song would most likely be #100?

I know you said Love Lies a few months ago but the cutoff point could have changed for all we know.

Yes, I did say Love Lies, but that was before I changed the formula for the bottom half of the charts. As for what I expect to be the cutoff, I recently recalculated my 2018 year end projections. The #100 song was All Girls Are the Same at 928.5 points. It’s also worth noting that at the halfway point this year, the #50 song was Trip. So I would expect somewhere between 925-950 as the cutoff. At this very moment, Tequila is the closest to that, but it wouldn’t shock me if it just misses the cut.