inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,095
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Post by inverse on Jul 23, 2019 13:51:47 GMT -5
Something interesting is that as of now there's no real clear standout for what's gonna be the top song to have not peaked in the top 10. At this time last two years Say You Won't Let Go and Mine were pretty much locked in for that achievement but this year as of now it's a fight between Youngblood and Money, both of which are totally overtakeable but I'm not sure by what. Pop Out maybe. Better and Sweet But Psycho were so close lol Lol @ Look Back At It overtaking all of these and being the highest song to not hit the top 10 right now.
I still think it's probably gonna get passed by Pop Out eventually but it would be the first time in a long time that the highest song to make the year end list with no top 10 also didn't make the top 20
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 23, 2019 16:17:18 GMT -5
el perdon 2 is confirmed guys
TL,DR:
Locked: Worth It, Look What God Gave Her, Rumor
Added: Senorita, No Guidance, Money In The Grave, You Need To Calm Down, The London, Calma
1. Without Me (=)
2. Sunflower (=)
3. Old Town Road (+2)
4. Happier (-1)
5. 7 Rings (-1)
6. SICKO MODE (=)
7. Wow. (+1)
8. thank u, next (-1)
Top 10 Cutoff - 7000
9. High Hopes (=)
10. Eastside (=)
11. Sucker (=)
12. Shallow (=)
13. Going Bad (=)
14. Girls Like You (=)
15. Bad Guy (+5)
16. Talk (+3)
17. Dancing With a Stranger (=)
18. MIDDLE CHILD (-3)
19. Better (-3)
20. Drip Too Hard (-2)
21. Sweet But Psycho (=)
22. Please Me (=)
23. ZEZE (=)
24. Better Now (=)
25. Youngblood (=)
26. Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored (=)
27. Money (=)
28. I Don't Care (+7)
29. a lot (-1)
30. MIA (-1)
31. Look Back At It (-1)
32. Thotiana (-1)
33. Beautiful Crazy (-1)
34. Lucid Dreams (-1)
35. Mo Bamba (-1)
36. Wake Up In The Sky (=)
37. Be Alright (=)
38. Pure Water (+1)
39. Suge (+4)
40. Close To Me (-2)
41. Taki Taki (-1)
42. You Say (-1)
43. Envy Me (-1)
44. When The Party's Over (=)
45. ME! (=)
46. Con Calma (+1)
47. Speechless (+1)
48. Murder On My Mind (-2)
49. Whiskey Glasses (+3)
50. If I Can't Have You (+6)
51. I Like It (-2)
52. Act Up (+1)
53. Leave Me Alone (-3)
54. breathin (-3)
55. God's Country (+3)
56. Close Friends (-2)
57. Bury a Friend (-2)
58. Pop Out (+1)
59. Baby Shark (-2)
60. Truth Hurts (+3)
61. Trip (-1)
62. Swervin (-1)
63. Tequila (-1)
64. Rumor (+3)
65. Look What God Gave Her (+1)
66. Worth It (+2)
67. Good As You (-3)
68. Love Lies (-3)
Predicted Cutoff - 3000
69. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (+7) WA: 1
70. Eyes On You (-1)
71. Robbery (-1)
72. Beautiful (-1)
73. Walk Me Home (+2) WA: 3, WL: 0
74. Here Tonight (-2)
75. All I Want For Christmas Is You (-2)
76. This is It (-2)
77. Miss Me More (=)
78. Girls Need Love (=)
79. Put a Date On It (=)
80. GIRL (+5) WA: 3, WL: 0
81. Natural (-1)
82. Here With Me (-1)
83. Beer Never Broke My Heart (+9) WA: 2
84. Talk You Out of It (+4) WA: 5, WL: 0
85. Mixed Personalities (-3)
86. Girl Like You (-3)
87. Backin It Up (-3)
88. Senorita (NEW) WA: 1
89. Armed And Dangerous (-3)
90. Uproar (-3)
91. No Guidance (NEW) WA: 2
92. Make It Sweet (-3)
93. Ella Quiere Beber (-3)
94. Clout (+2) WA: 5
95. Who Do You Love (-4)
96. Calling My Spirit (-3)
97. This Feeling (-3)
98. Cool (+2) WA: 7, WL: 5
99. The London (NEW) WA: 4
100. Ocean Eyes (-5)
101. Millionaire (-4)
102. Twerk (-4)
103. Sixteen (-4)
104. You Need To Calm Down (NEW) WA: 3
105. Calma (NEW) WA: 9, WL: 2
106. Arms Around You (-5)
107. Money In The Grave (NEW) WA: 3
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tallen2001
Platinum Member
See my days are cold without you
Joined: September 2018
Posts: 1,215
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Post by tallen2001 on Jul 23, 2019 16:37:53 GMT -5
Country is having a really great year this year. Plus it helps that quite a few of them are actually good songs.
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Post by twelvevinylrecords on Jul 23, 2019 18:44:51 GMT -5
The next few weeks are gonna be crazy for songs locking in their year end spots, which is great because I like most of them (Domestic Abuser excluded)
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tallen2001
Platinum Member
See my days are cold without you
Joined: September 2018
Posts: 1,215
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Post by tallen2001 on Jul 23, 2019 18:50:12 GMT -5
This year is shaping up to be one of my favorite years for music this decade. 2015 and 2012 still have that on lock though. A lot better than last year.
