Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[rimetm]

June 15, 2019 - 30/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

June 22, 2019 - 31/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

June 29, 2019 - 32/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

July 6, 2019 - 33/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

July 13, 2019 - 34/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

[Deleted]

Worth It has a good chance of making the YE list despite only peaking at 52. It's a great song so I'm glad it might do it.

[mikerivera]

July 20, 2019 YE Projections (33/52) 

Locked: If I Can’t Have You, Pop Out, Good as You
Striking distance: Truth Hurts, Walk Me Home
Getting close: Clout, Talk You Out of It

On: Ocean Eyes
Off: Nothing Breaks Like a Heart

In the top 10, 7 Rings passes Sicko Mode

Fell off this week: Please Me, Eyes On You
Projected spots
Please Me: #36
Eyes on You: #99

1. Old Town Road-Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus (+5,992.75) =
2. Without Me-Halsey (+5,127) =
3. Sunflower-Post Malone & Swae Lee (+5,089) =
4. Happier*-Marshmello & Bastille (+4,148.5) =
5. 7 Rings-Ariana Grande (+3,894.5) +1
6. Sicko Mode*-Travis Scott (+3,885) -1
7. High Hopes-Panic! At the Disco (+3,800.5) =
8. Wow-Post Malone (+3,726) +1
9. Thank U, Next-Ariana Grande (3,553) -1
10. Eastside*-Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid (+3,234.5) =
11. Going Bad-Meek Mill ft. Drake (+2,906.5) =
12. Shallow-Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper (+2,897) =
13. Better-Khalid (+2,652) +1
14. Girls Like You*-Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B (2,610) -1
15. Sucker-Jonas Brothers (+2,595) +2
16. Middle Child-J. Cole (+2,563.5) -1
17. Sweet but Psycho-Ava Max (+2,549.75) -1
18. Dancing with a Stranger-Sam Smith & Normani (+2,539.5) =
19. Drip Too Hard-Lil Baby & Gunna (2,405.5) =
20. Talk-Khalid (+2,382.5) =
21. Bad Guy-Billie Eilish (+2,129) +1
22. Break Up With your Girlfriend, I’m Bored-Ariana Grande (1,959) -1
23. Please Me-Cardi B & Bruno Mars (1,937) =
24. Better Now*-Post Malone (1,897.5) =
25. Zeze-Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset (1,882.5) =
26. YoungBlood*-5 Seconds of Summer (1,876) =
27. Money-Cardi B (1,854) =
28. Look Back at It-A Boogie wit da Hoodie (+1,842) +1
29. A Lot-21 Savage (1,823) -1
30. Beautiful Crazy-Luke Combs (1,763.25) =
31. Thotiana-Blueface (1,701.5) =
32. Mía-Bad Bunny ft. Drake (1,696) =
33. Be Alright-Dean Lewis (1,631.25) =
34. Envy Me-Calboy (1,587.75) =
35. Close to Me-Ellie Goulding & Diplo ft. Swae Lee (1,556.25) =
36. Pure Water-Mustard & Migos (+1,545) +2
37. You Say-Lauren Daigle (1,527.5) -1
38. Lucid Dreams*-Juice WRLD (1,487) -1
39. Wake Up in the Sky-Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black (1,461.5) =
40. Mo Bamba-Sheck Wes (1,458.5) =
41. Taki Taki-DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B (1,406) =
42. I Don’t Care-Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber (+1,389) +3
43. When the Party’s Over-Billie Eilish (1,378) -1
44. Murder on my Mind-YNW Melly (1,372.25) -1
45. Me!-Taylor Swift ft. Brendon Urie (+1,362) -1
46. Suge-DaBaby (+1,340) +1
47. Con Calma-Daddy Yankee & Katy Perry ft. Snow (+1,314) -1
48. Speechless-Dan+Shay (+1,263) +4
49. Act Up-City Girls (+1,233.25) +5
50. Baby Shark-Pinkfong (1,228.75) -2
51. I Like It*-Cardi B, J Balvin & Bad Bunny (1,226.5) -2
52. Bury a Friend-Billie Eilish (1,211) -2
53. Leave Me Alone-Flipp Dinero (1,209) -2
54. Whiskey Glasses-Morgan Wallen (+1,192.25) +1
55. Close Friends-Lil Baby (1,187.5) -2
56. Swervin-A Boogie wit da Hoodie ft. 6ix9ine (1,111.75) =
57. God’s Country-Blake Shelton (+1,101) +1
58. Breathin-Ariana Grande (1,100) -1
59. If I Can’t Have You-Shawn Mendes (+1,075) +1
60. Pop Out-Polo G ft. Lil Tjay (+1,037.25) +1
61. Good as You-Kane Brown (+1,023.5) +2
62. Worth It-YK Osiris (+986) +1
63. Look What God Gave Her-Thomas Rhett (+984.75) +1
64. Rumor-Lee Brice (+968.25) +3
65. Trip*-Ella Mai (950) -3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - projected cutoff - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
66. Eyes on You-Chase Rice (933.75) -1
67. Tequila*-Dan+Shay (912) -1
68. Truth Hurts-Lizzo (+905) +12
69. Love Lies*-Khalid & Normani (888.5) -1
70. Robbery-Juice WRLD (888.25) -1
71. This is It-Scotty McCreery (864.5) -1
72. Walk Me Home-P!nk (+863.75) +5
73. Miss Me More-Kelsea Ballerini (863) -2
74. Here Tonight-Brett Young (847.25) -2
75. Girl Like You-Jason Aldean (837.5) -2
76. Girls Need Love-Summer Walker & Drake (+831) +2
77. Here With Me-Marshmello ft. CHVRCHES (823.25) -3
78. Beautiful-Bazzi ft. Camila Cabello (823) -3
79. Put a Date on It-Yo Gotti ft. Lil Baby (821.75) -3
80. Hey Look Ma, I Made It-Panic! At the Disco (+820.75) +4
81. Girl-Maren Morris (+793.5) +1
82. Mixed Personalities-YNW Melly ft. Kanye West (793) -3
83. Backin It Up-Pardison Fontaine ft. Cardi B (747.25) -2
84. Who Do You Love-The Chainsmokers ft. 5 Seconds of Summer (740.25) -1
85. Make it Sweet-Old Dominion (723.25) =
86. Talk You Out of It-Florida Georgia Line (+722.25) +4
87. Calling My Spirit-Kodak Black (705.75) -1
88. Clout-Offset ft. Cardi B (+700.5) +8
89. Uproar-Lil Wayne (698.75) -2
90. Natural*-Imagine Dragons (698) -2
91. Beer Never Broke My Heart-Luke Combs (+696) +8
92. Armed & Dangerous-Juice WRLD (691.5) -3
93. Ella Quiere Beber-Anuel AA & Romeo Santos (679.25) -2
94. Cool-Jonas Brothers (+676) +3
95. This Feeling-The Chainsmokers & Kelsea Ballerini (669.5) -3
96. Twerk-City Girls ft. Cardi B (665.5) -3
97. Pure Cocaine-Lil Baby (660.75) -3
98. Millionaire-Chris Stapleton (658) -3
99. Sixteen-Thomas Rhett (629) -1
100. Ocean Eyes-Billie Eilish (+607.25) NEW

Watch List:
-No Guidance-Chris Brown ft. Drake (+573)
-The London-Young Thug, J. Cole & Travis Scott (+566)
-You Need to Calm Down-Taylor Swift (+509)
-Shotta Flow-NLA Choppa (+487.75)
-Señorita-Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello (+485)
-Money in the Grave-Drake ft. Rick Ross (+472)
-Never Really Over-Katy Perry (+466)
-Someone You Loved-Lewis Capaldi (+430.25)
-The Git Up-Blanco Brown (+352)
-Ran$om-Lil Tecca (+315.5)

[mikerivera]

Given that I won’t have my laptop this weekend, I won’t be able to add in the colors until Sunday. Sorry about that.

[samo🦕]

I really want Walk Me Home to make it.

[spicymapping]

Jul 20, 2019 4:58:46 GMT -5 samo🦕 said:

I really want Walk Me Home to make it.

It’s gonna take a miracle but it deserves one.

[spicymapping]

I plan on making a year end for artists using my 75/75 100/50 system but i can’t motivate myself to with the knowledge that Chance will be behind whatever the hell a Pnb Rock is.

[samo🦕]

With it being a similar model to the one I originally made the playlist for (fhas '), I'll update the predictions playlist to rimetm 's.

Edit: Here we go!

Edit [2]: Because that didn't seem to work, here's the link:

[twelvevinylrecords]

Is there any way a song like Ocean Eyes can go recurrent and then chart again? Or is it over

[mikerivera]

Jul 20, 2019 11:05:06 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Is there any way a song like Ocean Eyes can go recurrent and then chart again? Or is it over

If they push it as a radio single, and it manages to stream and sell well enough to chart inside the top 50. I wouldn’t get my hopes up.

[rimetm]

As a radio single, if it beats its peak, they’ll let it back on. Sail had this happen to it back in the day, and I seem to recall some examples from country.

[rockgolf]

My year-end estimates based on Dec 1, 2018 to Jul 20, 2019:

It's great to see fhas calculations, even if they arent by him personally. I agree, OTR is probably already #1 for the year, but my chart "back loads", that is a long-running #1 gets more points as it goes along, so I fully expect to match the year chart-topper in about a month's time. My estimate of needing ~1100 points to make the year end is still looking pretty good. So Truth Hurts, Good As You and Look What God Gave Her a semi-officially on the year-end list.

Eastside is almost certain to be removed from the chart next week as it's out of the top 25 and at 52 weeks. Shallow could also fall off if it doesn't maintain its place in the top 50.