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Post by twelvevinylrecords on Jul 23, 2019 18:52:09 GMT -5
This year is shaping up to be one of my favorite years for music this decade. 2015 and 2012 still have that on lock though. A lot better than last year. Agreed. I don’t like many of the songs making the YE but so many of them are weird and bizarre, like having The Jonas Brothers, P!ATD, Bastille, Billie Eilish Lady Gaga Bradley Cooper and Billy Ray Cyrus on the same YE is crazy. Definitely better than 2018 by far. |
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Post by Naos on Jul 23, 2019 19:03:53 GMT -5
So far for country we got:
Beautiful Crazy
Speechless
Tequila
God's Country
Rumor
Whiskey Glasses
Look What God Gave Her
Good as You
I'd also expect "Beer Never Broke My Heart" and "The Git Up" to lock.
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rainie
8x Platinum Member
the future disappears into memory
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Posts: 8,779
Pronouns: they / them
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Post by rainie on Jul 23, 2019 20:02:41 GMT -5
how many points do you guys think Earfquake has right now? really rooting for it to sneak onto the YE top 100, i have a bad feeing about it though.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jul 23, 2019 23:05:02 GMT -5
^I don't know about the points, but it would need to stop dropping, for starters, and stay in the chart probably needing to reach 20 weeks to have a good chance of making it.
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mikerivera
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2018
Posts: 1,778
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 24, 2019 0:07:48 GMT -5
About how many points thank u, next has in total when combining its 2018 and 2019 points? 4,043 points. If you put that into a single year, it would probably end up around #10 on a year end. |
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mikerivera
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2018
Posts: 1,778
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 24, 2019 0:10:02 GMT -5
how many points do you guys think Earfquake has right now? really rooting for it to sneak onto the YE top 100, i have a bad feeing about it though. I currently have it at 551.5. I’m not putting it on my watch list because it’s falling off too quickly right now, but it should have enough points to break onto the top 100 list in a week or two. |
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
ahoe s2e11 out now
Joined: December 2018
Posts: 1,116
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 24, 2019 0:57:16 GMT -5
So far for country we got: Beautiful Crazy Speechless Tequila God's Country Rumor Whiskey Glasses Look What God Gave Her Good as You I'd also expect "Beer Never Broke My Heart" and "The Git Up" to lock. Don’t forget girl, it’s still rising big so it’ll dodge recurrency but it might not even need to since it’ll break top 50 |
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Post by Naos on Jul 24, 2019 2:41:28 GMT -5
Interesting what Mark Grondin from Spectrum Pulse had to say about "Good As You" and the year-end list: "I've seen the projections, and I have my own. Given where it peaked and the fact that we have several months left of the Billboard year, it's premature to say it clinched the spot, and my metrics are more inclined to say it misses it."
He has also said a few times that "Look What God Gave Her" could miss it.
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
ahoe s2e11 out now
Joined: December 2018
Posts: 1,116
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 24, 2019 3:14:18 GMT -5
Interesting what Mark Grondin from Spectrum Pulse had to say about "Good As You" and the year-end list: "I've seen the projections, and I have my own. Given where it peaked and the fact that we have several months left of the Billboard year, it's premature to say it clinched the spot, and my metrics are more inclined to say it misses it." He has also said a few times that "Look What God Gave Her" could miss it. He tends to just be more conservative with what is locked. When year end comes, I expect it’ll be top 100 for him too. |
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yuh yuh
2x Platinum Member
donde voy, tu siempre iras - donde estoy, tu siempre estaras
Joined: August 2015
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Post by yuh yuh on Jul 24, 2019 9:48:25 GMT -5
About how many points thank u, next has in total when combining its 2018 and 2019 points? Since it only had one week counting towards the 2018 chart (November 17th), its total would be 794,470. Oh thanks! I don't know why I thought it charted whole November. |
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,095
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Post by inverse on Jul 24, 2019 11:23:41 GMT -5
Interesting what Mark Grondin from Spectrum Pulse had to say about "Good As You" and the year-end list: "I've seen the projections, and I have my own. Given where it peaked and the fact that we have several months left of the Billboard year, it's premature to say it clinched the spot, and my metrics are more inclined to say it misses it." He has also said a few times that "Look What God Gave Her" could miss it. I love Spectrum Pulse a lot but he’s not good at predictions and shouldn’t be taken seriously in that regard. Last year he said King’s Dead was an open question, Say Something would miss, I’m Upset would miss (that one dropped out right near the end when it should’ve been easy to see it was safe), Moonlight would miss (same story), and this year seems generally unaware that it’s not 2013 anymore and that songs can clinch spots with much smaller runs. Good As You might miss but it’s certainly too close to say right now. Music analysis though he’s great at that |
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
ahoe s2e11 out now
Joined: December 2018
Posts: 1,116
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 24, 2019 14:20:56 GMT -5
Now that Sicko Mode’s exit looms and happier’s recurrency is drawing nearer, here is my updated top 10 prediction
1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Wow.