[inverse]

Lol Ocean Eyes with that #100 with its peak of 8, by a margin of 0.25 points 

[twelvevinylrecords]

I’m calling it right now. Earfquake makes the YE at number 89

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - July 20th 2019

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000



Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- Talk (133.2M audience impressions): strongest radio #1 (by audience) since Meant To Be (136.0M audience - May 5, 2018);
- Talk (19,029 radio points): strongest radio #1 (by points) since That's What I Like (19,643 points - 165.0M audience - June 24, 2017);
New peak in points: bad guy, Truth Hurts;

15th week at #1 this decade:
- Old Town Road: 43k sales + 65.2M airplay + 70.5M streams = 52,000 points
- Despacito: 83k sales + 120.0M airplay + 46.4M streams = 54,400 points

- Old Town Road: 13.8% sales + 17.9% airplay + 68.3% streaming
- Despacito: 21.2% sales + 26.3% airplay + 52.5% streaming

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - July 20, 2019

[rimetm]

July 20, 2019 - 35/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

[samo🦕]

[fhas]

If Sicko Mode goes recurrent this week, it's gonna be 50-50 for top 10 on the YE chart.

[rockgolf]

Jul 21, 2019 16:03:53 GMT -5 fhas said:

If Sicko Mode goes recurrent this week, it's gonna be 50-50 for top 10 on the YE chart.

You think there's 5 songs that can climb above it in the remaining weeks? Talk  and bad guy have a lot of ground to have to catch up on.

[inverse]

I think Sicko Mode is unfortunately a miss for the top 10. It'll be passed by 7 Rings, Wow, Bad Guy, and Talk for sure. If it falls off next week it'll be passed by High Hopes and I can't see it surviving especially with probably two or three Ed Sheeran songs entering top 50. That puts it at #10 which means that Sucker needs to not pass it and bounce it out of the top 10. But I honestly don't see that happening. If it just accumulated the point total of Mo Bamba (16 week fall from #6 to out) it'll pass it.

If the nov 24 chart is counted it's still vulnerable to High Hopes but its chances of holding back Sucker or Talk are greatly increased

Edit: Also fhas just wondering how close would you say RimeTM's numbers are to what you would have had?

[fhas]

Jul 21, 2019 17:15:14 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Jul 21, 2019 16:03:53 GMT -5 fhas said:

If Sicko Mode goes recurrent this week, it's gonna be 50-50 for top 10 on the YE chart.

You think there's 5 songs that can climb above it in the remaining weeks? Talk  and bad guy have a lot of ground to have to catch up on.

I wrote this because the cutoff for #10 on the YE chart usually is 750-800k points.

High Hopes, bad guy, Talk, Sucker and maybe I Don't Care/Señorita/Truth Hurts have a chance to pass Sicko Mode.

[fhas]

Jul 21, 2019 17:17:59 GMT -5 inverse said:

I think Sicko Mode is unfortunately a miss for the top 10. It'll be passed by 7 Rings, Wow, Bad Guy, and Talk for sure. If it falls off next week it'll be passed by High Hopes and I can't see it surviving especially with probably two or three Ed Sheeran songs entering top 50. That puts it at #10 which means that Sucker needs to not pass it and bounce it out of the top 10. But I honestly don't see that happening. If it just accumulated the point total of Mo Bamba (16 week fall from #6 to out) it'll pass it.

If the nov 24 chart is counted it's still vulnerable to High Hopes but its chances of holding back Sucker or Talk are greatly increased

Edit: Also fhas just wondering how close would you say RimeTM's numbers are to what you would have had?

For the songs that I track (20 songs every week), it's the same data. For the other songs, I think he's extremely accurate.

[mikerivera]

That looks like it’ll settle it. Taylor Swift, Ed Sheeran, Justin Bieber, Shawn Mendes, Billie Eilish, Camila Cabello and Post Malone have all failed to stop Old Town Road, and it now looks like it’ll set the record for longest run at #1 of all time.

[kingscouser]

I think Billie Eillish Could Possibly Dethrone Old Town Road. As long as it keeps sturdy and nothing new debuts too high.

[yuh yuh]

About how many points thank u, next has in total when combining its 2018 and 2019 points?

[flextamcsignals]

Bold prediction: Talk You Out Of It’s making the year-end.

It just achieved a new peak at 22 weeks and has yet to go top 10 on country airplay. If it keeps growing there, it won’t go recurrent on the main chart and get enough points.

[samo🦕]

Jul 23, 2019 5:31:16 GMT -5 yuh yuh said:

About how many points thank u, next has in total when combining its 2018 and 2019 points?

Since it only had one week counting towards the 2018 chart (November 17th), its total would be 794,470.

[HeyHeyHey]

Jul 23, 2019 9:40:40 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

Bold prediction: Talk You Out Of It’s making the year-end.

It just achieved a new peak at 22 weeks and has yet to go top 10 on country airplay. If it keeps growing there, it won’t go recurrent on the main chart and get enough points.

That would be interesting as it really doesn’t feel like one of the 100 biggest hits of the year, it doesn’t even feel like that big of a country hit. It would certainly be interesting if it made it.