5. bad guy
6. 7 Rings
7. Happier
8. Sucker
9. I Don’t Care
10. Talk
11. High Hopes
12. SICKO MODE
13. thank u, next
14. Señorita
15. Dancing With a Stranger
16. Going Bad
17. MIDDLE CHILD
18. Truth Hurts
19. Eastside
20. Shallow
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2019 21:03:34 GMT -5
So far for country we got: Beautiful Crazy Speechless Tequila God's Country Rumor Whiskey Glasses Look What God Gave Her Good as You I'd also expect "Beer Never Broke My Heart" and "The Git Up" to lock. The following country songs also have a chance to get in the YE list late: 1) GIRL (SpicyMapping already mentioned this.) 2) Knockin Boots 3) All To Myself 4) Rearview Town 5) Talk You Out Of It (If this makes it, then it will most likely beat El Perdon's record of lowest peaking song to make a YE list). There's also two country songs that aren't safe but still have a small chance: 1) Eyes On You 2) This Is It (This one's chances are very low but it's not impossible for it to sneak in.)
For the last two songs I mentioned, I feel they will have to be kicked off the YE list (especially the last one) for the first five I mentioned to make it.
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Post by twelvevinylrecords on Jul 24, 2019 23:48:41 GMT -5
Now that Sicko Mode’s exit looms and happier’s recurrency is drawing nearer, here is my updated top 10 prediction 1. Old Town Road 2. Sunflower 3. Without Me 4. Wow. 5. bad guy 6. 7 Rings 7. Happier 8. Sucker 9. I Don’t Care 10. Talk 11. High Hopes 12. SICKO MODE 13. thank u, next 14. Señorita 15. Dancing With a Stranger 16. Going Bad 17. MIDDLE CHILD 18. Truth Hurts 19. Eastside 20. Shallow Man simply looking at this top twenty shows how good this year has been. 7 rings and I Don’t Care are probably the worst songs here imo and they’re just below average |
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spitfire
Charting
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 113
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Post by spitfire on Jul 25, 2019 13:48:50 GMT -5
Where do you think MIDDLE CHILD will finish on the year end chart?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2019 14:35:47 GMT -5
Where do you think MIDDLE CHILD will finish on the year end chart? I say around 20-25, but that's just a rough estimate. |
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Post by feldspar905 on Jul 26, 2019 5:52:57 GMT -5
Talk you out of it´s run is fucking amazing for its low peak.Half of the year is over and its in the mid-80s of the prediction
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spitfire
Charting
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 113
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Post by spitfire on Jul 26, 2019 11:32:00 GMT -5
Where do you think MIDDLE CHILD will finish on the year end chart? I say around 20-25, but that's just a rough estimate. I hope it can sneak into the top 20. |
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spitfire
Charting
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 113
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Post by spitfire on Jul 26, 2019 14:14:30 GMT -5
What is roughly the cut-off in terms of points for the top 20?
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rockgolf
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Posts: 2,120
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 26, 2019 17:15:04 GMT -5
My estimated Billboard year-end (including the Jul 27, 2019 chart).
I'm adding a new column to the chart this week. "Gain" is the number of points gained by the song due to this week's chart placing. It should give a better idea of how far songs are moving.
I think 4 songs have guaranteed year-end spots this week: Worth It, Rumor, Look What God Gave Her, and, appropriately, Hey Look ma, I Made It! Old Town Road makes strong point gains, but the gap is large enough that it will still take a while to climb. Bad Guy makes a 4 point leap in the top 20, and may go two more next week, since the two songs above it are at risk of falling off.
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HeyHeyHey
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Posts: 3,758
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Jul 26, 2019 17:47:42 GMT -5
I hope Señorita, Beer Never Broke My Heart and Hey, Look Ma I Made It all have a nice high position on the year end! I could see Shawn/Camila having nice longevity throughout the fall.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jul 28, 2019 14:26:56 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - July 27th 2019Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000  Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jul 28, 2019 14:27:57 GMT -5
Highlights of the week:
- Talk (133.3M audience impressions): strongest radio #1 (by audience) since Meant To Be (136.0M audience - May 5, 2018);
- Talk (19,043 radio points): strongest radio #1 (by points) since That's What I Like (19,643 points - 165.0M audience - June 24, 2017);
- bad guy (46,300 points): second strongest #2 of the 2019 chart year (strongest #2: ME! - 67,300 points - May 11, 2019);
New peak in points: bad guy, Truth Hurts;
16th week at #1 this decade:
- Old Town Road: 45k sales + 53.5M airplay + 86.2M streams = 58,700 points
- Despacito: 80k sales + 105.0M airplay + 44.6M streams = 51,100 points
- Old Town Road: 12.8% sales + 13.0% airplay + 74.2% streaming
- Despacito: 21.8% sales + 24.5% airplay + 52.7% streaming
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,095
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Post by inverse on Jul 28, 2019 14:28:01 GMT -5
Wait a second Old Town Road went up? How did that happen
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jul 28, 2019 14:28:43 GMT -5
Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - July 27, 2019
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